luxembourg

looks like aidan o briens only g1 2yo colt of 2021. fav for the final g1 of the uk season at doncaster next week. very impressive last time. royal patronage will be a tough rival in this race (if they both turn up).........as for being 2022 derby winner.........no idea ronnie.

BDJ

thank you for taking time to reply very much appreciated.

hope you are well

regards

Ronnie.

His win in the Beresford was in a fast time and the Racing Post TS figure could be an underestimate, as he was much faster than the winner of the maiden and the 1m handicap.  He should have had enough time to recover from this run.  His run style suggests that he really wants further than a mile, as he has been so strong at the finish in his 2 races.  He handled Killarney's left hand bend well despite it being a bit crowded on the turn, so he probably will be OK at Epsom next year.

Marksman

thank you

have a good day

regards

Ronnie.

Understand was quite a significant amount rain in Donnie yesterday morning bit of an unsettled remainder week Sally the weather girl said today.

Interesting colt Luxembourg.
He’s won twice on good but the dam was best on soft and she has 3 other offspring, 2 of which seemed best on soft and the dam was best on soft as well.

Not an exact science of course but it looks a bit doubtful that Luxembourg will be inconvenienced by give in the ground. On pedigree his stamina for the Derby looks assured. The question is how good he is.

Last race was about 114P in timeform terminology, so to win this he does need to improve again, but that looks almost assured.

Royal Patronage is maybe around 113p and is typically tough and genuine from the Johnson yard and might even be well suited to soft going, some Wooten Bassetts like plenty of give and he hosed up in a poorish race when he got give at Epsom. If Luxembourg beats him well he can be considered a pretty high class horse. But Royal Patronage will  be unlikely to go down without a fight.

It’s far from a 2 horse race either. Angel Bleu (maybe 112p) just loves a bog and is quite high class. It is quite conceivable he could beat both the other 2.

The huge priced outsider is McTigue of Sir James Bolger. On form he looks a forlorn hope. But Sir James is a great trainer - a legend. He is not in the habit of wasting transport money sending no hopers for English Group 1s.

Doncaster was due to get rain today and more tomorrow. It’s not going to dry out much by Saturday, and could be that good to soft ground that is quite holding and not so very easy to get through.

Good luck everyone.

I am disinclined to plunge on Luxembourg at current odds for either Futurity or Derby but if he wins well on Saturday I would guess he might be as short as 7/4 for the Derby afterwards.

I'll go record now and state that Luxembourg is the best 2 yr old I have on figures since Frankel.

He won an extremely weak Gp2 last time while on bare form only needing to run Gp3 level. He appeared to do it very easily though and I'd expect he's at least up to genuine Gp2 level. Which, looking at today's opposition, will probably be good enough. It seems as though Coolmore think he's a Gp1 horse, but they also seemed to think that about Point Lonsdale, and at the moment the confidence doesn't appear quite as high about this one. Credit to anyone who has him as pegged the real deal already and is proved right, as for me it can only be guesswork before today's race.

* pegged as the real deal

Derby best price 4/1,Billys 5/2.I don't care
what anyone says,they are shocking odds.

Thank you for all your posts

just another quick one 4/1 next years derby
bad price
fair price
good price.
TIA.
Ronnie.

It's hard to guess the route that Aidan O'Brien's horses will take as I don't think he knows himself, and if he makes his own plans, they are quite likely to be altered at short notice by The Lads.  Having said that, it does look like he will go for 2000 Guineas, then Derby (as his sire, Camelot, did) and, if he wins both of these, there is unfinished business in the St Leger.  I won't lay him at 5.0 (4/1) even though it will help balance my book.  He looks full of ability, with room for improvement.  If you want to bet on the Derby, which is still over 7 months away, he is the only one who looks value.  None of the others quoted have a better than 33% chance of even getting to the Derby, in my opinion.

Marksman

thank you for an excellent post.
have a good day
regards
Ronnie.

