Horse Antepost

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10 Sep 22 08:34
Date Joined: 27 Jan 06
| Topic/replies: 20,643 | Blogger: A_T's blog
Really surprised to see Vadeni so short at 11/10. Many people thought with a clear run Mishriff would have won the Eclipse. Onesto and Luxembourg are no rags either.
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Report Sandown September 10, 2022 10:30 AM BST
Today’s Irish Champion Stakes is an important trial for the Arc as well as being a prestigious race in its own right. If there is to be a horse other than Baaeed who could win in Paris, I believe that we might see it today.

Vadeni is favourite after his excellent wins in the Prix du Jockey Club and Eclipse where he showed that he has a good turn of foot at the end of races run in goodish times. His RPR was raised to 124 after Chantilly and he was given the same mark after Sandown. His trainer has said that today is his target and although he may not have confirmed that he will go to the Arc, if he wins or goes close today then that may change.I wouldn’t say on breeding that he will be unsuited by 12f.

Luxembourg is the horse which can beat him today and is the one who I believe is a good bet for Longchamp. Some have said that he hasn’t shown good enough figures to be considered yet as an Arc winner. That all depends on what figures you look at.  On his Beresford Stakes performance he produced figures which to me indicate that the horse is capable of being a 130+ horse, which if I’m right, puts him into an Arc winners bracket. He then won the Futurity and was put away as winter Derby favourite. He ran well enough in the 2000 Gns to finish third but thereafter had to be rested. He has continued to be well talked up and on his comeback , which he needed,, showed enough to suggest that he can get back to his best. AOB said that he could improve another 30% , which however you take that, indicates that there is a lot more to come.

Onesto is the third horse who could also run even better in Paris even if he gets beaten today. He won over 12f at Longchamp showing a good turn of foot and if running well today , will be at Longchamp in October.

I have backed Luxembourg for today and for the Arc. If Baaeed turns up in Paris, then he will have to be a saver,, but his Arc odds have drifted somewhat recently suggesting that he is not a  certainty to run.
Report Figgis September 10, 2022 1:33 PM BST
I go against the general view and think this is a poor renewal. Sure, it's deeper than usual and I wouldn't be surprised to see any of 6 from the 7 runners winning, but that's due to there being no genuine Gp1 horse in the field rather than them all being potential champions. Mishriff is the exception, but on my time figures this year he's been running nearly a stone slower than his best performances last year. On last year's form I'd have him winning this easily, whereas on this year's form he could still win but it would be close.

I took a positive view of Vadeni's PDJC winning performance but in hindsight, particularly in on reflection now I'm not sure it was as good as I thought. The Eclipse form was poor and the time was no better than a Listed winning performance, despite the pace picking up from some way out. Maybe Vadeni wasn't seen to best effect that day and it's still possible he could be a champion, but at this price I want more convincing.

The horse I think put up the best performance this year is Broome when winning the Hardwicke. He hasn't shown that since, and at the age of 6 maybe that was the last good run we'll see from him. It's also possible he'll do too much too early today trying to set the race up for Luxembourg and finish well out the back. However, with some books paying 3 places I'll be chucking a few quid at the price in the hope he has a good day and can hang on in there.
Report Figgis September 10, 2022 1:35 PM BST
*particularly in light of the Eclipse,..
Report harry callaghan September 10, 2022 3:10 PM BST
I do like the Irish champion stakes.
Not a great renewal of the race but a competitive look to it betting wise.

I think there is one good one in them.

Vadeni may have disappointed a tad in the eclipse but maybe he had a tougher race than it look in the jockey club, add the ground in and maybe sandown wasn’t so bad. I’ve always like a horse that has prepped for this race but he hasn’t. However I still see stepping forward and around 2.8 he is a good price imo. I make him nearer 4/5 so have to play him.

I have mishriff way below his best and the most concerning thing is he hasn’t been running on. He’s had enough, although he clearly retains some ability, he hasn’t looked as good.

