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brigust1
09 Aug 20 10:35
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Date Joined: 07 Dec 01
| Topic/replies: 12,512 | Blogger: brigust1's blog
Looks like a good race today. Is Earthlight as good as his figures show? Is there any depth in the race?

Earthlight won two Group 1's beating Golden Horde a neck and Raffle Light a neck.
Golden Horde beaten by Sceptical and Oxted in the July Cup.
Space Blues beat Duke of Hazard, D'Bai and Safe Voyage in his last 3 wins.
Hello Youmzain beaten in July Cup by Golden Horde won two Group 1's beating The Tin Man and Dream of Dreams.
Lope Y Fernandez (Ryan Moore) beaten by Pinatubo with Malotru third ( winner of Listed race at Lingfield).
Wichita (Dettori) excuses last time out, narrowly beaten and narrowly beat Pinatubo previously. Second in 2000 Guineas to Kameko.

Wichita stands out for me. Cheekpieces on first time and AOB says "Wichita never ran at anything less than seven furlongs but Frankie [Dettori] rode him the last day and said he'd loads of pace and that he'd be comfortable over this trip".

Positives he is the joint highest rated and has the best form and wearing cheekpieces for the first time. Great price!
Negatives are trip (although the give in the ground will be a positive and he has stamina for longer) and RM riding another.
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Report brigust1 August 9, 2020 11:48 AM BST
Draw not a problem and Frankie's only ride.
Report FOYLESWAR August 9, 2020 12:12 PM BST
was gonna post this up myself ,has decent form and i dont ilke no nayne vers over 1m plus so the gns run was very good and had pinatubo back in 3rd who has franked the form  ,todays trip could be ideal  his price looks too big to me and have taken the 14s each way and a smaller saver on hello youmzain at 9s e.way.good luck.
Report FOYLESWAR August 9, 2020 12:23 PM BST
was leading at  this trip in the guineas just got run out of it at the end by kameko who andrew balding described as "the best we have had at kingsclair for many a year " and you could say kameko was an unlucky loser last time so the form is not too shabby . also not beaten far by palace piers who looks top notch.






























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Report brigust1 August 9, 2020 12:30 PM BST
The form is there Foyles. I thought he had a great chance in the Sussex, he had excuses, but that may turn out to be a hot race.
I've had a nice bet as well, I couldn't seperate the rest so I will lay off at a reduced price in-running to make a profit either way. Just not yet sure what price to go in at. I think he will trade a lot lower in-running but I am not sure how strong the in-running market is.
Report FOYLESWAR August 9, 2020 1:38 PM BST
good luck brigust cant understand why he is such a big price tbh , so far the horse is very consistent and prob just been unlucky to come up against a few good uns on the day hopefull he may be a fair bit better at this trip  and the cheek  pieces do the trick,  i may be wrong here. but as they say if ya think the price is wrong act accordingly  which i have .
Report Figgis August 9, 2020 2:33 PM BST
A good, deep race, but I reckon on Earthlight's best 2yo form he is a cut above these. For me, his best form was the Morny. Even though Raffle Prize hasn't done much since, she was a very fast 2yo. I have Earthlight a bit below par when winning the Middle Park. Earthlight and Pinatubo were my joint fastest 2yos at the end of last season and I reckon either of them could've won this year's poor Guineas by a couple of lengths on their best 2yo efforts (assuming Earthlight would stay a mile). Unfortunately Pinatubo has gone backwards by a few pounds. Whereas I think Earthlight's recent run was better than it might've looked and, while I can't be certain, he looks very likely to return to his peak today. I make him a shade of odds on.
Report brigust1 August 9, 2020 2:44 PM BST
Hi Figgis, you could be right. They seem to be sticking to what he knows best and he could be anything. Too short for me though and this looks like by far the best race he has run in. Mums Tipple was 2nd fav in the Middle Park and he started at 11/4 that suggests to me his form prior to the MP wasn't that great.

Foyles the problem with stepping back in trip it is alright to say they have the pace but the pace difference between a mile and sprinting is pretty big. I hope Frankie is right.
Report Figgis August 9, 2020 3:02 PM BST
A backwards step for Earthlight but always a risk relying on 2yo form. Surprised that he actually went odds on as there seemed to be plenty of pundits willing to oppose him. Hands up, I thought Space Blues had to make more improvement than a few others to win.
Report brigust1 August 9, 2020 3:06 PM BST
Looks like Frankie was wrong. Never had the pace.
Report FOYLESWAR August 9, 2020 3:08 PM BST
Cry  the 2nd each way softened the blow somewhat !
Report brigust1 August 9, 2020 3:13 PM BST
The 4 year old won well Foyles. I did think the rails was the place to be when I first saw it but excuses can be costly. Didn't help mine it never had the pace even with cheekpieces on. AOB back to his non-existent drawing board.
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