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impossible123
13 Aug 20 19:52
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Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 8,549 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
This renewal looks a competitive one with Ghaiyyath leading the betting at a skinny 5/4; Lord North 4/1; Magical both 5/1; Kameko 2000G winner at 11/2 after swerving Prix Jacques Le Marois this weekend in France. Ghaiyyath beat an "80%" fit Enable on ground he liked in the Eclipse. The $64k question is can he deliver with Lord North and Kameko in contention? His trainer reckons he's matured and battle-hardened this season.

I think I'll look elsewhere until I'm certain Ghaiyyath can deliver regularly this season. Kameko (unexposed) perhaps after a couple of injudicious rides by his pilot; Lord North is improving too.
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Report Autocue August 18, 2020 9:34 AM BST
How is a classic winner unexposed? A lot of bull talked about this horse. I'm tired of hearing how unlucky he was last time. He got a great start on a track that favours front runners. The jockey didn't think he was good enough in that company.
Report impossible123 August 18, 2020 8:33 PM BST
Leave out Kameko then if you thought his Derby and Sussex runs were judicious. Nevertheless, I do not think he'd have beaten Mohaather in the Sussex either. The Juddmonte could be his optimum trip if his jockey develops a bit more faith and confidence in him. But, will he win? I think he'd if Gosden and Lord North are absent.

I'm still not a fan of Ghaiyyath despite his Eclipse win.
Report brigust1 August 19, 2020 10:59 AM BST
I am a Magical fan.
She beat the favourite easily in the Arc and ran Enable close in the Eclipse when Enable was fit.
She has found the winning way and the distance, I think, will suit her.
A fit Ghaiyyath beat a first time out Anthony Van Dyck at Newmarket by 2.5 lengths the same distance Magical beat him when he was fit.
Enable showed how much she needed the race in the Eclipse when she met Japan again next time out and thrashed him.
Unfortunately, Kameko is running which could be a fly in the ointment but I am a Magical fan and I think she will win.
Report driver2 August 19, 2020 11:25 AM BST
Funny, I'm torn between Ghaiyyath and Kameko and I was thinking that if I had to have a bet, which I wont, it would be to lay Magical!
Report brigust1 August 19, 2020 11:35 AM BST
You could be right Driver but I believe the fav may be over rated. He Spotify in Meydan who has been stuffed 3 times since he beat Anthony Van Dyck who has been stuffed further since and Japan who has been stuffed further since. The track and trip will suit him but I don't think he is a good thing by any means.
That's racing.
Report driver2 August 19, 2020 12:50 PM BST
Brigust, I can't get away from the sectional times that he put up in the Coronation, I tend to listen to what the right people say and I remember a good judge of the clock, whose name escapes me, saying that Ghaiyyath would probably have beaten anything on that day. Charlie Appleby, one of the most straight talking trainers we have, has said that Ghaiyyath has come of age and waxes lyrical about him. He could turn out to be the best of the older horses this year. As far as the 3 year olds are concerned, again the comments from Murphy and Balding after Kameko's guineas were compelling and I really believe that there's a lot more to come.
I wont have a bet as any one of the 4 main principles could win and the ground could yet play a part, I just hope the race is as good as we think it will be, Good luck with Magical
Report brigust1 August 19, 2020 1:21 PM BST
That is just hype, Driver. A commentator at Goodwood said Baattash was the fastest horse in the world. And if I remember the wind was behind at Newmarket for the Coronation Cup.
Report driver2 August 19, 2020 2:02 PM BST
Hype? That hype earned me a grand in the Eclipse! We'll know more after today wont we.
Report brigust1 August 19, 2020 2:05 PM BST
Hype was him saying Ghaiyath would have beaten anything. That was the hype I was talking about.
Report Figgis August 19, 2020 2:43 PM BST
From what I've seen most ratings firms have Ghaiyyath improving from the CC to the Eclipse and have him as a better than typical Eclipse winner. Whereas I have him running to the exact same mark in both races and rate him just an up to par Eclipse winner. You never know how tough and consistent any horse is going to be until it keeps doing it on the track. Ghaiyyath might be tougher than most but I will usually play the percentages and I think it's odds on that Ghaiyyath will regress somewhat from his recent form.

I still believe Kameko is a below average Guineas winner, so reckon he needs to improve again to take this. Magical has been remarkably consistent and I reckon including her allowance her very best form is as good as Ghaiyyath's. However, I already have her running very close to peak first time out this year. I have seen no improvement from 4 to 5 and her last effort saw her drop a few pounds. I don't pass her over easily as she definitely has the form in the book, but I'm thinking that as her level appears to have plateaued her best days are more likely to be behind her.

