Horse Antepost

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28 Nov 22 22:01
Date Joined: 28 Jul 12
| Topic/replies: 1,396 | Blogger: gpz6316's blog
Another highly competitive race , the fences are still big at aintree , they brush through them but the horse dont know that only blaklion has carried 11-00 or more of late  . This is borne out in the stats that it is mostly won by horses carrying less than 11-00  , 9/10 . The weight just stops them jumping or is so much effort they cant win . Thats pretty handy as a lot of the fancied runners are carrying over 11-00 . Of those carrying under 11-00 their are genuine reasons to like a few.  At around 30-1 the venetia horse "didero vallis " looks to have it going on .
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Report gpz6316 November 29, 2022 9:15 PM GMT
sixth in the race last year , he comes here on the back of a prep race this time and can be expected to go well I reckon
Report gpz6316 November 30, 2022 9:51 PM GMT
another on a low weight whom looks to be prepped for this and has had a decent amount of support already is "five star getaway " ran le milos to 4 lengths last season only getting 5lb . Had a aintree experience and looks to have had a nice prep run at bangor lto , never asked and christian did a bit last season in these kind of handicaps . A couple to chew over .
Report cobra sam December 1, 2022 1:00 PM GMT
Probly a bad bet as chasing my money back but will back Snow Leopardess max places
Report gpz6316 December 1, 2022 10:02 PM GMT
i dont like snow because of the physical weight she has to carry 11-13 and is a mare ( smaller frame ) trying to jump national fences . prolly a bad bet . do your own thing sam
Report M13 December 1, 2022 11:20 PM GMT
Only five carrying under 11-00

Domain De Lisle 33-1 ish
Five Star Getaway 10-1
Now where or when 33-1
Percussion 20-1
Didera Vallis 22-1
Minella Bobo 80-1

So for stats followers its a good looking book.

From a personable standpoint (sorry to bore, its only an average lunatic opinion)

i was looking at the entries last week (27th ) and had a v small bet on The top weight (stop laughing) De Raher Counter at 50-1 for a few reasons i have now managed to talk myself out of.

In deed my first thoughts were NTDavies knows how to train a horse to win this. Won this 3 times since 2010

He relies on Fantastikas it was 23 for small amounts on here, best priced 18-1 with book may yet back this or something else on the day. All 11 stone 8lb of him Lol.

Good Luck.
Report gpz6316 December 2, 2022 10:32 PM GMT
i understand your scepticism towards the weight trend m13 . As  the cold has prevented any rain in the north all week , that would definitely side towards class horses . I,m not  a slave and even rarely look at trends ( you end up with the worst value ) , but , the weight does seem significant and the horses i pointed out have good prices . best of luck
Report Autocue December 3, 2022 9:32 AM GMT
I like your bet on Didero Vallis. Weak on here (currently 27/1) but 10lb lower than when sixth last year and Lucy is a good claimer. Touch wood it jumps the fences well - showed a lot of power at Bechers last year.
Report gpz6316 December 3, 2022 10:51 PM GMT
something i picked up on but didnt register in my head at the time was the way that the class horses were outspeeding the low-weights . 5star couldn't live with the pace whilst didero vallis could for a mile then was quickly beaten . Its got to be soft to blunt class , was my take from this
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