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elisjohn
29 Jun 20 14:51
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Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 11,958 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
hopefully the covid virus wont disrupt the racing calender next year, (or nothing else) but i havent seen too much so far outside    r ascot to suggest a 1000 guineas   winner, the burke filly dandalla  looked good,  but the  horse that really  impressd me  was  frenetic, ger lyons filly who was so impressive at curragh last week,  she will take the beating in all 5furlongs/ 6 furlongs races at any level this year imo, but will she get a mile ?
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Report jamesp August 16, 2020 2:40 PM BST
Those two Frankel fillies are certainly bred to be smart - Zabeel Queen is out of a half-sister to Dubawi, and Snow Lantern is out of 1000 Guineas and multiple Gr.1 winner Sky Lantern - but it's hard to know the value of that Ascot maiden form.

Sacred is ante-post favourite for the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes next Thursday and it will take a smart one to beat her there.

Keep an eye also on next Saturday's Gr.2 Prix du Calvados at Deauville. This looks the obvious next step for Andre Fabre's unbeaten See The Rose, who readily accounted for Wedding Dance in the Gr.3 Prix Six Perfections last time. But Fabre could also be represented by the potentially smart Chantilly maiden winner Harajuku: if she's thrown into Gr.2 company on just her second start, that would be a tip in itself. Dandalla (the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes winner), Fev Rover (Richard Fahey's Sandown Listed winner), Pretty Gorgeous (runner-up in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes) and Tiger Tanaka (winner of today's Gr.3 Prix Francois Boutin) are other possible runners.

For once, Aidan O'Brien doesn't appear to have a stand-out filly so far this season, so next weekend's Gr.2 Debutante Stakes looks wide open. Donnacha O'Brien's filly Shale (by Galileo out of 1000 Guineas winner Homecoming Queen) looks the form pick, based on her comfortable win in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes last time, and hopefully this race will tell us whether or not she's a Gr.1 filly in the making.
Report jamesp August 20, 2020 2:15 PM BST
Miss Amulet had shown much improved form previously when beating the very useful sprinter Frenetic at Naas, and she made further improvement today at York to beat the well-fancied favourite Sacred in the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes (the pair clear). This represents quite smart 6f form, not a long way off Guineas standard (they were officially rated 103 and 104 before today's race and have probably improved on those ratings), but neither the winner nor the runner-up appeals as a Guineas filly for next year: they're both quite speedily bred and it's hard to see them improving for a step up in distance. Miss Amulet is by the sprinter Sir Prancealot out of a daughter of Oasis Dream who won a couple of modest handicaps over a mile: she's not bred in the purple, she's unlikely to get a mile and she's already had six races (mostly over 5f). One imagines that she will be kept quite busy this season, and in this sort of form she should be very competitive at around 6f. The runner-up Sacred, who had run a blinder in the Queen Mary, looked a bit keen early on and had every chance before being run out of it in the closing stages. She appeared to run her race, and I'm not convinced at this stage that she will improve for a step up in distance. Smart 6f form, but I doubt if we've seen a Guineas winner there.
Report jamesp August 21, 2020 11:56 AM BST
Heavy ground at Deauville has played havoc with running plans for the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados tomorrow. Andre Fabre relies on Magna Mater, who dead-heated in a minor Clairefontaine event on soft ground last time. Frankie Dettori takes the ride on No Speak Alexander for Jessica Harrington, wide-margin winner at Roscommon on heavy ground. Form pick is Fev Rover, winner of a Listed event at Sandown following a second place behind Dandalla in a Gr.2 on yielding ground. These join fellow Listed race winners Plainchant and King's Harlequin in an open-looking event.

There are eight declared runners in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes at the Curragh. Jim Bolger's wide-margin Galway maiden winner Meala heads the betting. She hadn't shown much in her first three races but impressed Kevin Manning, who reported afterwards: "Great attitude, very switched off and has a nice turn of foot. She's a filly that stays well and travelled very well in behind. We went a nice even pace but when I moved her out and asked her to quicken she did it in a few strides. She was very impressive." It will be interesting to see how she copes with this big step up in grade. Shale won the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes nicely and looks the form pick, but it's interesting that Joseph O'Brien is happy to tackle his brother's filly again with Silver Flash runner-up Pretty Gorgeous. O'Brien senior runs Mother Earth, who was an impressive winner of a Gr.3 at Naas before disappointing last time at the Curragh behind Aloha Star. Shale looks the most appealing at this stage (in terms of being a potential Guineas filly), but she will need to continue to progress to pass this latest test.
Report jamesp August 26, 2020 10:05 AM BST
The Queen Mary winner Campanelle posted the best performance by a juvenile filly so far this season (Timeform 116p) when comfortably seeing off the opposition in the Gr.1 Prix Morny on Sunday. You can watch the closing stages here:
https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/news/campanelle-powers-to-morny-glory-2382020

The ground at Deauville was officially soft but the winning time wasn't particularly slow (compared with standard), so they were getting through it OK. They didn't go a great pace and the winning time was nearly a second slower than a 6f handicap on the same card. With the Coventry and July Stakes winners behind, the form looks solid and it normally takes a very smart filly to win it. Will she develop into a top sprinter or a Guineas contender? Several RP experts have given their views on this subject, and I wouldn't disagree with them - she has a speedy pedigree and even though she was staying on strongly in the Morny and looks like 7f should be no problem, I'm inclined to agree that a straight mile in Europe next season might be a step too far: https://www.racingpost.com/news/race-reports/campanelle-sprint-sensation-or-classic-contender/447729

Frankie Dettori's immediate reaction was that the filly would get a mile (i.e. in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf later this year, which appears to be her long-term target). In the meantime, they are mulling over the possibility of running her in the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes. If you think she will get a mile on a straight track, then 25/1 for the Guineas looks massive!

Of greater interest as far as the classics are concerned was the convincing victory of Pretty Gorgeous (Timeform 114p) in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes at the Curragh on Saturday. The soft ground clearly suited her well and enabled her to reverse placings with Shale, who had beaten her quite comfortably in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes previously. It will take a smart one to beat her next time in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, and a mile will be no problem for her later on. I thought the post-race quotes of 16/1 (20/1 in a place) for the Guineas looked quite fair and reasonable. She's the most serious contender we've seen so far this season.
Report jamesp September 8, 2020 3:19 PM BST
Next year's Guineas doesn't seem to have aroused much interest so far, but there are three potentially informative Group races coming up in the next few days, which may shed a bit more light on an otherwise murky picture...

