Craven Stakes/Greenham Stakes

Native Trail is in the Craven tomorrow, but Coroebus has been taken out. The latter is not in the Greenham either instead going straight to the 2000G, according to Mr Appleby.

Assuming Native Trail wins impressively tomorrow (given previous form) and heads for the 2000G will Coroebus follow suit? Or could Coroebus  be re-routed to france instead? Coroebus is 8/1 for the French version.

Native Trail might've regressed since last year and Coroebus could improve, but as things stood at the end of last season I had Coroebus a good 13lbs lower than his stablemate. NT may only need to repeat last year's best to win the Guineas. Coroebus looks more of a Derby type to me but would need to improve again before I'd consider him a likely winner.

NT looked very impressive - if anything can beat him in the Guineas it must be very good

Just to play devils advocate for one moment regards NT. Could it be said that he's not really beaten much and I know you can only beat what is in front of you. Struggled to get past the Balding nag on the July Course and took a while to get going in the Dewhurst against another sub par field imo. I was there that day and he dwarfed his opponents in the paddock and just looked physically better than anything else. I think his best performance was in the National Stakes but was Point Lonsdale over the top at that stage of the season and he was very short in the betting to beat NT on the day and was obviously expected to win. O'Brien thinks better ground will suit PL better and Luxembourg's form can be tied in with NT through Bayside Boy who they both kicked out of the way at Newmarket and Doncaster respectively. I just don't understand the Coroebus entry if they think NT is the second coming. A smaller, strong looking more rounded Dubawi looking colt who I thought was very impressive in the Autumn stakes with his latest work out pleasing connections. I know we have to solve the puzzle and it may be that NT is by far the best of them but at 6/4 and by Oasis Dream I'm not sure that represents great value. Would I lay him? Certainly not.

i share similar views on native trail ,a worthy fav yes but he was fully entitled to win the craven as the betting suggested , charlie app says better to go to a gunfight with 2 guns rather than 1 maybe so but it suggests to me native trail isnt that far if anything in front of corebus they would know better than me obviously , pinatubo was turned over in the guineas  after looking a possible world beater at 2 .6/4 i can resist no problem .

Pinatubo very different circumstances - no prep race in a Guineas delayed until June. And I don't know why being sired by Oasis Dream is a negative.

For me, Native Trail was a faster 2yo than Pinatubo. Since 2000, over further than sprint distances I've rated five 2yos as fast, or faster than, NT. Four of them went on to win the Guineas and the other was beaten a nose. I can perfectly understand the opposition to him at a short price, but from my perspective I'll be happy to take 6/4 on the day.

NT does take a while to get into top gear; his best asset is asserting his superiority in the last 1f.

I think it's fair to say Pinatubo was a better traveller, but did not see out the Guineas trip.

Oasis Dream leading Europe group 1 sprint sire not mile sire and son of another sprinter Green Desert and has had 18 years to sire a top class miler. To my recollection he hasn't yet. This horse may buck the trend like Invincible Spirit did with Magna Grecia and he has done nothing wrong but 6/4 not for me for the breeze up purchase.

Power won the Irish 2000 for Oasis Dream - Aqlaam won the Moulin. There may be reasons to oppose NT but I don't see the sire as one of them.

He looks the real deal to me. C&D winner in the Craven - 3 secs faster than the Wood Ditton on the same day - I'll happily take 6/4 on the day - or evens.

Well Power beat Foxtrot Romeo by a length in the Irish 2000G Guineas after finishing second last at Newmarket in Camelot's 2000 Guineas. The 2012 Irish Guineas resembled a selling race dressed up as a Classic it was so bad. This game is about opinions but I would hardly say that result proved that Oasis Dream was a go to sire to produce top class milers. Power a top class miler?. Not for me and good luck with your Guineas bet on NT at 6-4 - Evens.

Aqlaam was a 4 year old when he won the Moulin and didn't win over a mile at 3.

I'm not the slightest concerned Native Trail will not stay the Guineas mile. If he's beaten it will be by a better horse, not outstayed. I'm also not concerned about the challenges from Ireland in particular Point Lonsdale; Luxembourg will run a big race, and better further than 1m.

I believe Coroebus is the most likely danger (if he's not gassy) to Native Trail.

You are missing the point I am trying to make. NT has just won over a mile albeit beating a winner of a below average novice stakes by 3 1/2 lengths. My point is about his sire Oasis Dream not siring a top class miler since it's been at stud and whether or not that has any bearing on the race in 2 weeks time. Invincible Spirit was in the same boat until along came Magna Grecia to give him his first 2000g winner. NT may do the same and is obviously very short to prove you right. One 2000G win amongst Oasis Dream and Invincible Spirit stock over a lot of seasons is hardly emphatic. The reason in the main is that they sire offspring that are better over shorter.

Oasis Dream also sired Midday winner of G1s over 10f and 12f.

Yes AT I know but I'm talking about a top class miler. Even Kingman by Invincible Spirit didn't win a Guineas although establishing himself over that distance later on in the season in small fields and basically beating up Night of Thunder all sumnmer. I think NT is a stunning looking animal and as I say he may well be streets clear of his opposition but surely breeding is relevant when we are talking about classic winners and the reality is that OD has not produced a top class miler. It's just a point for discussion.

well you're not going to admit that Power and Alqaam were top class milers so little point in continuing this. You need to prepare yourself for NT beating the Ballydoyle colts. 

I will never admit to that AT.

Plenty of 2000 Guineas winners have been sired by a horse with no previous "top class" milers to their name. I don't think it's relevant and seems like clutching at straws.

The Ballydoyle machine just starting to get going now. I can see NT rolling around like a drunken sailor in the dip on fast going changing his legs on numerous occasions as Luxembourg glides past him and outstays them all as they hit the rising ground.

The winning times were all above standard. Truly good ground, I hope. I hope the best horse wins the main gig tomorrow with no hard luck story or excuse for any. Native Trail is 2.42 - biggest he's ever been for a while.

the sun racing had a killer stat on trial races, that's why they were against the favourite, godolphin have lot of firepower, they set it up perfectly for their two runners to fight out the finish

good win for Native Trail in Ireland - did his usual thing of asserting in the last furlong - might be even better further