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elisjohn
13 Aug 21 13:34
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Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 17,201 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
9 left in at the 6 day stage headed my SMB around the evens , a worthy favourie, seeing that 3 year old form is superior this year for the 1st time in ages v the elders, gosdens thinks mishrif will be a much better horse for this than in the eclipse, but might the kg taken a bit out of him ?, alcohol free wont stay,   but that 20/1 on love looks might nice, if you knew she,d be a deffo runner, smashing e/w imo, but not at 7/1 first 2 with 365,

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Replies: 28
By:
impossible123
When: 13 Aug 21 15:29
I believe Love is an unlikely runner unless SMB is an absentee; Joan Of Arc a pacer for SMB; Alcohol Free is a bizarre placement similarly Alenquer.

SMB is 4/5 to beat Mishriff again - the only 2 with proven Gp1 abilities over distance.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 14 Aug 21 15:16
Bit surprised the Mishriff team aren't using a pace angle ?? They surely don't want another steady run 10f (like Sandown) ??
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 16 Aug 21 09:39
SMB out. Love in.
By:
A_T
When: 16 Aug 21 10:38
that could be the end of SMB's racing
By:
elisjohn
When: 16 Aug 21 10:56
Cry 20/1 on here yesterday , love
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Aug 21 16:17
I think Billies knew something untoward had happened to SMB. They stopped offering cashout from sunday suddenly; Love would have to beat Mishriff otherwise she'd have been over-lauded last season. But, I think Mishriff will win.
By:
penzance
When: 17 Aug 21 10:49
Mishriff should win this,probably back
over his best trip here. Good 3rd  in the Eclipse
when maybe not fully fit & his 2nd to Adayar was a
cracking run.Don't think this was Love's 1st chioce
of race here either so got it all to do with Mishriff
on the Ascot run.
Alcohol Free is a doubtfull stayer to me in this and I
also think Mohaafeth is a bit over rated,just my view.
He's 2LB worse off with Juan Elcano on their York run
and he's 6/1,the other is around the 25/33s mark.He
was given a bit to do but went past the winner(Bangkok)
near the line and still got beat and ended up  3rd.
Good race to look forward to.
   GL ALL
By:
.Marksman.
When: 17 Aug 21 13:48
The doubts about Alcohol Free's stamina seem to be down to her pedigree, which suggests that even a mile would be strething her.  But, on the racecourse, she now gives the impresssion that, with the combination of being held up at the back and settling better, she could stay 1m 2f.  She still looked strong at the end of the recent Goodwood win.
The Sussex stakes form now looks good, as Alcohol Free beat Poetic Flare more comfortably than Palace Pier did at Deauville on Sunday.
By:
A_T
When: 17 Aug 21 14:54
Can't see AF staying - on breeding plus the stable hardly ever has big winners further than a mile
if Love wasn't fast enough to beat Mishriff over 12f it's going to be tough over 10f
Mohaafeth still unproven - the last race was total mess  - he looks over-complicated
By:
impossible123
When: 17 Aug 21 15:03
I think Alcohol Free is not an easy horse to ride as everything needs to go right with her; beat Poetic Flare on ground against the latter. But, the 3lbs sex allowance helps.

Mishriff for me over this trip, but no bet for me (antepost on SMB kicked the bucket). I do not think Love is as good as connections or most pundits think. She's not even as good as Minding, certainly no Enable.
By:
PeteTheBloke
When: 17 Aug 21 18:53
Does anyone know why BF didn't suspend? Or did they? I was at work, but the absence of the AP fave and the inclusion of Lurve
was clearly well-known way ahead of the market being closed for the decs.
By:
.Marksman.
When: 17 Aug 21 19:47
They didn't suspend and SMB was left in up until 10:00am for those of us layers, who have no morals, to prey on the ignorant.
By:
impossible123
When: 17 Aug 21 20:19
I firmly believe facilitating their own is encouraged and not frowned upon. This is horseracing one of the most crooked sports on the planet - profit by whatever mean!
By:
gpz6316
When: 17 Aug 21 21:29
looking at mishriff form , i dont like it for a 13/8 shot . loves form doesnt look that good either looking back at who they,ve beat . i noticed on the rp website tom segal was gonna be backing a 3yo in this , his tip may or may not a/effect the market . i think the 3yo s are the ones though myself . mohaafeth looks like he had a prep for this in hindsight , though hes not proved his class he,ll be cherry ripe . alenquer has great looking form and cant be dismissed . macswinney could surprise , i think  poetic flares run in the marois shows alcohol free , s form is bang there , right now and at 6-1 shes my selection . as regards a t comments below that she wont stay i would digress . if you can stay a mile on heavy ground at ascot she,ll stay 10.5f  good ground on a turning track at york . looks a great race enjoy
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Aug 21 13:42
For me, none of these runners are quite up to the level of what it usually takes to win this race, but it still remains a very interesting race. Mohaafeth was undoubtedly given a stinking ride last time but I still don't have him as even a ballpark Gp1 winner on what he's shown so far. I've already said how Love hasn't improved a jot from 3 to 4, which she needed to do in order to negate the lost allowance. There's still time for her to find it but I couldn't back her until I see it, and the way she hung when asked for an effort last time wasn't encouraging.

