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14 Mar 20 18:30
Date Joined: 07 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 12,583 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Will he have trained on and/or retained his superiority over his counterparts this season? I hope so. Another year of mediocrity 3 yr olds will not instil or invigorate enthusiasm in the sport so lacking after the flop of Enable in The Arc, and retirement/sad end of Roaring Lion.
Pause Switch to Standard View Pinatubo (king of 2 yr olds)
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Report FOYLESWAR March 16, 2020 8:01 AM GMT
would say earthlight french gns more likely
Report FOYLESWAR March 20, 2020 7:58 PM GMT
£75 on vatican city av 50/1 on here £20 on siskin 18/1  among others
Report elisjohn March 21, 2020 5:57 PM GMT
curragh flat on next week, so hopefully well get the irish 1000/2000 even behind closed doors, wont be any guineas at newmarket, just hope r ascot is on
Report Howellsy March 22, 2020 11:15 AM GMT
Even if it's possible to run the meeting of Royal Ascot, behind closed doors or otherwise, most of the races won't make any sense without the context of the season beforehand. It'll be horses' first runs of the season. What has to happen is to start the season with the Guineas meeting as soon as we get the green light and take it from there - derby trials etc. When the weather becomes untenable in November, run the remaining fixtures through the winter on the sand.
Report impossible123 March 22, 2020 8:25 PM GMT
Run the Guineas behind closed doors, if necessary. Horse racing really does not need racegoers esp at a time like the present. As long as the horses are immune to Covid-19 the meeting ought to be on.

Cheltenham went ahead without any restriction!
Report impossible123 March 25, 2020 5:31 PM GMT
Will the King be allowed to dazzle his supporters on 2nd May at Newmarket? I hope so with or without racegoers as long as the main media are there with or without presenters. I hope this monster is truly the 2nd coming.
Report foxy March 25, 2020 8:13 PM GMT
I should think there’s no chance with a crowd there on that dateSad
Report Figgis March 26, 2020 5:21 PM GMT
If we get a Guineas, Pinatubo may only need to retain last season's ability rather than have to improve, but whether he will be as good this year is anybody's guess. Following his Curragh win I initially went overboard in rating him but after further revision I downgraded him just before the Dewhurst. When revising an earlier rating, or even just an opinion, there's always the possibility of overthinking the matter and it's the original view that turns out to be the correct one. Whereas most people seemed to view his Dewhurst win as a worse performance, I have him running exactly to his revised Curragh rating, with Arizona returning to his Coventry form, so in this instance I'm very satisfied with the revised Curragh rating.

Obviously he was a very good 2yo. In my view, on last year's form he's good enough to win a regular standard of Guineas, but no better than that. I think he was flattered at the Curragh, with the rest running garbage performances. He may win the Guineas or another Gp1 somewhere this year but I very much doubt he's any kind of superstar.
Report elisjohn March 28, 2020 10:31 AM GMT
supposed to be confirmation of entries deadline yesterday for the race
Report brigust1 March 29, 2020 12:30 PM BST
I agree with Figgis that Pinatubo only needs to retain last seasons form to win the Guineas but I do think he has the potential to go all the way.
His first two runs were not impressive over 6f but when he stepped up in trip his stamina really shone. The Dewhurst was run on soft ground so it isn't easy to know what the pace was like with the Coventry winner making the running and finishing a clear 2nd. The 2nd favourite was ridden by Moore and beaten comfortably. If they did go steady it would have suited Arizona and that may account for the last 2 furlongs being a sprint. Which I don't think suited the fav.
Given good ground and a strong pace or running over a longer trip will definitely suit Pinatubo and I think he will go far.
Report brigust1 March 29, 2020 12:38 PM BST
If it is run and he wins the Guineas I would swerve the Derby where AOB would be mob-handed go for the St James Palace Stakes, the Eclipse, Juddmonte then the Arc. Simple.
Report cryoftruth March 29, 2020 11:02 PM BST
Pinatubo has little prospect of getting much more than a mile, either on pedigree or style of running..

I tend to disagree with figgis. I thought his Dewhurst win was below his best form. Shamardals tend not to like soft going and his class got him home in spite of the ground.

I remember his win at Royal Ascot. Coolmore really fancied their horse in that and were rather shaking their heads after Pinatubo romped home.

He was a very special 2yo. His size might suggest he lacks scope to improve but we will only know when he runs.
Report brigust1 March 30, 2020 9:39 AM BST
Good morning Cry.
I'm not sure what you mean about Pinatubo's style of running. He seems to settle OK and has an extended finish when he is asked the question. Even in the Dewhurst on soft ground he looked like he was going away at the finish unlike anything else in the race.
I know breeding is important and his trainer thinks on breeding he is likely to get 12f but if push comes to shove he thinks he will be a 10f horse.
And I really cannot see Godolphin sitting on him as a miler. That is why I think, if he wins the Guineas, they will be looking to step him up to 10f because that is en route to the best races. Of course, I could be wrong. That's the beauty of racing.
Report cryoftruth March 30, 2020 1:59 PM BST
Hiya Bigrust. Hope you and yours are keeping safe.
I take back my rather lazy post. For some reason I had in mind that Pinatubo’s relatives especially his siblings did not stay well. However one by Dubawi stayed 15 furlongs and won over 12 on dead going. Although Dubawi has a slightly greater influence for stamina than Shamardal, on pedigree there seems no reason why Pinatubo should not get or even relish 10 furlongs or more.
One slight reservation is just how much blinding speed he has. On all his wins bar the Dewhurst, he showed a serious turn of foot, and that is what I meant about running style. Horses with that sort of pace that stay well are rare. Looking back Mill Reef was one such that springs to mind but they just don’t come around very often!
Pinatubo seems to lack the physical scope to improve from 2 to 3. But Mill Reef was no giant and that never stopped him!

