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sintonian
10 Jun 20 19:26
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
| Topic/replies: 28,213 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
Wichita 7/4
Pinatubo 15/8
Palace Pier 6/1
Threat 8/1
16/1 bar

Wichita & Pinatubo both face very quick turnarounds having posted big efforts in the guineas. They'll have to be extremely durable to win here against some classy opponents.

Palace Pier hacked up at Newcastle on Satruday beating a well regarded type conceding 7lb, but it was a handicap from an OR of 98 so even if he's Group 3 class he should have done that. Chance

Threat looked quality in patches last season, winning two Group 2 , but personally not so sure he is the most resolute and needs to prove his stamina.

For me the standout bet is Positive at 16/1. He beat Kameko in the Solario Stakes at Sandown last season when looking a big baby (they were both inexperienced at the time) before he went on to run second to Pinatubo as Goodwood. He then found the ground to Soft in the Dewhurst. Clive Cox reports him to be in rude health and they missed the Guineas to go for this. Massive price.

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Replies: 35
By:
Howellsy
When: 10 Jun 20 19:43
I totally agree with you, as I suggested on another thread. Palace Pier is a joke price and the Guineas principals have to back up after a fortnight. Threat is much more exposed than Positive who has been aimed for this rather shrewdly. I wouldn't expect him to beat Wichita or Pinatubo if either can repeat their Guineas form, but he's booked for 3rd and possibly a win if both fade close home. 16-1 is a truly aberrant price.
By:
Hibore
When: 10 Jun 20 19:57
I agree Positive is a massive price. I’m on Cool
By:
unclepuncle
When: 10 Jun 20 21:06
Positive looks a big price on the Sandown and Goodwood runs. Threat looked good at York and Doncaster though.

However if he runs I'll give Kinross another goCrazy assuming he is a juicy price - 25/1 now but no idea if he is running so will hold fire.
By:
elisjohn
When: 10 Jun 20 21:10
is arizona still in this ?
By:
WhiteHatJon
When: 10 Jun 20 21:29
Very intersting call, I'm always interested in 16/1 AP bets.

The main angle for me surrounds the front 2 in the betting and also the very significant market move on the day of the 2000.

Arizona was clear second fav up to the day of the race, RM on top and second string Wichita allocated to FD. Before anybody says AOB often wins with second strings, agreed, but not with FD on board.

The money on the day strongly suggested Wichita was the best and with a trainer like AOB and his record in the race, I took note with interest.

We all know what happened, I am of the strong view that the best 2yo of last year was beaten by a couple of really very sharp, well developed and well prepared 3yo's.

Kameko looks a really nice animal and finished the race in the last 2f clearly the stronger horse, obviously, and it looks like further will be his game. Wichita out ran the champion 2yo from last year fair and square, when the market suggested he would be in the frame.

Pinatubo was a personal disappointment for me, but the move to 7f on a course like Ascot will certainly suit, if he has recovered.

If you pushed me into into it, I do not think there will be much between the front 2 at Ascot, but with such a short turn around however, there must be doubts about either or both.

You have made a very logical call to put up an outsider in this race, and I wish you well.
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 11 Jun 20 18:58
This is over a mile Jon not 7 furlongs.
By:
WhiteHatJon
When: 11 Jun 20 21:04
Apologies, you are clearly quite right laying.

My mind must have switched off when I saw the 7f first part of the distance in the hope that would suit Pinatubo, the additional 213 yds obviously didn't register within my pickled brain last night.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Jun 20 21:09
All is not lost. The explosive volcano could atone big time.
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Jun 20 10:28
Palace Pier raised 11lb to an OR of 109.
By:
elisjohn
When: 14 Jun 20 17:54
sintonian, have you realised your mistake, only noticed nowGrinWink.

ps
not sure if this is 6 day decs but seems 9 still in including kameko and juan elcano so i doubt will have 8 runners
By:
elisjohn
When: 14 Jun 20 17:57
no sorry its tomorrow decs
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Jun 20 08:53
I'll take Pinatubo to lord it over Wichita (again) on last season's exertion. I also think his defeat in the Guineas could be ground induced and a lack of fitness; Palace Pier needs to improve massively to be in the mix.
By:
elisjohn
When: 15 Jun 20 15:26
10 declared.  pinatubo and wichita 7/4 jf with 365. arizona is in at 6/1
By:
elisjohn
When: 15 Jun 20 15:27
the little mistake sint was the date on the thread Wink
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Jun 20 16:30
Final decs is tuesday ie 72hrs prior to raceday; Wichita and Pinatubo are 7/4 and 15/8 respectively.
By:
elisjohn
When: 15 Jun 20 16:50
yes today is 6 day decs for saturday, there is also 11 left in the coronation including peaceful, but obrien says its maybe no for her. also declared are quodilateral   and so wonderful

final decs will be wednesday
By:
impossible123
When: 15 Jun 20 17:07
I meant wednesday is final dec for St James's and Coronation Stakes; 365 have Peaceful as 7/2 fav for the latter despite is a more maybe no than yes, according to her trainer; Quadrilateral who was a bit lit up lat time is 4/1. The ground will be easier too.