On Thursday at Doncaster nine fillies have been declared for the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes, and I'll be interested to see how Zabeel Queen and Indigo Girl cope with this big step up in class. Both won nicely on debut and are bred to be smart performers: Zabeel Queen is by Frankel out of a half-sister to Dubawi, and Indigo Girl is a full sister to Gr.1 winner Journey. Indigo Girl should be well suited by middle distances next year, while Zabeel Queen is the more likely of the two to be effective at around a mile to 10f next year. Pattern race form is represented by Star of Emaraaty (shock winner of the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes), Ubuntu (close third in a Gr.3 in Ireland), Prado (distant runner-up in the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes) and Dubai Fountain (beaten in two Gr.3 races). All of the fillies with established pattern race form look beatable. An impressive performance from Zabeel Queen would probably propel her to Guineas favouritism, but it's a hard race to weigh up: a couple of winners have come out of the novices race she won at Ascot, but the third flopped next time out.

Also on Thursday, seven fillies will line up for the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale at Longchamp, traditional prep race for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc weekend. I'll be keeping a close eye on Andre Fabre's filly Harajuku, who won impressively on debut at Chantilly. The fourth from that Chantilly maiden Asterella won by 5½ lengths next time at Deauville and re-opposes here. Pattern race form is represented by King's Harlequin (third in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados) and Coeursamba (close third in the Gr.3 Prix Six Perfections behind Harajuku's stablemate See The Rose).

There are still 18 fillies remaining in Sunday's Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh, and we'll find out the shape of the race later in the week. In anticipation of a smart performance on Sunday I have started my 1000 Guineas book with Pretty Gorgeous at 16/1.
Report jamesp September 10, 2020 6:32 PM BST
Interesting comments from trainer John Gosden after his filly Indigo Girl's win in today's Gr.2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster: "I see her more as a mile to a mile-and-quarter filly, I don't see her like her sister over a mile and a half. She travels strongly and has got a great turn of foot." Indigo Girl's dam won the Gr.1 Prix Royal Oak over nearly 2 miles (as well as a couple of Gr.2 races over 12f) and she's a full sister to Gr.1 12f winner Journey, so on breeding you'd have expected her to get middle distances next season. But clearly the trainer believes the filly will remain a mile to 10f filly next year, so she must come into the Guineas reckoning. The bare form of her win today is some way below Guineas class (the winning time was slow, only a couple of lengths covered the first four, and the exposed runner-up has an official rating of just 98), but she's clearly very talented and open to further improvement and may be given the chance to achieve a higher rating in either the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile or the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac. She's 20/1 for the Guineas with one or two firms (shorter with others), and that looks about right. I would say she has a bit of ground to make up on the best fillies (including Pretty Gorgeous and Campanelle).

There was quite a smart performance by King's Harlequin in the Gr.1 Prix d'Aumale at Longchamp this afternoon: she quickened up nicely 2f out and kept on well to hold off the challengers headed by Harajuku, who stayed on well for 2nd but was unable to get on terms with the winner. As in the May Hill, only a couple of lengths covered the first four and the winning time was quite slow. If these fillies were to meet again in a more truly-run race the places might be reversed. The winner paid a compliment to Fev Rover, Richard Fahey's highly regarded and improving filly, who beat her quite comfortably in the Gr.2 Prix du Calvados.
Report jamesp September 11, 2020 6:18 PM BST
Pretty Gorgeous heads 13 runners in Sunday's Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. On Debutante Stakes form last time she has little to fear from Shale and Mother Earth (both of whom reoppose). There are a couple of unexposed debut winners in the line-up, but this looks quite a straightforward task for the favourite if she can reproduce her Debutante Stakes form in less testing conditions. Best odds: 5/4 Pretty Gorgeous, 4 Shale, 11 Mother Earth, 12 Teresa Mendoza, 20 Thunder Beauty, Divinely, Oodnadatta, 25 bar.
Report thurnscoe thunder September 12, 2020 2:18 PM BST
Ive been really taken with 2 fillies so far Snow Lantern, and Love Is You.
I thought Snow Lantern was slow away and took some time to realise what she was doing but picked up really well when running on into 2nd behind Zabeel Queen and id be amazed if she didnt turn out superior to that one.
Love Is You pretty similar, nicely bred and once she knew what it was about she looked classy. Both 33/1 for the Guineas and worth an interest for me.
Report smithyads1 September 13, 2020 8:08 PM BST
Interested to hear jamesp's view on the moyglare. To my eyes it looked like shale had the run of the race but outstayed PG when she came to her. Clearly the two best fillies in Ireland. I'm on shale for the 1000 + the oaks and happy she will maintain  her form over PG upped in trip. Funny year and likely to be a lot of one/twice raced maiden winners come the end of the year who could make an impact on the 1000, in my view. For now shale is my idea of the winner.
Report FELTFAIR September 13, 2020 8:33 PM BST
Settled,travelled, quickened and battled. Can`t ask for much more at this stage but fantastic pedigree and I would expect her to progress.
Report Figgis September 13, 2020 11:24 PM BST
I have the Moyglare 5 or 6lbs below the normal Gp1 level for the race. I reckon Shale improved around 6lbs but PG was a few pounds lower than her previous run. I suppose both are open to still more improvement but I'll be surprised if we don't see some better contenders.
Report woodmanchester September 14, 2020 1:30 AM BST
Someone's put up 60.0 small 1,000 Guineas Dandalla

Gets my loose change anyway, weighing in at 65.0
Report impossible123 September 14, 2020 2:01 PM BST
I think the ground was the deciding factor yesterday. I understand Shale had 1st run, but Pretty Gorgeous easily outpointed Shale the previous occasion on easier going. She's the one for me in the Fillies Mile later next month, if she turns up and ground softer.
Report penzance September 14, 2020 5:45 PM BST
they were head to head for a while then
the winner started to get on top last
1/2F .
Report impossible123 September 14, 2020 9:26 PM BST
Minding vs Ballydoyle; Rhododendron vs Hydrangea; Fancy Blue vs Peaceful all over again. On soft going Pretty Gorgeous for me.
Report jamesp September 21, 2020 4:57 PM BST
I'm frankly at a bit of a loss as to how to explain the Moyglare Stud Stakes result. Pretty Gorgeous, who had readily outpointed Shale in the Debutante Stakes, had reportedly been in good form in preparation for the race and was sent off a very warm favourite. She came to win the race before flattening out in the final furlong. I can't see that the ground had anything to do with this reversal: it was genuinely good ground and the winning time was only 1.34s quicker than the Debutante Stakes. Shale is a fairly small filly with less scope for physical improvement than Pretty Gorgeous, so this was a disappointing performance by the runner-up. I fully expected her to confirm the Debutante form, and there don't appear to have been any obvious excuses. Perhaps jockeyship was a factor, with regular riders Gavin Ryan and Shane Crosse both unavailable. She raced a bit freely, so perhaps she just had an 'off' day. Or perhaps 7f is as far as she wants to go at this stage: despite her Debutante Stakes performance, which suggested that a mile next year should be well within her compass, there is perhaps now a slight doubt about her long-term prospects of getting a mile - her dam after all was a 6f performer (by the sprinter Compton Place). I still think she's probably the better long-term prospect out of these two smart fillies, but it must be borne in mind that Shale is by Galileo (whose offspring almost invariably improve from two to three) out of Homecoming Queen, who despite being quite a small filly herself kept improving during a very busy juvenile campaign before pulling off a shock wide-margin win in the 1000 Guineas: it would therefore be folly to write her off as a classic prospect.