I am sitting on a big bet for me £36 @ 18/1 for the Guineas. I expect the Guineas to be called off in line with recent luck.
Report brigust1 March 30, 2020 4:31 PM BST
Great bet. Have you laid it off? 

The Mill Reef race you showed was on heavy ground Cry. If you want to see a sprint finish
Report cryoftruth April 1, 2020 10:26 AM BST
I was looking for this video of the Brigadier for ages so many thanks. Probably his best effort ratings wise, although his Guineas win was the most famous.

But Mill Reef was more of a middle distance horse.
Report cryoftruth April 1, 2020 10:27 AM BST
I have laid it off but it would still be sore if it was voided.
Report brigust1 April 1, 2020 11:24 AM BST
In one aspect I agree about Mill Reef's stamina which I think enabled him to outstay his opponents in the Gimcrack on that heavy ground but I think he was primarily a miler/10f horse who had the class to stay 12f just like Brigadier Gerard.  Mill Reef's breeder famously said he would stay 12f over his dead body.
Sadly, because BG's trainer hated the press, and we were regularly told not to talk to the press, a lot of rubbish has been printed in the absence of an opinion from the right sources.
Report cryoftruth April 1, 2020 12:50 PM BST
I don’t really agree with that. Mill Reef could not have sluiced up in a Derby and an Arc if he had not really stayed. The record says Mill Reef was really a middle distance horse and that is surely correct.

I take the view that Mill Reef was poorly ridden in the 2000 Guineas. They thought they only had to beat My Swallow not realising what a monster they had from Major Hern. I think Mill Reef would have been a length or so closer to The Brigadier if ridden more conservatively in the Guineas. However only one horse I have seen would have beaten the Brigadier over a mile, and that is only probably by not much more than 1 length if that.

Its a great shame that the 2 only met once. The rematch over 10 furlongs would have been some race. I personally believe the Brigadier was the faster horse  though and would have won again, but not over a mile and a half.
Report brigust1 April 1, 2020 2:45 PM BST
Actually, Cry Mill Reef never sluiced up in the Derby he was ridden out to beat Linden Tree by 2 lengths. And you have to remember he was a precocious American bred when it was thought that they had the edge early in their careers over the homebred horses. In the King George on fast ground and getting a stone he easily beat the Italian horse Ortis who was a mudlark and in the Arc, also run on firm ground,  Mill Reef was drawn in 7 with Pistol Packer drawn 18, Cambrizia 17 and Caro 15. Mill Reef made straight for the rails where he remained until well in the home straight. Cambrizia, Caro and Pistol Packer made up late ground on the outside but Mill Reef had gone. Golden Horn ran the same race and JG never thought and still doesn't think he was a 12f horse.
Mill Reef's only other run over 12f was in the Coronation Cup where Joe was determined to make him stay. They thought that was the chink in his armour and he nearly achieved it. Mill Reef did not have a lot left and never ran again.
I do believe, and I believe the form book backs me up, that BG would have beaten MR over any distance on any ground and I believe that even more so as a 4-year-old.
In the 2000 Gns it was BG's first run of the season and it was the first time he had been in a race. When Joe picked him up and gave him a backhander he was so surprised he kicked up a clod of earth trying to react but when he was balanced, as Geoff Lewis said when he arrived at Mill Reef's girth the game was up and he was never further ahead than at the line.
Had Brigadier Gerard not run according to the betting and the formbook Mill Reef beating My Swallow narrowly with Minsky 5 lengths away would have been the exact and predicted result. Yet others still try to question it.
Report cryoftruth April 1, 2020 4:49 PM BST
Hi brig

Nice debate as ever.

Mill Reef got tired in the Guineas, the only time he never ran on strongly in spite of what you say about his hat trick of unbeaten efforts over 12 furlongs in 3 group 1s.

The most objective assessment of the merits of BG and MR has been by Timeform. I am not a slavish adherent to their assessments, but they had no reason to be biased as they had no connection to either stable of MR or BG. They assessed them both as 141 rated horses at the end of their 3yo seasons. Unless they were quite up the poll, MR must have run very considerably better after the Guineas, something that coincided with him stepping up in trip. I don’t think this was a coincidence but its only an opinion.

I doubt Mill Reef could have beaten BG over anything less than a mile and a half, maybe not even over that trip.

Maybe we can just agree to differ but also agree that the Brigadier was a truly great horse with hopefully an everlasting stream of admirers old and new. History will hopefully remember him very fondly.

Of course BG improved again at 4, quite remarkable given he started on 141. I think he ended with 144 a pound behind Sea Bird and 4lbs behind Frankel. Still third best ever European flat horse is not shoddy.
Report brigust1 April 1, 2020 5:42 PM BST
It is a pity, Cry, that the only race you think Mill Reef never ran on strongly was the race where he clearly ran to form. Still there you go.

As far as Timeform goes I have always been a fan and never complained in 50 years even though there were glaring discrepancies in their calculations. The distance Sea Bird 11 won by in the Arc was never questioned until 2012. I wonder why? If the distance was as is now suggested less than 6 lengths then BG should have headed their list since 1972. Similarly, the fact that Tudor Minstrel really only won his position by winning a 2000 Guineas where his main opponent Petition was injured and never again found his form that year and as really a one-trick pony who couldn't stay 10f let alone 12f.

