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elisjohn
25 Jun 19 12:56
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 17,065 | Blogger: elisjohn's blog
10 declared, 7 obrien {6 aiden , 1 joseph} , so sad  to see  what racing is these days, hopefully madhmoon will spoil the party
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Report impossible123 June 25, 2019 3:46 PM BST
What is the point of sending the Epsom over-rans without expenses paid? Those finishing outside 1st 6 eg Humanitarian (thrashed in his latest run by Japan) would have no chance at all, all things being equal.

It is what it is, and let's hope Madhmoon can serve it up to the Coolmore mob to prevent a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for AOB; the pace could be searching to draw the sting out of Madhmoon, no doubt.
Report elisjohn June 25, 2019 4:31 PM BST
shocking state of uk racing and our young trainersCry, shame sottsass not here, oh for generous,troy, shergar ,sharastanhi, salsabil, old vic days
Report impossible123 June 25, 2019 4:47 PM BST
Also, the Irish Derby is usually not on the agenda of the Epsom victors unless it is Coolmore or Irish trained eg Golden Horn and (Masar), both opted for the Eclipse instead. Conversely, Harzand, Australia and Sinndar - all Irish trained - turned-up and won. No chance of the French winner turning up either given the Grand Prix de Paris and Arc their main objectives, if memory serves.
Report woodmanchester June 25, 2019 5:45 PM BST
Still cant believe Madhmoon or Dragonet didn't win at Epsom. Counting my chickens with a furlong to go. Late rattle of Van Dyck cost me dearly. If Madhmoon stays on a little better, can turn the tables with the 11/8 fav looking rather short to me. He might just go the same way as Phoenix

Madhmoon, unsually, well off the rails in the Derby and with a better course, thought worth a stab at 3/1 anyway
Report elisjohn June 25, 2019 6:16 PM BST
dont fancy madhmoon at all to be honest, id like him to win but ill be laying him
Report impossible123 June 25, 2019 6:28 PM BST
AVD (and Broome) ran further than most including Madhmoon so more likely to uphold the form, all things being equal; AOB will ensure the pace is strong (for the benefit of Madhmoon and Broome) - the going is good to yielding (whatever that may mean) with little precipitation forecast. Another benefit race for Coolmore, I expect.
Report elisjohn June 25, 2019 6:39 PM BST
the french winner used to come for the irish  derby every year early 90s, suave dancer, dream well ,montjeu,hernando to name a few, but yes since the french is 10 furlongs its not so appealing,
Report woodmanchester June 26, 2019 2:16 PM BST
Madhmoon clipped in again

5/2 best now
Report impossible123 June 26, 2019 4:22 PM BST
A better forecast return for the O'Brien pair then. And, I might do a Broome vs Madhmoon bet on the day if the price is right.
Report kincsem June 26, 2019 6:02 PM BST
Broome this time.
Report flushgordon1 June 26, 2019 6:14 PM BST
Van Dyck wins by further ,on the bridle.
Report impossible123 June 26, 2019 6:24 PM BST
I'd go with Broome if the ground was soft; good to yielding at the present time.
Report woodmanchester June 26, 2019 7:37 PM BST
Think it will be good going with no rain forecast Friday and a high of 25 degrees
Report Charlton2005 June 27, 2019 7:45 AM BST
woodmanchester
26 Jun 19 14:16
Joined: 25 Aug 11 | Topic/replies: 28,213 | Blogger: woodmanchester's blog
Madhmoon clipped in again