There was an equally smart performance last Friday at Chantilly where Plainchant demolished her opponents in the Gr.3 Prix Eclipse. Having made the running, she quickened impressively from the front and readily came away to score very easily by 5 lengths in a fast winning time (1m 8.48s). It will be interesting to see whether Maurizio Guarnieri's filly gets supplemented for the Cheveley Park Stakes. She's clearly a very speedy and talented filly, and at this stage it's hard to envisage her developing into a miler next season: her breeding (by Gregorian out a dam whose sole win came over 5½ furlongs) doesn't offer much encouragement in that direction.
Report jamesp September 21, 2020 5:24 PM BST
We've just had the confirmed entries for this Saturday's Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes. Campanelle (the Prix Morny winner) has not been supplemented, and there's no entry either for Plainchant (the race comes too soon, just eight days after the Prix Eclipse). It looks a wide open renewal, with a number of useful fillies separated by just a few pounds on the ratings: Alcohol Free, Aloha Star, Dandalla, Dickiedooda, Happy Romance, Illykato, Miss Amulet, More Beautiful, Mother Earth, Sacred, Umm Kulthum, Zoetic. The unbeaten Dandalla will have her supporters, but the Gr.2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes form looks rather shaky: despite the 2nd and 3rd going on to record pattern race successes, the 3rd and 4th have since both flopped in Group company behind Miss Amulet (in the Gr.2 Lowther Stakes) and Happy Romance (in the Gr.3 Dick Poole Stakes). The Lowther form looks the best on offer, but frankly none of these fillies have shown top-class form so far, and nothing in this line-up appeals (at this stage) as a potential Guineas winner. Alcohol Free has shown lots of promise in her two starts to date, and was only narrowly beaten by the much more experienced Happy Romance at Salisbury last time: she has reasonable prospects of reversing that form and is worth considering.
Report impossible123 September 21, 2020 8:07 PM BST
I was disappointed with the run of Pretty Gorgeous in the Moyglare. I think the better ground and 7f were against her ie too quick and too short. Anyway I've done for the Fillies Mile at Newmarket next month. I hope she turns up; ground on the soft/softer side, and she wins. If so, she'd be a shortie for this race in 2021.
Report jamesp September 23, 2020 11:03 AM BST
A poor turnout of just five runners for Friday's Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket. Aidan O'Brien's filly Monday (who's also entered for the Gr.3 Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday) is a very interesting runner: after an unpromising debut run at Punchestown earlier this month on soft ground, she reappeared just nine days later and put up a hugely improved performance (on good ground) to win a 7f Listed race at Leopardstown readily from No Speak Alexander (OR 102). She's bred to be smart, being the first foal of the top-class Ballydoyle (winner of the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac, runner-up in the 1000 Guineas). Her main market rival looks to be the progressive Isabella Giles (OR 105), wide-margin winner of the Gr.3 Prestige Stakes on soft ground last time. The Gr.3 Princess Margaret Stakes winner Santosha (slowly away and never able to get on terms at York last time) could come into the reckoning if suited by the longer trip. The other two runners need to improve considerably. It's currently forecast to be very windy on the Rowley Mile on Friday afternoon, which makes predicting the outcome a rather tricky business.

Guineas betting remains wide-open: 12 Shale, 14 Pretty Gorgeous (they're 12 joint favourites with several firms), 16 Indigo Girl, 25 bar. An impressive performance from Monday would undoubtedly propel her to Guineas favouritism, and I have had a small interest on her at 33s.
Report jamesp September 23, 2020 11:05 AM BST
A couple of firms have priced up the Rockfel: 6/4 Monday, 9/4 Isabella Giles, 5 Santosha, 10 bar
Report jamesp September 23, 2020 1:46 PM BST
Cheveley Park Stakes betting is predictably wide open: 7/2 Miss Amulet, 7/2 Dandalla, 6 Sacred, 6 Umm Kulthum, 6 Happy Romance, 10 Alcohol Free, 10 Aloha Star, 12 bar.
Report jamesp September 27, 2020 2:59 PM BST
Nothing has come to light to explain Monday's poor performance in the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes on Friday. She clearly didn't give her running and was never travelling. Confirming that the filly wouldn't run in today's Gr.3 Weld Park Stakes, Aidan O'Brien reported: "I don't know whether it was the ground at Newmarket or whether we brought her back too quickly after Leopardstown, but that definitely wasn't her. I would say we will put her away now and bring her back next year as a three-year-old."

The Rockfel winner Isabella Giles continued her progression with a game front-running performance, but it's hard to know quite what she achieved in beating the 87-rated Nazuna and 83-rated Alba Rose, given that the two other runners Monday and Santosha both failed to give their running. She was given a 33/1 quote for the Guineas.

With only a couple of lengths covering the first four home, it was probably a far from vintage renewal of the Gr.1 Cheveley Park Stakes yesterday. Nevertheless the winner Alcohol Free is clearly a very useful filly who has the scope to develop into a Guineas contender next year. She will need to make further improvement and has been given quotes of 25/1 and 33/1 for the Guineas.

The Gr.3 Weld Park Stakes this afternoon was won by the exposed-looking Elysium (OR 85). The form looks a long way off classic standard, but the third Thinking Of You (out of a Galileo half-sister to Giant's Causeway) looked unlucky and could yet develop into a smart middle-distance filly next year.

Mehnah made a highly promising winning debut for Kevin Prendergast at Dundalk on Friday, dwelling at the start and having a lot to do to get into the race before showing a bright turn of foot to win comfortably. This Frankel half-sister to Irish 2000 Guineas winner Awtaad will probably not run again this season but is one to watch out for next year.

