champion stakes ascot

Adayar confirmed runner

Horses who have run in the Arc do quite well when reappearing within 2 weeks in another G1.  The following is for horses that ran in the Arc and made reappearances in G1s since 1999:

Race	Runs	Wins	Win Percentage	2nd	3rd	Place(1,2,3)
Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe	28	5	(17.86%)	7	6	(64.29%)

Both Ayudar and Sealiway ran in the Arc.  Of the 2, I prefer Sealiway who was given too much to do and finished full of run.  By contrast, Ayudar was in front too soon and appeared to be tiring at the end.  Charlie Appleby said he thought both Ayudar and Sealiway were probably finished for the season on ITV on Saturday, so my guess is that the change of mind was a whim of the owner.
Mishriff should be favourite, but I think he is better on a good to firm (or good) surface.  (He has even acted on heavy, but this is not his preference.)
Dubai Honour appears to be improving, but the form of his Deauville win looks poor now, and being upped in grade could find him out.

correction:

Charlie was talking about Ayudar and Hurricane LANE, not Sealiway!

another correction:

substiute ADAYAR for Ayudar.  (must be down to watching the racing while I'm typing)

having re-looked at the arc I wouldn't say sealiway finished well marksman . he was a length behind tasso at the 400m then got left for dead by him . He did make up some ground on the faders , but , he didn't finish full of running , imo of course . I know dubai honour has it to prove in terms of class , but , if you watch the dollar he really does finish off strongly and to my eye looks a horse in rude health , who can obviously be out-classed , but , 8-1 is a fair price imo . best of luck .

Adayar,probably needed that run in the Arc more than
the stable thought.Best horse in the race.

My thoughts on adayar penzance is that hes done for the season , over the top and isn't any kind of price either . He's priced on his summer form . My opinion is he wont come on , tis a game of opinions .

I think given Adayar's exploit in the Arc, and Mishriff has been earmaked for this all along and over the latter's best distance of 10f I believe the pendulum has swung in his favour provided no unexpected deluge.

AOB ducked this sending his 3rd choice Bolshoi Ballet instead of Love or Snowfall; Snowfall has taken the easy option Fillies and Mares.

addeyeb won this last year has beaten mishriff twice has won multi group races here and abroad ,a tough genuine performer and around 8/1 each way looks as though this the target again  looks decent value and will do for me   .

I can't see beyond Mishriff in this and see him as an evens shot. he has to be the bet.

gpz
ran a stormer,unlucky.
  wd.

Thanks penzance , close , but , no cigar ! I think the race confirmed the importance of fresh horses in good form being the most important factor , looking forward towards  the breeders cup  .

they're not going to wn much woth Adayar next year if they try to take it up in big races from a mile out

Morning A_T. After the Derby Applebly said his target was going to be the Queens Vase. He clearly has no speed at home and that is what we are seeing now. If they target the Cup races it looks a gimme to me. They can target the top 12f races with Hurricane Lane. I will be looking out for some early AP betting on the Gold Cup next year. I don't think Trueshan will take a lot of beating at Ascot in June.

brigust I don't envisage Adayar taking in any Cup races

Appleby has been saying the horse should be suited by 10f - I've never seen that. IMO Adayar is an out-and-out 12f galloper and the 2 best performances have been when it's been given a lead until about 3 or 4 furlongs out. To do what Buick's been trying in the Champion Stakes and the Arc he has to judge the pace exactly right - IMO he's used up too much petrol in the middle of the race. Needs a pacemaker.

Absolutely right. I think he is an out-and-out galloper and I also think his stable companion is faster than him. With the 4 year old and upwards Group 1's available early on they will then meet the new classic horses. Adayar wasn't expected to do what he has done and that may be down to circumstance so I really believe the Cup races are going to be his target. I may be wrong, that wouldn't be unusual but I don't see me backing him over 10 or 12f any time soon. Interesting times ahead.

My thoughts on adayar penzance is that hes done for the season , over the top and isn't any kind of price either . He's priced on his summer form . My opinion is he wont come on

Nail on head.

The Champion Stakes is the race that I most got wrong along  with many others I should think.

I backed Sealiway in the Arc but not on Satuurday as Ididn't expect him to improve dropping back to 10f, but obviously he did. The RPR has him on 124 (+5 vs PB) and Dubai Honour on 122 (+1). My first reaction was that this is somewhat under-estimating the merit of his performance.

The ground was no worse than good to soft on times so I can't see that being the reason why so many top notchers under-performed eg RPR's Adayer (-19) Mishriff(-11) Addayeb (-26).

I think that the RPR's are lower than deserved because of the reluctance to raise Mac Sweeney by more than (+1). Dubai Honour ran a great race, showing more improvement but he has been raised just +1 to 122.

The race time suggests a slowly run race and looking at sectionals, I can't say that a large uplift is required. On these, it looks more like that the winner and second were levelling off, but not slowing.

Because of what the times are telling me, I don't think on reflection that the form deserves a higher rating than that given. So, not a top-class renewal after all, although a good race to watch. Even so,the first 2 can be expected to go on improving.

Backed Sealiway in both , but in contrast to Barzalona I thought he was ridden in the Arc as if an unlikely stayer . Great performance by the runnerup .

Thats exactly it Paulo.  He was ridden to get the trip in the Arc and ended up being too far back.  There were no stamina doubts at 1m2f and he was ridden accordingly.