By:
Good post Mac. No more Antepost for me, as wasted a couple of quid on Copperhead already.
If I was having another just now, it would be from this lot.... Screaming Colours Time To Get Up Ramses De Teille The Big Dog |
By:
You've had some good AP shouts this season Fab.
|
By:
Thanks Mac, yeah going ok so far, but those AP’s always risky, especially this race for me, with Copperhead par for the course.
Good luck with Drake |
By:
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/fahey-predicts-massive-performance-from-welsh-national-hope-the-big-dog/525915
^ The Big Dog an intended runner |
By:
congrats on a thorough inspection of the field . Anyone that delves deeply like yourself must surely have a great chance of solving a race you clearly look forward to . I guess the big question with drake is the wind op , he may have improved for it and is certainly layed out for this . The last run reads very well , staying on without being put in the race etc . He,s been campaigned for a big pot both last year (4th) and the previous (2nd) midlands national . The wind op needs to have improved him imo to win . Hes gonna go close , is a great shout and I wish you the best of luck .
|
By:
I hope your right gpz, gl yourself if having a play.
|
By:
The one I'm drawn to is Time To Get Up. Proven stamina and clearly didn't like the national fences last time. With that being said I haven't had a proper study up. Today's racing isn't up to much so I'll have an in-depth study later. Excellent write-up GI MAC.
|
By:
Can`t argue with the logic behind Captain Drake but will need a lot to drop out to get in methinks. Having said that I said the same about Secret Reprieve last year.
|
By:
It will be close I think Feltfair, my hunch was around position 18 or 19. Stake back if he's balloted out was my thinking.
ty FatPunt. Time To Get Up is very interesting, the form of his Midlands National win is red hot, and his stamina is proven. Trainer did say the big race was his main target in an early season stable tour. That would be my concern, that this is not his main target. |
By:
9/12 aged 6-8
7/12 top 3 betting 3/12 fav won 5/12 won lto 11/12 ran within 49 days 8/12 ran at chepstow 5/12 won over 28f or more 11/12 min 5 chase starts 11/12 rated 131 or higher 11/12 min 2 runs current season 6/12 won current season (The Stats Don,t Lie) Another long shortlist GI .... always the same this far out,good write up. Those top two set a high bar ratings wise,not seen any definitive plans for either,just where they go with them is probably a question for another day. The single piece of form that gave RP an OR of 166 still eludes me,with the mauling at Chelt still fresh in the mind,anything that travels over the water bears close inspection. 9/12 .... Carried a maximum of 10-10lb,the 3 that defied this stat were GC contenders,quite a strong stat if the weights do rise significantly,plenty of fancied horses are wrong if they all stood their ground above,unlikely as that would seem. Has this race changed in its complexion over the years? Without delving into a little history,I for one would have been looking for older horses with proven stamina,especially when normal winter conditions prevail here.Mountainous and RDM upheld that in recent renewals,however both times it was attritional stuff,which might play a part in our thinking if this dry spell continues. Without those two old stagers,no other horse older than 9 has managed the victory in those last 12 runnings,not what I would have thought when looking back over this race from days gone by. What about the course itself,such an undulating track when seen head-on,with a gradual rise from the home turn to the finnishing line,up that seemingly never-ending home straight.Exeter and Carlisle spring to mind despite being right handed,Bangor might have some similarities,any others spring to mind? .... are they a factor in our thoughts pre-race. Just a cursory glance through them,there are a few notebook jobs in there. If there is a better handicapped horse than Potters Corner ..... I,m all ears.How that bugger gets in off 132 will remain one of lifes mysteries,none too shabby at HQ a few days back,on ground that might not been ideal,if the weights do rise he could be swinging away with around 10-02lb,I can hear them singing in the Valleys now. Way too early for me,just getting it on in December might be a result,we will see. |
By:
After promising myself not to have another Antepost, bet Ramses De Teille on Friday at 25’s. (Still 25’s with Fred’s)
Be adding two probably from the other three I mentioned. |
By:
from geegeez
Key Welsh National Betting Trends 19/19 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before 19/19 – Raced within the last 7 weeks 19/19 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences) 17/19 – Aged 9 or younger 17/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out 15/19 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight 14/19 – Aged 8 or younger 13/19 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight 13/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting 12/19 – Irish bred 12/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences 10/19 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before 8/19 – Won last time out 7/19 – Unplaced favourites 6/19 – French bred 6/19 – Had run in the Welsh National before 6/19 – Ran at Chepstow last time out 4/19 – Winning favourites 2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard 2/19 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill 2/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 9/1 |
By:
Excellent work Luckyme .... Thanks for posting.
Quite a few at the top of the market might need to break some recent stats to figure. Just like the formbook,utilising stats are surely in the eye of the beholder. Might be a little fun to put some stat qualifiers up once that final field is known. Always a tough puzzle to solve,any help is very welcome. |
By:
I've tried to have a look through this field gi mac , but , its too vast . for me i need to wait till its a manageable level . having got through halfish , i,m very disappointed to be siding "with ask me early" at 5-1 fook joe public would see that in 5 seconds . anyhow see what transpires and ill give it another go nearer the time
|
By:
It doesn't look like Ask Me early takes part gpz, hopefully you've not backed him, recent schooling accident has ruled him out.
|
By:
Native river an intended runner, so no rise in the weights...
|
By:
I’ve just laid off my 33/1 on Potters Corner at 29/1 on here.