5/2 best now


thx woodman
Report FOYLESWAR June 27, 2019 8:26 AM BST
how many runners likely for this ? going by the betting on here around 5 3 from ballydoyle .
Report FOYLESWAR June 27, 2019 8:28 AM BST
sorry 4 from aob Cry ffs someone have the balls to take him on other than hamdan !
Report elisjohn June 27, 2019 8:46 AM BST
its destroying my enjoyment of group 1 races foyles , i was just watching an eclipse now on you tube when mtoto beat ref point, triptych, milligram bellotto, we dont get standards like this anymore.
Report FOYLESWAR June 27, 2019 8:53 AM BST
yes ej they are handing it to ballydoyle ona plate  , looks like they are gonna sacrifice sovreing and norway and make this a really true test ,could see them getting the 123 here if only 5 runners .
Report elisjohn June 27, 2019 9:09 AM BST
surely there has to be a blame here on uk trainers, we cant rely on stoute/ gosden all the time to provide opposition, (what the hell are our young trainers doing, the baldings, varians, beckets, simcocks,hannon ,and yes godolphin  come on step up}, vincent obrien had the best horses , but races then were competitive, but now its bloody ridicilous.
Report elisjohn June 27, 2019 9:17 AM BST
ps worse thing is these coolmore horses would only be group 2 standard if that  in the 70s/ 2000s, , hermosa, magna grecia, capri, kew gardens, wings of eagle, avdyke, latrobeLaugh,treasure beach, cirrus maximus, seventh heaven to name a few.
Report elisjohn June 27, 2019 10:49 AM BST
8 declared, 5 coolmore , plus madhmoon, rakan and guaranteed. 365 go avd 5/4, madhmoon5/2, broome 11/4, 20/1 bar
Report impossible123 June 27, 2019 4:27 PM BST
A good betting opportunity present if one does not fancy the fav. And, I firmly believe Coolmore will ensure a truly run race in play as it will stretch the stamina of Madhmoon to breaking point, and play into the hand of Broome, the horse that finished best at Epsom. But, the most likely winner is AVD, I think; forecast with Broome.
Report FOYLESWAR June 27, 2019 6:56 PM BST
suspended why?
Report elisjohn June 27, 2019 7:14 PM BST
no, its now under day of the race market
Report impossible123 June 27, 2019 7:56 PM BST
Magnier insisted on having 5 runners to ensure place betting of 1st, 2nd and 3rd hence the inclusion of Il Paradiso; bookie's at heart.
Report FOYLESWAR June 27, 2019 8:11 PM BST
yeah thanks elis j
Report Charlton2005 June 27, 2019 8:13 PM BST
yes bungle...
Report FOYLESWAR June 28, 2019 8:25 AM BST
brief write up ............welds rakan progrssive held in high regard strong at finish last time lightly raced and 20/1 gotta find a fair bit but could do has avoided the rigours of epsom and may be a bit fresher than some .

rakan win 20/1 .............win and place ktcyfa
Report FOYLESWAR June 28, 2019 8:38 AM BST
might even have some on the 3 places market if the odds are favorable .^^^
Report Charlton2005 June 28, 2019 9:18 AM BST
well that's why magnier has entered il paradsio Foyles, so he can get on. Laugh

bungle...wac
Report impossible123 June 28, 2019 10:24 AM BST
I'd 'lay' Madhmoon for 2 places, similarly Wild Illusion.
Report impossible123 June 29, 2019 10:26 AM BST
No match betting between AVD or Broome vs Madhmooon; Madhmoon is 1.93 for 2 places,...1.8 anyone?
Report dunlaying June 29, 2019 12:55 PM BST
I think it is more open than the betting suggests .
Report twonky June 29, 2019 10:24 PM BST
Now I've got to say something...firstly my bet was Il Paradisio ew, on the basis of time between races, came nowhere...bet lost...fair enough. But how corrupt was that race? If  sovereign was a genuine winner, and he looked it, then that's your arc winner. If, as I think that cool more manipulated that race and turned it into a Shergar cup race then that's disrepute.
Report twonky June 29, 2019 10:29 PM BST
My guess is the race wasn't straight....another group 1 winner in the barn?.stud fees.
Report twonky June 29, 2019 10:32 PM BST
We saw all this a few years ago with Australia, when it as patently obvious that the better horse Adelaide was sacriftriced for him....naming purposes
Report unclepuncle June 29, 2019 11:13 PM BST
Best horse on the day won, nothing sinister to see here.
Report Capt__F June 30, 2019 12:59 AM BST
only you
Report dunlaying June 30, 2019 9:59 AM BST
It would be unwise to disregard the form completely .Sovereign was beaten about 4 lengths by Japan and Mount Everest last year . Plenty of us backed those to win at Epsom .
Report Howellsy June 30, 2019 12:56 PM BST
The point is that the horse had an unfair advantage in that his jockey was able to ride him with complete impunity, setting the sort of gallop no jockey with a realistic chance would dare to do (rightly or wrongly). He shouldn't have been allowed to run in the race, rated 105. His win, even if it turns out to have been on merit, is another nail in the coffin of horse racing as a betting medium. The Pretty Polly was a cracking 5-horse race in which all had the right to be there on form and none was bigger than around 12-1, suggesting all had a meaningful chance. Punters had a reasonable chance of trying to predict how the race might be run. I didn't even bet in the Irish Derby due what I saw as the impossibility of working out how the race would be run. Kevin Blake pretty much said in his preview that Madhmoon had no chance of winning. How is that good for racing? And how is Sovereign's victory good news for Coolmore's breeding industry? They are keeping racing alive and destroying it at the same time.
Report dunlaying June 30, 2019 2:23 PM BST
So he went off too fast and too early , won easily and he is no good?
Report elisjohn June 30, 2019 2:45 PM BST
youre last comment i think was exellent howellsy, " THEY ARE KEEPING RACING ALIVE AND DESTROYING IT AS THE SAME TIME " so very true .
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! June 30, 2019 3:04 PM BST
The winner has a bad Epsom run
and still ran to a rating which he achieved earlier in the season
Plus the fact he LOST his shoe