The Guineas decision will be based on whether he's clocking times at home next year up to the mark of their previous top milers.

I wouldn't be worried at all whether he is fast enough for the 2000Gns based on his Curragh run. The only question will be if he is ready in time to do himself justice in early May.

Sandown, I know you're projecting a rating based on his Curragh late sectional, but just wondering how confident you can be on the base rating when there was only one race on the round course that day?

Figgis will he need to improve to win the Guineas?

Figgis. Obviously I can't be absolutely confident based on one run, and with that being the only run on the round course at the Curragh, as you rightly say, but the finishing split was exceptional (22.1) for an 8f race for 2yr olds. Even if I downgrade my going allowance by 0.1  secs per furlong, the result still gives me a high G1 horse rating. As I said, my highest rating for a 2yr old since Frankel.

He possesses more than enough speed to win a Guineas, the Futurity win confirmed his class, albeit the figures weren't quite as strong, but high enough. I expect the debate to be about whether he has the stamina for the 12f Derby trip but as his pedigree shouts 12f, he looks potentially to be the real deal for me.

Connections comments were very positive, but then as we know, they always are. AOB did say that there was plenty of scope for physical and mental development which bodes well.

Figgis will he need to improve to win the Guineas?

A_T, on the bare form/times achieved yes, but in the Beresford he wasn't really pushed and was only ridden to beat the opposition. The Futurity was run in a very moderate time, but that was no reflection on him, it's just the way the race was run. Even a great horse would be unlikely to win by a big margin in those circumstances. All I can say is that visually I was very taken with him at Doncaster, whereas I never really was with Point Lonsdale. The potential is obviously there, but for me he's not an ante post betting proposition.

Well spotted, Figgis re Beresford being the only race on the whole card run on the round course.  As the wind was light and the general direction travelled by horses in all races was roughly the same, the possible variable is the going on the round course (before it joins the straight).  To disbelieve the time performance, you have to believe that less water or no water was put on the first 5f of the Beresford course, which I think unlikely, as it is a Group 2.

As I said, my highest rating for a 2yr old since Frankel.

There was a Frankel post on here straight after his debut if I remember rightly. I didn't join in until his Doncaster win, where I latched on to him because of the time performance, as many others did. I remember posting that he was potentially even better than I'd rated. As my original rating was so high I'd taken a cautious approach and downgraded him a few pounds, as I didn't want to go out on a limb about a performance in a three horse race. Obviously this proved to be a huge mistake, as it led me to thinking he was probably thought of as more a Derby horse, especially with Cecil starting him out in a mile race on soft ground then aiming him at the Royal Lodge. So as a betting proposition I made a complete mess of it and backed him only for the Derby.

He was still 20/1 after Doncaster though, while Luxembourg is only 9/2 after achieving considerably less, at least as far as final time performance is concerned.

Marksman, even if you judge that conditions were very similar on the round course and the straight course, which in this particular case I do (at the Curragh there is often a massive difference between the circuits compared to other racecourses), it still only means the Beresford was about 17lbs faster than the closing apprentice handicap, which leaves it some way short of Gp1 standard. That doesn't mean he can't run faster, or people can't upgrade him because of sectionals, as Sandown has, but the basic final time performance was quite ordinary for the grade.

I didn't rate Frankel a potential superstar until after his second run at Doncaster where he received an RPR of 126. My projected rating for him was 134. The only way he got that kind of rating was because of the way in which he ran the race, i.e the pace splits,not because of the final time. After his third run, I raised that projection to 138b but never gave him higher subsequently. He eventually received a RPR PB of 143 on his 12th run and his last run, his 14th.

After his frist win when he went off at 7/4 he never subsequently went off anything other than odds on and long odds on at that.


The only time I ever managed to back him for decent money was when he went off 4/6 (1.71) for the Dewhurst, his 4th run and for some reason  he went to 2.46 in-running. I managed to average 2.3 on him.

Frankel is the only horse I have ever kept a separate record for. He was phenomenal and I have never had a 2yr old post  comparable figures either before or since and I have been keeping time/pace reords for nigh on 40 years.

