July Cup

I hope Ten Sovereigns is ridden differently to Royal Ascot.

Inns of court obviously not declared for this a while ago. Anyone have any thoughts on this race? I'm struggling to find a standout bet at the moment.

I think Advertise might be the one. Can race prominently, has CD form and his Commonwealth win might just have been underrated. Not much mileage in his price perhaps, but I'd lap up any 3-1 on the day for sure.

I think the Advertise race at Ascot is the best form and I`m going to back Ten Sovereigns each way. I think he will relish the fast ground compared to that at Ascot and will take a chance that he can reverse the form with Advertise. If not so be it.

crazy odds in this race. a horse that touched off the mackem bullet twice over the course is 7/1, the 2nd fav beat glorious jorney a length, now hes 9/2 and glorious is 40/1 and I could go on and on. set up for a total boilover.

major jumbo 2 lengths worse than invincible army who was 7/1 to beat blue point, and he's 120/1. another stupid price.

cape byron, limato and major jumbo for me

There has been massive support for Ten Sovereigns overnight; 10.4 into 6.6 (here). Another US Navy Flag or Stravinsky, I hope.

Fairyland....8/1

Ran a better race in the 1000 Guineas than she was given credit for so obviously has then stamina...trying to second guess coolmore is nigh on impossible, but obviously Ten Sovereigns is there main hope with Fairlyland being used as the hare. As we've seen this week, front runners have been profitable, so it's more than possible that the group 1winning, back on correct ground and trip, could lead them all a merry dance.

thanks for the heads up bungle

I’m basing my strategy on this years three year olds being utterly crap.
The only one I can have on my mind is Pretty Pollyanna just because she was so impressive over c&d last year and she has been badly campaigned this year.

Dream Of Dreams is the clear form horse but has run poorly at New’Mkt before.
Can’t have Cape Byron being good enough so that leaves the old boys Limato and Brando.

Been a Limato fan over the yrs, so a small ew at 10s for me.
Loves this place & fast ground, would have preferred a higher draw tho??
He'd pump these in his pomp. :-)

I thought the Advertise win was just ok. Personally I have his Coventry run a few pounds ahead of that so I would've liked to have seen a bit more from him to show he's improved. I don't know why Fairlyland was backed, as up to now she's never shown she's this fast. I thought Pretty Pollyanna's best form last year was superior and would give her a squeak if she returned to that but it looks like she has probably gone backwards. Varian said Cape Byron's Wokingham win was some kind of group form, but I have it Gp3 at best. If the Ten Sovereigns of last year turned up I don't think he'd be beaten on these terms but I saw nothing encouraging from him last time. I know it's been said he has better ground this time but I thought his Tower Stakes win was run on softer ground than the ground at Ascot.

I was surprised and quite impressed by Dream Of Dreams last time and have had a decent bet on him to repeat the effort.

brando and pretty polyanna for me at big prices win bets

That's the way to ride him ie forward, and the firmer ground works wonders; 'evens' last time. Well done backers esp those who got 15/1 with 'Ladcrooks' boosted.

Useless run from Dream, probably a one off last time. Personally I don't think the difference today with Ten Sovereigns was anything to do with the ground or the ride. It was the same as most Coolmore gambles in that they'd seen an improved (or back to form) horse at home. Well done TS backers.

well done 3yo backers

Yep - well done Andrew Of Sweden and even I123 - though how he can ever back a horse ridden by Ryan Moore after the way he constantly slags him off is beyond me.

I wish I had just layed my entire bank on Cape Byron being unplaced.

I said on my Bunbury Cup thread that I really dislike the July course from a betting point of view and this week has only reinforced that view.

Pleasingly as predicted.

"He really came alive. In his last piece of work he broke 11 seconds every furlong for four furlongs," O'Brien said

Some nice aftertiming from AOB.

well done winners

TS was always going to be extremely hard to beat if returning to his 2yo form. It was a really good performance but not one I'd go over the top about. For me it was as good a showing as O'Brien's Mozart put up to win the race years ago and 1lb worse than Stravinsky from the same yard. Both of those horses followed up in the Nunthorpe and if TS repeats the July Cup effort he's also going to be very difficult to beat at York. However I do see a negative compared to Stravinsky and Mozart. Both of those runners showed improved form to win at Newmarket, whereas in my view TS merely ran as fast as he did as a 2yo and showed no improvement.