For me, Lord North was a revelation in the POW. I have him improving over a stone on what he did last year and matching the level Ghaiyyath has shown . I think the time comparison with the Hampton Court is very misleading. He looks very likely to run his race again and I am backing him pretty confidently.
Report impossible123 August 19, 2020 3:20 PM BST
Ghaiyyath is a different horse this season - well improved. And, well done backers.
Report Figgis August 19, 2020 3:24 PM BST
Very poor reading of the race on my part. Ghaiyyath better than I'd given him credit for and Lord North not even close to the same class. Well done winners.
Report driver2 August 19, 2020 3:24 PM BST
So finally you get it impossible, took you long enough!
Report brigust1 August 19, 2020 3:27 PM BST
Yes WD winners but why is racing not straightforward. The meeting started with runners ignoring the inside rail even Ghaiyyath ignored it but all of the others didn't. Inconclusive for me until I see the other races. I thought it was a known fact to ignore the inside at York when it rains. Buick knew.
Report impossible123 August 19, 2020 4:38 PM BST
'driver2', with respect my methodology is proven and has paid dividends so far. There's noting wrong being prudent and going against the grain; beating an 80% fit Enable and AVD needs affirmation. Today beating Magical by 3l (even over 10f) is a credible performance measured against Enable last season.
Report FELTFAIR August 19, 2020 5:21 PM BST
Brigust, Pyledriver scooted up the rail. Good horses win from anywhere.
Report brigust1 August 19, 2020 10:19 PM BST
Wrong Felt. Pyle Driver raced exactly where Ghaiyyath raced. Watch it again on Youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU3AiuJfnn4&t=188s
Report driver2 August 20, 2020 6:49 AM BST
impossible, I'll tell you why I'm always on your back, it was your arrogant reply when In put up Ghaiyyath as a good bet at 5/1 to win the Eclipse. "I'm not a fan of Ghaiyyath because he's just too inconsistent to be considered a serious challenger here." You were still at it after he won the Eclipse, you knew better that Charlie Appleby who told us all how much he'd improved mentally this year. I'm afraid you got under my skin and although I didn't have a bet yesterday, I was so pleased to see Ghaiyyath do it again and shut the doubters up.
Report FELTFAIR August 20, 2020 8:43 AM BST
Just seeing if you were concentrating Brig. Don`t think it made much difference to Ghaiyyath winning.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 8:57 AM BST
Maybe not Felt but when you see Pyledriver bolt up running down the very same strip of ground it does make you wonder. And it is a known fact to avoid the far rail and they were right up against it from before the 2f marker with Kameko right against the rail. Jockeys are little men that can ride, they don't always need brains. And the pundits at the course never mentioned it, just hype, that is all we seem to get nowadays.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 9:06 AM BST
And if you look at the last horse, she followed Ghaiyyath and instead of being beaten over 10 lengths by the other three according to ratings she was only beaten 4.75 by Majical, 3.5 by Lord North and 2.75 by Kameko that means racing where he did gave Ghaiyyath at least a 5 length benefit. Think about that one.
Report FELTFAIR August 20, 2020 11:50 AM BST
Perhaps the others were staying away from the winner to kid him into thinking he`d done enough.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 12:02 PM BST
I think the way Martin Dwyer swerved around the pack on Pyledriver to get back as far away from the far rail as he could was a good pointer. All the clues are there. Will be interesting in the Yorkshire Oaks today.
Report impossible123 August 20, 2020 1:22 PM BST
Irrespective of your posts on races it's neither here nor there with me. This's horse racing thus opinions aplenty similarly, so-called professional pundits/presenters, I generally ignore. If they were repeatedly profitable (like those in the City) they would be maximising their knowledge and not be feeding from the bookies trough and working in the media, period.