I have the greatest respect for Mill Reef and I have him in 2nd place as far as overall great racehorses are concerned behind BG and ahead of Dancing Brave and Sea the Stars.
Report cryoftruth April 1, 2020 10:28 PM BST
One horse around not long after I was born was Ribot. I wonder if he was underrated by Timeforms 142 rating. He did some astonishing things. Incredible that henwon his first Arc at 9/1 or something bizarre.

From Tony Morris this was nice:

Let’s reflect first on who Ribot was.  He was bred by the Razza Dormello-Olgiata (Federico Tesio and the Marchese Incisa della Rocchetta) and foaled at the Sussex branch of England’s National Stud on 27 February 1952.  His dam Romanella, who had been speedy but jady during her racing career, was paying a return visit to Tenerani, who had covered her in Italy in the previous year.  Winner of the Derby Italiano and St Leger Italiano at three, Tenerani had won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes and the Goodwood Cup in England at four, proving himself a dour stayer.  He had yet to be represented on the racecourse when he began the English phase of his stud career at a fee of £250.

Tenerani and Romanella were both Dormello-bred, and Tesio, who was always his own trainer, did not have much respect for either, the former because of his lack of a turn of foot and the latter on account of her imperfect temperament.  He had no great hopes for the product of their union and paid no particular attention to the young Ribot, still a plain and under-sized individual as a yearling.  He made no entries for the colt in the Italian Classics.

But the man they called the ‘Wizard of Dormello’ was not to be permanently deceived.  Ribot’s progress on the gallops in March and April enabled Tesio to see the colt in a different light and he then felt sure that he was destined for a brilliant future.  Sadly, Tesio never saw that potential realised.  He died on 1 May 1954, just over two months before Ribot made a winning debut in a five-furlong event in Milan.

Ribot had only two more runs as a juvenile, scoring a comfortable victory over six furlongs in the Criterium Nazionale in September before thwarting the very speedy Gail by a head in the Gran Criterium over seven and a half furlongs in October.  As Gail went on to beat older horses in the all-aged Premio Chiusura, it was not surprising that Ribot was named Italy’s champion two-year-old.

Ribot started off at three with a six-length win over stable-companion Donata Veneziana in the Premio Pisa, his first race away from Milan, then, back at his home base, he trounced Gail by ten lengths in the Premio Emanuele Filiberto, the ten-furlong event that routinely featured as the principal trial for the Derby Italiano.  It was obvious then that Ribot’s omission from the Derby entries had been a mistake.

In July he had only his proven inferior stable-mate Derain to beat in the eleven-furlong Premio Brembo, and, having accomplished that readily by a length, he had his first race over a mile and a half in the Premio Besana in September.  Derain was again his runner-up, but ten lengths in arrears this time.

After seven starts and seven victories, Ribot obviously commanded respect, but what was anyone to make of his form in small fields in Italy when he turned out for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe?  Longchamp punters were not particularly enthused, allowing him to go off at nearly 9-1 in a field of twenty-three.  The race was a revelation, Ribot winning by a margin that the judge under-estimated as three lengths.

Ribot was still not finished for the season.  He returned home for a Premio del Jockey Club contested on heavy ground and won that by fifteen lengths from Norman, a previous two-time winner of that event.  How good was this champion?  It was still anybody’s guess, and many felt that he was value for more than the rating of 133 awarded him in the 1955 Racehorses annual.

Fortunately, there was more evidence to come – seven more races in 1956 and seven wins.  The first four were in Milan, between ten and fifteen furlongs, his margins of victory successively four, twelve, eight and eight lengths again, the last of them in the Gran Premio di Milano.  Then came his only venture to England for the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, when his connections blamed the soft ground for a below-par performance; he won by only five lengths.

Ribot had one more run in Milan, registering an eight-length win over nine furlongs in the Premio del Piazzale, before his return visit to Longchamp for the race that was to mark his farewell appearance.  The Arc crowd did not under-estimate him this time, sending him off at odds of 3-5 against nineteen rivals, including a couple from America.  The judges at Timeform had a better idea of his merit after he had trotted up by six lengths from Talgo, who had himself won the Irish Derby by the same margin. The rating of 142 he was awarded as a four-year-old was the highest ever granted to a middle-distance performer.

A master of every distance from five to fifteen furlongs, accomplished in any ground conditions, and blessed with an outstanding turn of foot, Ribot bowed out of racing unbeaten in sixteen races over three seasons in three different countries.  Many experienced observers regarded him as the best racehorse they had ever seen, and plenty of my acquaintance held to that view after the likes of Sea-Bird, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard had come and gone.  I have always regretted that he came along a little before my initiation as a racegoer.
Report brigust1 April 2, 2020 10:48 AM BST
I read that very piece just the other day Cry. Good morning.

Tony Morris is a very good writer but sadly does get over-excited about a few things. I remember him saying he was crying when he saw Frankel win the Sussex Stakes for the first time beating Canford Cliffs. He then went on to say, when comparing him to Tudor Minstrel, that Tudor Minstrel benefitted from Petition not running his race in the 2000 Guineas because of injury while completely overlooking the fact that Canford Cliffs suffered a career-ending injury as well. He then went on to say Canford Cliffs won 5 Group One races something the horse's Brigadier Gerard beat failed to do. Completely overlooking the fact that had Canford Cliffs been running in 1971 he would have only won two Group 1 race because the St James Palace Stakes and the Lockinge were Group 2 races and the Queen Anne Stakes was a Group 3 race.

