Champions Day Ascot

I’d imagine it’ll be good/soft with some soft places looking at the forecast

Looks like it won’t be anywhere near as soft as previous years so should make everything more competitive

Forecast changed again. So maybe good/soft ground but could be good looking at it

hopefully it will be much better than 2020 when geldings won the 2 big races

Always a great days racing AT

to be honest I miss the straight 10f Champion Stakes run at Newmarket - it was something a bit different to yet-another-middle-distance-at-Ascot.

I also think the QEII was better when it was the weekend before the Arc - the mile chanmpionship should be run on good ground and there has been some strange winners since it moved.

Agree AT

Yep definitely on the soft side judging by the forecast I trust. Good/soft soft in places for sure

Some rain forecast Thursday evening but the rest of the week looking dry.
Hopefully no worse than good to soft.

good to soft this morning - Straight: 7.1, Round: 6.9, on Tuesday at 3pm.

not much rain forecast but there's little drying up at this time of year so GtS looks likely

Good ground looks likely - not good for my antepost positions.

Good to Soft, Soft (in places)
   
Straight: 6.8, Round: 6.5, on Thursday at 8am.

ground looks almost certain to be the fastest for Champions Day since 2016

With the only genuine Gp1 sprinter, Highfield Princess, an absentee this year's Champions Sprint looks a champions race in name only. Even last year's winner, Creative Force, is no better than a Gp2 horse at a push. Sure, if he can recapture last year's best he'll have a good chance against a field of largely Gp3 runners and worse. I still see him as a poor price as we haven't quite seen that level from him this year. The one I think has shown the best form this year is Kinross. I don't see the shorter trip as a negative and reckon he's a touch of value. The one negative, for me, is him having quite a busy time of it recently. Whether he will show up in the same form again is a question mark.

The one I'll be backing is Tenebrism. I had her on a decent figure for her Cheveley Park win last year but she hasn't been anywhere even close to that since, even when winning in France. I still believe that figure was correct and see no reason to downgrade it, so maybe that run was a one off, or she's regressed as a 3yo. However, there also has to be the possibility that O'Brien has simply been running her over the wrong trip/s. As a 2yo there was always a doubt about her staying a mile and it's a bit baffling that they've persevered with her at that distance and 7f until now. At the price I think it's worth a go that she will show last year's best form back at 6f, and that probably would be good enough.

I want very soft ground; Trueshan to win and Baaeed to withdraw.

Figgis on tenebrism do you actually have her running a good race this season time wise? I haven’t tbh I know she won the group 1 in France but I haven’t seen enough myself to warrant a wager here

Harry, no her times have been absolute garbage this season. Actually, time-wise, I have her last 5 runs all within 2lbs of each other. Even though she won the Gp1 in France it was a poor race on the clock. There has to be a possibility she hasn't trained on. It's just that watching some of her races this year, especially her latest, she did enough to suggest she may still be capable of showing her best back at 6f. At the price, in what I consider a poor Gp1, I think she's worth risking.

Harry, how did you interpret the performance of Modern Games at Woodbine? Do you think he improved or just ran his race against a weak field?

i'd give her a good chance at 6f - they've been persisting at a mile to try to get big 8f winner on her sire's CV.

i forgive the last run on very soft - she's won all her other races at 7f and less.

Art Power hacked up in Ireland LTO (GP3) by an easy 3Ls.
Went off the 3/1 jolly for this last year when 4th.Drawn
20/20 then btn 2L+.1st 3 came from stalls 5,2 & 4.Was also
a close up 4th btn 1L 2 yrs ago as a 3yr old.Looked in good
shape over in Ireland,my idea ofthe wnr here.
   GL ALL

Fair enough figgis. I think she’s been disappointing. I suppose the thing I haven’t liked much is she just looks asleep. I rated that cheviely park a top race at the time. I’ve backed Flotus a couple of times since but she hasn’t gone on and I’m not sure I gave the race to much credit at the time. She isn’t for me I do like 3 tomorrow in that race but garrus is grade 2 horse, naval pier I’m not getting enough odds and art power I’ve missed the price but think he has his chance.