Perhaps the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac next weekend will throw up a genuine Guineas prospect. There have been precious few so far this season...
Report jamesp September 30, 2020 4:58 PM BST
19 fillies remain in Sunday's Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp, with a further declaration stage and supplementary entries tomorrow. Some bookmakers have already issued prices: 2/1 Pretty Gorgeous (as short as 6/4 with one firm), 8/1 King's Harlequin, 9/1 Fev Rover, 9/1 Tiger Tanaka, 10/1 Dubai Fountain, 12/1 Harajuku, 12/1 Thunder Beauty, 14/1 Mother Earth, 16/1 Coeursamba, 16/1 Tasmania, 20/1 bar.

There is considerable difference of opinion among the bookmakers: Fev Rover is as short as 100/30 with one firm, but 9/1 is currently available with another. If she's an intended runner (I don't know whether she is) she looks overpriced at 9/1. The form of her Gr.2 Prix du Calvados win has worked out better than expected, with runner-up Plainchant going on to a hugely impressive Gr.3 win over 6f, the third King's Harlequin going on to a clear-cut victory in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale, and the fourth No Speak Alexander chasing home the potentially smart Monday next time in a Listed race. She's a tough improving filly and should cope with the expected very soft ground (having won on similar ground in the Calvados). There's a slight doubt about her getting the mile, being by the sprinter Gutaifan, but she won going away over 7f last time and will probably stay. She's available at 33/1 for the Guineas.

The experienced King's Harlequin got the better of Harajuku in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale (the traditional prep race for this) last time, but the inexperienced runner-up was arguably given too much to do and has reasonable prospects of reversing the form if she's able to handle the very soft ground.

The ante-post favourite Pretty Gorgeous is on a recovery mission, having been turned over by Shale in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes last time. She'd previously beaten the same rival comfortably in the Gr.2 Debutante Stakes on soft ground. If getting the mile (connections seem confident that she will), she'll take some beating if back to her best form.

Charley Rossi's Tiger Tanaka will handle the ground and has already won over the trip. She was quite impressive last time beating a small field in the Gr.3 Prix Francois Boutin over 7f, but the form of that race looks quite weak for the grade and she will need to find plenty more.

Ken Condon's Thunder Beauty was having only her second career start in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes and showed huge promise, running on strongly from an unpromising position to finish 3½ lengths behind Shale. She has nearly three lengths to find with Pretty Gorgeous, but it's a far from impossible task and she certainly can't be ruled out.

Most of the others have had their limitations exposed in pattern company or are stepping up from minor stakes races.

I'm hoping that the favourite will get back on track for the Guineas, but I'm concerned that it may develop into a stamina-sapping slog in the mud. Connections may be tempted to wait for better ground in the Fillies' Mile at Newmarket.
Report FOYLESWAR September 30, 2020 5:59 PM BST
james what is  opinion on coolmores  santa barbara ? prominent in the 1,000 gns and oaks betting after taking debut at curragh last week ?
Report FOYLESWAR September 30, 2020 6:08 PM BST
fillies mile entry  worth a look at its debut win
Report jamesp September 30, 2020 6:31 PM BST
Well, jockey Seamie Heffernan was reportedly impressed by Santa Barbara's debut performance: "I've won on two of that family [Iridessa and Order of Australia] and I'd say she could be the best. I'd rate her highly." Breeding suggests that she will come into her own over middle distances next year: her half-sister Iridessa was a dual Gr.1 winner over 10f (she didn't have the speed to cope with Hermosa in either the English or the Irish Guineas, though she did manage to gain her revenge over the same mile trip in the Gr.1 Matron Stakes later the same year), and her half-brother Order of Australia has just won a stakes race over 12f. The grand-dam Starine was a dual Gr.1 winner over 10f, so I've no doubt that Santa Barbara (by Camelot) will get 10f+ next year. It's not impossible that she could have the speed to develop into a Guineas contender, but she's short on experience and the bare form of that maiden win the other day looks nothing special. She won very easily and she's clearly a very promising filly, but she needs to make her mark at a higher grade before she can be considered a genuine Guineas filly. I note that she's shorter in the betting for the Oaks (8/1-12/1) than she is for the Guineas (16/1-20/1), and that looks about right.
Report jamesp September 30, 2020 6:35 PM BST
Fillies' Mile betting is predictably dominated by Indigo Girl, Shale, Pretty Gorgeous, Isabella Giles and Fev Rover, all of whom have shown smart pattern race form. Santa Barbara is next in the betting after those at around 10/1.
Report FOYLESWAR September 30, 2020 6:38 PM BST
yes middle distances should suit  ,will keep an eye on her .
Report impossible123 September 30, 2020 6:42 PM BST
If betting is a good guide the 6/4 for Pretty Gorgeous for the Marcel Boussac reflects the chance of her turning out again for the Fillies Mile 5 days later.
Report jamesp October 2, 2020 12:33 PM BST
There were 14 final declarations for the Gr.1 Prix Marcel Boussac on Sunday. All the main contenders highlighted in my earlier post stand their ground. I'm happy that Pierre-Charles Boudot will take the ride on Pretty Gorgeous: he's firing in the winners at present (11 winners from 36 rides in the last fortnight).
Report impossible123 October 2, 2020 12:41 PM BST
I like Pretty Gorgeous in the Marcel Boussac as I thought her last defeat was more likely ground induced; 2/1 from 6/4, depth of opposition or ground? The distance looks ideal for her based on her last win.
Report FOYLESWAR October 2, 2020 1:19 PM BST
i took the 66/1 for santa barbara guineas /oaks double a few days ago  ,couldnt get much on but at that price ya dont need a lot on , dont usually do that type of bet but thought it was worth a few groats . love did the double and she is  stoutly bred although obviously had more exp  than santa barbara but this filly has the breeding ,potential and connections ..
Report FOYLESWAR October 2, 2020 1:37 PM BST
also took the 25s b365 santa bar for the guineas each way , was impressed by that debut ,the fillies mile will tell us more .
Report jamesp October 4, 2020 2:26 PM BST
I think we can safely put a line through the Prix Marcel Boussac form. The winner Tiger Tanaka, who won three claiming races earlier in the season, clearly handles heavy ground very well, but the third Rougir (beaten a couple of lengths) had looked no better than a handicapper in her four previous outings, so I'll be amazed if this has any bearing on next year's Guineas. There were several hard luck stories in what developed into quite a rough race.

Hopefully we'll get another chance to assess Pretty Gorgeous, absent today due to the contaminated feed debacle, in next Friday's Gr.1 Fillies' Mile.
Report impossible123 October 4, 2020 3:19 PM BST
Indeed. I've her in doubles and trebles with Palace Pier and High Definition.
Report jamesp October 7, 2020 12:28 PM BST
11 fillies have been declared for the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile on Friday (listed here with current best available odds): 3/1 Indigo Girl, 3/1 Shale, 7/2 Pretty Gorgeous, 6/1 Isabella Giles, 11/1 Zabeel Queen, 18/1 Dubai Fountain, 20/1 Mother Earth, 22/1 Lilac Road, 40/1 Seattle Rock, 40/1 Snowfall, 40/1 Star Of Emaraaty. Shane Crosse returns to partner Pretty Gorgeous (having missed the ride on her in the Moyglare Stud Stakes), and Rab Havlin retains the ride (in Frankie Dettori's absence) on Indigo Girl.