Pinatubo and Quadrilateral for a quick double.
By:
elisjohn
When: 17 Jun 20 11:15
7 run in both races, arizona is in the st james palace, but peaceful is out of coronation, though so wonderful is in
By:
impossible123
When: 17 Jun 20 15:33
Another showdown between Pinatubo and Wichita; Palace Pier is the freshest, but needs to improve loads. In the Coronation Stakes the absence of Peaceful was expected with its proximity to Irish 1000G, and the easier ground anticipated come the weekend; Quadrilateral for me if connections allow her to run her normal race eg tracks leaders and pounces late.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 19 Jun 20 20:43
Couple of plays in this for me. Laid Pinatubo @2.74  & backed Palace Pier @5.1
By:
unclepuncle
When: 20 Jun 20 09:52
Well the 2,000 Guineas form hasn’t exactly been franked by any of those horses who have run this week.
As such I’ll take a chance on Threat at 12/1.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 20 Jun 20 21:47
well done miller double wammy
By:
elisjohn
When: 21 Jun 20 08:36
yes miller well done, the 1000 form well and truely smashed in the coronation as well, reckon i,ll be laying love for the oaks
By:
Millerracing67
When: 21 Jun 20 15:28
Cheers lads. Though was getting a touch hot under the collar coming to the furlong pole!!!!!???!!!!
All's well that ends well. Think Pinatubo will be very tough to beat back at 7f, if it's still going ahead this strange season, the G1 7f race in France that Too Darn Hot won last yr looks a perfect fit for him, he prob has enough natural speed for the July Cup?
By:
sintonian
When: 22 Jun 20 14:19
PP a very strong stayer at the trip, looks better than the winning margin suggests imo.

Positive ran ok in foourth, travelled well but didn't pick up, then stayed on. Perhaps needed the run.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 23 Jun 20 12:50
Yes Sint, the winner won a shade cosy in the end, looks like 10f could well be within his compass, interesting to see where they go with him next?
Would love to see him in the Juddmonte at York. Positive ran well, in what was a rather messy race at times. Having watched the race a few times now, he got checked a bit, which cost him momentum, poss just lacking in a touch of tactical speed as the pace lifted big time over 2 out. There's defo races in him, tho prob not at G1 level??
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 23 Jun 20 15:50
BHA have the winner at 120
A bit different from Timeform

Laugh
By:
brigust1
When: 23 Jun 20 16:08
What was Timeform's rating? Imso
By:
ImSoLuckyLucky!
When: 23 Jun 20 16:39
A mere
131

Grin
By:
brigust1
When: 23 Jun 20 16:48
They know they are in the sh*t they are are going to hammer everything that moves. Interesting days ahead.
By:
Figgis
When: 23 Jun 20 18:13
The problem is they went overboard about Pinatubo last year and they also overestimated how close he ran to his best form in the Guineas. The performance by Palace Pier was only ordinary for the grade, in my view, and, regardless of any sectional upgrades they might want to give the colt, I'd be all over Alpine Star if they met.
By:
brigust1
When: 23 Jun 20 18:59
^ Could not agree more about Palace Pier. He may well prove to be up to that sort of rating, very close to Kingman, but it has been an ordinary start to the season so far. Interesting times ahead.
By:
Figgis
When: 23 Jun 20 19:07
For me he's about 9lbs behind Kingman. It is a performance that wouldn't have won any of the last 10 Guineas and would only have dead heated with this year's (poor) winner.
By:
sintonian
When: 28 Jul 20 22:26
Siskin for me tomorrow, he's touching 5/2 on here and I think that's decent. Although nothing from the Irish Guineas has come out and won, Lope Fernandez got within a lenght of Pinatuba last time in France.

I think given he's drawn in stall 1 and there is no guaranteed pace, he's best equipped to deal with it.

Kameko would need an eyes out pace all the way over a mile to win again imo.

Re Postive MM, I think he just needs dropping in class and back to a mile.
By:
sintonian
When: 28 Jul 20 22:28
*Miller
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