Figgis 14 Oct 22 14:45 Joined: 28 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 9,051 | Blogger: Figgis's blog
Harry, how did you interpret the performance of Modern Games at Woodbine? Do you think he improved or just ran his race against a weak field?

I’m been doing a lot of American work tbh figgis. I like studying the breeders cup. Anyway in regards modern games he got given a good American figure time wise. I thought he beat a horrible field of locals myself. I’ve always quite liked him as an individual, however without being anything special. He beat to some rank horses at woodbine though. Time was decent though at it followed on from good wood where he ran well in slowly run race.
I was very look warm on him for this but having gone back through him today, I don’t mind him, as at least he was surrounded by nice horses at good wood. Ground does seem quite important to him but I see no reason why he can’t run well. I wanted around 13/2 myself as haven’t got him far clear of the revenant.

I quite like in-spiral tomorrow tbh and think she is a fair price with a wide draw maybe the only negative. I didn’t like her run in France but on the back of a break I see he winning well.

Yourself?

Sorry predictive a bit all over the place there but you get the jist

Harry, as you'll probably know from previous posts on here I think Inspiral's reputation is bigger than her ability. I'm certainly not saying she's no good, just that her performances have been no better than we'd get from an average Guineas winner, but she's been elevated to some kind of superstar status in what overall is a poor season. In a typical QE2 I'd think her very beatable, against most of these not so.

As to Modern Games, I have no more than a casual interest in American/Canadian racing. I have never put the effort in required to seriously rate those races and won't be starting now. So I won't pretend I have any major confidence when making assessments. That said, time-wise, MG looked to have improved a few pounds using the run of Mysterious Night as a guide. I know what MN was capable of over here and even if he didn't improve again with this latest win, on the face of it, it seems a comparatively impressive performance from Modern Games. I'll be backing him.

Yeah I like him figgis and in answering your question he is an improver imo some horses that route in distance like he did in the French derby don’t bounce back when coming down back down in trip, his stablemate being an example, however it has done him no harm. I don’t rate Inspiral a superstar myself and have never bet her tbh. This is a weak renewal depth wise but at least these 2 are nice horses so I suppose in a match 9/2 is perfectly fair with no disrespect to the admirable revenant. Not a strong betting heat for me.

Hoping art power wins as had a few peanuts at 20’s not a bet as such but an interest a couple of months ago for the same reasons as penzance above.

I quite like bay bridge tomorrow. Just think he’s a bit big here and I still love that race at sandown against the godsen horse. I rate this race the race of the season with 3 top notchers. I’m there tomorrow so really looking forward to it. Baeed 4 on is very tight against these 2 horses

Harry, I'm in a minority in thinking that Baaeed's winning performances are what we usually get from a typical top class Gp1 performer but again he's been elevated to superstar status in a poor year. I don't rate his York win any higher than many other up to scratch winners of the race. But with the momentum gathering behind his unbeaten run I think people were looking for that one big performance from him so were keen to rate it very highly when he finally delivered one. Where I do think he has been better than some other top performers is he's been doing it consistently, running fast times repeatedly this year with no regressions. I give him big credit for that. Although in the back of my mind I wonder if that would've been the case if he'd faced one other serious rival. He also looks like has a bit more up his sleeve, and maybe he does, but I would've liked that to have been tested by another rival capable of running up to Gp1 standard on the clock this year.

I think if Adayar trained on as a 4yo then he'd have a really good chance of matching and probably beating Baaeed. However, that has to be a major doubt with the problems of getting him to the track this year. I think if Baaeed finally does regress a few pounds (and that's easily understandable after the season he's had) he still beats the vast majority of these. I don't have them anywhere even close to him and in my view he'll need to bomb out for them to get the better of him. I think the one exception is Adayar. Even if he only runs to last year's best then I think Baaeed can't afford to drop off more than a few pounds. Baaeed is quite obviously the most likely winner but I'm backing Adayar as I think it's not too unlikely that he runs to form and Baaeed isn't quite at his best.

