Horse Antepost
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A race I usually enjoy having an antepost play in but this years entries really are pretty drab.
The current 12/1 favourite is Charlie Appleby's Auxerre who is the one lightly raced improving 4 year old in the field - I could see it going off around 3/1 if they fancy it.
Of the rest I have 3 that interest me.
Chilean of Martyn Meade's @ 20/1. Needs proper soft or heavy ground but if the weather is in his favour he has the class to go close off a fair mark and runs well fresh.
South Seas @ 33/1 who will be having his first run for Philip Kirby (formerly with Andrew Balding). Was a very good two year old but has struggled since although has caught the eye one or two times. Wouldn't want fast ground.
Ripp Orf @ 20/1 of David Elsworth's. A regular in the big 7f-1m handicaps who needs a big field and strong pace. Not exactly hiding anything from the handicapper though. Wouldn't want it too soft.
The current 12/1 favourite is Charlie Appleby's Auxerre who is the one lightly raced improving 4 year old in the field - I could see it going off around 3/1 if they fancy it.
Of the rest I have 3 that interest me.
Chilean of Martyn Meade's @ 20/1. Needs proper soft or heavy ground but if the weather is in his favour he has the class to go close off a fair mark and runs well fresh.
South Seas @ 33/1 who will be having his first run for Philip Kirby (formerly with Andrew Balding). Was a very good two year old but has struggled since although has caught the eye one or two times. Wouldn't want fast ground.
Ripp Orf @ 20/1 of David Elsworth's. A regular in the big 7f-1m handicaps who needs a big field and strong pace. Not exactly hiding anything from the handicapper though. Wouldn't want it too soft.
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Like you, Auxerre is the one that stood out in terms of a likely improver. Surely plenty more to come from him and Appleby can clearly ready them first time out. The current 12/1 on offer seems fair. My only concern is that he hasn’t been in the most competitive of races yet, which could catch him out. But there’s always the chance that he’s just too good and class overcomes his lack of experience.
The other to catch my eye was Mordin. His 2nd in the Cambridgeshire makes for excellent reading when you consider what Wissahickon has done since and the fact that Sharja Bridge and Raising Sand (7th & 8th that day) then went on to win top Ascot handicaps. His record over a mile is 112 and he won first time out last season. If the ground’s on the decent side then he’s surely a great each way shout. Also, if he goes, Ledham (Stoute) looks like an ideal candidate for the consolation race. |
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Like Lord Oberon in this @20s generally,won
well at 7f here,should get the mile the way he ran on,did'nt get the clearest of runs that day too.E/W claims if he runs. GL ALL |
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HUMBERT 25-1
As usual looked at Fahey and O'Meara. Gone for Humbert whose early season form last year would give him every chance. Betting now cos the 25's is beginning to disappear. |
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Chilean, South Seas and Ripp Orff all caught my eye. Remarkable could be interesting now with O'Meara. Top Gosden handicapper formerly, wants soft ground.
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The 25's have gone, that was good timing.
Kynren and the fav. look dangers. Passed over Remarkable cos he's mostly kept to 7 furlongs and Ripp Orff cos Ascot's his course but wouldn't be confident ruling either out. |
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Have had a bit of 45s Silver Quartz , post gelding has run ok , and as a 4-y-o can still improve , but will need rain to stay away .
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Gone for Kynren at 14s. Couldn't have the jolly. Not guaranteed to act on the likely soft ground
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Any indication that Chilean is going to run? Price hasn't moved since the opening post a month ago.
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thrown a few £ ew at BATTERED 25-1+
2 nice runs back on AW after a break for new yard and should handle any ground. hopefully sneak in the race and they might put the headgear back on to wake him up. good luck with your picks. |
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No Chilean or Blue Mist however given the weather forecast it's no surprise Chilean misses the assignment but can anyone shed any light on why Blue Mist drifted so alarmingly on here last few days and as a result no surprise to see him scratched given he was one of them backed along with the jolly when antepost lists were born
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I doubt that there was ever much chance of Chilean running - it isn't as if he just drifted in the last week - just a shame you are left to speculate. I am sure they would have known that he was prominent in the betting.