No big surprise on a galloping track he bettered his previous attempts


hth

Wink
Report deepingfox June 30, 2019 3:38 PM BST
Sovereign's stride length seemed to cover a lot of ground, and he was comfortable making a pace that suited him. Nothing wrong with that.

Of all the AOB horses in the race he has a stamina laden pedigree, so it made sense for him to tun like that.

The fact the others didn't or couldnt react to it, is their problem, not racing's.

Post race one firm remained 50/1 Sovereign for the St Leger for over half an hour which was amazing.

Donny would suit that horse well, he goes on soft and quick ground and the longer trip should suit his long-stride. They will probably put Norway in to run up front with him. Sovereign is now top price 10s for the St Leger now the market has settled down  which is more like it.

Still has Japan, Broome and AVD above him, but I dont see any of those as likely runners/winners.
Report Howellsy June 30, 2019 3:41 PM BST
He will never again be ridden with that carefree sense of abandonment, that's my worry. Now that he's a contender, he'll be ridden more conservatively from the front which won't play to his strength.
Report woodmanchester June 30, 2019 6:34 PM BST
They let the pacemakers get away into a huge lead and Sovereign just wasn't for catching

Dyck vastly over-rated. Epsom form not looking good
Report impossible123 June 30, 2019 7:13 PM BST
There was a change in colours of jockeys; winner was running in the colours of AVD (at Epsom), why?

Personally, I cannot see Japan running in The Leger; he'd be targeted over 12f races at the King George & QE Stakes, possibly the Arc too along with Magical. Neither will AVD being a Derby winner (too valuable), but could be dropped in trip to 10f eg Juddmonte International and/or Champion Stakes.

As for The Leger, the prime candidates would be Broome (finishing best of all at Epsom), Sovereign, Norway, Constantinople plus another or two.
Report FELTFAIR June 30, 2019 7:30 PM BST
If Anthony Van Dyck drops down to 10 furlongs I`ll eat my hat Bungle.
Report Howellsy July 1, 2019 6:33 PM BST
What I would give to see Sovereign turn up in the John Smiths! Surely Coolmore can see the funny side of that?
Report kincsem July 1, 2019 7:42 PM BST
I see on The Curragh website "Live coverage of Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby to be shown in more than 80 countries." [Latin America; Canada; USA; Australia; Russia]
It might have confused a few people, 5 of the 8 runners trained by one trainer, and the winner won only one of his previous eight races.
Report Howellsy July 1, 2019 8:23 PM BST
On the plus side though, anyone else struck by the stunning camera work? It really was a thing of beauty on tv, with the vast expanse of the Curragh stretching for miles behind top class colts galloping in profile in the middle distance, their tails flowing in the breeze, the green grass glowing. And then, between the 3 and 2 pole, when you realise Sovereign is going to hang on, you can almost hear the thud of O'Brien's heartbeat and bathetic hooves.
Report impossible123 July 1, 2019 9:23 PM BST
Irish Derby shown to more than 80 countries in the world. How appropriate...showing Moore up, and the manipulation in Irish Racing at the highest level.
Report FELTFAIR July 2, 2019 11:55 AM BST
More nonsense from Bungle.
Report Charlton2005 July 2, 2019 5:29 PM BST
Grin
Report deepingfox July 2, 2019 9:55 PM BST
Moore is part of the Coolmore operation, on the Epsom Derby winner. He ought to be able to read whether the pace was standard, quick or slow, and responded accordingly. The result is always the horse and the jockey combined, AVDs jockey got it wrong and Sovereign’s jockey got it right. No conspiracy, just one human making better judgements than another.
Report impossible123 July 2, 2019 10:05 PM BST
Ya, Moore messed up in the Irish Derby; he also messed up in the Epsom Oaks too,...a Classic double calamity.
Report Howellsy July 2, 2019 10:05 PM BST
One is riding a 33-1 shot who looks rank bad value to me at that price, and who would not be queried if finishing tailed off; one is riding the 5-4 fav, the Derby winner.
Report FELTFAIR July 3, 2019 8:00 AM BST
02 Jul 19 11:07
Instead of opinions here are are a few facts regarding the race times for the past few years.

