Horse Antepost

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10 Jul 21 11:53
Date Joined: 31 Dec 04
| Topic/replies: 11,622 | Blogger: ImSoLuckyLucky!'s blog
Hurricane Lane and Alenquer supplemented for the race
No prices yet

Pause Switch to Standard View Grand Prix de Paris-July 14
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Report brain dead jockeys July 10, 2021 11:32 PM BST
this race deserves a better field than it has been getting recently so its great these two are going. the o'brien 3 look poor. surprised lone eagle is not in. the french lot look average.
hurricane lane really should win.
Report unclepuncle July 11, 2021 8:59 AM BST
Hoping Cheshire Academy hacks up.Cool
Report A_T July 11, 2021 10:33 AM BST
Hurricane Lane looks the one but lack of pace would be a worry
Report unclepuncle July 12, 2021 1:54 PM BST
Fantastic field - way better than the King George is likely to be.
Report .Marksman. July 12, 2021 2:02 PM BST
It appears to be raining now in Paris ( and the BBC forecast is for lots of rain until Wednesday evening.  This could add to unpredictability and will favour Alenquer who has solid form and wins in soft conditions.  I can't see Hurricane Lane going off shorter than 8/5 fav despite having by far the highest RP rating and a recent Group 1 win.
Cheshire Academy had a shocking draw in the Prix du Jockey Club and, with a previous win on very soft going, I can see him finishing infront of Saiydabad this time and making the frame.
Report Figgis July 12, 2021 2:03 PM BST
Do you really think so uncle? I took one look at the field on thought, fav aside, just a bunch of Gp3 runners and glorified handicappers.
Report Figgis July 12, 2021 2:04 PM BST
*and thought
Report A_T July 12, 2021 2:35 PM BST
Fantastic field - way better than the King George is likely to be.

can't see that all - the KG is likely to have 3 or more group 1 winners.

This race is invariably for horses not good enough to win one of the Derbies - HL would be running at Ascot were it not for Adayar. The list of previous winners is a role-call for non-entities.
Report unclepuncle July 13, 2021 6:21 AM BST
I expect the KG to cut up badly. I can even see Adayar being a non runner if it's quick at Ascot which then effectively leaves a match between Love and Pyledriver - snoozeville imo.Laugh

Hurricane Lane v Alenquer v Cheshire AcademyLove strikes me as a much more intriguing race. YMMV.Confused
Report A_T July 14, 2021 9:32 AM BST
HL looks too short - I think he needs a strong pace and this might be a typical Frencch affair get plus he might have had a hard trace in Ireland. Accepting the hard-luck stories for the Chantilly run I prefer Cheshire Academy.
Report unclepuncle July 14, 2021 1:50 PM BST
Racing Post verdict starts with the line ' A fabulous race on paper'. I rest my case.Cool

Hope I'm 'grinning' at my antepost Arc position later. Wink
Report unclepuncle July 14, 2021 1:51 PM BST
Pricewise has only gone and put up CA.CryCryCry
Report Figgis July 14, 2021 4:08 PM BST
On form Hurricane Lane ought to be about 2/5, as, even thought it's not an especially high standard he sets, on the face of it there doesn't appear to be an opponent ready to improve enough to surpass him. So as a betting proposition I see it more about the question of him actually running to form. This is far more difficult to ponder than working out the best horse in the race. After the Irish Derby I thought it's highly likely he'll need a break. According to Appleby's comments, that's exactly what their camp though too. However, apparently they've been very pleased with him since and decided to run here. Looking at this very weak Gp1 I can see why they've been tempted.

It's obviously encouraging that he appears to have taken the Irish Derby well. Nevertheless, after the Dante I thought he had a hard race there and might've left his Derby chance behind, yet going into the Derby Appleby said he couldn't have been more pleased with the horse. HL ran below form on the day. The truth is we don't know, as all horses are individuals and we don't know enough about the durability of these lightly raced 3yos as individuals. My approach for betting purposes is to just play the percentages and lump them altogether. On the whole I would say there's a more than a 50% chance a horse with HL's profile would run below par next time to some degree. He might blow out completely or may just run a few pounds below. Even a 6lbs regression would leave him vulnerable as that is the amount I have him ahead of Alenquer.

So while it would be no surprise to see him win comfortably, leaving me thinking why did I have to over complicate matters, I still wouldn't be at all surprised to see him flop, so at this kind of price I'll have to pass.
Report Figgis July 14, 2021 4:10 PM BST
* all together
Report roadrunner46 July 14, 2021 5:48 PM BST
saiydabad or cheshire academy look more interesting betting propositions at the prices, wouldn't have a clue which one would have the better chance, as im not betting in the race , theres no point watching their last race either, one of them in the place market, make more sense than backing favourite at the prices.
Report Sandown July 14, 2021 7:19 PM BST
On his run at the Curragh, Hurricane Lane should win this comfortably. I make him a an evens chance so 2.5 is acceptable . I have Alenquer at 6.5 and Cheshire Academy at 11.0.

Sorry for the after timing, but I had a decent EW bet on Adhafera which in my view was given too confident a ride finishing 2nd behind Babylone
who also finished well. Hopefully, HL will compensate partially.
Report .Marksman. July 14, 2021 7:34 PM BST
Good tipping Sandown!
Report FOYLESWAR July 14, 2021 7:48 PM BST
impressivw winner ,well done winners
Report Figgis July 14, 2021 7:56 PM BST
Very easy, well done backers. Quite surprised to see the time was slower than the fairly ordinary looking Gp2 fillies race, as it looked well run to the eye.
Report A_T July 14, 2021 8:00 PM BST
it looked well run to the eye.

really? what I saw was a typical French canter-to-sprint like we saw in last year's Arc - Buick judged the pace well and the others weren't getting closer at the end.
Report Figgis July 14, 2021 8:10 PM BST
I would need to see it again to be sure, and do a proper time comparison. But on first viewing it just looked the usual comfortable early pace you'd expect in a 12f race. Contrary to what some commentators imply, they don't need to go haring off in order to achieve a good time. They were fairly spread out approaching the turn, not climbing all over each other like you would normally get in a dawdle. They also seemed to quicken well before the approach to the straight, which would be plenty of time enough to counterbalance all but the slowest of early crawls. As I say though, would need to view it again, could be misleading.
Report penzance July 14, 2021 9:31 PM BST
Hurricane Lane won well but Doyle certainly asked
Alenquer a question.
Report roadrunner46 July 15, 2021 7:00 AM BST
HL went off a big price on the machine, commentary exaggerating the winning distance to 10 lengthsLaugh those french horses were useless, thought the irish derby was a weak race, that race was even worse, noticed the time of the previous race on the card was too was 0.72 faster with winner, albeit carrying 5 lbs less, WD winners
Report Sandown July 15, 2021 11:01 AM BST
The figures support Figgis's view that it wasn't a dawdle although it certainly helped to be on the pace which didn't suit the other fancied horses. Alonquer and Cheshire Academy were disappointing, nevertheless. HL was raised  2 lbs on RPR but on times the performance was below that at the Curragh, not that it matters now as the horse will be rested and probably aimed at the Arc.

The French going descriptions continue to baffle me. The ground was described as "very soft" just as it was in April when Cheshire Academy won at Longchamp but you wouldn't say that looking at the going allowances for both days. I would say that yesterday it was no worse than good to soft, possible nearing good ground. A mystery.
Report Figgis July 15, 2021 12:42 PM BST
yesterday it was no worse than good to soft, possible nearing good ground

Yes, couldn't possibly have been any slower than that.
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