I have to say I have Ribot high on my list but sadly the opposition in Italy that he met over the shorter distances, I think it is reasonable to say, probably were not as good as the opposition he would have met in the UK and France. I have him down as a top class 12f horse. The rest is slightly questionable.

As far as 'many experienced observers' is concerned I am sure he is only talking about those who watched Ribot win the King George and his two Arc's.
I am pretty certain none of them would have watched many of his other races in Italy. The form of which is very difficult to find meaning the opposition was probably not that strong.

One thing you must bear heavily in mind Cry is that Phil Bull was in his early stages of setting up Timeform when Ribot started racing. I find it interesting that of the horses rated 140 and above half of them achieved their rating in the first 10 years of Bull's new venture it then took 60 years for the next four to come along. I think Timeform is massively flawed. It has been since day one. And still is today. I like reading what they write but take their ratings with a huge pinch of salt.
Report brigust1 April 2, 2020 10:50 AM BST
**I meant to say above 140.
Report brigust1 April 2, 2020 11:02 AM BST
I wonder how much money they made from 2012 Racehorses?
Report brigust1 April 3, 2020 9:58 AM BST
Jump racing has been suspended until July 1st to give clarity to owners and trainers. Possibly due to the demand on the emergency service among other things. They are still trying to get the flat started, even in a region and behind closed door way, as soon as they can.
Looking at the betting of the 2000 Guineas if they push for a region start will that exclude runners from Ireland and France? There is only one other entry, apart from the favourite, from Newmarket that is high in the betting list and that is Palace Pier.

I have already backed the favourite in a small way but is it not a no-brainer to take the price available now given the fact that all of the runners at risk of being excluded are factored into that current price and there will be no deduction for non-runners?
Plus, if there are restrictions on runners due to travel, Irish and French, or if the race is run later in May, Newmarket have three fixtures in May, will the current race be made void and money returned?
Report elisjohn April 11, 2020 4:00 PM BST
what was the original plan for pinatubo, craven, greenham or straight newmarket
Report FELTFAIR April 11, 2020 4:58 PM BST
Straight to Newmarket.
Report FELTFAIR April 11, 2020 5:03 PM BST
"The current ban on racing does not affect the unbeaten son of Shamardal's training schedule as he was always being prepared to go straight for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas on May 2, a day after the current sanction is supposed to end."

Racing Post March 22nd.

Given the current situation who knows what the plan may be.
Report overs and unders April 14, 2020 10:16 AM BST
Given the fact that someone has layed it all the way out to 9/1 overnight
I would guess the plans are up in the air.
Report UnseatedRider April 15, 2020 9:18 PM BST
On the exchange, all ante post bets will be void if the French horse and the Irish are not allowed to travel over.
Report elisjohn April 16, 2020 6:02 AM BST
ive laid the fav, and backed the french horse, but  i think thats wrong unseatedrider, antepost bets should stand imo, unless race cancelled
Report impossible123 April 16, 2020 2:21 PM BST
"lay it all the way to 9/1" I think it's probably market manipulation. The main market is still pretty solid for the fav.

I believe antepost bets here are only void if race is cancelled or rescheduled at a different venue. Whether horses from outside the UK are running is immaterial. I also think Earthlight will be staying in France unless
Report FatPunt April 19, 2020 4:04 PM BST
Pinatubo wins if he turns up in my opinion, doesn't he? My idea of a bet in the race would be Lampang E/W 66/1 with one firm. Every chance of a big field this year too.
Report impossible123 April 19, 2020 4:59 PM BST
I think foreign horses may not even travel not that Pinatubo will be inconvenience if they do; 2.4 is a big price either way.
Report UnseatedRider May 13, 2020 6:08 PM BST
From the Betfair market page--All bets will be void in the event that horses from jurisdictions outside of the UK, deemed to make a material difference to the market, are prevented from entering this race.
Report UnseatedRider May 13, 2020 6:13 PM BST
Depends what you class as 'entered'. Surely they may be entered as in having an entry, but if they can't enter the country than the BHB may not be allowed to accept entries from these countries?
Report impossible123 May 21, 2020 3:10 PM BST
Oversea horses are allowed to come but have to undergo a 14-day quarantine procedure; Pinatubo on last season form is stonking value at 'evens' even if Arizona turns up.
Report elisjohn May 22, 2020 2:15 PM BST
earthlight drifted 14/1 with365, over 100 on here
Report FELTFAIR May 22, 2020 5:41 PM BST
"Unbeaten in five starts last season, including the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, the son of Shamardal was entered in the Group 3 trial for the French 2,000 Guineas, but his trainer Andre Fabre confirmed he will not be taking up his engagement after spraining a fetlock."

A trip anywhere seems unlikely in the short term.
Report cryoftruth May 23, 2020 11:07 AM BST
Oversea horses are allowed to come but have to undergo a 14-day quarantine procedure; Pinatubo on last season form is stonking value at 'evens' even if Arizona turns up.

