Grand Prix de Paris-July 14

this race deserves a better field than it has been getting recently so its great these two are going. the o'brien 3 look poor. surprised lone eagle is not in. the french lot look average.
hurricane lane really should win.

Hoping Cheshire Academy hacks up.

Hurricane Lane looks the one but lack of pace would be a worry

Fantastic field - way better than the King George is likely to be.

It appears to be raining now in Paris (https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap) and the BBC forecast is for lots of rain until Wednesday evening.  This could add to unpredictability and will favour Alenquer who has solid form and wins in soft conditions.  I can't see Hurricane Lane going off shorter than 8/5 fav despite having by far the highest RP rating and a recent Group 1 win.
Cheshire Academy had a shocking draw in the Prix du Jockey Club and, with a previous win on very soft going, I can see him finishing infront of Saiydabad this time and making the frame.

Do you really think so uncle? I took one look at the field on thought, fav aside, just a bunch of Gp3 runners and glorified handicappers.

*and thought

Fantastic field - way better than the King George is likely to be.

can't see that all - the KG is likely to have 3 or more group 1 winners.

This race is invariably for horses not good enough to win one of the Derbies - HL would be running at Ascot were it not for Adayar. The list of previous winners is a role-call for non-entities.

I expect the KG to cut up badly. I can even see Adayar being a non runner if it's quick at Ascot which then effectively leaves a match between Love and Pyledriver - snoozeville imo.

Hurricane Lane v Alenquer v Cheshire Academy strikes me as a much more intriguing race. YMMV.

HL looks too short - I think he needs a strong pace and this might be a typical Frencch affair get plus he might have had a hard trace in Ireland. Accepting the hard-luck stories for the Chantilly run I prefer Cheshire Academy.

Racing Post verdict starts with the line ' A fabulous race on paper'. I rest my case.

Hope I'm 'grinning' at my antepost Arc position later.

Pricewise has only gone and put up CA.

On form Hurricane Lane ought to be about 2/5, as, even thought it's not an especially high standard he sets, on the face of it there doesn't appear to be an opponent ready to improve enough to surpass him. So as a betting proposition I see it more about the question of him actually running to form. This is far more difficult to ponder than working out the best horse in the race. After the Irish Derby I thought it's highly likely he'll need a break. According to Appleby's comments, that's exactly what their camp though too. However, apparently they've been very pleased with him since and decided to run here. Looking at this very weak Gp1 I can see why they've been tempted.

It's obviously encouraging that he appears to have taken the Irish Derby well. Nevertheless, after the Dante I thought he had a hard race there and might've left his Derby chance behind, yet going into the Derby Appleby said he couldn't have been more pleased with the horse. HL ran below form on the day. The truth is we don't know, as all horses are individuals and we don't know enough about the durability of these lightly raced 3yos as individuals. My approach for betting purposes is to just play the percentages and lump them altogether. On the whole I would say there's a more than a 50% chance a horse with HL's profile would run below par next time to some degree. He might blow out completely or may just run a few pounds below. Even a 6lbs regression would leave him vulnerable as that is the amount I have him ahead of Alenquer.

So while it would be no surprise to see him win comfortably, leaving me thinking why did I have to over complicate matters, I still wouldn't be at all surprised to see him flop, so at this kind of price I'll have to pass.

* all together

saiydabad or cheshire academy look more interesting betting propositions at the prices, wouldn't have a clue which one would have the better chance, as im not betting in the race , theres no point watching their last race either, one of them in the place market, make more sense than backing favourite at the prices.

On his run at the Curragh, Hurricane Lane should win this comfortably. I make him a an evens chance so 2.5 is acceptable . I have Alenquer at 6.5 and Cheshire Academy at 11.0.

Sorry for the after timing, but I had a decent EW bet on Adhafera which in my view was given too confident a ride finishing 2nd behind Babylone
who also finished well. Hopefully, HL will compensate partially.

Good tipping Sandown!

impressivw winner ,well done winners

Very easy, well done backers. Quite surprised to see the time was slower than the fairly ordinary looking Gp2 fillies race, as it looked well run to the eye.

it looked well run to the eye.

really? what I saw was a typical French canter-to-sprint like we saw in last year's Arc - Buick judged the pace well and the others weren't getting closer at the end.

I would need to see it again to be sure, and do a proper time comparison. But on first viewing it just looked the usual comfortable early pace you'd expect in a 12f race. Contrary to what some commentators imply, they don't need to go haring off in order to achieve a good time. They were fairly spread out approaching the turn, not climbing all over each other like you would normally get in a dawdle. They also seemed to quicken well before the approach to the straight, which would be plenty of time enough to counterbalance all but the slowest of early crawls. As I say though, would need to view it again, could be misleading.

Hurricane Lane won well but Doyle certainly asked
Alenquer a question.

HL went off a big price on the machine, commentary exaggerating the winning distance to 10 lengths those french horses were useless, thought the irish derby was a weak race, that race was even worse, noticed the time of the previous race on the card was too was 0.72 faster with winner, albeit carrying 5 lbs less, WD winners

The figures support Figgis's view that it wasn't a dawdle although it certainly helped to be on the pace which didn't suit the other fancied horses. Alonquer and Cheshire Academy were disappointing, nevertheless. HL was raised  2 lbs on RPR but on times the performance was below that at the Curragh, not that it matters now as the horse will be rested and probably aimed at the Arc.

The French going descriptions continue to baffle me. The ground was described as "very soft" just as it was in April when Cheshire Academy won at Longchamp but you wouldn't say that looking at the going allowances for both days. I would say that yesterday it was no worse than good to soft, possible nearing good ground. A mystery.

yesterday it was no worse than good to soft, possible nearing good ground

Yes, couldn't possibly have been any slower than that.