I thought I was in a great position with most firms 16/1, but he’ll be 8lb out of the weights with Native River so I’m just happy to get my money back. I was adamant this hadn’t been trying and that a decent run in the cross country would put him spot on for this. Shame. |
By:
no bet gi i,m leaving it for now with a good idea about the contenders from your excellent thread . I will say i,m slipping away from drake , two failed big pot bids and generally wind op not a positive . i feel he has already tried to his maximum . think theirs gonna be a fly in the ointment , rather than the stand up form yours has with a plus from the op giving him a few pounds . anyhow just postulation and floating thoughts from my point of view .
|
By:
on the other side he has the experience etc . difficult to figure
|
By:
JB1 ... In normal times you are correct,however allowances brought in for covid appear to still be in place.
If the 3lb for no sauna/3lb for body protector are still valid,he actually is fine.Add in Tudor,s claim if he gets the gig,by my reckoning he would have 9-13lb in that scenario. https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/weight-allowance-should-stay/182917 John Gosden highlighting it above with Strad If the above is tosh,don,t hesitate anyone,I won,t take it personally. Certainly in proper winter ground,another factor worth considering for handicapping students. |
By:
Early thoughts......Deise Aba
|
By:
With N/river running some of those at the bottom end are going to be carrying 6-8Lb more than they should be.If you need 6-7LB in hand to win this then it makes there task very difficult unless thay claim to get nearer to their proper h'cap mark.
|
By:
Iwilldoit 134 in reality will be racing off his new mark of 140, Hillsixteen on 132 has been raised to 142 so in effect will be racing off 140.Potters Corner raised to 138 in off 132 here but with 3LB claim will in effect be 1LB ok although his best 3 runs lately have been in the x country which i think should have its own H'cap ratings.
|
By:
early pick for me Discordantly but will wait mainly for the day to see going etc
|
By:
well I've come down on one i,m fairly confident about gi mac . i,m gonna be on " iwilldoit " 12-1 at Ladbrokes down from 25-1 , won 3 of 2 chases . pissed it over course last time out without being fancied 12-1 in a 10 runner race . trainers based in Glamorgan prolly very close to Christian Williams who won it two years ago . I don't see any negatives , 4lb out the weights wont matter a jot . he's trading at 12.5 on bf so the price is very tight , suggesting a strong confidence normally a Ladbrokes 12-1 would equate to a bf 20-1 lots to like . Have a good one merry xmas
|
By:
Good Luck with your bet gpz, trainer very happy with the horse in a stable tour on Wednesday.
|
By:
When are the decs out?
|
By:
Not the line up I was expecting, but a fascinating renewal in prospect. Amazing that last years winner carries the minimum weight. He'll surely run well despite a recent run.
|
By:
Yes, 3/3 at Chepstow too, quite a few out of the handicap. Secret Reprieve must have a huge chance here (unless it's all about Aintree this season).
|
By:
I'd say he needs to climb the ratings some more to get in the GN, winning this would do it.
|
By:
Indeed, good call- bottom weight in the GN this year was 145.
|
By:
deise alba
29 on here three weeks ago moving in week by week |
By:
Stat Qualifiers/Also rans ..... Do not shoot the messenger,at least until after the race.
11/12 Ran within 49 days - Out go numbers 5,11 11/12 minimum 2 runs current season - Out go 1,2,3,4,6,10,12,14,16 9/12 Aged 6-8 - Out go 8,15,20 17/19 Top 4 lto - Out go 7,9 Deise Aba / Eva's Oskar/ Captain Drake/ Hill Sixteen .... These 4 remain from the above stats. It will mean sweet FA if you have dreamt the winner on xmas eve,and backed accordingly Just another angle on what looks a really tough puzzle. Let's see how they get on. |
By:
Hold That Taught (14) should have gone out on first stat ,blonde moment this early.
|
By:
Good work noc, Tough puzzle indeed. Some more rain this morning, might be closer to heavy near the off, that would put me off a few.
Think Secret Reprieve might walk this again, but too low a price for me. Going to add half a point on Hill Sixteen at 20's to back up my original punt. Didnt think he'd turn up in this, but ran well lto and runs more or less to his mark. Cracking renewal in prospect, good luck everyone having a play. |
By:
Morning
Yep,could pick half a dozen,still not hit the frame. S Reprieve I,m not convinced just yet,every man and his dog will tell you he won on soft ground last year,the time of that race suggests nowhere near soft,add in the extra furlong they have to cover,this will be attritional if the rain continues. Which horse is a complete handicap blot? 20 of them take a break from the cannon-ball routine,how many can stay the distance ?The Senna sandwiches and high cal frusemide drinks can only keep you going for so long. Look no further than Kempton yesterday,the gulf in jockey standards is huge. Quite a few aptly named ones in there,if indeed they need the Arc to get to the start. Will Achille be heavily bandaged ? Questions,questions,questions. |
By:
one for the stats , gb bred horses 0/29 since 2011
|
By:
Layed Iwilldoit.
Backed and layed Discordantly and Captain Drake and backed in the seven place market. Hoping to roll back the years by backing win and place (x7) Elegant Escape and Ramses De Teillee. |
By:
Well done gpz and any others, won it well in the end. GB bred....
|