If you look at Pinatubo’s wins at Goodwood and in Ireland, its hard to see how Arizona can reverse, and his is second favourite. Pinatubo could go off at 4/7, making evens pretty juicy.
Report impossible123 May 23, 2020 11:35 AM BST
Indeed. I think 'billies' are offering Arizona 'evens' to finish in the 1st 4 at Newmarket. It's stocking value, if he shows up; also 10/1 here for the Irish 2000G. An astute punter could make these two bets pay a handsome dividend as Arizona will almost be fav for Ireland and certainly be in the 1st 4 at Newmarket, I'd think.
Report FOYLESWAR May 23, 2020 11:47 AM BST
the irish gns is only a week or so after the english cant see arizona or pinotubo running in both ,been wrong b4 tho!
Report FOYLESWAR May 23, 2020 11:50 AM BST
soz that should say cant see arizona running in both ^^^^
Report impossible123 May 23, 2020 12:56 PM BST
I think 'billies' are taking the position Arizona is an unlikely participant at Newmarket thus 'evens' offered for being in the 1st 4. But, 'Sportsbook/paddies' have the opposing view, and they are offering 10/1 for Ireland.

An astute bet on these two events (combined) could result in a profit no matter what given the contrarian positions taken by the two bookies, I believe.
Report FOYLESWAR May 23, 2020 1:53 PM BST
a drone cant keep up with arizona if ya belive the reports from the gallops .
Report impossible123 May 23, 2020 2:47 PM BST
Nevertheless, can a drone outrun an explosive volcano though? I believe commercial jets did not fly over a certain populous area not so long ago when a volcano there was doing its business; June 6th, we'll know (hopefully).
Report brigust1 June 6, 2020 9:35 AM BST
Good luck today Cry. I backed the fav some time ago but the prices had already gone to you and others. Be an interesting race to watch but the fav really should have the legs off these.
Report impossible123 July 7, 2020 5:24 PM BST
He's in the Jean Prat (10/11) over 7f; Earthlight has been taken out and run in the Listed Kistena over 6f on the same card instead. I think it's time to load up on Pinatubo back to 7f. Next best is Monarch Of Egypt at 5/1 and Tropbeau 6/1.

A voluntary suggestion by Gosden (a trusted aide of Godolphin) after his defeat in the St James's has materialised. Let's hope he makes it on sunday.
Report Figgis September 6, 2020 3:08 PM BST
While still holding the view Pinatubo was never a superstar, I still believe he's been performing a few pounds worse this season than last. Not because the others have improved past him, he's just not been finishing his races off as well and has been running a bit slower than last year. I've read people say he's better over 7f and they've pointed to his latest win as proof. But, for me, last time he ran to the exact same mark as his other races this year, it's just that the opposition was weaker. What is noticeable is that despite not being at quite the same level as last year he's still been very consistent. As yet, he hasn't gone backwards like a lot of 2yos who don't go on from 2 to 3. I think he's still capable of improving on this year's form but whether it happens is total guesswork. As, in my view, it's nothing to do with the ground or trip, it's purely a physical thing. I remember years ago Warning running pretty well as a 3yo while not being quite as good as expected. Then he showed his best form in the QE2. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pinatubo do something similar in one of his races this season.

That aside, I reckon that even the form Pinatubo has shown this year should be good enough to take today's race. It's just a question of him maintaining that level. At around 11/10 he was no value but I see him as a fair bet at 6/4.
Report penzance September 6, 2020 4:11 PM BST
was given a bit to do today.
Bit surprised Persian King
won after the lto display.
Report impossible123 September 6, 2020 4:18 PM BST
That's the difference between Cecil/Cauthen or Gosden/Dettori and Appleby/(Doyle/Buick). He's a 7f horse, and his pilot rode him like a non-8f stayer.

No worries, there's the Floret to atone (hopefully).
Report brigust1 September 6, 2020 4:37 PM BST
I think it wasn't a true 1m race. They went on at first then slowed up then sprinted and that suited Pinatubo who seems to have one short run. The form is still up in the air because it was a french run race. I do think Pinatubo cannot win a truly run mile race against decent opposition.
Report Figgis September 6, 2020 5:23 PM BST
A quick time comparison of ALL THE RACES on the card tells us this was not a slowly run race. In my view Pinatubo certainly wasn't given the best chance of winning by his jockey. Nevertheless, that doesn't mean he would've beaten Persian King anyway and personally I think he probably wouldn't have, as I have the French horse putting up a career peak today. However, I wouldn't fancy the chances of the winner repeating today's effort and if they were to meet again I would fancy Pinatubo to overturn the form.
Report brigust1 September 7, 2020 8:26 AM BST
I didn't say it was a slowly run race I said they went off quickly then slowed then the winner went again which I don't actually think suited the winner because he stays further. I think Pinatubo is a 7f horse and if the winner had gone from start to finish, a solid one-mile pace, Pinatubo would have been beaten more easily. By slowing the pace it allowed Pintaubo to use his 7f speed but the winner was still staying on too good for him.
Report Figgis September 7, 2020 2:10 PM BST
I've never seen a specialist 7f horse that could run a sub 11 sec final furlong over a mile run in 96.73 on good ground.

Pinatubo is a 7f horse

So you're saying that beating Lope Y Frenandez 3/4 of a length was significantly better form than he's showed in his mile form?
Report brigust1 September 7, 2020 9:36 PM BST
Well, you have now Figgis.

I think the fact that they slowed up mid-race then sprinted up the home straight did not suit the specialist milers and did suit the non-miler although I do not think he would ever have caught the winner.

I think Pinatubo will win over a mile if he goes to the States and the ground is on the fast side. That would be a bet, methinks.
Report Figgis September 8, 2020 1:34 PM BST
Brigust I'm just asking on what basis you believe he's a specialist 7f horse who doesn't get the mile.