Until Luxembourg, that is. So, when I saw his figures at the Curragh, I knew that we had just seen something special.

I understand the concern about the going allowance for the round course not being backed up by another race on the round course, but that doesn't worry me. Why? Because he gets his high rating from me on what he did in the last 4 furlongs, the last 2 especially.He ran the last2 furlongs of an 8f race a fraction faster than did the 4 year old sprinter Art Power did over 6 furlongs where he ran to an RPR of 120. That is seriously impressive.

I cannot back Luxembourg for either of the firdt 2 Classics , not because of the price, but because it is just too far off to tie up money now in the AP market.

If I am right, we should just be grateful that he might be the next Frankel even if we don't ever get to back him because of his price.

very interesting to read time aficionados opinion on the horse . He looks good in his action , but , hes only 1.5 ls ahead of 4 other horses with little to spare imo , you wouldnt rule him out of winning a guineas or a leger ,  but , theirs no value in him . i,d rather wait

kingsbarns aob and crowded  house . chestnut with a white blaize were in my thoughts . both hype jobs , unearth the value please not the obvious .

Sandown, knowing how Coolmore operate in monitoring work times and sectionals, and how they've not exactly been behind the door in hyping up past runners, don't you think they'd be showing a lot more confidence if they thought they had a superstar on their hands? Sure, they know he's pretty good but the vibes don't seem to be anything different to other past classic prospects. I'm also wondering about them starting a horse with exceptional speed over a mile, as that doesn't seem to be the usual way they do things. The way he's been campaigned seems to suggest he was thought of more as a Derby type and if he can bag a Guineas it'll be a bonus, similar to Luxembourg's sire. O'Brien has had more Gp1 winners than any other yard in recent years, for me, he's trained the fastest two 1000 Guineas winners I've seen, he's had some fine colts as well but never had an outstandingly fast colt. I would've expected the yard to notice if they had a potential Frankel on their hands.

This isn't a dig at your opinion of Luxembourg. It's just some doubts that would enter my mind if I'd personally rated one so highly.

Figgis. I can only rate the horse with any objectivity not the trainers or owners which is all rather subjective. Whether he is guineas horse or a Derby horse or both will be subject to much speculation, no doubt. Already I see that one of the RP writers is arguing that using the final sectional from Doncaster, the horse may not be a 12f horse and his head carriage is also raising queries.

unearth the value please not the obvious .

Some years ago when I was running a tipping line I gave out the winners of the 1000 and 2000 Guineas  in a double which paid 50/1. It was comments like yours from ungrateful and ungracious clients which convinced me that people are never satisfied. If it's so obvious, you find them. And if it's value you want, that isn't what I would put on here first, for people like you to take advantage of , is it?

The only purpose of posting on here is to relate to other knowledgeable racing fans who can likewise make positive contributions not to provide a tipping service or so that I can feel good about it for people who can't work things out for themselves.

twas flippant of me in my remark to find the value apologies .

accepted gpz6316

8/1 is a good trading price nearer Derby Day esp in doubles and trebles, if he stays sound.

I wonder how this beast is progressing. Little from connections since winning The Vertem. He's been drifting here for the 2000G.

Aidan O’Brien says Saturday’s Qipco 2,000 Guineas will be a stiff challenge for Luxembourg and drew comparisons with previous runners from the yard, Australia and Camelot, who went on to win the Derby.

Unbeaten in three starts last year, including the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster, Luxembourg is the 9-2 third favourite for the 2,000 Guineas behind the Godolphin pair Native Trail and Coroebus.

The three-year-old is also 3-1 favourite for the Cazoo Derby at Epsom in June, and O’Brien said middle distances are likely to be where Luxembourg thrives as the year goes on.

“He’s always been very natural in everything he does and he has a very high cruising pace, but it’s a big ask for him to start off in a Guineas when he’s looking like he’s going to be a middle-distance horse for this year,” O’Brien said.

