Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)

Last year I doubted Baaeed was as good as some people were saying. I backed Palace Pier against him in the QE2 and got my fingers burned. On that piece of form it's virtually impossible to see him beaten here. However, at this kind of price in a Gp1 I want a horse to prove it can run a proper Gp1 speed figure. After the QE2 result I fully expected Baaeed to have qualified but I still couldn't get him higher than a solid Gp2 performance on the clock. That isn't to say he isn't still capable of a better one. With Crowley producing him late in his races it's entirely possible he has only done enough to win and can run faster if needed. Also, Haggas is a trainer who I normally associate doing better with maturer horses, and if Baaeed makes just normal improvement then I don't believe he'll be beaten today. Added to that, for me, this looks a very weak renewal as far as strength in depth goes.

So that said, there doesn't look too many reasons to oppose him. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen if he's improved from 3 to 4 and on last year's form there is one horse in the field I think can give him a race. Real World ran a figure at Royal Ascot that told me he was up to winning a solid Gp2 event, which he went on to do after winning lesser events easily. He ran poorly on the dirt earlier this year and there's no proof yet that he'll be the same horse this season back on turf. At this price I'm willing to take that risk. I don't bet each way too often but think he's worth a win and place here.