A fascinating renewal in many respects. Will Indigo Girl have the speed to cope with some high class 7f performers? Soft ground will place the emphasis on stamina. Indigo Girl is the only filly among the leading contenders to have won over the trip in a 'proper' race (in the Gr.2 May Hill Stakes), where she still looked inexperienced but won quite readily in the end (only two lengths covered the first four home): she holds four of her rivals on that form, is open to further improvement, and the ground should hold no fears (she won on soft ground on debut). Zabeel Queen, similarly inexperienced when finishing a close third in the May Hill (when a heavily backed favourite), can't be ruled out with any confidence if she has learned to settle better (she was very keen in the early stages at Doncaster). The Moyglare winner Shale and runner-up Pretty Gorgeous renew rivalry once again: this will be their fourth encounter, with Shale currently leading by two victories to one. Both have won over a mile (albeit in slowly-run maidens at minor tracks) and both have won on soft ground. Aidan O'Brien's two runners Mother Earth and Snowfall should ensure a strong pace, so it's all down to how they are on the day (hard to predict at this time of year): everything went right for Pretty Gorgeous in the Debutante Stake, but she raced a bit freely last time in the Moyglare - if back to her best, she must have a reasonable chance of reversing placings with the tough and consistent Shale, but it's too close to call. Isabella Giles won what turned out to be a very 'soft' renewal of the Gr.2 Rockfel Stakes last time (in the sense that only three of the five runners gave their running), and this represents a much stiffer test over a longer trip. This potentially has the makings of a proper Guineas trial: an impressive performance from any of the first five in the betting would mark them out as a strong Guineas contender.
Report jamesp October 7, 2020 12:48 PM BST
10 fillies have been declared for the Gr.3 Oh So Sharp Stakes on Friday. This race rarely has much bearing on the 1000 Guineas, though Miss France did go on to win the Guineas in 2014 after landing this race in 2013. Joseph O'Brien's Thinking Of You (out of a Galileo half-sister to Giant's Causeway) was unlucky in running in a Gr.3 at the Curragh last time and looks a smart prospect. Nazuna represents the Gr.2 Rockfel form and it will be interesting to see how she fares in this slightly lower grade (but perhaps more competitive) race, considering her best previous effort had been in a nursery off an official mark of just 80. Saffron Beach was a wide-margin winner on debut over course and distance recently and falls into the 'could be anything' category. An open-looking race: you can get 4/1 the field. Worth keeping an eye on, as an hors d'oeuvre before the Fillies' Mile main course...
Report jamesp October 7, 2020 3:01 PM BST
Latest Timeform ratings for the leading juvenile fillies suggest that there are several fillies verging on Guineas class, with the doubtful stayer Campanelle the only one to have achieved the sort of rating one would look for in a potential Guineas winner:
116p Campanelle
114  Shale
113  Pretty Gorgeous
112p Alcohol Free
111  Tiger Tanaka
110  Miss Amulet
110  Umm Kulthum
109p Tasmania
108  Isabella Giles
[101P Indigo Girl]
Report giggitygiggity October 7, 2020 6:01 PM BST
SHALE 12/1 .. no need to overcomplicate things..just look for Coolmore's top Galileo.
Report jamesp November 6, 2020 2:25 PM GMT
It will be fascinating to see how the Gr.1 Prix Morny winner Campanelle copes with the step up to a mile at Keeneland this evening. We know that she handles firm ground, and the fast conditions will also help her to get the trip. If she wins or runs a big race, connections will surely be tempted to bring her over for the Guineas next year.

The other interesting contender is Mother Earth, who put up a career-best performance last time in the Gr.1 Fillies' Mile (beaten two lengths, possibly given too much to do). That was on soft ground, and her only career win was also on soft ground, so there's a big question mark about her ability to cope with firm ground this evening. Her sire Zoffany and dam (by Green Desert) were both adaptable ground-wise, so she may be OK on it. A mile should be her trip next season. At this stage she looks like Aidan O'Brien's main contender for the mile classics.

Miss Amulet is sprint-bred and stepping up from 6f for the first time. I'd be surprised if she lasts out the mile, but you never know.

Oodnadatta (trained by Jessica Harrington) is an interesting runner: last seen when third in the Gr.1 Moyglare Stud Stakes, her pedigree is an interesting blend of speed and stamina. If she's done well in recent weeks and hasn't gone over the top for the season, I could see her running a big race and putting herself in the Guineas picture.

I'd be a bit surprised, based on what we've seen of her in the UK, if Roger Varian's Nazuna proves good enough.
Report jamesp November 7, 2020 12:29 PM GMT
A smart performance last night in the Gr.1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf from the unbeaten US filly Aunt Pearl, who hared round the tight bends and won unchallenged. Considerable merit, however, must go to Mother Earth who came from a long way back and stayed on strongly up the short stretch to finish second, just ahead of fellow Irish raider Miss Amulet. Mother Earth clearly acts on any ground and I don't think she necessarily needs a longer trip - the tight turning track was unsuitable, the race wasn't run to suit, and she tried to make her challenge from an impossible position. A mile is probably the right trip for her and she should be much happier returning to the straight Rowley Mile in the Guineas. She has a couple of lengths to find with my main Guineas fancy Pretty Gorgeous on the Fillies' Mile form, but she was possibly given too much to do on that occasion, and 20/1 Mother Earth looks a very fair price for the Guineas (for anyone looking for a saver or an each-way bet).

Miss Amulet ran a fine race in third, proving that she stays a mile (albeit on a tight turning track on firm ground), though I don't see any particular reason for thinking that she will reverse placings with Mother Earth over a mile next season. Campanelle, who was up with the pace, faded in the last half furlong and looks like she will be best at shorter distances. Oodnadatta was always towards the rear after a tardy start and never got into the race. Nazuna (the Rockfel Stakes runner-up) was similarly quite a long way back in the early stages and never looked like she would get competitive.
Report impossible123 November 7, 2020 6:36 PM GMT
Good analysis 'jamesp'. It looks another monopolistic 1st 2 Guineas for The O'Briens' eg Pretty Gorgeous/Thunder Moon (Joseph); Mother Earth/Santa Barbara & Battleground/Wembley (Aiden).

