Horse Antepost
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I was really impressed with his performance, running away from them with ears pricked and looking for all the world like there was more in the tank. They may now follow the 'Voix de Reve' route and go to Leopardstown on Boxing Day and the Fairyhouse Arkle in early Feb, though given HdB trains I would not be that surprised to see him brought to Cheltengam before the Festival.
I realise he has a stone to find to be talking about JLT or Arkle plans, but I really felt it looked like there is more to come.
Second guessing the Ryanair mob is a fools game, but I managed to get a fiver at 80/1 for the JLT and some 33s for the Arkle.
If it were mine I would be aiming for the JLT.
Am I insane in thinking this might be a Festival Horse?
I realise he has a stone to find to be talking about JLT or Arkle plans, but I really felt it looked like there is more to come.
Second guessing the Ryanair mob is a fools game, but I managed to get a fiver at 80/1 for the JLT and some 33s for the Arkle.
If it were mine I would be aiming for the JLT.
Am I insane in thinking this might be a Festival Horse?
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looked a decent jumper and well worth a pop at big odds jlt or arkle or both tbf
Certainly not insane, was a very good chasing performance really attacked his fences. Trainer seems keen to stick to 2miles.
Looks like a decent field for the Novice Chase on Boxing Day, with Fakir d'Oudaries (who to my eye may have ended up second best to Samcro, but showed a very good aptitude for chasing nonetheless) and the wildly exciting Laurina lining up.
It would be no easy task against them at levels, but giving both 7lb looks a stiff task.
Fingers crossed he bolts up!
It would be no easy task against them at levels, but giving both 7lb looks a stiff task.
Fingers crossed he bolts up!
de broomhead says of notebook "he has been very
impressive he jumps so well , we have not had one like him for a long time he was a bit behind some of these on hurdles ratings but the way he jumps makes a huge difference for him".
impressive he jumps so well , we have not had one like him for a long time he was a bit behind some of these on hurdles ratings but the way he jumps makes a huge difference for him".
my take on the drinmore is samcro would have probably beaten fakir d if he had jumped the last 2 fences ,fakir was just starting to be niggled and samcro was tanking along and despite not jumping as well as the winner looked to have him covered imo. laurina may be better over further than this and the front 2 take a massive chunk out the market ,notebook the value imo .
did it well and jumped very well well done muse and thanks down to you i took a closer look at the race
Thanks Foyles, I am glad you backed it. I am glad now I had the bit on for the JLT, beacuse with Samcro beat today, a change of plan remains a minor possibility.
In all honesty I think better ground will help Fakir Doudaries; that said, the 5yo weight allowance no longer exists so he Notebook will be 7lb better off with that one. And I think the highlight today was how well he jumped.
In all honesty I think better ground will help Fakir Doudaries; that said, the 5yo weight allowance no longer exists so he Notebook will be 7lb better off with that one. And I think the highlight today was how well he jumped.
33s and 80s looking good now muse ,think he will stick to 2m tbh but wise to have some cover
Big day for Notebook today, with 5 of the front 6 in the Arkle betting locking horns.
But, Cheltenham aside, what a wonderful rave in its own right.
Will Notebook prove the real deal?
Will a further 2lb be enoigh to stop Fakir reversing the form?
How good is Cashback? and will his jumpong pass the test?
Will Melon prove chasing was his game all along?
Can Bapaume reach loftier heights over fences than he did over hurdles?
Does Willie even know which of his is best?
A top class race that proves it is not all about Cheltenham. It is disappointing, though, that the British couldn't muster a contender or two to send over for a tilt at a massive pot.
But, Cheltenham aside, what a wonderful rave in its own right.
Will Notebook prove the real deal?
Will a further 2lb be enoigh to stop Fakir reversing the form?
How good is Cashback? and will his jumpong pass the test?
Will Melon prove chasing was his game all along?
Can Bapaume reach loftier heights over fences than he did over hurdles?
Does Willie even know which of his is best?
A top class race that proves it is not all about Cheltenham. It is disappointing, though, that the British couldn't muster a contender or two to send over for a tilt at a massive pot.
Three negatives ahead of the Arkle for Notebook-
1. two tough races in a row, can it recover in time?
2. It’s record on undulating tracks 3/4/2 is a concern and he may prefer a flat track.
3. It won at leopardstown a good 3 seconds slower than Chacun Pour Soi managed over the same course and distance. This could just be down to it being a more steadily ran race.
1. two tough races in a row, can it recover in time?
2. It’s record on undulating tracks 3/4/2 is a concern and he may prefer a flat track.
3. It won at leopardstown a good 3 seconds slower than Chacun Pour Soi managed over the same course and distance. This could just be down to it being a more steadily ran race.
True enough Englandbarnes.
My main concerns would be:
1. Cash Back improving further
2. Fakir d'Oudaries
3. Whether she can kid glove him down to the start without wasting any energy. What happened last time was not ideal, but the course configuration at Cheltenham might make things easier: she should be able to trot down the hill to the start nice and slow, moving away from all the hubub
To respond to your 3 points:
1. Yes, this is a worry. I am glad he has shown he can scrap, amd would hope that he was keeping a bit back. But you would have to say that might have taken something out of him.
2. I would give more weight to the differential between his hurdle and chase performances. He is clearly a far better chaser than he was a hirdler. In fact, I would be more worried about his Festival run in terms of his ability to cooe with the demands of a festival, than his undulating course form per se. That run aside, I think the balance of his hurdles form is similar whatever the course.
3.True, but that would have put him a good third in the Chacun race, and that form is arguably strong enough to win an average Arkle anyway. On times, the gap between him and Chacun is just about what their handicap marks suggest it should have been.