Hopefully, not too many lost money. |
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roger charlton "tweeted" on march 20 that blue mist would not be running, horse in good order but will not be ready for the lincoln.
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Well done Roger. Many trainers are now on social media. It shouldn't be too difficult or time consuming to keep the public informed.
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Im on Kyren too at 14-1.
Think he is potentially well handicapped, finding himself only 5lb higher since the start of last season despite a string of top efforts in big field handicaps last year, including in the Spring Mile when he was poorly drawn. Wasnt raced as a 2yo so possibly more improvement to come too. |
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Another one for Kynren.
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FWIW
9/16 4 yr old 14/16 won over 1m 15/16 9-04 or less 8/16 OR 95-99 16/16 aged 6 or below 13/16 won 2-4 times 12/16 drawn 9 or above 8/16 ran at doncaster 6/16 won lto 8/9 carried between 9-00-9-04 10/16 fav unplaced 3/12 W Haggas trained Gd/Sft at the moment,clerk of the course suggesting it could be good ground or even quicker come saturday. Plenty jocked up now,Humbert sits at 22,6 in the field proper yet to commit rider wise. What are the chances of Remarkable being off colour on the morning of the race? Fahey should know whats required,Gabrial is a grand old yardstick,Third Time Lucky ran 3rd in the recent AW trial. Requiring 2 more to come out,his 3rd entrant Great Prospector looks a dark one. Good enough to contest the Dewhurst as a 2 yr old,his 3 yr old career does not set the pulse racing. However, couple times he showed that ability is still there,something looked amiss mid season where he had a long break until returning back end,all 3 runs then not devoid of promise. Tackled the 1m trip only once,one year to the day of saturdays renewal,staying on nicely into 5th. From a high of 106,that 3 yr old campaign has seen him dropped to 97,that could just under estimate him. Should he make the cut,he does look a forlorn hope,decent ground holds no fears,and we know he,s with a very canny operator. One of plenty that look interesting for the season ahead. No bet as yet,wait to see how that entry game pans out. |
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Great preview, Nocturnal.
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Been watching this market with interest since it's inception and have to say I'm so glad I took 8s auxerre when I did as it's allowed me to get a few others at tasty prices too lol as I always do!
Ie salt at 20s, kynren 16s, humbert chiefs south seas all 25s and a couple 33s However 7/2 now?? Thanks for allowing the value but surely this auxerre will be 11/2 Saturday dinner time?? |
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Thanks li
Stick with Great Prospector at the advertised prices. Sneaks in at the bottom,Hanagan booked,main hitman for the stable at one time,not the force of old. Can see the angle for Kynren,dangerous looking mark,very lightly raced 5yr old. The jolly looks a likely improver,he will need to be to win off OR 100,for winning a class 3 h,cap LTO Not a race to get too heavily involved,so early in the season. Best of luck those playing. |
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auxerre for me, get the vibes it's a lot better than this ( ie similar to last years winner ) ground looks like being on goodish side, soft might have been a concern. draw looks good too , in view of recent winners.
I followed kynren over a cliff last year and do fear him but have had to draw a line in sand. |
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Another one signing in for Great Prospector, win and place. First time out maybe the time to catch him.
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Great Prospector (place). Would like to see where Aquarium ends up as well.
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Well done anyone who was brave enough to back the winner at a decent price. Appleby is definitely targeting the saturday handicaps and is a trainer to keep onside in these events this season.
Kynren looked beat 2f out so did well to finish so close. Bridesmaid again but Barron will find a race for him. Also burgled 16-1 about Beringer on Thursday so not too bad a result. |
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Well Done VK / MM .......All winners
Very taking performance from winner,having to do it the hard way. The time compares favourably with the listed race,30 minutes earlier. That may be him re handicaps,very bright future judged on that. No show Great Prospector,not given a hard time,no surprise he can get competitive dropped a little further. Just catching up on results,3 withdrawals due to ground,that sets alarm bells ringing this early. Would those trainers have declared on gd/fm ?,how do those balloted out feel ? Not a great advert for the opening turf flat meeting. |