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FELTFAIR
11 Nov 19 17:06
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Date Joined: 01 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 6,899 | Blogger: FELTFAIR's blog
Yet another difficult handicap.If the ground comes up soft will back Springtown Lake each way(as many places on offer).
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Report unclepuncle November 11, 2019 5:20 PM GMT
Claisse suggesting it will be no worse than good to soft but given it was heavy two weeks ago and it has rained plenty since with more of rain forecast on Wed/Thur I can’t see it. Dry Friday/Saturday means it might become very tacky though.

Given the above Guitar Pete @ 14/1 (boosted with Billies) looks a fair shout to me off a nice low weight.
Report CROPSICK November 11, 2019 9:00 PM GMT
highway one o one.....ew 20-1 corals
Report nocturnal November 11, 2019 9:57 PM GMT
As always,these big handicaps take some sorting,any clues are always welcomed.

(The Stats Don,t Lie)

9/12 age 6-8
1/12 winning fav
5/12 top 3 betting
7/12 ran within 35 days
4/12 won lto
11/12 min 2 chelt runs
8/12 won at chelt
11/12 min 2 chase wins
11/12 rated 139 or above
8/12 already had seasonal bow

From those last 12 runnings two things strike me.

Only 2/12 have carried more than 11-0.

Al Ferof 160 and Taquin Du Sueil 156 were the classy individuals who defied the weight stat.

If we take out Splash Of Ginge 134,who got his beloved ground that day,what do we have left?

The other 9 winners have a fairly narrow ratings band,they were all rated between 139-148.

Trainer wise....NTD 3/12,PFN 2/12,JONJO 2/12.....over half the winners between them.

Last Irish winner Tranquil Sea 2009,he was also the last winning fav at 11/2.


Even without final decs,the top 6 from the handicap have a lot on their plate,as do those rated really low down.

That narrow ratings band might be a starting point,along with proven course form.

Uncle makes a very valid point,I am wary of any going report from this track in particular.

The good news ....... the winners in there somewhere.

Fire away guys,hopefully stick one up after final decs if he gets the nod.

GL
Report Steamship November 12, 2019 12:05 AM GMT
Just backed Springtown Lake on here, will probably have another backed on Friday.
Report paulo47 November 12, 2019 9:56 AM GMT
Took the 20s Zanza as soon as decs were out , purely on trainer stats in this race .
Report dunlaying November 12, 2019 1:17 PM GMT
Be careful as the list of runners is iffy .
Report dunlaying November 12, 2019 1:49 PM GMT
Take no notice , I was looking at the wrong race .Blush
Report paulo47 November 13, 2019 9:38 AM GMT
Haha apologies , Happy Diva (again ) .
Report luckyme November 13, 2019 1:21 PM GMT
anyone live near the track, whats the weather like.
Report Hibore November 13, 2019 7:30 PM GMT
I’m not near the track but have been hearing Knocknanuss is very much fancied to run a big race. Just watch last race again against SC and how he finished so close after pulling a train up front was astonishing.
Report unclepuncle November 13, 2019 10:41 PM GMT
Have added Happy Diva @ 18/1.
Report unclepuncle November 14, 2019 8:59 AM GMT
unclepuncle 11 Nov 19 18:20
Claisse suggesting it will be no worse than good to soft but given it was heavy two weeks ago and it has rained plenty since with more of rain forecast on Wed/Thur I can’t see it.


Inspection now called with standing water on the track.LaughLaugh
Report dunlaying November 14, 2019 2:26 PM GMT
Springtown Lake for me too .
Report Swagger November 14, 2019 7:26 PM GMT
Belami Des Pictons looks a Venetia Williams special.
I initially fancied Secret Investor for this race. But he was withdrawn perhaps due to the likely ground, or being saved for the Hennessy or because the owner really fancied his other runner Belami Des Pictons.
Then I remember the promise the Williams horse had previously shown including a nice race behind Waiting Patiently.
Doesn't have course form but he won at Warwick, a left handed undulating track so that should bode well. That race was also on heavy ground over 3 miles.
Looks nicely handicapped but it would take some effort to win a race like this first time out after a long lay off but Williams is the type of trainer to pull it off.
20/1 still looks too big and see this being the gamble of the race.