What was it about the PJP that told you he was any better over that distance than a mile? I've pointed to Lope Y Fernandez being only 3/4 of a length in second, but I'd be the first to say that you shouldn't necessarily downgrade the form of a race just because of one horse appearing to anchor it. For instance, I argued on here that Harbinger had put up a top class time performance in the Hardwicke and that is was stupid to downgrade the form because of Duncan finishing 3.5 lengths second. Duncan had been held up at the back off the fast pace then picked up the pieces when the others had cried enough, which is the easiest way for a normally inferior horse to run above itself. The rest were hammered.

However, no matter how I look at the PJP I can't see how it was any better than Pinatubo's mile performances. Malotru finished 3 1/4 lengths third, Wooded close to him in fourth. Pinatubo didn't exactly win on the bridle and the time was no more than ordinary for the grade.

So what was it?
Report brigust1 September 8, 2020 2:03 PM BST
Figgis every horse gets a mile. Even sprinters get a mile but some horse look like short runners at a well run mile and Pinatubo is one of them, in my opinion.
As a two year old he was able to put quick distance between himself and the others but the mile has found him out. There is only one easy mile and that is the Sussex Stakes and they missed that so I think the Breeder's Cup Mile will be right up his street if the ground is on the fast side. 

As I said he will obviously win an easy Group 1 mile race, sometimes there are a few on them about, but there aren't likely to be any about now.
Report impossible123 September 8, 2020 2:23 PM BST
Take in the Floret on Arc Day 1st, I hope.
Report Figgis September 8, 2020 2:26 PM BST
Even sprinters get a mile but some horse look like short runners at a well run mile and Pinatubo is one of them, in my opinion.

Brigust, I am not asking you to prove the point, as I am sometimes ridiculously asked to. I am merely asking you on what basis you are forming your opinion. Surely if Pinatubo is a specialist 7f horse he should've showed better form in the PJP? As supposedly experienced racing fans we can't seriously be resorting to, well he won over 7f so it means he's better over 7f? If you think the PJP was better form why do you believe that?
Report Figgis September 8, 2020 2:47 PM BST
Must say I had to laugh at Doyle's post race comments. I followed Siskin and he elected to give the front two a bit of a gap. There are some sectional time enthusiasts who believe Pinatubo would've won and won comfortably if ridden closer. I wouldn't argue they're wrong as I just don't know, and personally I'd still slightly favour the winner. Nevertheless, it is blindingly obvious that Pinatubo would've at least gone closer and the jockey misjudged the pace. No crime in that. But at least own up to it. To respond with words to the effect of 'Wasn't my fault guv, I was following him and he did it' is laughable. Let's hope he took a bit more responsibility when speaking to his employers.
Report brigust1 September 8, 2020 3:21 PM BST
I'm not sure Doyle did anything wrong. His orders were likely to be 'come fast and late and don't get involved in a battle' and that is what he did. Had he moved sooner he may not have got home and he may have got involved in the battle between Circus the winner which never developed anyway, but no-one knew that. Horses flashing home late looking unlucky are bookies friends I guess. Wait for the Breeders Cup.
Report Figgis September 8, 2020 3:28 PM BST
Horses flashing home late looking unlucky are bookies friends I guess.

They certainly are. But that's because they're not actually "flashing home". They're staying on past slowing horses. You can be absolutely sure none of them are putting in a sub 11 sec final furlong.

he may have got involved in the battle between Circus the winner which never developed anyway

Maybe he wouldn't have, the point is arguable.

but no-one knew that

No they didn't. But even an amateur should know that you don't give your horse the best chance of winning by asking it to run a sub 11 sec final furlong.
Report Figgis September 8, 2020 3:35 PM BST
Brigust, still waiting for why the PJP was better than Pinatubo's mile efforts?
Report brigust1 September 8, 2020 3:49 PM BST
It was a different race where they went extended sprinter pace throughout and he came from last to first and won comfortably. The fact that LYV ran well was just the way it was AOB has no idea about his horses and runs them all over the place. And if he turned up in the US on that form, considering he has been beaten since, he could surprise at a nice price. Moore was cantering until he saw the winner then it was too late.
Report Figgis September 8, 2020 4:09 PM BST
Brigust, so you rate that his clear best performance this season?
Report Figgis September 8, 2020 4:11 PM BST
The fact that LYV ran well

As I've already said, even if you try to rationalise the close up performance of the second horse, it still doesn't really excuse what looks like other moderate animals also finishing fairly close. Seems that's just being ignored though.
Report brigust1 September 8, 2020 4:48 PM BST
It may be but didn't Pinatubo come up the nearside rail and from last to first. If they never went sprint speed to start with and he dropped him in deliberately thinking they might then he found himself chasing a quickening pace and that is not always as easy as it sounds. He won easy.
Report Figgis September 8, 2020 5:08 PM BST
If they never went sprint speed to start with and he dropped him in deliberately thinking they might then he found himself chasing a quickening pace and that is not always as easy as it sounds

But why say if as thought it's too much of an imponderable to give a view on? The race is here for all to see.

I'm sure an interpretation of such things can never be stated as conclusive fact to the satisfaction of everyone. Nevertheless, it's a game of opinions and that's what we're dealing with. In this case I doubt the sectional timers would call this a breakneck early gallop but I doubt they'd call it a crawl and sprint either. I doubt most race readers would call it that way either, but I'm prepared to see if others do differ. I mean if that's the way you see it then surely the second and third horses need marking up as they came from even further back? Seems extremely unlikely to me.
Report impossible123 September 8, 2020 5:22 PM BST
Doyle rode Pinatubo to ensure he stayed the mile. But, he'd not taken into consideration Persian King - a stout stayer over a mile - was one of the two horses way infront of him (Pinatubo was 4th then). Which begged the question why ran him in the race in the 1st place with a mile stayers in the race?

