Horse Antepost
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Snowfall is already being hailed as a superstar filly in much of the media, but I still think she has a lot to prove. I'm not trying to argue it wasn't a very good Oaks performance, but in my view it certainly wasn't in Enable's league (8lbs lower). I also have her slightly below other very good Oaks winners of the past, such as Oh So Sharp and Ouija Board, and those fillies struggled in all age Gp1s in their 3yo season. I have her a little below Taghrooda too, who did win the KG that year but then undoubtedly ran below par when beaten in this event at short odds. Which just shows how difficult it is to maintain that level, unless, like Enable, the filly has so much in hand it doesn't get pushed to the limit.
Back to Snowfall, she was very impressive again in the Irish Oaks, but that was a poor field and I have her running 4lbs below her Epsom effort. Of course it's possible that if needed she could've matched her Epsom figure, but on viewing the race a few times I wouldn't take it as a given. Even if she runs just to the Curragh form she'll still be an extremely likely winner. However, at the skinny odds on offer I don't want to see room for doubt and I think it's also possible that she's on the downturn, so I'm taking her on.
As the market suggests there is only one filly capable of giving her a race and that is Wonderful Tonight. I backed her at odds on last time and will be staying with her again. She might not have looked too impressive last time but the race wasn't a true test and I think she ran within herself. She should have plenty left in the tank for this race and I'm not convinced she absolutely needs it soft. If Snowfall can repeat her Epsom effort then she wins comfortably on these wfa terms. If she repeats her Curragh effort then she'll probably still win but WT should give her a race. Anything below that and I reckon WT will have her measure. I'm backing WT and won't have any regrets if Snowfall scoots in at odds of around 2/5.
Back to Snowfall, she was very impressive again in the Irish Oaks, but that was a poor field and I have her running 4lbs below her Epsom effort. Of course it's possible that if needed she could've matched her Epsom figure, but on viewing the race a few times I wouldn't take it as a given. Even if she runs just to the Curragh form she'll still be an extremely likely winner. However, at the skinny odds on offer I don't want to see room for doubt and I think it's also possible that she's on the downturn, so I'm taking her on.
As the market suggests there is only one filly capable of giving her a race and that is Wonderful Tonight. I backed her at odds on last time and will be staying with her again. She might not have looked too impressive last time but the race wasn't a true test and I think she ran within herself. She should have plenty left in the tank for this race and I'm not convinced she absolutely needs it soft. If Snowfall can repeat her Epsom effort then she wins comfortably on these wfa terms. If she repeats her Curragh effort then she'll probably still win but WT should give her a race. Anything below that and I reckon WT will have her measure. I'm backing WT and won't have any regrets if Snowfall scoots in at odds of around 2/5.
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to justify her current favoritism for the Arc she's going to have to put significant daylight between herself and WT in second place. as we've seen with Love this year beating other 3yo fillies is one thing - stepping up to beat the colts quite another
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Oujii Board won a GP1 in America as a 3yr old.
She beat older horses. |
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Lots of Oaks winners have beaten older fillies in the season, and in this race in particular, Ramruma, Alexandrova, Love, etc. I was referring to the point that in order to be even mentioned as a superstar filly she should be good enough to win an 'all age Gp1'. Which is the general term for the true championship events open to both sexes. Perhaps I should've said all age all sex races for the insufferable pedantic.
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I was completely wrong about Wonderful Tonight, who was a no show. However, even with that taken into account and the fact that the other fillies weren't up to much beforehand, Snowfall was very impressive again. Might just have to revise my opinion of how good she is. Maybe I've underrated her or maybe she's still improving, but will see how the time compares first.
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4 length beating of Albaflora (giving 9lbs WFA). No way is this form good enough to win a Championship all-age race like the Arc or King George.
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A_T, yes of course you're right. I was just prepared to alter my view, as it's possible a race can look better on the clock than it does at face value. But no, she did nothing here timewise that she hasn't done before. It looks a similar performance to her Irish Oaks effort. It would be foolish for me to say she couldn't win an Arc. As much depends on the way things pan out. Things can go wrong with the better runners. We get years like the ones when Bago and Hurricane Run won. Winners that were, for me, pretty ordinary as far as Arc winners go. If Snowfall could return to her Epsom effort she'd be capable of giving Hurricane Lane a race, if he ended up there.
Personally though I still don't believe she's good enough to win a decent Arc, and at the moment there are better horses likely to be in opposition. |
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Don't get me wrong she's a top class filly - but like Love last year she is just beating other fillies - in the end Love was a no-show in the Arc but this year's form make it hard to believe she would have won at Longchamp. Maybe she is another Zarkava or Enable but I don't see how she can be favourite ahead of Adayar.
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A_T, for me, Adayar is 11lbs superior to her on her Epsom form/time. I don't even think Adayar ran to his max at Ascot.
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Snowfall didn't run up to her Epsom or Curragh form but she didn't have to. Her target is the Arc and the race should be taken as a prep for that and no more read into it. What is significant are AOB's remarks about her thriving and putting on weight, so we can expect an improved run in October. Adayar has proved himself a top class horse as has Hurricane Lane. If HL is aimed at the St Leger then he will probably not turn up in France unless Adayar has a set back. I don't have Adayar in front of the filly, and certainly not by 11 lbs so we will have to disagree on that Figgis. It is all about on the day and the relative prices but these two look to have the race at their mercy. WT is a top class horse but I don't see her her beating either of these two.
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Sandown, I know we disagree about the merits of Adayar and Hurricane Lane, I have Adayar 10lbs ahead whereas you have them similar. Fair enough, there is still a lot to be proved. But if we take Workforce, for instance, I think we agreed he was an above average Derby winner, even if he didn't quite go on as a 4yo like many hoped. Where would you rate Snowfall compared to him? I have her 12lbs behind him on her Oaks win. Or compared to a different above average Derby winner of your choosing? I think she's well short of the likes of Enable and Treve who could compete with the really top class colts. Admittedly I didn't rate Treve so highly until she actually won the Arc, but she was relatively lightly raced in comparison.
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Figgis.
I have Snowfall at the same rating as Adyar but as her final sectional was faster than the colt I have her rated just a bit higher so with the fillies allowance I still have her ahead of him for the Arc. The change to the course on the Saturday at Epsom and the fact that Snowfall came over to the stands side complicates matters so I can't be definitive about the final ratings. The main issue is what happens between Epsom in June and Longchamp in October. Who has the best prep, who shows improvement. I haven't got Snowfall improving at the Curragh and certainly not at York despite all the hype. Adyar has matched his Epsom rating for me. I'm not putting money down now when there is still 6/7 weeks to the Arc. As for Enable she continued to improve from race to race although I haven't got her final rating as high as some others. I think she was somewhat fortunate in meeting horses not as good as her. Workforce put up an extraordinary performance in his Derby. Maybe he hadn't recovered the next time at Ascot behind Harbinger. I doubted him for the Arc after that but he ran up to his Epsom form. This years Arc field will have a few other contenders who might improve so I'm not committing to a strong view yet on that race other than I expect both Snowfall and Adyar to both go close if they turn up. |
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Have to consider the trainer's dismal record in the race with 3yos - best finish I think 3rd with High Chapparal
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beaten in the trial today
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This year's renewal is rather poor despite the presence of Alpinista whose greatest claim to fame was beating Torquator Tasso - the Arc winner; Tuesday never showed up in the Irish Derby but can atone enormously if reproducing her Epsom Oaks form, I believe.
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