The others might not get a look-in.
Report jamesp November 9, 2020 5:06 PM GMT
Another filly to keep an eye on next spring is the smart and progressive Lullaby Moon (-101311), who recently won the Gr.3 Prix Miesque over 7f at Chantilly. Ralph Beckett's filly was stepping up to 7f for the first time and showed a smart turn of foot once a gap opened up on the inside rail to shoot clear in the final furlong, winning comfortably by a couple of lengths. That was on heavy ground and the winning time was very slow (even allowing for the conditions), 12.52s slower than standard(!), but it looked quite a smart performance and the form has a solid Gr.3 look to it - runner-up Asterella and fourth Coeursamba had been beaten by similar margins in the Gr.3 Prix d'Aumale. Lullaby Moon had previously won the Redcar Two Year Old Trophy (Listed) over 6f from a big field, beating the 105-rated Zamaani. Three of her four wins have been on soft or heavy ground, but she's also won on good ground (quickening up to win a Goodwood novices event on debut). She's by top-class miler Belardo out of a 5f handicapper (by Indesatchel), so there's no guarantee that she will get further than 7f, but she would be an interesting contender in one of the 7f Guineas trials in the spring.
Report FOYLESWAR December 31, 2020 7:04 PM GMT
aidens  joan of arc (galileo- yoursothrilling )  debuted november at dundalk over 7f btn , related to milers and 10f top class performers ,heavily backed 0/30 into 11/10 btn nose by hazel ,obvious potential bred in the purple  and related to gleneagles , vatican city etc, bit of a dark horse and 33s or better for the guineas worth watching
Report impossible123 January 16, 2021 10:27 AM GMT
Pretty Gorgeous has been matched at 20 here others still solid. Market manipulation or something else?
Report jamesp January 31, 2021 12:36 PM GMT
I don't think the tiny amount matched at 20 has any significance. The price quickly reverted to its previous level, though there isn't much liquidity in the market. People aren't queuing up to back Pretty Gorgeous, but it's the end of January and there's not much interest at the moment. The filly was out cantering on the gallops a couple of weeks ago, and she looked well.
Report jamesp January 31, 2021 12:40 PM GMT
re: Joan Of Arc. I agree she's one to keep an eye on. The Guineas will surely come too soon, but she should make up into a very nice three year old.
Report FOYLESWAR January 31, 2021 9:12 PM GMT
coolmore have been getting plenty of exp into their gns fillies ,the last 2 almost looking slightly exposed  mother earth has had even more races as a juv than those 2 , 9 in total ,it dont seem to matter with this yard  they still seem to improve  again as 3 yos although the last 2 love and hermosa were galileos ,i also  think mother earth is worth a bet she will go there battle hardened and 20s each way  or better is fair imo.
Report FOYLESWAR January 31, 2021 10:08 PM GMT
mother earth 25s sly
Report jamesp March 5, 2021 7:40 PM GMT
Following publication of the Guineas entries this week, Joseph O'Brien gave an update on Pretty Gorgeous: “She is obviously a course and distance winner so we know she gets the trip well. I was very pleased with the performance in the Fillies' Mile. It was a brave performance as she had a bit of an interrupted preparation going into the race. She is an exciting filly. Her pedigree suggests she will be open to stay further than a mile as well which gives her plenty of options. Like with Thunder Moon, she has wintered well and I'm pleased with where we are. She was consistently solid last season and hopefully we can keep it that way. She was fine on both soft and good ground so she is versatile ground-wise. A decision on whether she has a prep run will depend on how she is training and how we feel closer to the time.”
Report impossible123 March 6, 2021 8:29 PM GMT
Cheers 'jamesp'. I hope Joseph secures a double in the 1st 2 Classics.
Report FOYLESWAR March 21, 2021 6:44 AM GMT
joan of arc runs today at the curragh 2.30 over 7f , outstanding pedigree sisterto 6 winners ic gleneagles ,mavellous ,happily , dam a group 2 winner half sister to giants causeway ,just the 1 run at 2 narrowly btn by more exp rival . noticed shes been cut to 25s from 33s  by some firms . havent backed her for anything but interesting .
Report impossible123 March 21, 2021 8:05 PM GMT
Sorry! Typo error. I meant to put up 2000G.
Report FOYLESWAR March 21, 2021 8:13 PM GMT
joan of arc won  her maiden today more workmanlike than impressive but open to any amount of improvement .
Report impossible123 March 21, 2021 8:40 PM GMT
Unless their old man can conjure something up from last season the 2 O'Brien boys could have it between themselves with either Shale (good ground) or Pretty Gorgeous (softer). The winner today Joan Of Arc (Aiden) is only 10/1 with most bookies (are they for real?), but 16/1 with 'sly' and 365.
Report FOYLESWAR March 24, 2021 6:32 PM GMT
santa barbara into fav for the guineas ,aiden o b put up a very positive mention in his atr stable tour today ,2 shes done unbelivibly well in physical terms over the winter ,she goes through her work unbelevly well , she shows a lot of speed and has always worked with an awfull lot of class .wether we start her in the guineas trial at leopardstown or go straight to the guineas at newmarket we havent decided yet , we wont overace her we will keep her runs to a minimum if we can ,she shows an unbelivable amount of class at home ,in terms of her stamina shes by camalot so that will give her a chance of staying a mile and a quarter maybe further but she does show a lot of pace she showed a lot of pace on her debut ,she shows a lot of pace at home she just toys with horses in her work. we are very excited by her .
Report FOYLESWAR March 24, 2021 7:07 PM GMT
^she looks like a 5 yo filly aob said of santa barbara
Report FOYLESWAR March 24, 2021 7:10 PM GMT
soz "she looks like a 5yo colt^^^^^
Report impossible123 March 24, 2021 10:09 PM GMT
Santa Barbara 8/1 into 9/2 (as short as 10/3) - very short, just on bullish comments by her trainer.
Report FOYLESWAR March 25, 2021 6:57 AM GMT
yes 9/2 is  very short on what she has done on the racecourse, its what she is doing at home  ........... with this mob the rush of money is usually  significant .
Report impossible123 March 25, 2021 3:34 PM GMT
I'd be crushed if Santa Barbara wins this. Her short price defies logic. I'm on Pretty Gorgeous (with Shishkin), some with High Definition (Trixie); Envoi Allen could be an expensive unshipped post Epsom.
Report differentdrum March 25, 2021 5:11 PM GMT
I don't think the bar was set very high last year. O'Brien should have a pretty good idea what it takes to win a Guineas so the price is only short if he is talking a load of bull. Hopefully, for those who are on, she is too good for Moore to mess things up.
Report impossible123 March 25, 2021 5:17 PM GMT
Even the prices of Ballydoyle and Minding were significantly larger then Santa Barbara presently is; the prices of AOB's 2000G colts barely reflected his enthusiasm in the betting market.
Report FELTFAIR March 25, 2021 7:10 PM GMT
Moore does not "mess things up"
Report jamesp April 1, 2021 3:14 PM BST
Aidan O'Brien has been extravagant in his fulsome praise for Santa Barbara, based on her dominance on the gallops (nothing can match her, evidently), her physical appearance, and her sheer class. He does sound very excited indeed about this filly. So it's no surprise that bookies have taken swift evasive action and brought her down to a very short price. I can't possibly back her (or advise anyone else to back her) at current odds, as I always use racecourse evidence as the basis for betting, but it is very possible that she will win, and win easily, if she can transfer her scintillating home work to the racecourse.
It would be a remarkable training feat to win the Guineas with such an inexperienced filly. All of Aidan's previous 1000 Guineas winners had several races as juveniles (most of them competing in pattern company). Winter was the only one who did not make an appearance at pattern level, running three times in maiden company. Virginia Waters ran four times including Gr.3, Homecoming Queen ran 11 times including Gr.3, Minding ran five times including Gr.1, Hermosa ran seven times including Gr.1, and Love also ran seven times including Gr.1; all achieved a Racing Post Rating of 98+ apart from Winter, who was trained by David Wachman as a juvenile and did not race outside maiden company. Santa Barbara won her median sires maiden race easily (RPR 91), but in quite a slow time; the runner-up was beaten in all three subsequent races, and only one win (in a nursery) was recorded by the 11 horses that raced subsequently. On racecourse form you'd have to conclude that she's a promising filly who deserves a step up in grade, maybe a crack at a Guineas trial, and she's bred to be quite smart (she's a Camelot half-sister to Gr.1 Breeders Cup Mile winner Order Of Australia, whose European form was only about Gr.3 level, and multiple Gr.1 winner Iridessa, officially rated 116, in addition to several very moderate performers).
On racecourse form, Aidan's best Guineas prospect looks to be Mother Earth who improved significantly in the autumn and ran with great credit in the Gr.1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. If Santa Barbara is well ahead of that filly, and if she can transfer that ability to the track, then she's going to be very hard to beat. But it's all hypothetical at this stage.
Report FOYLESWAR April 1, 2021 3:35 PM BST
nice write up james agree with you on santa barbara i have laid some off for a profit  but kept a good bit ,on form she has it to do but as you say aob seems very keen and he would know ,weather she can repeat what she has been showing at home we will see ,he has been a bit quiet about mother earth but she has a decent chance if ling up imo.
Report impossible123 April 1, 2021 4:24 PM BST
AOB says Santa Barbara has the pace for this race too, and the stamina for 10f and 12f. If so, another Minding then. I may put her in some small stake doubles/trebles, but cannot back her singly on what she's done.
Report differentdrum April 1, 2021 6:13 PM BST
jamesp would have been an excellent post if it wasn't just a fleshing out of the points I had already made on the Santa Barbara thread. At least the Mother Earth bit was original.
Report impossible123 April 1, 2021 10:08 PM BST
If so, Pretty Gorgeous ought to be fav after the no-show shenanigan in France prior to the Fillies Mile at Newmarket. But for AOB Santa Barbara ought to be 16/1 at best on given form.
Report FOYLESWAR April 7, 2021 7:26 AM BST
pretty georgeous entered in the 1,000 gns trial at leopardtown this weekend ,also joan of arc ,empress josaphine ,mother earth shale
Report impossible123 April 7, 2021 5:07 PM BST
She is. I think she'd prefer a softer surface (good to firm at present) thus may not turn up. Also, she'd be giving 3lbs to the others except Shale her nemesis in the Moyglare.
Report jamesp April 8, 2021 12:27 PM BST
differentdrum  April 1, 2021 6:13 PM BST
jamesp would have been an excellent post if it wasn't just a fleshing out of the points I had already made on the Santa Barbara thread. At least the Mother Earth bit was original.

