Horse Antepost
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13 Oct 20
09:00
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Date Joined:
03 Jul 11
Everyone might be suffering from deja vu after watching Gulliver sluice up on Saturday in the same big race it won last year but it seems bet356 are not as they are offering 20/1 on last year's balmoral winner ESCOBAR. Here is last year's race where he absolutely p1ssed up and went past Lord North like he was standing still..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihfLSOkWwHU
That was actually his last handicap run..this year he has been mixing it with the best and even managed to get placed in a group 2. However, like a lot of O'Meara's top horses they love a big field handicap where they can canter in behind off a strong pace and come with a winning run. He has got his rating back down to the same mark as last year but because it's an early closer race it will carry an extra 3lbs more than last year. That shouldn't stop him and the main thing with this trainer in these colours is whether they are trying to win and I'm sure they will be. Can't see it finishing out of the frame but I'm on the win and not sure if the 20/1 will last long as everyone else is shorter.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihfLSOkWwHU
That was actually his last handicap run..this year he has been mixing it with the best and even managed to get placed in a group 2. However, like a lot of O'Meara's top horses they love a big field handicap where they can canter in behind off a strong pace and come with a winning run. He has got his rating back down to the same mark as last year but because it's an early closer race it will carry an extra 3lbs more than last year. That shouldn't stop him and the main thing with this trainer in these colours is whether they are trying to win and I'm sure they will be. Can't see it finishing out of the frame but I'm on the win and not sure if the 20/1 will last long as everyone else is shorter.
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Replies: 22
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It's on my short list!
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am interested in his other as well, Orbaan
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King Ottokar. James Doyle booked. Got no run at Doncaster l.t.o.. Wants soft ground. Should go well.
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A superficial glance would suggest that Raaeq has a ton in hand and he must go close surely.
Not much of a price though. |
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A superficial glance would suggest that Raaeq has a ton in hand and he must go close surely.
Not much of a price though. |
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Any risk escobar may end up in the qe2?
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Not too long before the final fields,draw and stalls position are known.
Current ground (R Post) Soft,Heavy in places Stands side 5.6,Centre 5.2,Far Side 5.3 Round Course 4.6 The meeting 2nd oct gave it as 6.5 str,5.5 round course. The three races that day on the straight track were,3.1secs,1.81 secs,2.6 secs above standard. The three longer races,1m4f to 2m on the round,16.04 secs,21.02 secs,22.35 secs above standard. If we believe those times,are we racing on two different tracks ? Back in 2018 they gave it as soft,(Heavy on round course) Sands Of Mali won the champion sprint in 1m 14.21,just 1.81 secs above standard. Ascot is up there with cheltenham for me,almost impossible to predict what ground conditions are like. Add in any draw bias,depending on stalls position on the straight track,does it get any harder ? If that round course is 4.6,they will be out on their feet over the longer distances. Just a thought. |
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noc, following from ascot.co.uk/thegoing might go some way towards explaining the discrepancy in the going stick readings:
Stands side: 5.6 Centre: 5.2 Farside: 5.3. Round: 4.6. On Wednesday at 2pm. The next Goingstick readings will be taken on Friday 16th October. The readings may be slightly lower than expected due to aeration to the whole track carried out on Tuesday 6/10/20 Not much help to us as punters admittedly... |
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Many thanks Rease ..... Good to see you about,anything catch your eye saturday ?
For a typical Ascot flat meeting 60 grid locations are assessed using an electromechanical GoingStick, 24 on the straight course and 36 positions on the round course. Three "penetration" and three "shear" measurements, representative of forces exerted by the horses hoof when it is on contact with the ground, are taken in each grid. Volumetric soil moisture content data is also collected, meaning that 480 scientifically generated measurements contribute to each flat Going Report produced. Bit more than than two flatcaps and sticks then. It goes on to say how this takes 75 minutes,which begs just the one question; How can you get it so wrong,on such a regular basis,with 480 bits of Information to hand ? Stalls predictably on the far side saturday on the straight course. Does that mean there will be a golden highway up that far rail,even after the 2 milers have had a go ? Oh,and that aeration excuse,many Golfers on here can testify to that one  GL |
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Think more detail needs to be placed on OP thread :)
As OP suggested ESCOBAR sluiced up last year, with Lord North 2nd and Glen Shiel 4th. Lord North went on to win Group 1 and Glen Shiel places 2nd in a Grp 1. You have to say race form last year is pretty solid on this years form. Think there was only 2lb between ESCOBAR and Lord North last year so interesting to see why OMeara swerved this race to go into Group 1 level, surely needs more attention. Have done each way 80/1 for that race Back to Balmoral - I would give Kynren a chance ! |
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actually think hortzadar is worth a look hare, will like ground, nice weight, and although not one of my fav jockeys has the right person for straight track at ascot. draw isn't great( middle ) but at price worth a couple of quid.
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Thanks Iris for that further explanation why Escobar would have won after I've already lost my money.. I feel better now
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Greenside @ 46 on here for me.
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Favourite does look solid..Njord and Orbaan are the 2 I like at double figured prices
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I'm giving Tempus another chance having backed him in the Cambs. The ground was too fast for him last time and I'm hoping that it hasn't gone too much the other way. Still a decent EW price imo.
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Interesting that people want to lay solid stone at big odds on here, anyway I’m happy to accommodate the poor horse
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Judging by the betting it will be the horse ambulance for the stricken creature
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Bell Rock for me
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I hope you were on Giggity.
Harry / Uncle / Rease have weighed in with the superfecta. Quite remarkable from relatively few posts,take a bow the lot of you. Nothing changes here,anything drawn high might as well have stayed at home. Both photo finnishes .... the horse toward the far side gets up. So many decent horses appeared to underform,many by some way,probably just co-incidence. |
