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woodmanchester
24 Jun 19 18:26
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 30,419 | Blogger: woodmanchester's blog
Which races likely to run in out of Eclipse, King George and Arc please?
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Report FOYLESWAR June 24, 2019 6:59 PM BST
if aqll is well i would say  arc,a little warm up race 1st like last season ...................keep ya money in yer pocket for now !
Report impossible123 June 24, 2019 8:50 PM BST
I cannot remember what Gosden said her next probable engagement would be after scratching her from one earlier after a spin on a racecourse - it could be The Eclipse; the King George VI and QE Stakes could be highly competitive if the likes of Sea Of Class, Crystal Ocean and/or Japan show up.

Someone is being opportunistic (and unscrupulous) hoping for misfortune from layers with their back bets eg Enable in the King George at 30 and 40 when the offer is 3.65 only; Crystal Ocean at 50 and 55 when the offer is 5.2 only.
Report woodmanchester June 25, 2019 5:01 AM BST
Thought Sea Of Class flopped last time and don't think Crystal Ocean/Japan in the same league as Enable

Was looking at Skybet's requestabet 8/1 King George/Arc double

Throw in the Eclipse 22/1 treble but not sure after what im reading now?
Report elisjohn June 25, 2019 6:45 AM BST
wont run in eclise and kg, and i reckon japan could be a serious opponent
Report impossible123 June 25, 2019 3:22 PM BST
The market is indicating more likely to run in The Eclipse than the King George, and i do not think Sea Of Class will run in the former so soon after Royal Ascot; Japan could run in the latter, but the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp could be a prelude to whether the Arc is a serious consideration come October, I believe.

Assuming Enable is as good as she was when winning her 1st Arc she'll have an excellent chance ie short odds chance. However, on form of last year I'd have my doubt thus her debut this season is critical of her well-being, in my opinion, but missing her intended 1st engagement could not have been encouraging for supporters, I think.
Report woodmanchester June 26, 2019 12:29 PM BST
Impossible, you say Enable might need to be as good as her first Arc win but I saw nothing wrong when she won it last year too. That also wasn't the most ideal of preparation beforehand. Think they just get her spot on for the big day?
Report impossible123 June 26, 2019 4:56 PM BST
I understand Enable had a troubled Arc prep last year nevertheless, I do not think she was at her best beating Sea Of Class (over-rated to me). I certainly do not think she's as good as Treve or Golden Horn as her opposition were inferior to those faced by Treve who ran her 3rd "Arc" in the Vermeille.

I think Enable will need to be better than last year as this year's Arc could see Japan and/or Sottsass in contention. But, will she? With her missing her original engagement and given the niggling problem of last season, one cannot be certain she'll be as good as her 1st Arc victory.

Let's hope she wins the Eclipse authoritatively otherwise a huge rejig of the Arc market is assured.
Report woodmanchester June 26, 2019 7:31 PM BST
That's if she even runs in the Eclipse, Impossible. Is she a deffo runner now, do you know?

Think a repeat of last year could be good enough to land her third Arc personally but understand your misgivings
Report woodmanchester June 27, 2019 12:15 PM BST
Enable generally 7/2 for the Arc but you can get 9/2 with one obscure bookmaker

Japan is currently favourite for the Leger but not sure how many Leger runners have gone on to win the Arc?

Don't know enough about Sottsass to pass comment. Maybe someone can enlighten me?
Report impossible123 June 27, 2019 4:18 PM BST
The market for The Eclipse is indicating Enable is more probable than not unlike in the King George; her well-being and (past) form have to be taken on trust; missing her earlier planned engagement was not a positive.

Sottsass's claim to fame is beating Persian King the horse that ducked the 2000G at Newmarket in the French Derby. Sottsass won easily that day, but how good was the form as Persian King did not seem to stay that 10f race; Shaman his conqueror was comprehensively beaten by Circus Maximus our Derby 6th. But, he could be the best France can offer as Waldgeist is clearly not good enough.