Regards Enable: If I'd known or Gosden was more forthcoming with her well-being and fitness eg taking more time to get fit, and only 80% ready for The Eclipse I probably would have gone for Ghaiyyath too given his fitness advantage. But world beater I still believe Ghaiyyath is not; he's a better horse than last season, I'd agree.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 1:50 PM BST
First race they ran down where Ghaiyyath ran. If Moore or Murphy doesn't race down the far rail what does that tell you?
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 1:53 PM BST
And it looks like the only horse on the rails finished last.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 2:20 PM BST
Second race and the two on the far side clear. Looks like that is the place to be on the track.
Report FELTFAIR August 20, 2020 2:22 PM BST
Keep on digging impossible123.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 2:56 PM BST
Notice they all swung wide coming into the straight keeping away from the far side. Murphy got onto the Gyaiyyath strip but kept going left. If he had pulled his whip through he would have won. No brains.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 2:58 PM BST
He will be flattered by this result and a lot shorter next time so may be opposable.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 3:20 PM BST
You can see Moore learned from his mistake yesterday he did everything to stop Love from hanging into the rail. That also contributed to how far he won because the others kept over to the rail.
Report FELTFAIR August 20, 2020 3:25 PM BST
Brig, you`re becoming obsessed. Ghaiyyath and Love would have won whereever they went and the others could do nothing about it.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 3:30 PM BST
I liked the way Buick pulled over a let them challenge up his inside yesterday. I am not saying they would have been beaten Felt but there is clearly a faster section of the course where all the horses are winning. It's blindingly obvious.
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 3:49 PM BST
WinkWink
Report brigust1 August 20, 2020 4:29 PM BST
WinkWinkWink
Report FOYLESWAR August 21, 2020 8:39 AM BST
ghaiyyath won well  and the probable best of the older horses over this distance but theres another who is red hot over the 10f trip and still progressing and could be one to put it up to ghayyath if they were to meet , jgs french derby winner  mishraff ,impressive turn of foot and a battler and  would certainly make it interesting .looks a serious horse.
Report FOYLESWAR August 21, 2020 8:41 AM BST
mishriff^^
Report brigust1 August 21, 2020 9:20 AM BST
You could be right Foyles especially if the going is on the soft side. All I was going was pointing out the clear track bias when York has rain. You don't know before the race how the jockeys will ride the track unfortunately because if I knew beforehand that Moore and Murphy would head for the far rail I would have lumped on the winner. The good thing is, I suppose that their defeats may mean they will be a better price next time whereas the winner's price will be shorter than it should. Jockey's baffle me sometimes.
The next day Moore steers clear of the inside on Love while her opponents went up the rail. It is almost as if they are saying how can we make these good things look better than they really are?
Report Figgis August 21, 2020 11:32 AM BST
I backed Lord North, but Ghaiyaath was clearly the best horse in the race on any part of the track.
Report Figgis August 21, 2020 11:34 AM BST
*Ghaiyyath
Report brigust1 August 21, 2020 12:49 PM BST
I am not disputing that. Where did I say he wasn't? I was just pointing out that the others, bar the last horse who followed the winner for most of the way and as a result ran several lengths above her rating, were inconvenienced and therefore, in my opinion, may be a better price because of that in the future. Don't thank me. That's OK. And for any doubters, I pointed out how that position was strengthened as the day went on.
Report Figgis August 21, 2020 1:18 PM BST
It is almost as if they are saying how can we make these good things look better than they really are?

Who are they?
Report brigust1 August 21, 2020 1:55 PM BST
You work it out F. When a horse beats others that are inconvenienced in one way or another can look better than they really are. Sounds like common sense to me. You really are going through the dregs F. Laugh
Report Figgis August 21, 2020 2:08 PM BST
When a horse beats others that are inconvenienced in one way or another can look better than they really are

That is a completely different sentence than this one

It is almost as if THEY are saying how can we make these good things look better than they really are

Who are "THEY"?
Report brigust1 August 21, 2020 2:29 PM BST
Ah. That's for me to know and you to wonder about. While you are looking for a life that is. Sad
Report Figgis August 21, 2020 2:31 PM BST
As I thought, another absurd conspiracy theory that you're unwilling to back up Wink
Report brigust1 August 21, 2020 2:44 PM BST
You are a clown Figgis. You do make me laugh.
Report A_T August 21, 2020 2:59 PM BST
"they" are presumably the malicious forces deviously trying to give high ratings to modern horses thereby causing great distress to admirers of horses from the old days.
Report brigust1 August 21, 2020 3:07 PM BST
The 'bagman' has turned up. Laugh
Report brigust1 September 25, 2020 4:10 PM BST
It now looks like the far rail was the place to avoid at York with both Magical and now Kameko rewarding me for my thoughts.
Report harry callaghan September 25, 2020 6:38 PM BST
you just cannot beat telling us a decent after the event comment can you brigust...

you certainly love one, well done you are clearly a very good...i've no doubt you will keep us all informed of the ones you have backed after the race of course, it's far easier that way for sure and we can all give you a good pat on the back after the event

personally and just for you're information i think magical copped a below ghaiyyath and kameko copped just an average field today but of course if was just that far rail at york that defeated him, not the fact he had to drop in grade in order to get his head in front today...but of course we should just credit you with that knowledgeable wisdom of the far rail at york it's so easy this gameCrazy
Report brigust1 September 25, 2020 8:51 PM BST
Up your's Harry. Have good one.
Report A_T September 26, 2020 10:15 AM BST
good to see Kameko winning again - that performance might get him within 3 or 4 lengths of Palace Pier at Ascot. But I suspect the owners might want to retire him on this win rather than just damage his reputation again.
Report brigust1 September 26, 2020 10:35 AM BST
You could be right AT. I backed him for the QE11 after York then laid him off on here to make a few quid. I didn't think Kameko is anything special and I certainly don't think he would have won at York I just thought he was better than that and because he was well beaten his price next time would be better than it should be. I think his price yesterday was much too high for what he has achieved. It wasn't a great race at all.
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