Horse Antepost
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The best staying chase of the season so far? I would say so.
Anibale Fly: a slight enigma for me. Often seems to overperform over inadequate trips; just seems to sometimes lack tactical pace at the right moment over staying trips. That might be a very harsh view of a horse 2nd and 3rd in Gold Cups, and certainly capable of running really well at a big price.
Balko des Flos: Career highlight when winning the Ryanair; seemed to run to a very decent level in the Aintree bowl too; can't shake the feeling he doesn't want a real top classs staying test in the mud.
Belshill: Both his Punchestown and Irish Gold Cup wins do not look as good now as some thought they did at the time. That Ruby picked him over Kemboy and Al Boum Photo in the Cheltenham Gold Cup remains a bit of a mystery. Probably a few pounds short even if he is on a going day.
Delta Work: Lets start with the RSA. Many, including me were very excited by the ill fated winner. The 2nd and 4th have not really added any lustre to the form subsequently. Going on to stuff Discorama doesn't prove anything at this level either. Road to Respect would seem to anchor the form for this race (see below). Perhaps connections beleive he will reverse that form - they must know something I don't - but I think he will need to do more than that. Looks pretty exposed, and way underpriced to me.
Jett: Smart, likeable, not good enough.
Kemboy: Since winning this handsomely last year, he has fallen early in the Gold Cup, thrashed the dual King George winner (who may not have been at his best) and comprehensively outpointed the Gold Cup winner. Not clear what more he could have done up to now, bar not tipping up at Cheltenham.
Monalee: hasn't quite repeated his Red Mills win, and brushed aside by Kemboy last year. Could yet to better again, but I would be somewhat surprised if he wins today.
Presenting Percy: essentially still unexposed given the way last year fizzled out. Had looked potentially very good, and seemingly has excused for the Gold Cup. Seemed to run very well over an inadequate trip on hurdling comeback. Today is very much D day, and he has it all to do to beat Kemboy. However, he is probably the only one in this field who I think *might* have the potential to match Kemboys best.
Road to Respect: That he is the glue that binds all the other formlines together is testament to his tremendous consistancy and versatility - 4th in a Gold Cup then 3rd in a Ryanair. He has, however, been a couple of pounds below the cream of the crop for a while, and my feeling is if he wins this, it will be because others couldn't match his consistent, high level of form on the day, and not that he has just improved into the horse of a generation.
Conclusion: To win this you will have to beat Road to Respect. To do that you will have to be top draw. I think Kemboy is. Presenting Percy might be. An each way bet on RTR could be the cricket, but at 2/1 I will be sticking with Kemboy.
(Full disclosure: I have had a lot of 43s Kemboy and a bit of 20s PP for this years Gold Cup. I have tried not to let this influence my reading of the race; on the other hand I have believed in Kemboy for some time, and you might think I have too much confidence in him. Well, the game is all about opinions.)
Best of luck whatever you back, but, most of all, enjoy what looks a wonderful race!
Anibale Fly: a slight enigma for me. Often seems to overperform over inadequate trips; just seems to sometimes lack tactical pace at the right moment over staying trips. That might be a very harsh view of a horse 2nd and 3rd in Gold Cups, and certainly capable of running really well at a big price.
Balko des Flos: Career highlight when winning the Ryanair; seemed to run to a very decent level in the Aintree bowl too; can't shake the feeling he doesn't want a real top classs staying test in the mud.
Belshill: Both his Punchestown and Irish Gold Cup wins do not look as good now as some thought they did at the time. That Ruby picked him over Kemboy and Al Boum Photo in the Cheltenham Gold Cup remains a bit of a mystery. Probably a few pounds short even if he is on a going day.
Delta Work: Lets start with the RSA. Many, including me were very excited by the ill fated winner. The 2nd and 4th have not really added any lustre to the form subsequently. Going on to stuff Discorama doesn't prove anything at this level either. Road to Respect would seem to anchor the form for this race (see below). Perhaps connections beleive he will reverse that form - they must know something I don't - but I think he will need to do more than that. Looks pretty exposed, and way underpriced to me.
Jett: Smart, likeable, not good enough.
Kemboy: Since winning this handsomely last year, he has fallen early in the Gold Cup, thrashed the dual King George winner (who may not have been at his best) and comprehensively outpointed the Gold Cup winner. Not clear what more he could have done up to now, bar not tipping up at Cheltenham.
Monalee: hasn't quite repeated his Red Mills win, and brushed aside by Kemboy last year. Could yet to better again, but I would be somewhat surprised if he wins today.
Presenting Percy: essentially still unexposed given the way last year fizzled out. Had looked potentially very good, and seemingly has excused for the Gold Cup. Seemed to run very well over an inadequate trip on hurdling comeback. Today is very much D day, and he has it all to do to beat Kemboy. However, he is probably the only one in this field who I think *might* have the potential to match Kemboys best.
Road to Respect: That he is the glue that binds all the other formlines together is testament to his tremendous consistancy and versatility - 4th in a Gold Cup then 3rd in a Ryanair. He has, however, been a couple of pounds below the cream of the crop for a while, and my feeling is if he wins this, it will be because others couldn't match his consistent, high level of form on the day, and not that he has just improved into the horse of a generation.
Conclusion: To win this you will have to beat Road to Respect. To do that you will have to be top draw. I think Kemboy is. Presenting Percy might be. An each way bet on RTR could be the cricket, but at 2/1 I will be sticking with Kemboy.
(Full disclosure: I have had a lot of 43s Kemboy and a bit of 20s PP for this years Gold Cup. I have tried not to let this influence my reading of the race; on the other hand I have believed in Kemboy for some time, and you might think I have too much confidence in him. Well, the game is all about opinions.)
Best of luck whatever you back, but, most of all, enjoy what looks a wonderful race!
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good write up muse ! interesting race prob best watched i have backed delta work for the gold cup but not this just hoping for a nice run decent jumping and staying on will do for me today . he may not be good enough as the novice form dont look great but then if we went back to this time last year kemboy and al boom photo wouldnt have been on many peoples minds and look what those 2 went on to do later on .
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presenting percy very interesting also and will probably be backing these 2 for the gold cup in the weeks leading up to the festival .good luck .
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Fair point about the Mullins horses last year.
I was mad about Percy this time last year, and I would love him to show what he is really capable of. Not sure Kemboy might not turn out better even then, mind. Interestingly, neither the Irish run this year, nor the Aintree run last, of Clan Des Obeaux are likely to be his true running, so there is still not that much solid connection between the Irish and last year's UK novices. It will be fascinating to see if Tizzard can get his straight again. |