Horse Antepost
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30 Jul 19
12:58
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25 Apr 11
was very impressed with too darn hot last season, maybe the goodwood track will suit its running style, im not convinced its a good bet at 5/4, will be interesting to see if the betting market changes drastically tomorrow
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Backed my old favourite Lord Glitters at 10/1 e/w a few days back.
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Too Darn Hot was visually impressive against 2nd-raters in France, but this is very different - he's facing two of his nemesis again ie Circus Maximus and Pheonix Of Spain plus another 1f further than in France. Will TDH triumph or will he play 2nd fiddle to either again. I understand 8f at Goodwood is easier than at The Curragh or Ascot nevertheless, 5/4 is very short for a horse whose stamina was exposed over 8f in the St James's Palace.
I think this easier 8f will suit Too Darn Hot more than Circus Maximus or Pheonix Of Spain provided there's no further rain, but 5/4 is too skinny a price to take against these two plus the extra 1f than in France. |
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All the stuff last year from the ratings firms about TDH being the best since Frankel has been made to look even sillier than it sounded at the time. Hard to believe none of them checked the clock before making such statements. Nevertheless, it has been obvious that even though he has been massively overrated TDH simply hasn't been running to form this season. Not because he's small and has been overtaken by later maturing types, as has often been stated, he has actually been running slower than last year.
That is until the latest French win where he came right back to form. In my view that form is still nothing special and wouldn't win an average Guineas (this year it would have because it was a dire renewal). However, as long as he holds that form and hasn't become an in and out performer I can't see what can beat him here. Last time out Circus Maximus benefited from being in the right place in a slowly run race. Possibly he has improved anyway but before the SJP he never looked much good to me and I couldn't entertain him until he proves he can do it in a truly run race. Lord Glitters is easily the best of the older runners but now as a 6yo I doubt he'll remain consistent at the top level and I've always thought the 8lbs gives too much of an advantage to any half decent 3yo. A disappointing renewal of the race. |
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I would be very cautious about backing 3yo's in all aged Group races on the recent evidence. King George, Laurens in France, Lennox Stakes, Goodwood Cup. Even O'Brien can't find a 3yo better than his 4yo pacemaker, Hunting Horn. Milers could be an exception but Space Traveller won the Jersey and he was well back in a Group 2 yesterday. The evidence suggests backing the best 5yo.
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a horse whose stamina was exposed over 8f in the St James's Palace
Personally I think the stamina issue is a total red herring. Just Gosden looking for an excuse about a horse who simply wasn't firing or hadn't come to hand. All that stuff about him having "so much speed that there are always going to be stamina issues with him". This is a horse who mid-race in the Dewhurst was outpaced by Advertise and AVD, and only decisively gained the upper hand at the finish. If he is beaten today, unless we see one of the others improving, it will have nothing to do with lack of stamina and everything to do with the horse becoming inconsistent. |
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I meant to add TDH also gave a faster performance at York over 10f than in the Irish Guineas over 1m, which would make no sense if it was purely a stamina issue. The horse has no stamina limitations over any mile trip, whether stiff or easy.
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For me, TDH is the ultimate flat track bully. He hangs under pressure when confronted by anything with broadly similar ability putting it up to him. Beaten fair and square in the SJP. The problem is, I see the race being set up for him as the 2 other 3yos take each other on. However, it's always hard to know exactly what will happen once the gates open, and at the prices TDH has to be a lay.
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Howellsy, I'm sure King Of Comedy would've given TDH a race today but you think Circus Maximus is also a better horse than TDH?
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wd figgis , good to see too darn hot fulfilling its potential
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Figgis, it was all about price for me, and although I got the idea that this track would suit him more than CM, I felt CM would outbattle him, with the possibility that Lord G might pick up a piece or two. Fair enough, he's improved a few pounds. It may have been the woeful placing / rushing of him early doors that held him back a bit.
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