The way some of the other early season market leaders have fallen away has left Notebook a default favourite. He may have to improve again to win an Arkle. But he has done nothing wrong.
In conclusion, I would not be rushing in at 3 to 1. And I would wait now to see how he moves to the start in any case: he should not really go off shorter than his currwnt price.
But on racecourse form this season he deserves to be favourite, and obviously I am delighted to have backed him when I did. Having won back my original stake and more backing him a couple of times this season, the antepost bet has provided a good extra interest through the course of the season. This is all you could ask for with Cheltenham the next stop.
As we all know, though, being on a Festival jolly at a big price, and the bet actually succeeding are two very different things.
My main concerns would be:
1. Cash Back improving further
2. Fakir d'Oudaries
3. Whether she can kid glove him down to the start without wasting any energy. What happened last time was not ideal, but the course configuration at Cheltenham might make things easier: she should be able to trot down the hill to the start nice and slow, moving away from all the hubub
To respond to your 3 points:
1. Yes, this is a worry. I am glad he has shown he can scrap, amd would hope that he was keeping a bit back. But you would have to say that might have taken something out of him.
2. I would give more weight to the differential between his hurdle and chase performances. He is clearly a far better chaser than he was a hirdler. In fact, I would be more worried about his Festival run in terms of his ability to cooe with the demands of a festival, than his undulating course form per se. That run aside, I think the balance of his hurdles form is similar whatever the course.
3.True, but that would have put him a good third in the Chacun race, and that form is arguably strong enough to win an average Arkle anyway. On times, the gap between him and Chacun is just about what their handicap marks suggest it should have been.
The way some of the other early season market leaders have fallen away has left Notebook a default favourite. He may have to improve again to win an Arkle. But he has done nothing wrong.
In conclusion, I would not be rushing in at 3 to 1. And I would wait now to see how he moves to the start in any case: he should not really go off shorter than his currwnt price.
But on racecourse form this season he deserves to be favourite, and obviously I am delighted to have backed him when I did. Having won back my original stake and more backing him a couple of times this season, the antepost bet has provided a good extra interest through the course of the season. This is all you could ask for with Cheltenham the next stop.
As we all know, though, being on a Festival jolly at a big price, and the bet actually succeeding are two very different things.
who wouldnt be happy with 25/1 now ? whatever the result you have the value and have made money ,cant ask for more ! well ya can just need the horse to do the bizz to complete the job ,good luck muse and nice early spot.
Ear plugs could well keep Notebook calmer.
Any idea if he played up on the way to the start last March? Or if that’s a new thing?
Muse - would you consider partially cashing out your bet? Or maybe backing some medium priced horses to cover it? I think the English horses could be over priced.
Any idea if he played up on the way to the start last March? Or if that’s a new thing?
Muse - would you consider partially cashing out your bet? Or maybe backing some medium priced horses to cover it? I think the English horses could be over priced.
Interesting question Barnes. I am not really a cash outer. The 'cash out' button is a no no. One of my bets is on Sportsbook: £15 at 25s The cash out offer is currently £18!
Laying back on the exchange at 4.5 plus commission would probably be sensible, but as I say its not really my style. On the plus side, it is early in the week so funds would not be tied up for too long! But I don't think I will.
I would say Rouge Nif and Global Citizen are fair enough prices. It is tough to know what runs where at this stage though.
Rouge Nif is on my side anyway. Not to put too fine a point on it, it is 20s to back on Sportsbook and 18s to lay on the exchange.
I might consider a saver on the day. In all honesty, although I thought Samcro would have beat him the day he fell, Fakir DOudaries is probably the one I am most concerned about. But the Irish Arkle and Kingmaker seem to be the most consistent guides to the Arkle. There are others entered that I like a lot (Itchy feet, Mister Fisher) but they are probably both heading for the Marsh. I hope so because I have backed them both in it.
I still have not quite recovered from Kalashnikov being sent to the wrong race having had a wife changing bet on it for the JLT. It has made me a bit more circumspect about antepost punting (or, as in Notebooks case, bet to cover the options - luckiky as it turns out, because if I had had one bet on Notebook it would have been in the wrong race!)
Laying back on the exchange at 4.5 plus commission would probably be sensible, but as I say its not really my style. On the plus side, it is early in the week so funds would not be tied up for too long! But I don't think I will.
I would say Rouge Nif and Global Citizen are fair enough prices. It is tough to know what runs where at this stage though.
Rouge Nif is on my side anyway. Not to put too fine a point on it, it is 20s to back on Sportsbook and 18s to lay on the exchange.
I might consider a saver on the day. In all honesty, although I thought Samcro would have beat him the day he fell, Fakir DOudaries is probably the one I am most concerned about. But the Irish Arkle and Kingmaker seem to be the most consistent guides to the Arkle. There are others entered that I like a lot (Itchy feet, Mister Fisher) but they are probably both heading for the Marsh. I hope so because I have backed them both in it.
I still have not quite recovered from Kalashnikov being sent to the wrong race having had a wife changing bet on it for the JLT. It has made me a bit more circumspect about antepost punting (or, as in Notebooks case, bet to cover the options - luckiky as it turns out, because if I had had one bet on Notebook it would have been in the wrong race!)
Yeah I was thinking more in terms of laying off /trading than cashing out obviously due to the massive edge the bookies have when cashing out.
Well Tuesday is traditionally the best day in terms of offers and prices available so that may give you a boast in getting a bigger price.
Well Tuesday is traditionally the best day in terms of offers and prices available so that may give you a boast in getting a bigger price.
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