I bet the angle with adayar but I was really looking forward to baeed up in trip and can still see him improving more at the distance. I like yourself have never had him as high as the hype would say but the distance is what he wanted and last time was the first time he buried a field. He did drift right that day so it is still interesting. If adayar can perform to his top level we could be in for a right treat tomorrow race wise. I have bay bridge a top notcher with cut in the ground and think he’ll outrun his odds if ok after a problem I presume. The trouble with backing horses like adayar or bay bridge after problems is how they will react when put under pressure I’m sure one of the 2 will likely blow out tomorrow. Anyway not a big betting heat for me.

I’ve been trying to sort this fillie and mare race out for 2 days, it really is a minefield. Brutal

It’ll be the handicap that takes my Dough tomorrow I think. Which is much the easiest race of the day

Get

I’ve been trying to sort this fillie and mare race out for 2 days, it really is a minefield. Brutal

I'm leaving well alone with that one. I rated Emily Upjohn quite highly on her Musidora win and backed her for the Oaks. At the time I thought she was a bit unlucky, but, whether she was or not, as the season unfolded I had cause to revisit that Musidora York card and have since downgraded her. I now think she ran to form in the Oaks and it was a very poor renewal.

I think Trueshan is some value in the stayers event. It's possible he's regressed a bit since the Plate win, but I thought he was given a very poor ride last time, anchored at the back in a race run at an absolute crawl. No surprise he wasn't able to reign the others in after that. At his best I just don't think the others are in the same class and I reckon it was a poor Leger.

Alot of forgiveness is needed with Emily upjohn. I liked her in the king George but she ran like a pig. I still think she's best of these mares and she might look massive at 4/1 after the race. I doubt gosden is just out for the day out with her. We will see I'll have a look at her I'm the paddock and see how she is.

Trueshan is big at nearly 2/1. I didn't like the way he wandered under pressure at Doncaster. Its quite possible they bottomed under the big weight in the plate. He is much the best here. I'm with you on the ledger. I'm tempted by a couple of rags in this but need to sit down with myself tonight and decide how to play the race. It stinks if trueshan doesn't turn up to the party

Baaeed will show how good he really is tomorrow in the Chmpn Stks.
Every horse turns up on top shape,he wins this easy.

I didn't like the way he wandered under pressure at Doncaster

Harry, pretty sure he's done that a bit on more than one occasion when winning, but it always looks worse when a horse does that when getting beat. Anyway, like you say it's possible he was bottomed at Newcastle, but with the ride he was given last time I'm willing to put that forward as the more likely reason he was beaten and have to back him at these odds against these opponents.

I'm a big fan of Adayar and a race with Baaeed over 12f would be great to see if the Derby winner was at his best - but tomorrow I fear he'll just be a pacemaker and we'll see just how good Baaeed is.

A_T, if Adayar isn't the horse he was then, to be fair, any genuine Gp1 horse should be hammering this lot. None of them would figure in a really competitive Gp1. For me, a 9 length beating of any of them would be no better than a 9 length beating of Sir Busker.

I think Baaeed will either win or be pulled-up. But, what had he beaten? Mishriff? A mediocre GP1 winner.

Ok so bets for the day for me
Inspiral
Trawlerman ew
Art power
Baeed and bay bridge 1-2
A tri cast on the balmoral but won’t bother you with that
Enjoy the day, I’m off to see the unbeaten colt

Figgis I think a comprehensive beating of a second-placed Adayar could well see a very high rating

Good to Soft, Soft (in places)
   
Straight: 7.3, Round: 6.7, on Saturday at 8am.

last year:

Good to Soft, Soft (in places)
   
Straight: 7.6 Round: 6.4 on 16-10-2021 at 07:30

2020:

Round: Soft, Heavy (in places) Straight: Soft
   
Stands side:5.4 Centre:5.4 Farside:5.5. Round:4.8 on Saturday at 9am. The readings may be slightly lower than expected due to aeration to the whole track carried out on Tuesday 6/10/20

I've gone for Dubai Honour EW. Second last year in similar ground.

