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FELTFAIR
20 Aug 21 11:04
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Date Joined: 01 Jun 10
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15.00 Orazio e-w 4 places
15.35 Winter Power e-w 4 places

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Replies: 10
By:
Howellsy
When: 20 Aug 21 13:01
I agree these two have good chances to be placed but with the latter perhaps it depends on whether she can just be ridden slightly behind the pace. In terms of Orazio, I think the Newbury race might have been quite good. Caturra's run at Goodwood didn't advertise it, but they did go very slow there. I think Orazio will be held up and prove very strong at the finish.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Aug 21 13:48
The Nunthorpe contains one of only two strong fancies I have for the meeting and is my main bet. So it could either make my meeting, or possibly break it if I have a poor Saturday. I will be opposing the fav and I just don't get all the hype for him. His Norfolk run was pretty ordinary. I don't have a confident handle on American form but it looks fairly obvious that he improved from the Norfolk to take the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. But even though that race has a grand name and a big purse it is still only a Grade 2. Ubettabelieveit was only 1 3/4 behind in third with Lipizzaner in fourth. I'd expect much needed improvement from 2 to 3 to go from that to winning a Nunthorpe. He took his comeback race easily, but that didn't really show he'd improved. Possibly he's now become as fast as Ward is proclaiming, but I'll take that risk.

Suesa looked impressive in winning at Goodwood. I don't think the performance was quite as good as it may have appeared, as the ones behind didn't put up a great show, but it was good enough to take a weakish looking Nunthorpe. I made the mistake of overrating Dragon Symbol going into the July Cup, but have revised my rating for him since and don't believe he's really a Gp1 horse on the form he's shown so far. I see there has been money for him today so I couldn't rule out more improvement, but have no interest in backing him at the top level again until I see it.

Of course there's the possibility that Suesa is much better on soft ground, but just because she hasn't put up a big performance yet on good to firm ground doesn't mean she can't, as she hasn't yet had the opportunity. If she does run to form the only runner I think capable of beating her on these weight terms is the 2yo Chipotle if returning to his Ascot form. It was nothing special but I've always thought the amount 2yos receive in these sprints is ridiculously generous. However, he has been well below that form recently and if I worried too much about opponents with form from some way back I'd have very few bets. Hopefully Suesa will repeat her Goodwood run and she's my bet.
By:
Howellsy
When: 20 Aug 21 15:12
Figgis, I thought you worked mostly with overall final time speed figures, in which case I have to say I can't give Suesa a decent figure for Goodwood. That's not to say she couldn't do one - it may have been a function of pace for example. Comparing the time with Ever Given on the sprint track that day, I didn't think Suesa emerged as far in front as you'd want, after making allowances for the going etc. However, she may have the race run to suit, as there are loads of pacey types in here - but there have to be doubts about her being drawn so high. As I said earlier, I think Winter Power has achieved much the quickest time of these, but she has done so when running very aggressively against a lower class of opposition and that simply may not be possible today. I agree Chipotle has the theoretical winning of this, but I think several 2yos have been run off their feet in this race which has nullified their mathematical advantage, and I fear the same may be true of him, although at least he is likely to be held up, which will help to offset the effects of the fastest pace he has ever encountered. I don't have a strong view on the race but if forced to give a selection I'd go for Winter Power and hope she can track the pace and run to her best without dominating from the front.
By:
Sandown
When: 20 Aug 21 15:19
I've arrived at a different conclusion Figgis. The same 3 horses but order 1.Golden Pal, 2. Suesa 3. Dragon Symbol.

On Goodwood form it's hard to see DS beating Suesa unless the French horse is best on ground that has some cut in it.That's an unknown. GP is a difficult horse to rate but having watched it's last 2 runs in the US I've reached the conclusion that 5f may be its best trip and on good or firmish ground. It was tiring in the last 110 yds at Keeneland and would have been a more dominant winner at 5f. It breaks fast whereas I'm thinking that Suesa will be held up. The draw looks as though low draw is the place to be and GP is drawn 1 whilst Suesa is drawn 14. Ward has set York as his target and the last run was a good prep.

Anyway, my bet is GP to win money and Suesa to save.
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Aug 21 15:40
Well done Feltfair. Unfortunately for me Buick seemed to think he was in a mile race, but that's how it goes.
By:
penzance
When: 20 Aug 21 15:40
Op
  wd
   GL
By:
Sandown
When: 20 Aug 21 15:40
Oh dear! Wants 4f? Confused
By:
Figgis
When: 20 Aug 21 16:33
I'd go for Winter Power and hope she can track the pace and run to her best without dominating from the front. 

And well done Howellsy with that analysis.
By:
Howellsy
When: 20 Aug 21 19:18
Cheers Figgis but I didn't even bet on the race!
By:
Facts
When: 21 Aug 21 10:48
WD Feltfair and  Howellsy
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