Oh, I haven't looked at the separate thread and didn't even know there was one, to be honest. I've just been keeping this thread open on a favourites tab. I'd already commented on Santa Barbara at the end of September (on this thread).
Report FOYLESWAR April 10, 2021 6:33 PM BST
1,000 gns trial tommorow leopardstown ,10/1 joan of arc looks too big to me superbly bred (galileo-yoursothrilling ), and improving .won a 20 runner 7f  maiden at the curragh  on soft and the step up to a mile will suit ,heffernan on stablemate empress josephine but with so many good und in the yard might not be so significant will have a saver on heffernans at 5s those 2 will do for me .
selection joan of arc 10/1 each way  bog and empress joshephine 5/1 win bet bog good luck opinions encouraged !
Report FOYLESWAR April 10, 2021 6:44 PM BST
ryan on donnachas shale and fav here ,last i heard shale hasnt grown much since last season and a 3 pound penalty prob the one to beat on form but up against potential improvers tommoz  .
Report jamesp April 11, 2021 3:27 PM BST
Mehnah was always going to be one to watch this season (as pointed out on this thread towards the end of September last year): this Frankel half-sister to Awtaad made a big impression when winning a Dundalk maiden last season, despite dwelling at the start and giving herself a lot to do. She made a similarly tardy start in today's Guineas trial at Leopardstown, racing in last at halfway before picking up in eye-catching style inside the last, just failing to get up, losing out by a head to the big outsider Keeper Of Time. The bare form looks shaky, and no doubt some of the O'Brien runners were far from fully wound up, but it was a highly promising seasonal debut and she can't be ruled out of the classic picture with any confidence. The favourite Shale (beaten nearly 3 lengths in 5th) ran a flat sort of race, and it remains to be seen how much improvement she will produce next time: she was quite a small filly last year (like her Guineas-winning dam), but being by Galileo she could go on and put this performance behind her. Joan Of Arc ran a promising race, coming to deliver her challenge in the last quarter mile before weakening in the latter stages to finish 6th (beaten 3¼ lengths).
Report blackbarn April 11, 2021 5:10 PM BST
I agree with you James re Mehnah.  I had flagged her up on the Hamdan RIP thread. She is as you know not entered in the UK Guineas but is, in the Irish one. I guess they may consider supplementing her for Newmarket, but that will depend on how she comes out of today's race, and how the two Varian Z's have wintered and are performing at home.
Report penzance April 11, 2021 7:20 PM BST
I like Indigo Girl for the Guineas,does have a bit
of a tendency to lose a length or two at the start
though.Could be Gosden's only 2nd winner of this.
Think she's a very good filly,myself.
Report impossible123 April 11, 2021 7:36 PM BST
Re: Indigo Girl. Did Gosden not allude to she'll be aimed at middle-distance races (possibly not Guineas)? Just recently it was the Prix de Diane (Epsom not mentioned).

