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5 day decs are out,now the real work starts.
10 handicaps over the 4 days,just the one decent winner can cover the entire week.
Multiple entries abound,trainers hell bent on second guessing their potential opponents.
Sorting the wheat from the chaff is no easy task,on paper they can look virtually impossible to solve.
I will stick some stats up for them,none are bullet proof.
Whatever your methods,feel free to join in,hopefully a little banter on the way.
Above all ......... Enjoy the whole week.
Day 1 ULTIMA 3M 1F (20 Fences)
9/12 age 6-8
7/12 top 3 betting
9/12 11-03 or less
10/12 ran within 47 days
10/12 3 runs or more chelt
12/12 won over 3m
10/12 min 5 chase starts
11/12 min 1 chase win
10/12 3 runs min current season
8/12 1 win min current season
9/11 rated 142 or above
8/14 won lto
2/18 Irish trained winners
6/7 wore headgear
2/12 age 10 or above
Just the 48 left in today,157 gets top weight,only 11lb between the top 20 entered.
First thoughts.......only 2 of the top thirteen meet the age stat, 6-8.
Just using that and the last time out winner stat leaves only 4 horses.
Crucial Role
Walt
Skipthecuddles
Azzerti
If it were that easy,we would not be on here next week.
Just how do we prioritise those stats from previous runnings,are they any use in relation to next week?
Bragging rights assured,lets see if we can nail a couple over the 4 days.
All welcome.
10 handicaps over the 4 days,just the one decent winner can cover the entire week.
Multiple entries abound,trainers hell bent on second guessing their potential opponents.
Sorting the wheat from the chaff is no easy task,on paper they can look virtually impossible to solve.
I will stick some stats up for them,none are bullet proof.
Whatever your methods,feel free to join in,hopefully a little banter on the way.
Above all ......... Enjoy the whole week.
Day 1 ULTIMA 3M 1F (20 Fences)
9/12 age 6-8
7/12 top 3 betting
9/12 11-03 or less
10/12 ran within 47 days
10/12 3 runs or more chelt
12/12 won over 3m
10/12 min 5 chase starts
11/12 min 1 chase win
10/12 3 runs min current season
8/12 1 win min current season
9/11 rated 142 or above
8/14 won lto
2/18 Irish trained winners
6/7 wore headgear
2/12 age 10 or above
Just the 48 left in today,157 gets top weight,only 11lb between the top 20 entered.
First thoughts.......only 2 of the top thirteen meet the age stat, 6-8.
Just using that and the last time out winner stat leaves only 4 horses.
Crucial Role
Walt
Skipthecuddles
Azzerti
If it were that easy,we would not be on here next week.
Just how do we prioritise those stats from previous runnings,are they any use in relation to next week?
Bragging rights assured,lets see if we can nail a couple over the 4 days.
All welcome.
Show More
Day 1 Close Brothers Novices Handicap (0-145) 2 miles 4 1/2 f
2/14 aged over 7
10/14 beaten first 2 ch starts
14/14 ran within 60 days
12/14 1st/2nd lto
12/14 1st 5 betting
8/14 one chase win
2/56 winners wearing headgear
11/14 ran over 2m 4f chase
5/14 ran h,cap lto
1/10 won carrying penalty
12/12 min 3 chase starts
1/12 winning fav
Formerly the Jewson,now has a 145 top rating ,not the history of some handicaps,but there are a few pointers from the stats.
Just the 2 winners over 7,suggests we are are looking for a younger improver,been seen out recently,minimum 3 chase starts,showing signs of Improvement.
12 of the 14 winners have been near the head of the market,only one winning fav in the last 12 runnings.
Just 2 horses won with headgear from 56 attempts,one of the strongest stats for the whole Festival,if your horse needs to find pounds somewhere,this rarely works at HQ.There is one trainer who uses it very sparingly,when he does,take note.
Just the 7lb gap from top to bottom,just the one claimer booked which is surprising.
Tower Bridge and Dell Oro both get headgear first time.
Taking out those over 7 leaves us with 15
Removing those not finnishing 1/2nd LTO leaves 8
Beaten on first two chase starts leaves 2 horses,Tower Bridge and Riders Onthe Storm.
Personally I would be looking at the middle 8 horses first,they fit some of the criteria,and are a manageable size.Just the 10 minutes on every runner gives us over 3 1/2 hours work,thats what makes them so difficult in my experience.
Narrowing down the field in the time frame is key,that is no guarantee for success,but does allow a punter to concentrate on the right type of horse.
Not fitting the stats will not put me off a horse,but faced with a shortlist of a few I like,thats when it can be really useful,along with a few other parameters.
