Craven Stakes/Greenham Stakes

Native Trail might've regressed since last year and Coroebus could improve, but as things stood at the end of last season I had Coroebus a good 13lbs lower than his stablemate. NT may only need to repeat last year's best to win the Guineas. Coroebus looks more of a Derby type to me but would need to improve again before I'd consider him a likely winner.

Just to play devils advocate for one moment regards NT. Could it be said that he's not really beaten much and I know you can only beat what is in front of you. Struggled to get past the Balding nag on the July Course and took a while to get going in the Dewhurst against another sub par field imo. I was there that day and he dwarfed his opponents in the paddock and just looked physically better than anything else. I think his best performance was in the National Stakes but was Point Lonsdale over the top at that stage of the season and he was very short in the betting to beat NT on the day and was obviously expected to win. O'Brien thinks better ground will suit PL better and Luxembourg's form can be tied in with NT through Bayside Boy who they both kicked out of the way at Newmarket and Doncaster respectively. I just don't understand the Coroebus entry if they think NT is the second coming. A smaller, strong looking more rounded Dubawi looking colt who I thought was very impressive in the Autumn stakes with his latest work out pleasing connections. I know we have to solve the puzzle and it may be that NT is by far the best of them but at 6/4 and by Oasis Dream I'm not sure that represents great value. Would I lay him? Certainly not.

Pinatubo very different circumstances - no prep race in a Guineas delayed until June. And I don't know why being sired by Oasis Dream is a negative.

NT does take a while to get into top gear; his best asset is asserting his superiority in the last 1f.

I think it's fair to say Pinatubo was a better traveller, but did not see out the Guineas trip.

Power won the Irish 2000 for Oasis Dream - Aqlaam won the Moulin. There may be reasons to oppose NT but I don't see the sire as one of them.

He looks the real deal to me. C&D winner in the Craven - 3 secs faster than the Wood Ditton on the same day - I'll happily take 6/4 on the day - or evens.

Aqlaam was a 4 year old when he won the Moulin and didn't win over a mile at 3.

You are missing the point I am trying to make. NT has just won over a mile albeit beating a winner of a below average novice stakes by 3 1/2 lengths. My point is about his sire Oasis Dream not siring a top class miler since it's been at stud and whether or not that has any bearing on the race in 2 weeks time. Invincible Spirit was in the same boat until along came Magna Grecia to give him his first 2000g winner. NT may do the same and is obviously very short to prove you right. One 2000G win amongst Oasis Dream and Invincible Spirit stock over a lot of seasons is hardly emphatic. The reason in the main is that they sire offspring that are better over shorter.

Yes AT I know but I'm talking about a top class miler. Even Kingman by Invincible Spirit didn't win a Guineas although establishing himself over that distance later on in the season in small fields and basically beating up Night of Thunder all sumnmer. I think NT is a stunning looking animal and as I say he may well be streets clear of his opposition but surely breeding is relevant when we are talking about classic winners and the reality is that OD has not produced a top class miler. It's just a point for discussion.

I will never admit to that AT.

The Ballydoyle machine just starting to get going now. I can see NT rolling around like a drunken sailor in the dip on fast going changing his legs on numerous occasions as Luxembourg glides past him and outstays them all as they hit the rising ground.

the sun racing had a killer stat on trial races, that's why they were against the favourite, godolphin have lot of firepower, they set it up perfectly for their two runners to fight out the finish