Once again AOB cannot but wax lyrical about the well-being and potential of Santa Barbara. AOB: "Santa Barbara is doing very well. She's going thro' her work in 2nd gear with all the fillies."
Report penzance April 11, 2021 8:07 PM BST
just looked she is a bit weak on here(18s).
Was around the 12s mark a few weeks back.
Report penzance April 11, 2021 8:10 PM BST
cheers,imp,just seen she may go Pretty Polly.
Guineas still on the agenda aswell.Annoying
when they do that.
Report elisjohn April 11, 2021 8:57 PM BST
wasnt dancing brave 8/1 fav for 2000 before craven, bloody hell this obrien filly 5/2 for 1000 , madness
Report impossible123 April 11, 2021 10:15 PM BST
But for Pretty Gorgeous Santa Barbara would have been much shorter than 5/2 (2/1 with most). A shocking price for a filly that's only won a maiden race; if she wins her prep easily she'd most likely be odds-on, I believe.
Report FOYLESWAR April 12, 2021 9:28 AM BST
think she is going straight there imp .
Report impossible123 April 12, 2021 2:47 PM BST
I hope Santa Barbara does that as it'll give Pretty Gorgeous a chance to be recognised as a serious contender (esp on softer going). However, I think AOB will run her in one of the Trials in Ireland.
Report jamesp April 15, 2021 5:43 PM BST
Gosden hinted once again today that Indigo Girl will only be aimed at the Guineas if it's soft ground. Otherwise he sees her more as a 10f filly (Prix de Diane is a likely target).

Sacred was the only juvenile filly that impressed me at Royal Ascot last season, but I've always had doubts about her getting a mile. I thought she made a nice winning reappearance in the Nell Gwyn yesterday and is definitely worth her place in the Guineas line-up. There must still be a doubt about the trip, but she's a classy filly, who was not far off the top level last year. A few more pounds improvement needed.

Another with stamina doubts is the Cheveley Park winner Alcohol Free, who will run at Newbury in the Fred Darling on Sunday. She will need to settle better than she did on the Rowley Mile last autumn, but she's already not far off Guineas standard and should get the 7f trip on Sunday. Andrew Balding's runners have been going quite nicely, with a double at Newmarket this week.

It's a very strangely lop-sided market, with the promising Santa Barbara a crazily short 2/1 favourite. She could be a superstar, of course, but she hasn't proven it on the track and is still very inexperienced. I'm still keeping faith with Pretty Gorgeous, and I'm not concerned about the ground with her - she goes on any surface and certainly doesn't need soft ground (in fact, her action suggests she should be best on good or faster ground).
Report impossible123 April 15, 2021 6:54 PM BST
Santa Barbara is a silly price unless one is privy to inside (work) info. As such, what about her prospect in The Oaks? Will she stay? Pedigree wise probably, but AOB has indicated she's pacey. I do agree Pretty Gorgeous has the form and the stamina for this. I was impressed with her performance in the Fillies Mile after the debacle over feed at Longchamp on Arc Day; an easier ground will suit even more.
Report sageform April 18, 2021 12:34 PM BST
Alcohol Free should win today but I am not convinced she will stay a mile.
Report sageform April 18, 2021 1:04 PM BST
Snow Lantern good enough? Clearly stays a mile and saw off some useful colts there at Newbury.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:05 PM BST
Nice performance by Snow Lantern in the opening mile maiden at Newbury this afternoon. Quickened up nicely and the front three pulled a long way clear. She's clearly pattern class and Richard Hannon must be tempted to let her take her chance in the Guineas.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:06 PM BST
Whether she's good enough remains to be seen. Let's see how the winning times stack up later on the card.
Report sageform April 18, 2021 1:12 PM BST
The next 2 in the market were second and third and Derab had an RPR of 100 so it might easily be good enough.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:14 PM BST
There's reportedly 'a chance' that Snow Lantern will go for the Guineas. A decision will be made tomorrow. She will also be entered for the Oaks.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:16 PM BST
Derab's unadjusted RPR was 87 for that second to La Barrosa last season (strong maiden form).
Report sageform April 18, 2021 1:26 PM BST
Thanks. Yes, sorry about the 100, I forgot the weight adjustments. Need about 106-110 to win a 1000 Guineas.
Report jamesp April 18, 2021 1:43 PM BST
It usually takes a filly capable of about 115 (OR or RPR) to win the 1000 Guineas. There are several fillies who were already close to this sort of rating on last season's form (Pretty Gorgeous, Alcohol Free etc.).
Report jamesp April 19, 2021 12:03 PM BST
I think we should regard Alcohol Free's narrow win in the Fred Darling at Newbury yesterday as simply a good solid piece of work, probably the first time this year she has been asked to do anything serious. She was woolly in her coat and is sure to come on considerably for the run. The bare form is quite weak for the grade, with 79-rated Primo Bacio (100/1) close up in fourth, beaten 2½ lengths. The two placed fillies were promising unexposed types, have clearly done well over the winter and were entitled to surpass their previous ratings. Much more will be needed in the Guineas, and I'm far from convinced that she will get the mile trip in a strongly-run race. As in the Cheveley Park last autumn, she took quite a keen hold (perhaps just freshness), and she will need to settle better in the Guineas. The winning time was nearly half a second slower than the Greenham, adding to the impression that the form is nothing special.
Report impossible123 April 19, 2021 7:05 PM BST
Shocking to see the price of Snow Lantern (beaten by Zabeel Queen) shorter than Pretty Gorgeous the winner of the Fillies Mile and conqueror of Zabeel Queen. Similarly, One Ruler fav for the male equivalent despite beaten by Mac Swiney who'd been comprehensively beaten in the National Stakes by Thunder Moon, St Mark's Basilica and Wembley.
Report elisjohn April 20, 2021 6:29 AM BST
doubt snow lantern will get the oaks trip  ?,( betfair under rules of a particilar race eg derby gns used to put the confirmation date, 1st entries , supp dates etc etc    just noticed they dont have it anymore)
Report jamesp April 20, 2021 11:37 AM BST
Snow Lantern is a crazy price for the Guineas. She impressed in her maiden at Newbury, but she needs to find a huge amount of improvement (about 20 lbs, I would estimate) on that form in a very short space of time. She's inexperienced, she's also reportedly highly strung, and surely the Guineas will come too soon for her.
Report FOYLESWAR April 20, 2021 6:35 PM BST
hannon........snow lantern misses gns and goes to york
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