I only fancied 3 in this as a potential bet. Alenquer has been a better 4 year old and under ground he likes, i can see him getting in the 3. I think I overestimated the tattersalls gold cup, unlike me but I liked it as race at the time.  It hasn’t really worked out

So I’ve backed Vadeni but have also played onesto. He comes out well on the stuff I’ve worked on in my handicapping so have dabbled a bit with him and a tad on the forecast and tri cast but I expect vadeni to get this done and I think he’s a good price hear against these horses, with me personally forgiving him the eclipse run.
Report A_T September 10, 2022 3:31 PM BST
Mishriff for me - at his best or near he should win this
Report Sandown September 10, 2022 3:38 PM BST
Mishriff absolutely hated the ground. He was never travelling at any stage - John Gosden, trainer.

Mishriff can stay the extra 300m in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, the only doubt is the ground as he is a good-actioned horse - Ioritz Mendizabal, jockey.
Report A_T September 10, 2022 3:38 PM BST
I like Onesto but the Arc is his target - he's a 12f horse and this is really a prep race
Report penzance September 10, 2022 3:44 PM BST
Interesting that They're dropping Onesto
back in trip after his win LTO & also
taking Vadeni on again.
Around 14s on here.
Report Figgis September 10, 2022 3:53 PM BST
Well done Sandown. A nice position to be in now. That said, do you see that as Arc winning form? I don't, even in a weak year.
Report A_T September 10, 2022 3:57 PM BST
Haven't seen the head-on but Vadeni seemed to take a strange route - didn't look to get hampered though. Ran more or less to the Eclipse form with Mishriff. Neither look like Arc contenders.

Onesto the one to take for the Arc here for me - proven over C&D. AO'B has done very well to get Luxembourg back to win this but I think today was his day not at Longchamp
Report penzance September 10, 2022 4:04 PM BST
Report Try My Best September 10, 2022 4:06 PM BST
Yet another fantastic training performance by the great man.
Report penzance September 10, 2022 4:07 PM BST
Certainly was.
Report A_T September 10, 2022 4:10 PM BST
nothing much to worry Haggis there though
Report FELTFAIR September 10, 2022 4:10 PM BST
And the jockey.
Report Try My Best September 10, 2022 4:11 PM BST
Report Sandown September 10, 2022 5:32 PM BST
do you see that as Arc winning form?

Figgis. It depends on whether Baaeed turns up or not. No if he does. Maybe if he doesn't. I'll need a bit of time to assess this, but mission accomplished anyway as far as the A/P market is concerned.
Report Figgis September 10, 2022 6:05 PM BST
It looked a weak race to me beforehand and the result is as poor a renewal as I can remember for a long time. If they'd gone slow there would be some leeway to say that the form could be better than it looks. But they definitely didn't go slow and in a hard fought win Luxembourg still only managed to finish 2 and 3/4 lengths ahead of the very ordinary Stone Age, who had been on pacemaking duty. Even without Baaed in the race that looks a long way from Arc winning form. Although I suppose in an underwhelming season anything is possible.
Report Try My Best September 10, 2022 7:31 PM BST
Not a bad performance beating Broome by about 14 lengths.
Report A_T September 10, 2022 8:10 PM BST
The form is better than the Eclipse - but obviously well short of Baaeed at York. I'd think of the runners today only Onesto is a certain Arc starter. If Baaeed turns up they are all racing for second.