I also see the attraction of both Springtown Lake and Court Meribel.
Report Fistfulofdollars November 15, 2019 3:29 PM GMT
Agreed Swagger. I'm on at 20/1. Could be on a v attractive mark on Waiting Patiently run. Well being to be taken on trust but stable in good form and the ground will be perfect.
Report sageform November 15, 2019 5:28 PM GMT
Venetia's are running well but many are not quite getting home. Slate House is my only bet so far and I doubt if I will back anything else. Save my cash for some easier contests.
Report dunlaying November 15, 2019 6:23 PM GMT
I have had a little on Dell Oro at big prices . If you try hard a case can be made out for him on his Kempton run against Glen Forsa and Glen Rocco . Did Josh miss the winner last year through injury?
Report FELTFAIR November 16, 2019 2:17 PM GMT
Backed Springtown Lake at 18.5, just layed 10.5
Report nocturnal November 16, 2019 2:25 PM GMT
All change with the going change.

Happy Diva was initial fancy,quite how he handles todays going is guesswork,very likeable sort.

SOG and Guitar Pete will love the ground.

Demi Sang looks absurd price.
Report FELTFAIR November 16, 2019 2:30 PM GMT
Springtown not jumping at all.
Report unclepuncle November 16, 2019 6:10 PM GMT
Probably lucky to have landed the money on Happy Diva as it looked like Slate House would have hosed up, but his jumping was always the big question mark.
Report Facts November 16, 2019 11:46 PM GMT
Very well done Happy Diva backers
Report nocturnal November 17, 2019 10:24 AM GMT
Well played Paulo / Uncle

Hard to find a more consistent horse in either code.She dug that out after the last,sticking her neck out right to the line,reward for her consistency.

Both the first two were given lovely rides,BG might be a shadow of his younger days,but he kept his mount going all the way to the line,fine effort.

Did the best horse win?,I,m not so sure about Slate House hosing up,the mumblings about the 12lb hike by connections beforehand were unfounded.In the process of running a huge race til the fall 2 out,does he go up again despite not finnishing?Two fairly quick races,will his form tail off or has the wind op done the trick,deserved better for a fine run carrying that weight.

Belami would be most peoples eyecatcher,hampered early doors,hopefully will stay sound,just the type his trainer can excel with.

Just as many questions as answers,only time will tell us how strong that renewal was.

The best part .......Splash Of Ginge being retired in one piece.Not exactly a legend to many,he was to me,on his day he fought like a terrier,I hope he gets to enjoy himself ,thorougly deserved.
Report unclepuncle November 17, 2019 10:54 AM GMT
To be fair to Slate House ha actually jumped the 2nd last really well but just lost his footing on landing, much like White Moon did at Wincanton a few weeks back.
Given he had jumped a few quite poorly early on he must be very well handicapped to have got back into looking the likely winner.
Be very harsh for the handicapper to put him up again so I presume they will come back for what used to be called The Tripleprint in 4 weeks time.
Likely to be quite short which will at least mean there should be some value elsewhere.
Report sageform November 17, 2019 2:24 PM GMT
Yes well done backers, a very nice price. I was amazed to look through my Racing Post yesterday evening and find 5 of their tipsters picked it! Pricewise was the odd one out of course.
Report GI MAC November 17, 2019 2:42 PM GMT
The best part .......Splash Of Ginge being retired in one piece.Not exactly a legend to many,he was to me,on his day he fought like a terrier,I hope he gets to enjoy himself ,thorougly deserved.
Love
Report nocturnal November 22, 2019 8:25 AM GMT
Harsh Indeed Uncle.

Slate House gets 6lb extra,same as the winner.

Brelan  gets  5lb for his efforts.

The mare was running off a career high mark,that to me was a career best.

Does this type of result deter trainers from letting their horses run on merit ?

What if horses could not be penalised for being placed.

Not sure Slate House deserves that........as always opinions welcomed.
Report sageform November 22, 2019 7:11 PM GMT
It was harsh imo as he might have been coming to the end of his run and I did back him. I suppose they have to put the winner up but did she improve? I doubt it at her age.
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