Sovereign on good ground            2m 31.5s
Latrobe on good to firm ground      2m 32.62s
Capri on good ground                2m 35.45s
Harzand on good to yielding ground  2m 38.05s
Jack Hobbs on good to firm ground   2m 34.93s
Camelot on soft to heavy ground     2m 43.96s
Australia on good to firm ground    2m 33.19s

So Sovereign was over a second quicker than the next fastest time which was on quicker ground. Probably the next best time was that of Camelot if you apply the appropriate seconds per furlong reduction to his time.

If you apply the appropriate second per furlong to Sovereign`s time it goes below standard and was not a "joke" race Bungle and definitely not a slow pace.My opinion of Anthony Van Dyck was that he replicated his Epsom performance but was not good enough to beat Sovereign on the day.

The big question for me is where did Sovereign`s performance come from? Only time will tell if it was a dramatic improvement or a flash in the pan.
Report unclepuncle July 3, 2019 8:31 AM BST
Everyone is forgetting Norway. He was half the price of Sovereign and as expected after setting the pace he faded in the last furlong and a half and got collared by AVD. Clearly everyone watching, includiong Ryan Moore, would have been expecting Sovereign to do the same but instead he had one of those days where everything dropped right and he kept galloping.
Moore was flat out all the way (Broome never even got involved) and he didn't have the option of just closing the gap down as some have said - he would probably have been beaten further, and by Madhmoon, if he tried a mid race move.
Report Figgis July 3, 2019 12:38 PM BST
My view is that unless Sovereign put up an exceptional performance, and I don't believe he did, then AVD and Madhmoon certainly ran below their already mediocre Epsom form. For me it was a performance very slightly short (1lb) of an ordinary Derby winning standard, such as Masar. I think all the other jockeys gave Sovereign too much of a start when you could see how easily he was going in front, he wasn't being rushed into the lead. However, in the end it didn't affect the result.

As Feltfair says, the question is if you believe Sovereign is now an improved horse capable of repeating the effort or if you think it was a one off. Given his overall profile I won't be taking a short price on a repeat. One thing I would say is that even though O'Brien is still receiving all the plaudits and is picking up as many Gp1s as usual there is no doubt that he's sustaining the achievement by throwing more horses at these races. A bit like Apple maintaining their profits by increasing prices rather than selling more. In O'Brien's case however it's a matter of quantity over quality. The way I'm seeing it a hell of a lot of his 3yo big winners these days are running below par afterwards. I know Hermosa followed up but we've had Magna Grecia, AVD, Pink Dogwood (close to winning the Oaks), Forever Together, Saxon Warrior who all ran below par next time. People can say none of those horses were special anyway, and I'd agree, but that doesn't alter the fact that none of them ran to the same form after their big wins.
Report deepingfox July 3, 2019 1:51 PM BST
Cool more have a history in recent years of having a lot of 110+ rated horses, but few 130+ ones.

Therefore it makes sense to block book races with 110+ horses and see which horse/jockey combination hits the sweet spot on the day.