Not a bad performance beating Broome by about 14 lengths.

it was 6 1/2 lengths. Poor old Broome - missed the break and rushed forward to help make the pace - his race was done in that moment. They should retire him now he's done enough.
Report Try My Best September 10, 2022 8:50 PM BST
Yes you are right. It was dropping out the back of my televison box so fast it looked worse than it was. Broome can still win races in the right grade and at the right distance so wouldn't totally write him off just yet.
Report Figgis September 10, 2022 9:00 PM BST
Yes and no doubt we'll hear when the right race was after the event.
Report lingbleed September 11, 2022 12:44 AM BST
I find it hard to think Luxembourg is finished improving. He has had only 6 runs, given his injury and the fact he won today, i'm pretty sure this was his prep for the Ark. The fact it won is a bonus. I also find it hard to believe he has peaked, the best is probably yet to come, Ryan said he was still green.
When has AoB had he champion 2 year old this fresh in his 3 yr campaign, if he wins the Ark he'll be champion 3 yr. I like him for the Ark; wish i had them 20's, well done sandown.
Report brigust1 September 11, 2022 9:17 AM BST
Yes, well done Sandown. To me Luxembourg was the 'hope' horse in the race. It didn't look an outstanding renewal where the result would affect the Champion Stakes or the Arc. Unless Luxembourg won, of course. Which he did. I like the way Ryan saved something till the very end then began to draw away. There is clearly more to come. And afterwards AOB said his original plan was going to be the 2000Gns, Derby, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes then the Arc. So I now see no reason why he won't go to France. Will certainly put some life into what, without Baaeed, looks not a great affair on paper.
Report Sandown September 12, 2022 12:28 PM BST
My post-race perspective is primarily about whether this was a good prep for the Arc rather than judging the race itself and on that score I believe it was in that I believe that Luxembourg will improve again for another 3 weeks to reach peak fitness, and for the step up in trip to be a plus. Both Moore and AOB were very positive in their comments. Whether he can beat Baaeed should that horse turn up is more questionable as there is a clear ratings gap between the two. But that is another issue for another day.

The majority of Arc winners do improve their ratings and those that don't are generally speaking well in front to start with on ratings going into the race for them not to have to improve to win. Luxembourg has been given an RPR of 124 by the RP although personally I would give him a couple of pounds or more. The TS rating given is 82 which might be in line with final time specialists assessments and if just using that to judge the race by then ,of course, it could be downgraded as a top form trial.Personally,I would give the winner a higher time  rating,however.We shouldn't overlook that the ground was quite soft, and whilst he won on it, I believe that Luxembourg could be better on better ground. All in all,I would be hopeful that Luxembourg could achieve a rating of 130 which in any other year would make him a clear favourite in my book.

Certainly, Onesto ran a good race too and will appreciate a return to 12f. I would think that there is too big a discrepancy in their prices for the Arc at 6.8 and 17.5 respectively on BF. Onesto is good enough to run into a place at the very least but I doubt that he has the same potential for improvement as the winner.

Thanks brigust1.
Report brandyontherocks September 13, 2022 9:06 PM BST
Looked like another steadily run race where they turned the taps on from 3 furlongs out.

Was surprised and impressed that, that sort of race suited Luxembourg.

He stayed on very well to out battle Onesto which might suggest he could stay the extra distance of the Arc.

But it wouldn't surprise me if they opted for the Ascot race.

Vadeni would definitely have finished much closer with a clearer run. And the proximity of Stone Age makes it very hard to rate this race very highly.

I have Onesto (20/1), Al Hakeem (34/1), Luxembourg (18/1), Westover (19/1) running for me in the Arc. But to be honest, this season has been so average I think a host of horses have a shout in Europed Premier race.
Report Figgis September 14, 2022 2:54 PM BST
Brandyontherocks, looking at the result and margins you'd have thought that the pace must've been slow but it was actually a good one. That's why such a comparatively poor final time is disappointing. That, along with those narrow beaten margins and Stone Age finishing up close after his earlier exertions, particularly on soft ground where you'd expect the margins to be bigger in a top class well run race. These are the worst supposedly Gp1 3yos I've seen in quite a while.
Report impossible123 September 19, 2022 1:04 PM BST
Would Baaeed have won this race? I think he's more likely to win the Ascot version given the lack of quality. I hope he does otherwise his stock will plummet.
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