Mishriff ran well in defeat last time, and of those proven at the distance he's the form pick if he has recovered for this. The slow pace in the Eclipse didn't really show him at his best but the KG run put him close to my guesstimate rating for his Meydan Gp1 win. However that means that he's not really improving and I'll pass on him at this price after quite a hard race. Ignoring distance, if all the runners ran to their previous best on these weight terms I have no doubt at all that Alcohol would be the winner. Obviously the extra distance has to be a doubt, but at this kind of price, as the best runner, imo, and the only runner to show improvement last time out she's the one I'm backing.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Aug 21 13:43
* Alcohol Free
By:
gpz6316
When: 18 Aug 21 16:05
twas a poor run from af , i suspect  ken was right in  saying she looked a bit light in the parade ring not the level of lto imo
By:
.Marksman.
When: 18 Aug 21 17:20
I noticed how fluent Ken was today, compared with a few years ago on RacingUK.  Pleased for him, as it is all a confidence thing.
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Aug 21 17:31
Even if running her race/staying the trip I don't believe AF would've beaten Mishriff today, who, for me, put up a new career peak by a few pounds (up 4lbs). Probably due to the drop back to 10f and the good pace rather than any physical progression. Despite the emphatic win I still wouldn't have it as form to get carried away about and only rate it the lower end of the Gp1 bracket. With some of the fancied runners being below par it didn't take a lot of winning.
By:
penzance
When: 18 Aug 21 17:56
always a bellow par race when you don't give the winnerLaugh
By:
Figgis
When: 18 Aug 21 18:34
Well, the best performance for me this year was the Derby, and I certainly didn't give that winner. I backed the winner of the POW and that was still a well below par Gp1. So I say bullsh1t Wink
By:
A_T
When: 18 Aug 21 18:39
Very good performance from Mishriff best of the season for me. Don't think any ran below par - AF was never going to stay the stable never has anything good at further than a mile.
By:
penzance
When: 18 Aug 21 18:44
the old adage'bullshit baffles brains'Laugh.
the bluffers on here belive in it,I suppose.
By:
gpz6316
When: 18 Aug 21 20:29
we all have our own ideas and opinions mine was wrong , well done to the  winners
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Aug 21 21:26
I think connections of Alcohol Free were deluded to run her here. The winner was head and shoulder above the others on his optimum trip with reservations for the others hence the winning margin.

St Mark's Basilica is an entirely different kettle of opposition.
By:
sageform
When: 21 Aug 21 11:08
Everything was against Alcohol Free as it turned out. Her best form is on soft and heavy but she didn't appear to get 10 furlongs on good so she won't on soft either. The yard are on a mission to win the trainers champs and are reluctant to travel abroad so the mile on Champions day will be the target. If she has a reviving break, that is a realistic one. Mishriff looks the obvious one for the Champion Stakes but seems aimed at the Arc.
By:
impossible123
When: 21 Aug 21 15:31
Mishriff for The ARC? Delusion of the highest order. Giving weight to two potentially great 3 yr olds on not his optimum trip? I do not think Gosden will get carried away again (Stradivarius was 'confused.com' post the race.
By:
A_T
When: 21 Aug 21 17:15
Mishriff second in the KG the best 12f performance by an older horse this season. Will face the 3yos on bett.er terms in the Arc so Adayar will have to improve in line with WFA terms. Gosden won't want bottomless ground if it's not can see Mishriff running in the Arc.
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