When they get a super horse they may change tactics and race numbers for them, but until then the status quo on their plans will remain, because they win more that way.
Report Figgis July 3, 2019 1:55 PM BST
I don't doubt that's true, but it still doesn't change that he's struggling to keep many of his 3yos to maintain their level. Even horses like Churchill and Gleneagles petered out early in their 3yo career.
Report elisjohn July 3, 2019 3:18 PM BST
whose the top 10 rated horses coolmore have had in the last 20 years ?
Report Charlton2005 July 3, 2019 4:35 PM BST
hawk wing #1
Report Howellsy July 3, 2019 5:13 PM BST
That's a good point Figgis. A lot of the time he wins the Guineas largely due to having a well bred, precocious type with above average ability who then gets conditioned through a familiar pattern of races - Tyros, Futurity, National, Dewhurst - but ultimately gets passed by later maturing or more able types. Anthony Van Dyck was last year's chosen one but his limitations were exposed in the Futurity and exploited in the National. That wasn't really the pattern with Magna Grecia though. It'll be interesting to see whether they run Lope Y Fernandes in the Tyros or whether that one's gloss has faded now and they've another one lined up.
Report Howellsy July 3, 2019 5:19 PM BST
I found it hard to give a convincing speed figure rating to Sovereign's win but I'm reasonably confident it might be a 75, which is a pound better than AVD's Derby. The explanation is that he had pretty much the perfect pace scenario whereas AVD wasn't able to run to optimal fractions. I wouldn't fancy him to be given such a happy-go-lucky ride next time out, so I can't see him repeating it. Although the King Edward was surely a below par renewal, I suspect Japan has improved past the lot of them, although I would love to see Sir Dragonet on soft ground. It's hardly an inspiring generation, what with the miling merry-go-round as well.
Report Figgis July 3, 2019 5:29 PM BST
Howellsy, I wouldn't just say it's a matter of them getting caught up by late maturers though. Many of these horses, Magna Grecia, Churchill, Gleneagles, even Saxon Warrior, are running slower after their big win.
Report impossible123 July 3, 2019 6:22 PM BST
Using the run of Norway (N) in the Irish Derby as a guide Sovereign (S) is no better than Sir Dragonet (SD) as SD beat Norway further than S did in the Chester Vase. As such, one could deduce AVD ran at least 8l below his Derby form.
Report FELTFAIR July 3, 2019 6:45 PM BST
Good luck with that Bungle.
Report Howellsy July 3, 2019 7:16 PM BST
True Figgis. And you'd have to say Pink Dogwood was a bit disappointing last week even if you thought her Oaks run was overrated. However, I'd say Hermosa ran pretty well at Ascot given the draw / pace scenario / ride she was given. Japan has improved steadily this year. I was interested in why Sir Dragonet didn't run in Ireland, as you would have thought he had another bit of improvement in him. Perhaps the ground, or a hard race at Epsom.
Report FELTFAIR July 3, 2019 7:22 PM BST
So what was wrong with the ride Hermosa was given?
Report Figgis July 3, 2019 7:25 PM BST
Yes Hermosa's level has stayed ok, although in my view her Ascot run was below Newmarket, but that could be forgiven with her also turning out at the Curragh. I still think that while the stable are showing consistent returns, their 3yo runners on the whole are not individually running to a consistent level considering all the ability that's available and all the plaudits given. As for Japan, that win has been massively overrated I reckon Wink
Report Charlton2005 July 3, 2019 9:21 PM BST
impossible123
03 Jul 19 18:22
Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 11,149 | Blogger: impossible123's blog
Using the run of Norway (N) in the Irish Derby as a guide Sovereign (S) is no better than Sir Dragonet (SD) as SD beat Norway further than S did in the Chester Vase. As such, one could deduce AVD ran at least 8l below his Derby form.


bungle, what is the point of defining Norway as (N) and then using Norway rather than (N) 3 inches from your definition. You really are a pretentious pseudo intellectual (PPI)
Report impossible123 July 4, 2019 6:15 PM BST
I agree Hermosa ran well at Ascot despite beaten into 2nd place as the winner could be very good. Also, Hermosa was running round a bend for the very 1st time. But, I think Pink Dogwood is a slow boat; she was underwhelmingly unimpressive winning a Listed race in Ireland. And, her Oaks 2nd will eventually turned out to be a mediocre race, I believe.

Sir Dragonet has had a few quick races, and the Derby might have taken more out of him hence the no-show in the Irish Derby. But, there are always the July and Juddmonte meetings to consider, and France too.
Report impossible123 July 8, 2019 4:06 PM BST
As expected the Irish Derby winner Sovereign has been scratched despite leniently treated at the weights; no entry from the O'Brien family either.
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