Horse Antepost
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My favourite Haydock race on the yearly calendar and all being well, i will be there this Saturday. Ground has currently changed ( was Soft, good to soft in places ) following persistent rain over the weekend into this morning and is more or less heavy and with more rain to come Tuesday into Wednesday, it looks like being a right old slog. The race doesn't quite have the same feel without last years main selection ( and eventual 3rd THE TWO AMIGOS ) but if most of the protagonists from todays 5 day declarations turn up, it looks likely to be a decent renewal.
I've already played in the ante post markets and more on that in a minute, but the Patten of the race currently, depends on the participation of the current top weight BRISTOL DE MAI who is set to shoulder 11stone 12lb and i would think connections of the remaining runners would hope that he turns up with the ground likely to be the testing conditions he loves.
Last years winner LORD DU MESNIL looks set to defend his title and is 7lb worse off with the second ACHILLE who he beat by half a length, he seems to have been brought along with this race in mind again and i expect him to confirm last years running. BLAKLION has been raised a stone and is back on the same mark as when a decent 6th in last years national and looks set to face exactly the same conditions, following his facile win at haydock last time. Of the others SAM BROWN and FORTESCUE lock horns again following there 2nd and 3rd behind ROYAL PAGAILLE in the peter marsh ( LORD DU MESNIL was 6th ) COMMODORE looks typical venetia williams material, ENQARDE looks to push on following his route in the tommy whittle ( 9lbs higher ) and THE GALLOPING BEAR faces a step up in grade following his victory under a big weight in the surrey national.
SECRET REPRIEVE missed out on a place by one in last years national and ran well, when defending his crown in the welsh equivalent. A lack of a previous run i feel was his undoing there and if he is to get in this year, then not only does he need to win on Saturday, but he needs to do it well, as he was dropped 2lb and as 145 was the qualifying weight last year, he needs a decent penalty. Off only 10stone 5lb ( should the top weight stand his ground ) i think he his the most likely winner and if i had not already played, i would still take the current 4-1 on offer as i think he has a lot in his favour here.
Current plays,
SECRET REPRIEVE ( little each way ) @ 9-1 with HILLS on 1st betting show and each way @ 7-1 with SPORTING INDEX
LORD DU MESNIL ( little each way ) @ 20-1 with HILLS on 1st betting show
I've already played in the ante post markets and more on that in a minute, but the Patten of the race currently, depends on the participation of the current top weight BRISTOL DE MAI who is set to shoulder 11stone 12lb and i would think connections of the remaining runners would hope that he turns up with the ground likely to be the testing conditions he loves.
Last years winner LORD DU MESNIL looks set to defend his title and is 7lb worse off with the second ACHILLE who he beat by half a length, he seems to have been brought along with this race in mind again and i expect him to confirm last years running. BLAKLION has been raised a stone and is back on the same mark as when a decent 6th in last years national and looks set to face exactly the same conditions, following his facile win at haydock last time. Of the others SAM BROWN and FORTESCUE lock horns again following there 2nd and 3rd behind ROYAL PAGAILLE in the peter marsh ( LORD DU MESNIL was 6th ) COMMODORE looks typical venetia williams material, ENQARDE looks to push on following his route in the tommy whittle ( 9lbs higher ) and THE GALLOPING BEAR faces a step up in grade following his victory under a big weight in the surrey national.
SECRET REPRIEVE missed out on a place by one in last years national and ran well, when defending his crown in the welsh equivalent. A lack of a previous run i feel was his undoing there and if he is to get in this year, then not only does he need to win on Saturday, but he needs to do it well, as he was dropped 2lb and as 145 was the qualifying weight last year, he needs a decent penalty. Off only 10stone 5lb ( should the top weight stand his ground ) i think he his the most likely winner and if i had not already played, i would still take the current 4-1 on offer as i think he has a lot in his favour here.
Current plays,
SECRET REPRIEVE ( little each way ) @ 9-1 with HILLS on 1st betting show and each way @ 7-1 with SPORTING INDEX
LORD DU MESNIL ( little each way ) @ 20-1 with HILLS on 1st betting show
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Ground conditions now currently heavy. soft in places. It was raining when i woke at 7-30am and must have been for 2 or 3 hours previous, it stopped around 8am and it has been dry and quite pleasant since. More rain is forecast overnight into the early hours of Wednesday, an then again during the afternoon. Thursday into Friday is then predominantly dry, before what looks like a very wet band of weather moving in. Hopefully will go ahead, but don't like that Friday forecast..
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Forecast has been different today from the one i saw on Monday and it has been steady persistent rain since midday up to 2-30 and i would guess that there is a bit more at least yet to come, looking at the sky. looking at tonight into 4am tomorrow, storm looks likely to bring another drenching and probably in the lap of the gods.
11 declared now, (General prices ) 11/4 Secret Reprieve, 11/2 Sam Brown, 15/2 Enqarde 8/1 Blaklion, 8/1 Bristol De Mai, 10/1 The Galloping Bear, 12/1 Time To get up, 12/1 Mint Condition, 14/1 Lord Du Mesnil, 20/1 Sidi Ismael, and 25/1 Kalooki. |
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Hoping to attend tomorrow as well but concerned at the moment. So intermittent heavy downpours. Not sure how much the course can take.
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8am inspection
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8am inspection has been called now Saturday morning due to threat of further rain. Tellwright said he was confident of racing going ahead on Thursday, but has called the inspection due to the rain. It has been really steady to heavy from 9-30am up to midday so far today, but it has stopped now and it much brighter. although i would expect a further shower or two. The problem is more rain is now forecast from around 8am in the morning and it must be borderline raceable. Sadly a typical p**s north west week here, 95% rain and f**k all else..
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Felt for bristol, gallant run under that weight, totally lifeless run from the selection, could have jumped the fences quicker myself...
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