“We’ve started similar horses off in the Guineas like Australia and Camelot before they won the Derby. We think and hope it’s the right race to start him in.”

Luxembourg is set to be joined in the 2,000 Guineas by stablemate Point Lonsdale, with O’Brien saying principal jockey Ryan Moore would leave his decision as late as possible on whom to ride.

“I’m not sure at this moment who he’ll ride but I know Ryan likes both horses and he was very impressed with Luxembourg in Doncaster last year,” O'Brien said.

“He doesn’t have to make up his mind until as late as possible after they’ve done their last pieces of work and everything.

“He has won a Group 1 on Luxembourg so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he goes for him but I wouldn’t want to put any pressure on him at this stage.”

Luxembourg will carry the maroon and blue silks of Georg von Opel’s Westerberg. The Swiss-German billionaire owns the son of Camelot alongside the Coolmore partners of John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith.
The same silks will be worn by Tenebrism in the Qipco 1,000 Guineas on Sunday, in which she will be joined by stablemate Tuesday.

O’Brien, speaking via phone at the Qipco Guineas festival preview lunch at Newmarket on Tuesday, said there were grounds for thinking Tenebrism, winner of the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes last season, would stay the 1,000 Guineas trip and added he had been surprised by the progress Tuesday, a sister to 2016 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winner Minding, had made.

“Looking at Tenebrism, she looked like she was going to get seven furlongs last year so there’s a good chance she’ll get a mile this year,” he said. “Everything she’s done she’s done right in every way. I can’t be sure but I think she’s got every chance [to stay].

“Tuesday won her maiden well at Naas and we thought there was no way she would make it to the Guineas. But she’s made a lot of progress since then and she’s not a three-year-old until nearly June so maybe that’s why she’s like that.

“She doesn’t look like a mile-and-a-half filly but she does look like she’ll get a mile and a quarter well. We’re very happy with her and her training but it’s looking like we’ll start her off here and then maybe she’ll go on to the Oaks like her sister. I didn’t think we would be in this position with her four weeks ago.”

Tuesday: It seems AOB is unsure about 1m 4f; 1m 2f could be her forte. Not what Oaks backers would like to hear though.

I think we have all learned to not worry too much about what Aidan 0'Brien says about future plans, because they seem to change (inexplicably) at short notice.  Even his opinion of the distance requirements of his horses frequently change.

always one to talk up speed rather than stamina is Aidan - sister to an Oaks winner that won't stay 12f? pull the other one...

If he finishes well and wins he'll be a shortie for Epsom; Coroebus will test his pace.

Fit as a butchers b o l l o k s

A general 5/2 for Epsom. Today belongs to Godolphin, Coolmore Epsom?

As I said elsewhere I thought it carried its head a bit high.  Came there though and a decision needs made on it staying the Derby trip on breeding.

Morning Ronnie, you might have hit the jackpot here. Hope you lumped on early. he needs to turn up for the gig next month though. Fingers crossed!

Impossible

thank you for your very kind words backed him at a price to win what i lost out of my back pocket at the festival. believe it or not  have not had a bet since.came home on the friday morning gutted train was just leaving York when the fav won the first  no good , went to the club to watch the gold cup laid 2 horses to a few punters guess which ones, had  a one horse book in the foxhunters  we will leave it at that, and in the mares chase had one looser yes you guessed it correct so it was a horrible week. to tell you the honest truth i am having a bit  of time out at the moment, going to York for 3 days next week only because i have a badge andthe hotel is paid for no bets.
hope you are well and shout him home for me.

Ronnie.

'ronnie', enjoy York, and I hope this beast gets back what you lost out of your back pocket.