He will only receive 2lbs at York so for a 3yo whose ability (in my view) has plateaued that makes the task more difficult. With no Blue Point around he'd still be the one to beat but as his form has levelled off I think there's a danger he could take another downturn, so I see him as vulnerable and will probably be looking to take him on at short odds.

Ten Sovereigns: impressive winner of the July Cup
Edward Whitaker
1 of 1
By Tom Collins
4:39PM, JUL 14 2019
   
We witnessed an exceptional performance from Aidan O'Brien's Ten Sovereigns in the Group 1 July Cup at Newmarket on Saturday, an effort that earned him a Racing Post Rating of 125. That has been topped only twice in the July Cup this century.

It was a really good Performance, but not one I'd go over the top about
whereas in my view TS merely ran as fast as he did as a 2yo and showed no improvement.
for a 3yo whose ability (in my view) has plateaued
I think there's a danger he could take another downturn

Figgis, you are a hard man to please

Have you seen his sectionals for the last 4 furlongs ? Time was fast on a track that had been watered. Ascot was a blip and he was ridden as he was as a 2 year old.

Andrew, please don`t you start criticising jockeys. The horse wants fast ground and that`s what he got coupled with what Aiden said that it took a while for the horse to understand the change from going a mile to six furlongs in a short period of time.

Feltfair,

? I'm confused by your post as i rarely criticise jockeys, including RM.

I'm a massive fan of TS, i've posted enough on him including war and peace reasoning before the Round Tower and Middle Park Stakes last year on my lay threads. There were excuses in the 2000, but he didn't run badly at all and as you say he really needs fast going (No Nay Never colt).

Never travelling well at Ascot, but at Newmarket on Saturday he was ridden as he was as a 2 year old (up with the pace) and over 6f he will probably be unbeaten this year.

Have you seen his sectionals for the last 4 furlongs ? Time was fast on a track that had been watered

Andrew, I said it was a very good performance, what do you want me to say? The Post have said it's up with the top 3 performances in the race this century. As far as 3yos go I'd go further than that and say it's joint top with Mozart. For me, Oasis Dream gave a better performance later at York. Personally, as with most of the wfa allowances, I think the older horses are disadvantaged at this time of year when they can meet a precocious 3yo who is favoured by the allowance. It's notable that those top RP horses were all 3yos and none of them were ever asked to race beyond their 3yo season, as I imagine this one won't be.

I'd argue that as good as the Mozart performance was it wasn't brilliant, and neither was this. I reserve that comment for something really exceptional. I rated TS a very fast 2yo. I backed him in the Guineas in the belief that if he stayed the others wouldn't have a prayer, including TDH if he had run. Of course he didn't stay. When he was beaten at Ascot and people were saying the Middle Park form was rubbish I argued I still believed it was top notch 2yo form. So I'm hardly one to underestimate him and all I'm saying now is he hasn't improved a jot from that. He didn't need to on Saturday and he might not need to if he runs at York. My argument however is that a horse who doesn't improve from 2 to 3 is vulnerable to going backwards once its form has levelled off.

As for the difference on Saturday being the ground or the way he was ridden, I have to say I see that as total balls. Whether anyone believes the sub 11 sec stuff from AOB or not, we surely all know the reason behind these Coolmore gambles, or gambles from most stables come to that, it is home gallops evidence, simple as that.

I'd also add that I don't believe this is AOB's fastest ever sprinter. In my view that was Caravaggio, who clocked an exceptional time performance for the conditions in the Coventry, virtually repeated that when winning the Commonwealth and when doing so beat much better opponents in peak form than TS has. As good as Caravaggio was, he was another horse who hadn't improved from 2 to 3. When people were talking about him remaining unbeaten I said I would be laying him at short prices after Ascot and look what happened to him. Anyway, these things aren't set in stone. Maybe TS can do what Caravaggio couldn't and carry his 2yo form further into his 3yo season. All I'm saying is he's not a shoe in to do so and I'll take him on at a short price unless the opposition is hopeless.