2/14 aged over 7
10/14 beaten first 2 ch starts
14/14 ran within 60 days
12/14 1st/2nd lto
12/14 1st 5 betting
8/14 one chase win
2/56 winners wearing headgear
11/14 ran over 2m 4f chase
5/14 ran h,cap lto
1/10 won carrying penalty
12/12 min 3 chase starts
1/12 winning fav
Formerly the Jewson,now has a 145 top rating ,not the history of some handicaps,but there are a few pointers from the stats.
Just the 2 winners over 7,suggests we are are looking for a younger improver,been seen out recently,minimum 3 chase starts,showing signs of Improvement.
12 of the 14 winners have been near the head of the market,only one winning fav in the last 12 runnings.
Just 2 horses won with headgear from 56 attempts,one of the strongest stats for the whole Festival,if your horse needs to find pounds somewhere,this rarely works at HQ.There is one trainer who uses it very sparingly,when he does,take note.
Just the 7lb gap from top to bottom,just the one claimer booked which is surprising.
Tower Bridge and Dell Oro both get headgear first time.
Taking out those over 7 leaves us with 15
Removing those not finnishing 1/2nd LTO leaves 8
Beaten on first two chase starts leaves 2 horses,Tower Bridge and Riders Onthe Storm.
Personally I would be looking at the middle 8 horses first,they fit some of the criteria,and are a manageable size.Just the 10 minutes on every runner gives us over 3 1/2 hours work,thats what makes them so difficult in my experience.
Narrowing down the field in the time frame is key,that is no guarantee for success,but does allow a punter to concentrate on the right type of horse.
Not fitting the stats will not put me off a horse,but faced with a shortlist of a few I like,thats when it can be really useful,along with a few other parameters.
Ultima
First of the day 1 handicaps,over 8/1 the field,24 to chew over.
Coo Star Sivola .......needs no introduction,last years winner in deep ground.Always up with the pace,superb jumper,stuck on really well after the last, looking like there may have been a lttle left.
This seasons efforts less than inspiring,the plus side being he is only 3lb higher than last year.Ned takes the ride again,she has excelled around here a few times,a reproduction of last years effort should see him in the mix,from a very canny outfit.
Oldgrangewood......currently trading at three figures on some books.Lightly raced 8 yr old from the Skelton yard,those odds may be a fair reflection,I,m not so sure.
Campaigned at middle distances,he finally got a step up at Aintree last back end,off 146 he ran a real promising race on soft ground,finnishing 4th to some decent animals in a grade 3 chase.Before that he had bombed out here,never travelling in the plate,pulled up 4 out.
His only point run suggests stamina should be no problem.He looks a big unfurnished type,wears the noseband as he has a high head carriage,but there is ability in there.His jumping round here has been safe,and todays ground will hold no fears.
Both runs this season not devoid of promise,he comes here with a much better looking profile than years Festival.
Back to 3m plus today,off 140,with very few miles on the clock,couple of decent prep runs,can he reproduce the promise shown at Aintree ?
Dangers galore,the good doctors horse at the bottom gets the 1st time visor,no forlorn hope.
As always lots of angles,best of luck to those playing.
First of the day 1 handicaps,over 8/1 the field,24 to chew over.
Coo Star Sivola .......needs no introduction,last years winner in deep ground.Always up with the pace,superb jumper,stuck on really well after the last, looking like there may have been a lttle left.
This seasons efforts less than inspiring,the plus side being he is only 3lb higher than last year.Ned takes the ride again,she has excelled around here a few times,a reproduction of last years effort should see him in the mix,from a very canny outfit.
Oldgrangewood......currently trading at three figures on some books.Lightly raced 8 yr old from the Skelton yard,those odds may be a fair reflection,I,m not so sure.
Campaigned at middle distances,he finally got a step up at Aintree last back end,off 146 he ran a real promising race on soft ground,finnishing 4th to some decent animals in a grade 3 chase.Before that he had bombed out here,never travelling in the plate,pulled up 4 out.
His only point run suggests stamina should be no problem.He looks a big unfurnished type,wears the noseband as he has a high head carriage,but there is ability in there.His jumping round here has been safe,and todays ground will hold no fears.
Both runs this season not devoid of promise,he comes here with a much better looking profile than years Festival.
Back to 3m plus today,off 140,with very few miles on the clock,couple of decent prep runs,can he reproduce the promise shown at Aintree ?
Dangers galore,the good doctors horse at the bottom gets the 1st time visor,no forlorn hope.
As always lots of angles,best of luck to those playing.
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