Betfair Hurdle Newbury Feb 11th

Not one I fancy Felt.

Looks like a fair bit of slnw/rain next week and very cold so going likely to be dreadful. Low weight might be very beneficial.

Had a quick look last night and three that I jotted down were Edwardstone, Milkwood and Mack The Man.

Not sure if Milkwood is running so will wait until 5? day decs are out next week.

Dan Skelton has great record in these big handicap hurdles and Cadzand looks to have a big chance in this, sluiced in last time at Kempton where his jumping was quick and slick and he showed a great turn of foot after the last.
A mark of 138 looks well within his capabilities and being out of a Roselier mare you wouldn't think he would have any problems if the ground is really testing and more emphasis is placed on stamina.

Any chance of Newbury beating the weather this weekend ?

Still in there Feltfair.

11/11 previous winners aged 5 or 6,suggesting we need to find something on the upgrade.

Fair points Saritamar,both of his still entered,yard do like one normally for the county.Cadzand has won his last two on sharpish tracks,his point and nhf form suggest this may be right up his street,will dan the man unleash the real beast when the moneys down ?

Both the Ntd and Moore runners must enter calculations,I see "Nige" has pulled the original top weight.

Is there any chance we might see that Duffle Coat if its really chilly ?

P*ss poor record this end in recent runnings,always a tough one to work out.

Lets hope its on.

If it is on and only soft then Thyme White is a good thing imo. I would not be surprised to see him in the Champion hurdle as well.

Same with Buzz .

Notice that Henderson has booked a useful 5lb claimer on Buzz so have taken a little 22.

"P*ss poor record"

You are not alone Nocturnal.

This is definitely one of my favourite races of the year but it must be the challenge of unravelling the puzzle combined with the fairness of the track that appeals as was just looking through the list of previous winners and Landing Light in 2001 and Violet Dancer in 2015 the only winners I've backed in last 20 odd years

Haha my old man had four on the spin , Hill House , Le Vermentois , Rosyth and Elan . His son has yet to back a Schweppes winner !

All bets voided, all value evaporated.

Somebody looking to get a decent amount on at 23 Feltfair,you may be on to something.

Interesting to see how many stand their ground next weekend.

Paulo .... That Schweppes name,amazing how some races Immediately spring to mind when you mention an old sponsor,great memories of Newbury and this race,my first ever NH meeting,fell in love with it on that day.

Gutted with a 16/1 ap free bet on Thyme White. I will just have to start again. Still think it will win if no worse than soft.

I was just behind you Felt at 21 , but pleased to hear Nicky say that the CH entry is there in case he bolts up , here's hoping .

Cracking race on the cards - hopefully without the last hurdle carnage of last season (unless it benefits my horses obviously )
I'm assuming there will be a fair bit of rain over the weekend so have swapped stakes on my two.- if it had been drier Milkwood would have been the main bet.

0.75pt e/w Mack The Man 25/1 7 places
0.5pt win Milkwood 14/1

Milkwood last run was beyond belief and was remarkably he got so close after nearly being brought down twice. They have waited for this and 14/1 ew is worth a punt.

Looks a tough race to call as always - Introductry hurdle at the end of 2019 might hold the key

Mister Coffey 6/1 beat Shakem up harry (2nd in G1 latest) 25/1 beaten 1.5L (2lbs better off) - On to Victory (won latest) 14/1 beaten 4L (11lbs better off).

The last mentioned struggled to win that race last time out and form wasnt franked, however a big field and end to end gallop off 10 stone 1lb and with Tom Bellamy on board, wouldn't be suprised if it ran well.

Mister Coffey is a lot shorter then Shake'm upharry and 2lbs worse off. Was beaten by Benson and the horse that split em was well beaten in the Tolworth, that's not to say Galice Macelo didnt run below form in the Tolworth as the ground was desperate.

On to Victory 1pt @ 14-1, Shake'm up harry 1pt @ 25-1 & Galice Macelo 1pt @ 25- 1 for myself.

Annual Invictus e.w. Novice hurdler who could already give lessons, trainer shown an interest in this race with Remiluc 3rd last year and 5th before.

Wild Max e.w. 8lb rise for last win looks lenient.

If the ground seems to be genuinely g/s than I will be having a bit more on Thyme White. I think he will need good to show his true class.

Will stick to original picks For Pleasure and Buzz and will add Milkwood. All each way 7 places.

Had a shout 2 out with Thyme White but didn't get home in the ground. I still think there is a good race in him.

Annual Invictus just stole 4th place, ground drying up didn't help  and disappointed with his jumping. Will go back up in trip now.

Once again this race proves stats, trends, history, useful tools for these big h'caps.

24 hrs later,can still feel a rant coming on.

Gd/sft,soft in places ...... how many based their study on this ?

Questioned this course saturday morning on the NH thread,they seem incapable of providing an accurate going report,at any time of the year.

Schoolboy error on my part,should have known when the earlier 3m handicap was just 7.26 secs outside standard.

The winning time here was 3m 50.48 secs,slow by 2.48 secs according to RP.

Quite who that suited best remains to be seen,can,t fault the winner,best horse on the day.

How many of us watch these races back in any detail,compared to the study pre-race ?

I can still feel steam very close by,bear with me.

Which muppets set that pace,who also followed it,was my first thought.Getting it wrong as a one-off I get,but are there continual repeat offenders in the guess the clock game ?

Secondly,which trainer continues to use this race as a piece of work,no doubt with an eye to future handicaps for some of his horses?

Which horse/connections deserved a 40 day break for that effort saturday.One of the biggest handicaps of the season,yet that is not enough to stop them,without a word being spoken afterwards?

Really is beyond a joke whats happening daily,complete free for all for some outfits.

Saturday ..... Can,t even get the day right,off for a lie down.

Noc, do you mean Sunday? I'm not sure, don't know what year it is most of the time.

Thanks for the quiz in these 'nothing to do times'.

Only know the pace answer.

For Pleasure, but I wouldn't blame jockey.

Before race I thought he'd shown traits of a big improver or a complete nut-job. Impossible to settle, thought he was a bit Not So Sleepy ish. And on that flimsy evidence I'll be looking out for when he runs at Ascot.

Still can't believe I discarded Fifty Ball. Moore usually has 2 or 3 initial entries in this but just Fifty Ball this time and I still ruled him out.

Thought the bookies were really stingy ante-post, most were similar prices day before race unless they'd been tipped up.

Still feel like Alice in Wonderland betting on this exchange even after all these years.

Followed Annual Invictus price out from 29.0. to 70.0  thinking non-runner I'm doing my money. Yet he turns up. Curiouser and curiouser.

The market was voided, of course.

Edwardstone was just outside my main contenders even before he picked up a 5lb penalty.

But had days of fun trying to work it all out.

All the best.

Evening Souldancer

"Alice In Wonderland" ...... That did make me chuckle.

The pace looked suicidal,I think most of those in behind knew that from early doors.

I would agree re the markets .... At times it does make me wonder if I,m reading the wrong race.

Sent you PM,with a few clues,we all see things differently,part of the fascination.

Take it easy.