I'm tired of his connections trying to stretch his limited stamina solely to facilitate his breeding potential eg 2 consecutive defeats at a mile followed by a 3rd, with a 7f win prior to the last. Wholly absurd, I believe.
Report brigust1 September 8, 2020 5:32 PM BST
It wasn't a deep race and I have only seen a head-on but I think he did all that was asked comfortably. At the furlong marker LYF looked dangerous but at the post he wasn't. I think it was more of a 5-6f race and that was fine. Get him to the US with LYF in the same race and we could be up for a bet. Sadly the way he finished last time will affect the price but I cannot do anything about that.
Report harry callaghan September 10, 2020 10:51 AM BST
quite an interesting conversation on pinatubo. i'm quite surprised people think he is a non stayer or words to that affect.

At ascot i thought it was a proper test of stamina on the going and he came out much the best for me on that day, the trouble was the rider got into the race to soon before being mugged by a staying type in the winner on that day. The winner is clearly very good in those type of conditions and a strong stayer but the going has to be a factor, adding to how he has been trained which appears to me to be all about progression.

i suppose the collateral form people will look at the 3rd horse as a guide at ascot and him letting the form down and along with the hannon horse who looked a good juvenile but those 2 horses just clearly haven't progressed at this time. The argument that pinatubo isn't as good as a 3 year old i think is slightly over rated as personally i didn't have him as higher rated as he was rated as a juvenile as some handicappers did at that time. I just didn't feel there were many good juveniles last season in which to get a proper guide to him and basically beat slow horses who weren't any good which lead to such a big rating it doesn't mean i didn't like him i just didn't have him at 128rpr however to me he is at the 124 he got given the other day and i think he may get back to where people actually had him

It seems to me pinatubo who i don't who why? has just been a work in progress which is surprising considering the amount of runs he had as a juvenile. He looked in need of the experience in the guineas travelling well before flattening out in the furlong leaving people to believe he didn't get home and such the non staying argument persists. I just wonder if he just wasn't really fully tuned or conditioned for that race and for some reason has been trained for the long term and trained to progress through the season but he is getting there imo

to me he's kind of just finding his feet and steadily improving but basically for me he just hasn't copped a circumstance that has suited for one reason or another, i think he maybe should of taken in the sussex but didn't and took in france and not being funny but he literally just bumped into one and a good one to boot who was craving the going and once again he just got done in imo an extremely odd race

when i said he got done he got done by easy lengths to a winner who was properly on his game and copped a perfect race on that day, with free lengths given at the start and still had those lengths into the straight in a very odd race for a race of its type, i don't think the rider can take the blame solely as the damage was done within a furlong of the race beginning and i'm struggling to rate the race apart from feeling the first 2 home are both high class and as as much as i feel the third has lost his form, he was still buried by the winner quickly into the straight.

The ground maybe important to both as both have a lovely turn of foot but i'd say both can still go faster. It is a shame ascot is normally run on a swamp and persian king doesn't have an entry in the mile race as i think that would be a proper race with 3 high class colts

anyway all is not lost moving forward with either horse and they are both finally showing how good they always promised to be imo and that is 2 high class milers
Report FELTFAIR September 10, 2020 2:08 PM BST
Can`t argue with any of that.
Report penzance September 10, 2020 2:29 PM BST
the distances Pinatubo has been beat
over 1m,I think he stays,he's just
met better ones on the day.Not as
though he has been hammered at the trip.
Report impossible123 September 10, 2020 2:56 PM BST
Why run a very good horse over the same (8f) distance that he's been repeatedly chinned?
Report brigust1 September 11, 2020 9:05 AM BST
Of course Pinatubo stays a mile, every horse stays a mile. But I am interested in where he can win and currently, I am not certain he can win against the current mile opposition so either a step back in trip, which the current mile opposition is not going to do, or a trip to the US, which also the current mile opposition is not going to do, is where I think he can win for me.
Report harry callaghan September 11, 2020 10:41 AM BST
what do you believe he will like with keeneland brigust and how that race maybe run? if that is the spot you think he can win in? or is it, you just believe he needs to meet inferior opposition in order to win?

personally i want to see him at ascot because i think he can turn the form round with palace pier and i might get paid at a decent price.
Report brigust1 September 11, 2020 12:05 PM BST
If you think that Harry then that is brilliant and I certainly will not advise you otherwise. Personally I wouldn't be backing him at Ascot over a mile. I do think the going in Keeneland is likely to be less testing and running around a bend will suit him. Also I don't think PP will be going.
When I have a bet I like to win but I don't all of the time and I get it wrong sometimes, that's racing, as they say.