Between Sottsass and Japan - the two 3yr old unknowns - I'd prefer the latter given the strength of his trainer in that division, and proven stayer of the Arc trip. Nevertheless, the price of Sottsass can only get smaller prior to The Niel his prep race for the Arc.
Report Charlton2005 June 27, 2019 8:08 PM BST
if japan wins the arc I will give up the game. strictly for mugs like bungle only.
Report gpz6316 July 4, 2019 9:55 PM BST
your such a vile c..t charlton . if you dont adhere to my way way of thinking , i,m a gonna verbally abuse , dis etc . take a look at yourself . venom spitting spiteful little man
Report impossible123 July 5, 2019 9:07 PM BST
^^ Ignore the cretin. The individual is a waste of time and space having totally forgotten what a forum is for.
Report Charlton2005 July 6, 2019 6:24 AM BST
just balancing the opinion for any newcomers who may be susceptible to bungles new age pseudo intellectual (NAPI) sh1t Grin
Report woodmanchester July 6, 2019 3:57 PM BST
Reason for post, I was considering the treble - think I saw 22/1 request with Skybet

Just had some of the 7/1 Eclipse/Arc double
Report impossible123 July 12, 2019 2:55 PM BST
Momentarily she was just odds against for the King George; merely 2 weeks to the race.
Report impossible123 August 3, 2019 11:02 PM BST
She's Yorkshire Oaks bound, and the race is carved up between Gosden and AOB both having 6 and 7 runners respectively out of 18 entered. As such I'd anticipate a small field; Mehdaayih and Star Catcher - both Gosden - will be highly unlikely with AOB possibly Fleeting, Magic Wand  and Happen; Sun Maiden (Stoute); Antonia De Vega (Beckett).

A benefit and prep race for Enable.
Report Fashion Fever August 4, 2019 9:34 PM BST
she will add plenty the gate,  the Yorkshire crowd loves the champions, was there when oasis dream won the nunthorpe and clapped home from a furlong out
Report impossible123 August 5, 2019 10:29 AM BST
Enable will most certainly do. And, apart from Fleeting the most injudiciously ridden and probable runner ie given too much to do in her last 3 Group races the other AOB probables have either been beaten by her or little chance on the form.

I think Anapurna (being an Oaks winner) will not turn up either when a more appropriate Gp 1 seeking opponent Mehdaayih is not - she'd be ideal for the race, I believe; a meeting again between Mehdaayih and Fleeting is a crowd-puller in itself - Enable just the icing on the cake.
Report FELTFAIR August 5, 2019 11:51 AM BST
x3 different jockeys riding injudiciously. When are you going to learn?
Report A_T August 5, 2019 7:53 PM BST
a meeting again between Mehdaayih and Fleeting is a crowd-puller in itself

stop posting rubbish
Report Figgis August 22, 2019 11:38 AM BST
While I always rated Enable very highly as a 3yo, she gave the fastest Oaks winning performance I've seen, I just thought her form as an older filly/mare was very good but not outstanding. There was the possibility of her being capable of better but until proven I preferred to be sceptical given her short prices. However, when winning last time she put up the fastest performance by an older filly/mare I've seen over 12f, as I've found females don't usually perform quite as well over 12f as they do over 10f.

After some years of following racing I came to the conclusion that most horses are only able to run their fastest a couple of times in a season. Later I read Henry Cecil say he could usually only get a horse to peak form a couple of times a season. That's why I prefer to rate the winning performances of races rather than say such a horse is a 140 horse, etc. Enable would be amongst the exceptions as she ran fast numerous times as a 3yo, although it has to be said that as an older filly she has only been run sparingly up to now.

For my money the POW was the best race this season. Magical put up a better performance there than she did in the Eclipse. Even before the Eclipse was run I said I'd be surprised if Magical could replicate her very best. After the event O'Brien said they had been thinking of resting her after the POW, decided to run instead, but she would now be given a break. Actually I'm a bit surprised they're running here as I thought they would rest her until Leopardstown. Whether that means they think she's already back to her best or they're just hoping the race will bring her on I have no idea. I also don't know if she'll even return to her best at all this season. Maybe she peaked at Ascot and won't get back to that. On the other hand fillies often do well in the autumn and O'Brien has said he expects Magical to do the same.

Based on her previous form against Magical obviously Enable deserves to be odds on favourite. I'd argue though that even if I'm wrong about Magical's POW form being better than her Eclipse form (in this case I strongly believe I'm right) that Enable has been priced up today on her overall career and reputation rather than the difference in form between the two runners. In the circumstances today of course I will not be surprised if Enable beats Magical again. Nevertheless I do not see her as a 2/9 chance and Magical an 11/2 chance, so will be backing Magical.
Report brigust1 August 22, 2019 1:49 PM BST
Good to see we agree about Magical F. I hope she makes the running just to prove or disprove a theory I have.
Report FELTFAIR August 22, 2019 3:20 PM BST
Be amazed if Magical makes the running but like Figgis I have backed Magical at the price. I don`t mind backing odds on but not at fours on.
Report brigust1 August 22, 2019 3:45 PM BST
I am not saying Magical can beat Enable but that was a repeat of every time they have met. Why the eff not try something else?
Report Figgis August 22, 2019 3:45 PM BST
Impressive from the mare. Actually looks like she could even be getting better. Don't think I've ever enjoyed losing money more Wink
Report woodmanchester August 22, 2019 3:58 PM BST
All manner of doubles and trebles Enable Eclipse, King George and Arc