I think a comprehensive beating of a second-placed Adayar could well see a very high rating

A_T, I agree if it appears that Adayar ran to form and that horse gives the others a comprehensive beating. If, however, Adayar runs a long way below his best, as Mishriff did at York, I hope they don't try to rate the winner without taking that into account.

Good money for trueshan in the first. They must think they've got him right

Played Figgis. That trawlerman is a dour stayer imo. Should of made more use of him

Hollie doesn't care who is in her way when she wants track position.

Well done Figgis

Kinross won that well in the end but was the centre of
the track the place to be there?

Trueshan was a good bet today.
Figgis
  wd
   GL

Cheers lads. Shame I changed my view on Emily Upjohn though

How is the going soft?!?!

Shows how the courses over water all year long.

The farmer who lives next door to me is complaining that he can barely get a plough in the ground at the moment as the it is like concrete with 6 inch cracks in it.

In the summer they must water every day it doesn't rain

Justice

Very well done Harry.

Did you have that Harry?

Gutted!

H.C
  wd
   GL

Thought you had the forecast with baaeed

Good just the easiest race of the day to come.
Just sweet believe to pay for the tinned spam on the way home

good run from Adayar over an inadequate trip - perhaps one for the BC Turf and next year

this meeting is now a real menace with all the watering they do at Ascot. no reason it should have been like that today as brandy said it's hardly rained

I feel ill

Too much champagne??

No sweet believer in the last brandy.
Believe it or not im T Total now so it certainly wasn’t  celebrating on champagne especially when your done by an 80/1 rag in the last

Baaeed obviously below par and that shouldn't be held against him. He went into the race after winning 4 Gp1s on the spin, all run in up to par time performances for the grade. He was due a dip in performance and I was a bit surprised it didn't happen sooner. In the end I have yesterday's race a poor Gp1. If Baaeed had been on form I reckon he would've beaten that field by around 5 lengths. But then again so would the likes of Cracksman, Almanzor, Faarhh, etc.

Yeah you can’t hold it against him. It was or looked to my eye desperately hard to make up ground on the going yesterday. He made a run about 3 furlongs out but flattened out quickly. In the end it may of payed to of run the mile race but he wasn’t himself like you say after a tough campaign

Harry, think we got the answer yesterday about how good Modern Games' Woodbine performance was. It seems highly likely he just ran to previous form without improvement, there certainly wasn't any yesterday. Hard to believe how poor some of those American turf races are.

I said it was a poor Champion Stakes but it'll be interesting to see if Stoute can get even more improvement out of Bay Bridge next year like he has with many other 5yos.

I’ll be honest figgis he beat some poor horses in woodbine. I had my doubts tbh. I will say though he is a horse that really doesn’t like cut in the ground but after Inspiral blu the start I thought he had to win but only found the one pace. We are not blessed with many good horses at the moment. I liked bay bridge at sandown but agree it wasn’t a great race form wise. I will say I thought bay bridge blu up but still got the job done which was pleasing. He handled fast ground in the prince of wales but I think he likes the soft going. We will see with him but he’s beatable if short odds just ability wise. I wonder if they turn him out in the Japan cup or breeders cup as he hasn’t had a long season, he will encounter better going again but does go on it

harry callaghan "It was or looked to my eye desperately hard to make up ground on the going yesterday".............bayside boy came from last harry. he made up huge ground. that was a different part of the course to where baeed was running so i will let you off the hook if thats what you mean.

Brain dead apologies meant the round track.

I won’t dig myself in anymore but a lot of horses on the day did not make up ground but like you say and the results say plenty won from the rear.