2020 - 2,000 Guineas Thread

ive layed the fav, so i want all the french / irish horses to run, but ante post is ante post and if they dont come over i dont think the market should be void

Do we know what O'Brien plans to send over?

And are we assuming a maximum field with no prep races.

Could there be a massive shock due to the disrupted prep.

Highland Chief has plenty of ability at 1000s on here!

Ger Lyons is quoted in the Guardian saying that there is a rumour that Arizona is burning up the gallops and a drone could not keep up with him but then said they should sack the drone operator!

This is scheduled for 29th May and the Irish equivalent 12th June. Will Arizona turn up given it's only a 2 weeks' interval if Pinatubo is present? Siskin is being kept at home apparently.

Sorry, the above is on 6th June and Irish 2000G on 12th June. As such, will Arizona run here instead of in Ireland? Highly unlikely here unless Pinatubo is an absentee, I'd think.

if betfair void the exchange ante post market as seems without many irish/ french not here, i dont know the rule with ladbrokes but i would say the 11/10 on offer might seem massive if they keep the race open

the french and irish are allowed over according to twitter racing post this morning .

earthlight 8/1 2nd fav with some, 50/1 on here

The present antepost betting will not be voided if the Irish horses do not travel as the reschedule race is at the same venue. I thought Irish and foreign horses and their grooms will need to observe a 14-day quarantine rule regardless; Alson will represent A.Fabre here.

The present price of Pinatubo does not reflect his superiority over his adversaries, and neither is the price of Arizona (12 here) who was only 2l inferior to Pinatubo; Arizona is also the clear 2nd fav...unless he'd be a non-traveller.

If the fav turns up, this will be a one horse race. Simples.

Based on the O'Brien MO he'll definitely send horses over to Newmarket if he can - the closeness of the English and Irish Guineas means he'll be able to get the Group One black type for potentially six horses by sending different teams for each Guineas.

On last season Arizona had the best form on a line with Pinatubo, the top horse. But, the two Guineases is only a week apart; send Arizona and get a potential drubbing (again) or gain a probable Gp 1 win (if Siskin does not stay). No brainer, and wait for St James's at Royal Ascot for a showdown perhaps.

I'd quietly fancy Arizona to get a lot closer to Pinatubo on better ground.

They're saying that the people looking after them will have to isolate for two weeks before the race if English horses go to Ireland, so the Irish Guineas is very likely to be Irish runners only, so I'd suspect O'Brien will send the B team to that race, myself.

Arizona is 3/1 jtfav with Siskin for the Irish equivalent, but 12/1 for this.

where did you get the prices from?

Oddschecker. He's 7/2 best with 'laddies'.

Connections are pleased with Pinatubo. Let's hope he shows up on 6th June at Newmarket and rewrite history.

I will take a chance on Alson at the price (have 25s ) ,given  the line through Armoury and the hoped for improvement of Fabre . A bit of give would probably help .

Arizona 10s for Irish on sportsbook

Arizona is, here and 'paddies' others much shorter. Inside info undoubtedly; AOB gunning for 2 Guineases. If fruitful, Royal Ascot beckons for his "winner" here.

Let's hope we see a true champion miler.

Racing Post are reporting that the plan is to send over Arizona and Wichita, in case anyone missed it.

I cannot read the article in the RP, but its headline indicated AOB "was still plotting and could send 2 colts to Newmarket to tackle Pinatubo".

"Could" normally would mean less likely; 10/1 here for the Irish version is tempting.

Yeah I’ve took the 10s, assuming I can cash out if everybody else pushes em out, with the hope Irish horses can’t/don’t travel and I’ll have up until decs to get out I think

the 'rules' state all bets are off if a horse outside the UK deemed 'material' to the race
is 'prevented' from running.  Can Bf list such horses please. I can see Arizona and Wichita but assume Alson@38 wouldn't be 'material' - Thanks

Not sure on the above but read earlier that Alson has been left in the French 2000.

I'm sure the chance of this rule being applied is very small but it does rather muddy the waters. This is to Bf really, why not identify the horses at risk of being 'prevented' from running and let the market determine the price or treat any such non runner the same as a balloted out horse and apply a small deduction to the remaining horses but let the market stand

Any news from Ballydoyle on confirmed runners?

No horse is prevented from running as long as they abide by the quarantine rule for overseas runners ie 14 days for horse and groom. It's not that overseas runners are barred from taking part due to Covid-19. They can run provided they follow the measures set out by the BHA and government.