Andrew, please don`t you start criticising jockeys.

Why shouldn't jockeys be criticised if someone thinks they rode a poor race?

Figgis,

I was referring to Saturdays sectionals, not AOB comments.

I agree the gamble was probably insitagted by gallop reports and the latter confirms what AOB stated.

He's certainly better on faster ground (never looked comfortable at Ascot) his two best performces have come on it and breeding also substantiates it.

I was referring to Saturdays sectionals, not AOB comments

Andrew, I know, I was just mentioning AOB's comments in regards to what TS was showing them last week. Whether anyone believes them specifically or not, and personally I do, it is obvious that TS was showing a lot more than going into Ascot.

The ground at Ascot was described as good to soft but a review of the times shows this was way off the mark on a day when the wind was described as light against.

my view on the race, advertise was around 6/4 few days before the race, previous win achieved top speed 116 on official going G/S, times indicate it was good ground, virtually doubled in price as the race went off, whereas the winner had halfed in price and was a C/D group 1 winner already, those are the facts, plus add in performance factor of advertise LTO, wasnt able to make a race of it on saturady, that track is not ideal for the horse, throw in a very worthy opponent whos firing on all cylinders. did i hear right that you didnt fancy TS in the july cup andrew

halved^^ dyslexia

did i hear right that you didnt fancy TS in the july cup andrew

Incorrect. Charlton posted i was against him and i responded to this on my lay thread yesterday.

good man, with those facts below, and your staunch support of the horse, would of been a faux pas

Hi Guys,

The link is sectionals from the July Cup for anyone who is interested.

wouldnt mind seeing too darn hot v ten sov over 6 fur this season, is there a 6 fur group1 now in the summer?, no until heavy ground at haydock middle of sept, and yet 3 in a few weeks apart between r ascot and newmarket

If the ground is softish in the Sprint Stakes at Haydock in Septs, and both Ten Sovereign and Too Darn Hot show up the odds will be tilted towards the latter being a stronger stayer and softish ground - the former likes good/fast ground. And, the rest could stay at home, I firmly believe.

Jul 15, 2019 -- 5:17PM, Andrew.in.Sweden wrote:

Hi Guys,The link is sectionals from the July Cup for anyone who is interested.

you know what i found interesting about these sectionals, as they leave the gates and have run around 100 metres or more, advertise is atleast 4 lengths down on TS, yet the sectionals for the 1st furlong only have advertise 0.05 behind, then he goes faster in the 2nd furlong then TS

Jul 18, 2019 -- 12:06PM, roadrunner46 wrote:

Jul 15, 2019 --  5:17PM, Andrew.in.Sweden wrote:Hi Guys,The link is sectionals from the July Cup for anyone who is interested.you know what i found interesting about these sectionals, as they leave the gates and have run around 100 metres or more, advertise is atleast 4 lengths down on TS, yet the sectionals for the 1st furlong only have advertise 0.05 behind, then he goes faster in the 2nd furlong then TS

another group 1 for advertise, really did find those sectionals interesting

I believe those of Visinari was thought to be interesting too...maybe no longer.

whats visinari got to do with this race, the answer is nothing, lot of speed figure experts had visinari in the notebook as a top class prospect, sometimes
things just dont pan out, thats horse racing.

Ten Sovereigns appeared to beat Advertise easily enough at Newmarket so if he is to be beaten, the Hills duo seem to be the most likely. Brando could not be completely ruled out as he could be taking a while to get back to peak form and improved yesterday.

TS ran the perfect race at newmarket, as frankie said he was unbeatable that day, completely agree with that, martyn meade wasnt very happy that day, so he had
a different view of the race that day, which is what i was alluding too, when i looked at those sectional times, no doubt TS form sets the standard, exceptional
winner that day backed up the manner of the victory and race time, advertise is a triple group 1 winner now in 3 different countries, might not be the best around, still very good.

I think over 6f I'd stick with Ten Sovereigns if riding from the front (even if Moore is the pilot) over Advertise any time, any day similarly, Battaash and/or Blue Point, but not to sure over 5f though. If it comes up good or better ground on Sprint at Haydock I'll side with Ten Sovereigns over any of the others, assuming he turns up.