I did see AOB may be running three against Ghaiyyath in the Irish Champion Stakes.
That's more than he ran against Frankel in his whole three year old season.  Laugh
Report harry callaghan September 11, 2020 12:45 PM BST
well i have been looking for a bet in the mile at keeneland the trouble is the going, they ran the race there before and it wasn't pleasant going hence why i can get slowly run mile races in america even at the breeders, leading to pace biases and last time they ran it there it was on the slower side and when it is like that over there it isn't pleasant (that scenario presented itself last time the race was run there) and if the race isn't run fast i'm not sure it would be his bag, obviously if he cops some good going he will be a formidable horse but he still needs a pace to run at and he won't be guaranteed that set up and believe you me i have looked

the only thing that worries me about ascot is a potential swamp but otherwise i think he will run very well and get a set up he needs, he may get that in keeneland but it isn't guaranteed and the bend comes up quickly so a decent draw is also in play, so i'd be wary of putting all my eggs in that basket...many variables to consider but ascot would be the best set up for me and he will put it up to the gosden horse i am sure of that
Report impossible123 September 11, 2020 12:55 PM BST
If Pinatubo stays 8f in a truly run Gp1 race Doyle (and connections) would not have loitered at some distance behind Circus Maximus and Persian King in the Moulin, I'd imagine; connections would have done better running him in the Sussex Stakes, I believe. The Foret on Arc Day and/or USA is the race for him, I firmly believe.

I wonder why Sir Henry Cecil ran Frankel in the Juddemonte (up in trip after 2000G to 10f) but not in the Epsom Derby or any later 12f race despite winning the Juddemonte easily.
Report brigust1 September 11, 2020 12:59 PM BST
I have no problem with that Harry if they go slower all the better he has speed aplenty, what he lacks is stamina. If the ground is poor then the others may take it too him and then it may be difficult but that is a judgement for the day.
Report harry callaghan September 11, 2020 1:09 PM BST
i don't think you understood what i meant brig...

he is a confirmed hold up horse where the bend comes up quickly at keeneland and believe you me he won't want them running 50 seconds to the half mile over there because it is very difficult to make up one wants slow going over there except the mare newspaperecord who will be the hare and if she gets it easy on the lead he won't catch her...

anyway my point is, he does need speed to run at. anyway i won't be playing anything till i know where he goes and the conditions of the race on the day
Report Figgis September 11, 2020 2:07 PM BST

Perverse to say he doesn't stay a mile and stay it as well as he stays 7f after the Moulin effort.
Report brigust1 September 11, 2020 2:29 PM BST
Perverse, Figgis and Rowlands. Three doubles and a treble. Those that can do and those that can't teach.
Report brigust1 September 11, 2020 2:29 PM BST
Relace teach with preach. Laugh
Report Figgis September 11, 2020 2:43 PM BST
"the mile is definitely no problem" - James Doyle

"looked like he wanted every yard of the mile"- Ruby Walsh

“Pinatubo has run another solid race and seen the mile out" - Charlie Appleby

There's another treble for you. Bet they wish they were all doers like you brig Wink
Report brigust1 September 11, 2020 2:54 PM BST
Well at least you can read Figgis. That is a start. I have said repeatedly every horse can stay a mile. I thought you would know that.
Let's see if you tip Pinatubo in the QE11, that would be interesting.
Report Figgis September 11, 2020 2:59 PM BST
I have said repeatedly every horse can stay a mile

Anyone but the most stubborn of idiots would know that when those people are saying Pinatubo stays a mile they're saying he stays it at his best form.
Report Jack Bauer '24' September 11, 2020 3:09 PM BST
Pinatubo is bred to stay 10 furlongs, I don't buy the argument that he doesn't truly stay a mile. I think he is just as good over a mile or 7 furlongs, he's just not as good as his fans hoped he would be. He was never very impressive as a physical specimen.
Report brigust1 September 11, 2020 3:14 PM BST
Even the most stubborn idiot will see that Pinatubo beat Wichita ridden by Moore by a tiring 4.75 lengths over 7 furlongs in the Dewhurst.
In the 2000 Guineas over a mile Wichita beat Pinatubo by a length.
In the St James Palace Stakes, slowly run, over a mile Pinatubo beat Wichita by a head. 

You work it out.
Report Figgis September 11, 2020 3:25 PM BST
a tiring 4.75 lengths over 7 furlongs in the Dewhurst

Yep, he was so tired he was never further in the lead than at the winning post. There are opinions and then there is bullshit Happy
Report Figgis September 11, 2020 3:27 PM BST
There's also the not insignificant, but conveniently ignored, matter of the Dewhurst having been run on soft ground.
Report brigust1 September 11, 2020 3:27 PM BST
Well OK a not tiring 4.75 lengths. How's that! Still didn't match it over a mile.
Report brigust1 September 11, 2020 3:31 PM BST
Anyway much as I love having these little tete a tete's with you Figgis but I have work to do.

Meet you back here when you can find that horse you think will win based on time alone. Not form, just time. Take your time. There is no rush. Laugh
Report Figgis September 11, 2020 3:36 PM BST
Still didn't match it over a mile

I know people like to talk about race form as though it is otherwise, but the simple fact is racehorses do not always run to the pound in ever race. Many horses don't quite find their very best form until later in the season, later than their connections would've liked. Warning, Raven's Pass, Treve as a 4yo, just some of the better ones.
Report Figgis September 11, 2020 3:41 PM BST
you think will win based on time alone

Another idiotic comment on times from the man that 'doesn't do times'. If you did you would know that time analysis is inextricably linked with form. Otherwise how could going allowances be worked out and how could standard times be compiled in the first place?
Report impossible123 September 11, 2020 3:47 PM BST
A wind-up merchant is like a leopard ie it never changes its spots. It's idiotic to run him in another competitive Gp1 race over 8f; will be eaten for breakfast in the QE2 at Ascot if he turns up (foolishly).
Report custardcream64 October 9, 2020 4:42 PM BST
Retired to stud. (Lucky Boy).
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