AOB could have 5 for this headed by Arizona nevertheless, 'billies' are still offering 7/1, and only 3/1 for the Irish version; Pinatubo is into odds-on with every firm.

another one looks nr, thread

oops threat

kameko must be burning the gallops this morning into single figures now

I think the 3 principal runners including the fav represent value. And, if they turn up next saturday they'd be a lot shorter eg Pinatubo (4/6); Arizona (7/2) and Kameko (6/1).

The present going is good to firm at Newmarket. A 9l deficit (on good ground) for Arizona to overcome. Pinatubo (10/11); Arizona (7/1); Kemeko (8/1); Kinross (14/1); Wichita (16/1).

Can Arizona overturn a 9l deficit on good/good to firm ground?

6 day decs 12.00 today, doubt we,ll get 8 at the post

15 left in  2000,16 in 1000 if sportsbook is correct

If I remember correctly the final dec is 48 hrs prior to race eg 4th June.

entry stage today 12.00, final decs 10.00 4 june

The support for Arizona seems to have dried up. He's out to 9/1 here. Could it be the anticipated good to firm ground and/or Moore may opt for Wichita instead?

all 15 stand their ground for 2000 gns after final decs

Pinatubo is 10lbs superior to the next best, and still available at 5/6. But, this being his 1st race of the 3yr old season I think he'd have been a long odds on.

The jolly beautifully drawn in 7. Godolphin 1-2 for me on Saturday

I think the Godolphin horses must ensure the jolly is protected eg riding shotgun eg the protection of Saxon Warrior had in 2018, and not allow the Coolmore horses to deliberately block his passage at the critical juncture of the race. I hope a fair race to be had by all.

Be surprised if Ballydoyle have the winner this year.

We are nearly there ladies and gentlemen and good luck to what you all fancy.

What is my view now ?

In all honestly, I might back the fav again in the next couple of days.

Personaly, I have my biggest position since Coombs Ditch went off fav for the Gold Cup many, many years ago. (Bled and was beat at the top of the hill)

I just have this overiding view that this horse is very, very special, and will probably win towing a cart.

Famouse last, and final last words.

OP,GL with the A/P bet but I like Al Suhail,
think this will run well in this and go on
to be a genuine Derby contender.(Hope so anyway!)

Yep great bet OP , I have decent prices on Kinross , purely on the basis of his first run at HQ . Yes Newcastle was pretty bad , but so was the ride he got .Think may be drawn slightly better but who knows .

Pinatubo might be vulnerable in a bog but its going to be good to firm and Shamardals love that.

Generally races are won by the best horse at the weights and all the considerable evidence is that Pinatubo is the best by about 10 lbs maybe more.

Kinross is interesting. He is much better than his last run and is a potential challenger. Although Arizona and the more ones have better form, Pinatubo keeps thrashing them, whereas Kinross remains an unknown

pinatubo the most likely winner on form and 10 pound clear on ratings ,when was the last time something was this far ahead going into a guineas ? at around evs its either the bet of the decade or do the layers know something we dont ? the old adadage "if something looks too good to be true comes to mind . the attheraces interview with matt chapman and kevin blake was interesting and threw up a bit of speculation .

I think and I hope Pinatubo will confound his doubters as a 3 yr old. I'd be worried if he was by War Front eg Air Force Blue.

Good Luck WhiteHat

As seems to be the norm at HQ nowadays there us a massive golden highway up either rail so with the stalls back on the stands side it’s set fair for a high drawn winner.

Strong winds forecast for tomorrow. Buick can get plenty of shelter drawn 7 and take it up 1/2 furlong out. Military March staying on at the end for a place and will be Derby fav tomorrow after the race.

have had a few quid on military march at av 25s .

Antepost Bets:
2pts Al Suhail @ 200/1
1 pt Kinross @ 25/1

Todays Bets:
1pt Wichita @ 14/1
0,5pt Cepheus @ 329/1

ante post bets
kinross 20s
military march 27s ave
arizoa 16s
vatican city 75s av nr

Anyone else think the 8s about the Derby is not bad price? I have already backed the fav before today but I do think the Derby could be his next race if he wins so I have jumped before being pushed. His trainer said today has already earmarked Ghaiyyath for the Eclipse and I really cannot see the Sheikh going for the St James Palace in a couple of weeks time so I do think the Derby is the aim providing everything goes well today.

It is 50 years this year to Nijinsky winning the 2000 Guineas and then the Derby and he was also 8s for the Derby just before the Guineas. Like Pinatubo Nijinsky's first wins were over 6 furlongs and he ended up winning the Dewhurst. Nijinsky was not a certain stayer on breeding but  O'Brien thought he would win the Guineas so trained him for the Derby from the start of is 3 year old career.

I think if he wins today in the style he should that 8's will look pretty big.

All green thanks to Pinatubo`s Chesham performance, so any result will do but would like Pinatubo to confirm his impressive two year old record and to allow some beneficial Derby trading.

Have also had 85/40 Military March to be in the first four.

brigust1
don't forget the Eclipse is for older
horses only,this year.

Thanks Penzance I did not know that. It still removes another possible next run from the agenda.

Think the fav will win (if trained on)
So a couple of smallish plays in the 4pls market only for me 2day.
Like Kamako & Arizona to be involved, high draw could well be favoured, they want to use that & sit handy.
Gd luck with your bets lads.

Despite all the lockdown confusion it would seem all ante post bets stand. Thank goodness.

Take the National Stakes win off Pinatubo's record and he was still obviously a very good 2yo. In my view the best of the rest of his form would still give him a favourite's chance of winning an average Guineas. However, he is being talked of as something very special purely because of the Curragh win. After initially being sucked in by the performance I came to the conclusion before the Dewhurst that the Curragh victory flattered him and he was merely on par with a typical Guineas winner. At Newmarket he put up the kind of form I expected. So yes he can win a Guineas but for me he is no superstar. Even if he does win today, unless he puts up a performance to change my opinion I will be looking to oppose him in future. Very well done to those on earlier at big prices, particularly WhiteHatJon, but, as for today, I'm always reluctant to take a short price on horses who haven't proved their well being in the same season so no surprise that I won't be backing him.

It looks a race without much depth. If backing any of O'Brien's more fancied pair you have to hope they can improve a fair bit or the fav runs a stinker. Either is possible but I can't back them. Kameko's Futurity win looks short of Guineas level to me. He could still be improving but he's not for me. Kinross is the interesting one. Very impressive on debut, and while the times were a bit inconclusive that day it's likely he recorded a high figure. Unfortunately that is the only race to judge him on, as I have no doubts he underperformed at Newcastle. Always a doubt when backing a horse after a poor second start with only a debut run as a guide but I have to have a few quid on him.

Decided to add Arizona at 2-1 to make the frame.

Well done Kameko backers and a great ride from Murphy.

elisjohn • May 30, 2020 12:54 PM BST
kameko must be burning the gallops this morning into single figures now

personally dont think he,ll go derby , id stick to the mile hes got real speed and it was a course record, i like military march for epsom from the gns

First thoughts were that the front group got at it a long way out while Murphy from on the inner tucked in behind and took a breather two out and then came with a wet sail. They went too fast for Arizona and the Frankel horse on the rails kept plugging on. Apparently he has been flying at home whereas the fav according to his trainer doesn't do more than necessary. The 2nd is bred to be fast and looked it on that ground and with that time.
Not sure where they are going to go with the fav but I have had a few on for Epsom at large just in case. Possibly find out more. Arizona ran a strange race.

the drift on arizona on here this afternoon said it all really from around 10.0 to 15.5 at one stage, i,ll admit i took some of the 14.5 , just thought it was too big a price

Possibly they went too fast for him and he then dropped out. The fav did stay on and only finished just over a length off the winner who is now the Derby favourite and may just have had the run of the race. Maybe I'm clutching at straws. The second horse won't be Derby bound.

The fav has run faster per furlong on two occasions before so he possibly either got tired or did not stay.

race being a month late probably didn't help Pinatubo who may not have come on over the winter allowing progressive types to overtake him

You could be right AT. The fav may be better on softer ground against Wichita and easily beat Arizona as he had before. I wonder if the drift on Arizona and the way he ran may be because they want him for the Irish Guineas? Although they still have Armory for that.

I think Military March is going to be a big player in the Derby. Looked to do everything wrong on the way down and overshot the start. Obviously very fresh and from the 3 slot thought he ran a credible race. Didn't have the pace of the front three in the race after the preliminaries but by New Approach and will love the extra 1/2 mile. What do they say, 4th in the Guineas 1st in the Derby.

yes didnt they have another couple of years back, last here and won the irish 2,000

thats why i could never have obrien as a cecil/ fabre or a vincent

Not a race to set the pulse racing but the winner can’t be faulted and won well.
With the Irish Guineas and possibly Rotal Ascot coming too soon and the Eclipse not an option this season I guess they may have a go at the Derby and then drop back for the Juddmonte or Sussex Stakes.

Wichita had the run of the race and the advantage of the rail and ran well and I’m assuming he’ll now go for the SJP.

Pinatubo came there to win but whereas last year the afterburners kicked in this time he laboured and was beaten fair and square.

Military March certainly ran well and should be a big player in the Derby, though it will be disappointing if there isn’t something better out there (hopegully Mogul).

Kinross was well beaten but wasn’t given a hard time once his chance had gone - won’t desert him just yet and at least he should be a decent price next time.

elisjohn
I think Power was well fancied one year,finished
last more or less,then won the IR2000G.

Great thread from the very start.

Enjoyable read throughout,some insightful analysis from plenty of posters,regardless of the result.

Like many,there was a part of me that wanted to see Pinatubo continue his winning streak.

Not to be on the day,he was far from disgraced,looked like he battled all the way.

Without wishing to get too much flak,Is there a chance we might see him revert back to shorter distances?

What opportunities are there later in the season for 3 yr old sprinters ?

Just a thought.

thought it was a fantastic result, had the race between the favourite  and the winner, the favourite  was unbackable on the day and value backers rewarded at 10/1, had forgotten
the race was being run yesterday, just going  to watch the race now. after losing roaring lion last year, welcome news for qatar racing limited and both horses sired by kittens  joy.

thought Juan Elcano looked a real Leger type - long striding and probably not suited by the ground - by Frankel with lots of stamina in the dam side. trained in the north so probably not one for the Derby

I've watched the race again this morning a few times, in the vain hope of being able to blame the jockey, blame the date of the race or blame other outside influences for the defeat of Pinatubo. But I am just clutching at straws.

He had no excuses, there were no hard luck stories and he was 3rd best on the day. It is as simple as that.

Well done to those who backed the winner, he looks a real nice type.

It is time for me to shut up and go away and lick my wounds.

It was not to be nevertheless, still a mighty profit could be had from trading given the race sp with minimal outlay.

I thought Magna Grecia and Saxon Warrior were poor recent Guineas winners but in my view this was the worst Guineas winning performance of the last 10 years. I don't agree with the view that Pinatubo ran well but the others have simply caught him up. Even though I said I didn't think he was a superstar beforehand I have no doubts he was well below his best on Saturday. I remember it being said last year that Too Darn Hot had been overtaken by later maturing types, but, even though he had been overrated as a 2yo, it was shown later in the season that he had just taken time to come to hand as a 3yo.

There were no excuses in the race for Pinatubo at the weekend, and banking on any horse turning up in top form the following season is a risk ante post punters always have to accept. However, I still think his backers were a bit unlucky in the sense that even though it's how they run on the day that counts, he wasn't beaten by better horses, just better horses on the day. Whether he'll return to the horse he was last year (a clearly very good but not exceptional performer) is anyone's guess but, for me, he was about 10lbs below his best in the Guineas.

With the view to Kameko possibly being more of a middle distance type it wasn't a bad performance in that respect. Although I'll be looking for a better Derby prospect myself, it is form that would see him in the mix at Epsom if he can repeat it. As far as top class mile form goes though, personally, I think it is garbage.

I see Timeform have rated Kameko the fourth highest winner this century. I find that astonishing, but it's always welcome when the big ratings firms have an opinion that differs greatly from mine. I actually think Love could've competed off level weights and still beat Kameko about half a length.

Too Darn Hot was injured and missed the Guineas so not a very good comparison IMO

The comparison was with another horse highly rated as a 2yo who was then said to have been caught up and left behind early in its 3yo season. TDH was well fancied but beaten in the Dante. There were a variety of excuses made there, lack of stamina, not completely fit, etc. However when beaten in the Irish Guineas and SJP the majority opinion was he had been left behind. This was proved false as he later proved himself better than the horses who finished ahead of him. I don't see how TDH missing the Guineas makes the comparison invalid.

Reading the Timeform comments that amazingly they have only 3 higher rated Guineas performances this century. Just had a quick look back, I have only 3 worse

Figgis, I couldn't disagree more with you. I think you've downgraded it because of the 8f handicap on the card, but it makes much more sense to assume Montatham is highly progressive, different class to his rivals, and just had the perfect sectionals for a really quick time. Every other race on the card fits in with my rating of Kameko as a perfectly solid Guineas winner, roughly equal to Dawn Approach and better than the likes of Galileo Gold and Churchill for example. The 'look' of the race backs this up, with decent distances separating the principals from the rest. Pinatubo ran up to his Dewhurst form almost to the pound, and simply has not improved, nor, in my opinion, will he have any more to offer than this figure, although it will be good enough to win a group 1 in the right circumstances, unless he regresses now which is possible. It's a myth to think Montatham could have recorded the time he did if he'd run in the Guineas - he'd have been tailed off in such a brutal test. To me, this year we had 3 proper candidates slugging it out. The issue for me is how either of the beaten colts can recover in time for Ascot. I feel Clive Cox might have got himself a good opportunity there with Positive.

I think you've downgraded it because of the 8f handicap on the card

Howellsy, yes the time comparison is a good guide, especially as there was no excuse with the pace, but that is only one of the pointers I've used. Along with the view that it wasn't a race with strength in depth beforehand, ratings for the front two last year, the fact that a proven horse like Arizona ran no race, unknown quantities like Kinross proved no good, as well as Military March and Juan Elcano not being up to much. I could allow for some of those negatives but for me everything points to the race being well below par. The worst figure for years, in my view.

If Kameko is up with the four best winning performances this century, then Wichita, beaten only a neck and only run out of it in the last half furlong, must be some horse too?

Why shouldn't Wichita be some horse? He looked pretty good at Newmarket on his 3rd start, recording a very promising speed figure, and ran ok on unsuitable ground in the Dewhurst. This was his fifth start. He was backed from 20s into 10s in the 24 hours before the race. Let's wait and see if he's as good as some of us think he now is. Kameko won a group 1 at 2 - the same group 1 that each of the last 3 Guineas winners have now won; Pinatubo won everything; Military March was a highly promising unexposed type, and Juan Elcano was unexposed and entitled to improve on some promising 2yo form on pedigree. All the context suggests it has every right to be good form.

Howellsy, yes I had Wichita running to a decent mark on that third start and of course he could have improved, but I have Saturday's effort only 1lb higher than that. Obviously he had some good GPS tracked workouts going into the race like so many well backed Coolmore runners but I doubt they rated him up with their best ever. Doesn't mean he couldn't surprise even them of course but there is just too much going against the race for me. I think the only way it could possibly be rated highly is because of the Pinatubo factor and rating that one close to his best. Irrespective of time comparisons, watching the visual evidence of how he actually performed in the race in relation to runners like MM and JE, that view seems a big stretch to me.

If Kameko is beaten at Epsom and gets dropped back to a mile I'll be surprised if he can win another Gp1 this season.

I would strongly expect Kameko to win at least 1 group 1 over 10f. I don't see him staying the Derby trip.

I have to agree with Figgis here. Take the favourite out of the race, because he never ran to known form, you have an AW Gr1 winner beating a Gr3 winner and a Gr3 winner. A novice winner was 4th(5th) and 5th (6th). And the winners form ties in exactly with Kinross in 5th (6th).
They may be the best around until proven otherwise but at this moment 'not a great race'.

presume its like that every year in the guineas with the eventual winner usually  beating group 2/3 horses, more often than not the prominent top form horses come to the fore,
this year was no different in that respect, the favourite was not a proven to stay a mile, unlike the winner, do think the interupted racing schedule could of been a factor in
the favourites performance, could be very interesting for the rest of the season, dependent on if or when these horses do battle  again

The difference is when a top class miler beats those Gp2/3 horses it's usually a more comprehensive beating than just a neck. After some of the time performances that Pinatubo put up over 7f as a 2yo, and the way he finished those races, I don't believe he wouldn't stay a mile as a 3yo. Dropping him back in trip won't help. Racing pundits always look for negative outside influences, such as the ground, trip, etc, but, just like any athlete, horses have physical ups and downs. Hopefully Pinatubo's recent down isn't a permanent decline, as even though I don't see him as a superstar he would be a worthy Gp1 winner. It's going to be a poor season for 3yo milers if that's the best we get to see, in my view.

I cannot fathom Kameko. He improved 19 lengths on Royal Dornoch, 22 lengths on Al Suhail and through Positive 13 lengths on Pinatubo. In fact, some of his previous form looks pretty ordinary. Something is going to give, I just don't yet know what it is. Either Kameko is a different horse this year or Al Suhail, Royal Dornoch and Pinatubo were not 100% on the day. We will find out, I'm sure.

think kameko would of beaten the runner up by more than a neck, had to barge his way through at one stage and the 2nd had much better trip through the race, seems the winner is destined for 10/12f races, only time will tell how good the winner is, do agree that the favourite didnt seem to perform  on the day and like the winner, should improve  hopefully .

The St James Palace looks like it told us Pinatubo is about the same horse as last season. He beat Positive and Arizona the right distances and narrowly beat Wichita who may have improved a little on last season.
At the moment Pinatubo could still prove to be a very good horse but that now all depends upon Palace Pier and Kameko. If they go on to be extra special then quite a few of us were not completely wrong about Pinatubo. However, if they don't, then last seasons two-year-olds were clearly nothing special.

the fillies even worse after the coronation stakes yesterday, seems love beat trees at newmarket, anyway looking to next year guineas,s , cant say ive seen anything at r ascot this week that looks gns hopeful to me let alone winner.