Laid for Arc to settle for 50% payout

Could be a big field and sometimes only does just enough

Not that much in hand really judged on Crystal Ocean's effort
Report brigust1 August 22, 2019 4:01 PM BST
It was. Only two bullets left for Magical to test my theory. The Arc and the Breeders Cup. At the prices there are worse bets I believe. Longchamp a good course for front runners given the right draw. Not so sure about Santa Anita.
Report woodmanchester August 22, 2019 4:02 PM BST
Enable not guaranteed to get the kick Longchamp, depending on draw. Not easy to assert if taken back like the King George
Report impossible123 August 22, 2019 4:08 PM BST
Oh yes, that's the way to play the game. Her price is unlikely to get any shorter given the unknowns are two 3 yr olds receiving 3lbs, and she's never met unless an outside factor intervenes; 3lbs might not seem plenty,...could just be sufficient to dethrone her. But, I hope not.
Report woodmanchester August 22, 2019 4:09 PM BST
Hope she wins but rather have the field running for me for half the winnings
Report impossible123 August 22, 2019 4:33 PM BST
I've Enable (6/5) for small money in treble; Sottssas (14); Japan (29); Magical (32) for The ARC. Enable has never been a lucky horse for me; she beat Rhododendron in The Oaks too.
Report A_T August 22, 2019 6:34 PM BST
in terms of achievements she's probably the greatest flat turf horse ever
Report Figgis August 22, 2019 7:24 PM BST
Looking at what else is around and of those horses what is likely to be going there primed, the only ways I can see her beaten is through bad luck or she goes over the top. Not that today's race was particularly hard but horses sometimes feel an accumulation of their efforts taking their toll. Japan, even if he recovers well from yesterday's race, in receipt of only 3lbs doesn't look much to be concerned about,
Report impossible123 September 11, 2019 5:30 PM BST
Are some odious individuals trying to scaremonger? She's (apparently) been matched at 2.9 or just an entity with more than one accounts trading with oneself. If so, despicable behaviour of the highest order.

The Prix Niel and Prix Foy are this sunday no doubt market reaction post these two races for The Arc.
Report elisjohn September 11, 2019 7:15 PM BST
agree withA T , IN TERMS OF ACHIEVEMENT SHE IS!  AN OAKS, 2 ARCS PROBABLY 3,2 KG,1 ECLIPSE, 1 BC , , AND YET I WOULDNT HAVE HER IN MY TOP 10 HORSES FROM 1977, SHOWS THE POOR ERA OF NOW
Report impossible123 September 11, 2019 7:58 PM BST
Indeed, a great shame because the likes of Golden Horn, Cracksman and Enable share the same trainer (Gosden) with mega important patrons eg Oppenheimer and Khalid Abdulla. And, the bullets from Coolmore were plastic and impotent. It may be different this year (hopefully); a French winner?
Report impossible123 September 12, 2019 7:32 PM BST
Looks almost a given Crystal Ocean will miss The Arc after sustaining a possible career-ending injury on the gallop - one less formidable opponent for Enable and Gosden to chew on.

The turn-out for The Prix Foy and Niel are pathetic - 4 and 5 respectively - with Waldgeist and Sottsass both 2/5 fav; The Vermeille has attracted 8 with Star Catcher, Anapurna, Pink Dogwood and Fleeting representing Gosden and AOB. Let's hope they all run on sunday.
Report impossible123 September 29, 2019 6:35 PM BST
Can she do it? Or will one of the 3yr olds dethrone her? Her connections have been pleased with her, and her prep unlike last year. And, is she as good as her 1st Arc? I think she'd need to be to secure her 3rd Arc in succession.
Report woodmanchester October 7, 2019 3:09 PM BST
Hard season and no surprise to see Waldgeist (each-way pick King George - close up), mow her down on that ground

Thought 23.0 the value against 4/6

Laying the Eclipse/King George/Arc treble too proved a very profitable Sunday
Report impossible123 October 7, 2019 5:16 PM BST
I had Waldgeist at 36 but laid off more than I'd backed - I was most confident he'd not win until the weather intervened - eventually winning £3.23 on him. I knew my fate when I saw him coming up the centre of the track; I also had the eventual 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th. An Arc to remember (for me).

Have to rebuild my betting castle after the demise of Enable eg trebles/accas) from scratch - the joys or perils of betting.
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