Horse Antepost
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Defoe is one of only 2 runners in the race who has already run fast enough to win a decent renewal of this race. However, for me he was all out last time and will do well to back up the win, so I pass on him. Masar's chances come back to the old debate of whether you should automatically factor in estimated wfa improvement for betting purposes without seeing the evidence. The yard have obviously had some problems with him and in my view he's going to need to improve 4lbs in real terms to match the horse I fancy. At this sort of price I want the evidence a horse has gone on from 3 to 4, so not for me. Personally I've yet to see enough from Southern France to make me think he could win a race like this.
Mirage Dancer in the past has run fast enough to take a better than average renewal. In the last 10 years I rate he would've dead heated with Await The Dawn, with only Harbinger (who put up an outstanding Gp1 time) and Telescope (borderline Gp1) beating him. Both incidentally trained by the same trainer. The moderately run Goodwood Listed was a perfect prep and if he still retains all of last year's ability Stoute will have him primed for the big effort needed. I've backed him to bring up the dozen for his handler.
All opposing views, reasons why I'm talking out of my arse, 20/1 alternatives, etc, welcome PRE RESULT.
Mirage Dancer in the past has run fast enough to take a better than average renewal. In the last 10 years I rate he would've dead heated with Await The Dawn, with only Harbinger (who put up an outstanding Gp1 time) and Telescope (borderline Gp1) beating him. Both incidentally trained by the same trainer. The moderately run Goodwood Listed was a perfect prep and if he still retains all of last year's ability Stoute will have him primed for the big effort needed. I've backed him to bring up the dozen for his handler.
All opposing views, reasons why I'm talking out of my arse, 20/1 alternatives, etc, welcome PRE RESULT.
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I'm with you figgis on this horse as a play today glad Dobbs is on for the price but happy to accommodate and horse should be primed for this although I will say I have always thought he was a tad doggy we will see today but nice price to get payed off. In Spain so not sure this will post. I like the tin man today in the jubilee just hoping the draw is ok for the horse. You played the jubilee figgis sorry to go off thread
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I made him the bet of the day as well. Bound to come last now.
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Harry, no not played it. I had actually intended for days to back Blue Point on Tuesday but then had a late attack of losing the plot and came up with Mabs Cross. Then intended to back them both but messed up even more by deciding to back MC each way instead, which of course she missed out on by a nose. Anyway back to today's race there's absolutely nothing to touch him if in the same form. He could even afford to run a few pounds below Tuesday's effort. However, look how he performed last year after winning the same race given a longer break.
I have this year's win 2lbs better but while it would obviously be no surprise to see him hammer this lot I can't say I'd be surprised to see him finish down the field. I know Choisir achieved the feat but it must be very difficult or you'd think we'd see it attempted more often wouldn't we? It's a perfect setup for the aftertimers to say if he wins he was the bet of the year or for others to wait for him losing and say he was a mug's bet. If anyone can confidently say he deserves to be shorter given the task ahead they're a better punter than I and good luck to them |
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I too fell in the mabs cross net figgis she was very disappointing. It's the first time ice engaged with her maybe when she won dirst time at Newmarket it took a lot out of her under a penalty. I like blue point here but have always thought he never got home in the commonwealth cup, he was maybe just outclassed on that day but he has looked a very good horse over the stiff 5 here. We will see I suppose. I am a massive believer in fanshawe in getting them ready and also thought he was very unlucky in this last year. My main worry is he is drawn away from the pace. He wouldn't be good enough against a primed blue point but I also have in the back of mind inns of court who was supposed to run and hasn't and godolphin have decided to pull the trigger with blue point. We will see I suppose but a tight knit affair if blue point bombs
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Harry, if Blue Point bombs then nothing would surprise me. I have your pick, The Tin Man, second best on lifetime ratings. I'm a bit put off by him being a 7yo now but you do see these older sprinters returning to their best now and then. I know a lot of people fancy Invincible Army and say he improved last time but I have him just running to his previous best. In fact I've never had him faster than when finishing second in the Mill reef as a 2yo, which gives him a chance against a below par BP but no more than a few of these.
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I agree I've never rated this invincible army highly. I didn't rate that York race to highly with brando doing no running at all. I also agree the tin man as a 7 year old isn't ideal but he's never been over fazed and I can handle a 7 year old myself anything older I fail to get interested. Anyway pace is my major concern. I know the tin man win a group 1 at haydock but I think that was below his best but was still good enough. James will have him primed here for sure. I respect the French horse even though I didn't rate the race last year that highly but still think it was a satisfactory affair. Anyway I think he is a fair price for me hence the play. Me brivido has become a disappointing type but he may bounce here on better ground but you still need balls of steel to play him. Anyway the tin man will be conditioned perfect we both know that
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I’m also a long time Tin Man fan and still have nightmares about last years race.
Blue Point helps make the market and I have split stakes on The Tin Man and City Light. |
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Obviously, the race revives around Masar. I'd be very surprised if he's not fully fit, though, does he need a hard race fto?especially with Communique and possibly Southern France forcing the pace.
Mirage Dancer has lost all 3 times here and seems more fond of Goodwood. Defoe is having his 4th run of the year and this looks an afterthought. Salouen always seems to run big races in grades above himself...ew bet. Southern France is my choice...trainer is only firing 1 bullet at the race, he's been prepped with this meeting in mind and trainer is also very adept at mixing up his distances for the horses best chance of winning.. All in all, it's not a quality race for the meeting, but stamina and fitness will prevail. |
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I'd say it's an above average renewal of the race. A reasonable standard Derby winner and a Coronation Cup winner, plus a few stepping up from Gp3 level, as is the norm. For me, Defoe and Mirage Dancer have put up better than average performances compared to most runners that enter the race, although I can see why most wouldn't rate MD.
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I'm backing the proven group 1 12f winners at above evens. I do accept Defoe might have had a hard race last time but it's very hard to gauge that aspect and I think his price accommodates that doubt. If he doesn't run his face, that leaves Masar with Southern France and Mirage Dancer to beat, and even after a year off I'd be disappointed if he couldn't do that. I thought Mirage Dancer's limitations were exposed at Newmarket last year as a borderline group 2 colt but well short of group 1 class. I agree he's likely to run to a career best today but that still won't be enough and I think he should be more of a 10-1 shot. Southern France travelled well in the St Leger and might be best at 12f but he does have to prove it against two high class colts and I'm happy to have them on side at the prices.
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Howellsy, I never rated MD at the time of him running at Newmarket. Still couldn't understand the wads of cash for him at Goodwood afterwards, then I found out why.
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But that was a much lower grade Figgis.
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But a much improved performance at the same time.
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I have always liked the horse at group 3 level but I'll be very surprised if he is able to win today.
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Howellsy, I remember you rating Young Rascal after the Chester win. Obviously he ran no race in the Derby but if replicating Chester where do you think he would've finished? I mean do you think Dee Ex Bee improved in the Derby or ran to Chester form?
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If replicating Chester, I suppose I'd have him finishing 5th, just behind Saxon Warrior. I expected him to improve but I clearly overestimated him. I think DXB improved for the proper test at the trip which was never replicated over 12f after.
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Oh, I think Dee Ex Bee replicated the Chester form.
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Good call Howellsy, best horse won, the second a surprise to me at least.
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Cheers Figgis. The second was a real threat one out I thought.
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Well if you're gonna get it wrong, do it with style. Lol
If I'd have stuck to my class and distance method,bingo but I never.. But I still can't have defoe as a group 1 or 2 horse, unless it's a poor season. |