Impossible.

thank you always enjoy York been a member since the junior members days getting near an oap so work that out.
went for many a year with my little brother who worked for ladbrokes but sad to say died 15 years ago aged 34.
i have a bench there in his memory,it will be the one with a white rose on every meeting. his ashes are scatted in the betting ring. mine are going to the same place.do a Cheltenhan  tipster competition every year in his memory in a lads shop. costs me and the wife  a carpet every year, a  few years ago one of the good guys at lads found about  it  Adrian Osman and invited us to the st ledger a lovely gesture we will never forget, sad to these days at entain the people from area manager upwards will not give anybody a smile never mind a badge.
thanks again
Ronnie.

Lame.

York will be interesting with the Dante and Musidora on offer. Hopefully a star will be found. I hope York will be enjoyable for you, and no doubt emotional too esp when sitting on "that" bench. Hope the weather is conducive for horseracing and punter friendly.

Today's update on Luxembourg is not what backers would like to hear or need. However, there are 4 weeks before the Epsom gig. Hopefully there's sufficient time for him to recover fully from the slight lameness on his off hind and join the lineup on 4th June. Otherwise the gig will be starved of quality as the principals in the 2000G have chosen to bypass and sought fame and riches elsewhere.

His price is 6/1 (from 2/1); £20 wanted at 11 here; stablemate/2f Changingoftheguard into 9 from 10 here. Informative?

Had a small bet @ 11 hoping the scan reveals in his favour.

Hoping he runs. He's in the best hands so hope they can get him there. May well have been his stumble in the Guineas that has caused it.

Another absentee.

needs 6 weeks box rest.

The stumble the reason perhaps.

[:excited:

What an awfull time I am having but still got my good looks

Stone Age. Wow that looked impressive.,

Stone Age was visually impressive. He can do it from the front too; 4/1 did not last long; 7/2 best, most only 3/1. I reckon he'll be shorter if he shows up!

A miserable time for backers of Luxembourg. I think rushing and running him in the 2000G has totally backfired; his backers have lost twice!

Was it a rush to get him ready for the guineas? I hadn't read that.

Stone Age price is ridiculous for a colt that ran 5 times as a 2yo and didn't win once

Snowfall only won a maiden in 7 runs as a 2 year old.

If memory serves US Army Ranger was rushed too, and he was a goner after. Similarly, High Definition. He was scratched from The Derby.

Where did you read it was a rush to get Luxembourg to the guineas?

I cannot remember precisely where. What I read was his main objective was The Derby, but Guineas on the agenda if progressing accordingly or words to that effect.

I think the dwelt start and stumbled soon after plus the race being 2000G and 1st of the season caused him to over exert himself.

I don't recall US Army Ranger or High Definition being rushed for anything. They were both horses with big reputations they never live up to - which might be what you're thinking.

I never read it was a rush to get him there and I would be amazed if they ran him if they thought he wasn't prepared for the race.

the pre-Guineas Coolmore narrative was that he was a middle distance horse who had lots of speed -  like Australia and Camelot

"He's a bigger horse than Camelot and I think he has more pace, so that would give you hope going for a Guineas. We'll have to wait and see what Newmarket tells us but we hope he's a Derby horse too."

He was prepared alright as he looked fit. But, 1st time out, dwelt and then stumbled and behind yet managed 2nd with 1f to go was a step too far for him, I reckon. I hope he'll prove a better horse further than 8f.

US Army Ranger and High definition were rushed for The Derby; the former made it (but bottomed), the latter did not.

none of those horses were rushed except in your own mind

US Army Ranger was just not that good.

High Definition was an intended runner in the Lingfield Derby Trial, but tests revealed something wrong with his blood.  Then, surprisingly for may people, he ran in the Dante and, not surprisingly was beaten.  Then Aidan said he was going for the Derby, only to change his mind just before final decs and decided to give him more time and go for the Irish Derby.  So it looked to me that he was being rushed.

[from the Racing Post]
By David Jennings
UPDATED 11:07AM, JUN 26 2021

3.45 Curragh
Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) | 1m4f | 3yo | ITV/RTV

It was a rush to get High Definition to the Dante, but there has been no such hurry since York and Aidan O'Brien reports a perfect preparation ahead of his tilt at the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby.