Horse Antepost
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I have to go out , back at 2pm, lets see some activity on here.
About time this forum woke up.
I have to go out , back at 2pm, lets see some activity on here.
About time this forum woke up.
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Replies: 44
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Looked at last few years, noticed 2 out of last 3 years this won by horse placed in Tolworth Hurdle.
Was gonna jump on 33-1 Grand Sancy if he placed Saturday but somehow forgot, 25-1 when I remembered but still didn't bet. 14-1 now. So I'm prob biased against him now. Gone up 6lb now, that's off-putting. 4th in competitive h'cap time before last ridden by 5lb claimer, would need claimer again for me to be interested and maybe not then. |
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I know he's fav but Al Dancer looks very special, bit of class about him
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Agree with that just looked at Al Dancer and Getaway Trump both 8-1 and it's very hard to split them, they are worthy favourites.
Maybe, perhaps, I'm not sure, the trip could just swing it for Getaway Trump if it was 4 furlongs further I'd definitely go Al Dancer. Find it hard to believe anything could trouble these two. |
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I like the look of Lisp who should be suited by the fast run race. Could be near top of weights which is a bit of a negative. 20/1 is worth a punt
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On both the top two in betting at 10s 17/2* (*badbrokes odds boost) and 8s, early birds and all that, price was there at 0830 gone 0840 so went in again at 0845 took 8s yesterday
Also on Lisp at 25s and a speculative punt on a willy mullins hoss called Sayar at 25s, looking at his form has clearly had problems, might be throwing money down the drain here or might be on a dark one I also looked at Grand Sancy, but alas not for me at this stage, probs be 20s on the day anyways GL all  |
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i like lisp too , on the face of two seconds some will just look at the form figures and think hes plateaued , but , he has produced in high quality fields very progressive form ,in terms of the class of the race . each run is a big improvement on the previous if you look at the prizemoney . hes not treading water. in my mind he should be favourite , that is concerning .
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also the top 3 in the betting have been winning 5k - 10k races and the favourite has never even come under pressure (al dancer) thats a big neg . " your a long way from starbucks homie " says dr dre to ethan hawke in" training day " as are the top 3 in the betting !
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his profile is reminiscent of starchitect whom i had a good bet on before fate intervened . 111 in 5-10k races is not better than 1- 7k 2- 28k 2-86k
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No bet yet but just scanned the entries and a couple of things struck me:
Leoncavallo - seemingly rejuvenated since joining Dr Newland - Galway Hurdle form looks even better in retrospect on ground softer than ideal, admittedly not obviously well handicapped and would want the dry(ish) weather to continue Didtheyleaveuoutto - I'd be prepared to overlook his last run,but he would also need decent ground to be a contender I think A couple of warnings: Alan King has already ruled out Brandon Castle and Amy Murphy's Esprit De Baileys needs to run in another hurdle race in UK/Ireland/France to qualify and currently has no entries... |
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Those that have come here from novice hurdles have done well. Getaway Trump's 2nd in the £25,000 Challow hurdle is right up there with previous winners.
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Al dancer all day
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At the prices JETEZ at 33/1 for me.
I have backed him for this race before his Grade 2 second place today, where he gave the winner way too much of a lead, and was the only one able to pull away from the pack, in Chase, with 15lengths back to third. Still like him for the Betfair, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed on 136 official rating, or at worst go up only two or three pounds. They may well put on the 7lb claimer again, and get a really attractive weight. |
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Lacking originality, but another vote for Al Dancer here.
He was pretty impressive at Cheltenham. He's gone up 12lbs for winning (by 11 lengths, runner-up has won since) but reading between the lines suggests that NTD thinks he's still got a bit in hand (as he has on my ratings). He doesn't look ground-dependent either and although head gear usually puts me off there was nothing wrong with his attitude last time. This year's renewals of the Challow (Getaway Trump) and Tolworth (Grand Sancy) look a bit 'meh' to me, and nothing else appeals. 0.5pt Al Dancer @ 13/2 Good luck. |
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regardless of the result , i think the race will produce a top 3 finisher in the supreme and give formlines regarding other uk hurdlers class . this will be the foundation of my personal opinion regarding the supreme . imho i dont think al dancer will be cherry ripe for this as his profile and trainer suggest its all about chelts though i,m sure he,ll run well . we do know mr henderson will have one as good as can be though , also getaway trumps prep lto certainly suggests he will be full bore . a lot to consider for this race and the supreme . with trepidation regarding lisps price i will wait , has he already given full bore lto ? not sure . sure it will be interesting though best of luck
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53 entered.
I read on trend site 60% of entries were pulled out at 5 day stage one year. Wonder if this is the norm. In a normal year, disregarding the year Mullins was going for British trainers title, there have been between 1 and 3 Irish trained runners. Hard to know who will come over. Gary Moore seems to love this race and both Not Never and Ar Mest picked up 5lb penalties this week, see he has 10lb claiming jock too. Just Getaway Trump 8-1 for me so far, mostly 6-1 now, if they offer 6 places on day might go for something e.w. |
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53 entered.
I read on trend site 60% of entries were pulled out at 5 day stage one year. Wonder if this is the norm. In a normal year, disregarding the year Mullins was going for British trainers title, there have been between 1 and 3 Irish trained runners. Hard to know who will come over. Gary Moore seems to love this race and both Not Never and Ar Mest picked up 5lb penalties this week, see he has 10lb claiming jock too. Just Getaway Trump 8-1 for me so far, mostly 6-1 now, if they offer 6 places on day might go for something e.w. |
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It was 56 entered.
Only 4 Irish left in, if I have that count right. Checking their official ratings in Irish Ladbroke and Betfair is as follows. Lad Betf Saglawy 147 149 Jetez 136 145 Sayar 136 134 High Expectations 129 133 Not Never 130 130 not Irish but was entered in both, surprisingly pulled out of Betfair Looking at that Jetez hasn't been treated as kindly as the others. With difference in Irish and English Official Ratings why hasn't Not Never rating been dropped for Ladbroke? |
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Looking at that now you'd think,or I would, that Jetez must take in the Lad hurdle at Leopardstown. I've convinced myself 14-1 e.w. is worth a bet.
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i dont like al dancer myself . watching the vt of his last run although he "stayed on strongly and won easily "what that doesnt say is that he came under a full bore ride from sam after the last whom imo overrode him (spacially unaware ). subsequently hes been put up all he has in the locker at this moment . i also dont like the way he climbed at the last rather than making a shape
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With plenty of the wet stuff in the forecast I, like a few earlier posters, really like Lisp e/w - the high weight tempers me from having a win only bet.
14/1 currently is decent value but will wait till Friday evening and see what offers are available as I'm sure some bookies will be going 6 or even 7 places. |
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On reflection I have decided to have a decent bet (2/3 win, 1/3 place) at the 14/1 now as I can see it being a fair bit shorter come Friday evening.
Will then back it again each way at the best odds/terms possible on Friday/Saturday - the place parts of my bets is only ever to cover stakes anyway. |
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al dancer and getaway trump have been found by the market. besides, only one horse in the last ten years has won this race carrying 11 stone 5 or more, and that was last year with kalashnikov.
think monsieur lecoq very interesting if the price also short. nordic combined also interesting. |
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With novices having such a good record Zanza at 25/1, 5 places is also worth a few quid e/w.
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Did anyone get to see what the final decs were ?
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21 left in on Betfair antepost, only one Irish.
I was sitting pretty with Getaway Trump 8-1 and easy trades on him and Al Dancer, how could I not win? Always a way not to. And I haven't been pretty for years. |
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Will this be rescheduled next weekend, assuming racing goes ahead on thursday? If so, is antepost prices still valid in the event of withdrawal/s or a new one be formed? Thanks.
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Different firms have different rules on rescheduling of races where antepost is concerned. If rescheduled for a different venue the general rule of thumb is all antepost are void, including any non runners that were placed before entry stage. Although some firms do offer the punter the choice to keep or void not all do i am afraid the onus is on the punter to contact their bookie and ask.
If the race is rescheduled to run at the same venue then all antepost stand run or not as they did before. Happened a few times to me where i've 'backed' the winner of a rescheduled race antepost only to find my stake returned after the event  One Man - King George rescheduled from Kempton to Sandown is the one that really sticks in memory Though i had a few bets on him on the day tooAnother time was when the King George was run in the January, i backed Sizing Europe, thinking it would be a void bet as sure to reschedule at Sandown again i was shocked when they rescheduled back at Kempton so was lost when Hdb decided to not run. |
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Many thanks.
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The one that sticks in my craw is Master Oats' Welsh National in '94. I had a decent ante post bet on him only for the race to be rescheduled to Newbury a few days later and the bet therefore voided. He dotted-up at Newbury by 20 lengths
Still, every cloud and all that. I'd also had a decent bet on him for the Gold Cup at the time and got ample compensation when he dotted-up again in March by 15 lengths.  On soft ground he was one of the best I've seen. What a year that was for Kim Bailey, with Alderbook taking a busman's holiday to hose-up in the Champion Hurdle as well. |
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Now to be run at Ascot on Saturday (along with the Denman Chase)
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Did Ballyandy have Nailor Or Savage on claiming 7lb ?
Thanks ReaseHeath. |
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No, Jamie Bargary was on Ballyandy. Nailor was meant to be riding Splash of Ginge.
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neither - Jamie Bargary - Nailor was claiming 7lb on Splash Of Ginge but 'Ginge' surely won't run on Saturday if it continues to dry out so jockey arrangements for NTD could be subject to change ('flu vaccinations permitting)
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they've reverted to the original entry list which is neither use nor ornament at this stage
of those who were among the final decs at Newbury, Countister, Leoncavallo and Monsieur Lecoq won't be able to run because thy have n't had a 'flu jab in the last 6 months - I'm sure there will be more but they're the ones I can find on Twitter just now... |
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Plucked from another site........probably useless for this renewal.
11/11 aged 5/6 10/11 2 runs or more current season 8/11 ran within 63 days 9/11 2 prev wins 15-17 f 8/11 OR 132 or above 7/11 1 win or more current season 9/11 OR 141 or below 6/11 OR between 132-137 From original decs Chtibello off 146 ? tops the weights,everything looks in the handicap proper if thats the case,weights set to go up 7 lb if thats correct. Quite what we get entry wise,as Rease points out,complete guesswork. The timing to the Festival would still be ok,4 weeks sounds about right if your seeking to blow the cobwebs away,and protect a mark. Looking for a young horse thats not shown his hand completely,but will have some winning form down the line. Take out last years winner,Zark and MTOY,a very narrow ratings band between 132-137 for 6 recent winners,that may be a starting point. Not a big fan of right handed tracks,not convinced many produce their very best form this way round,find one that does and it can be worthwhile long term. Does feel like this is an after-thought,but way better than how it looked just a few days ago. Still the winner is in there somewhere,hold off until overnight decs. |
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lisp reminds me of get me out of here , he should go well . i reckon al dancer will need to be the dogs nads . i think the jump in grade will find him out . getaway trump is all based on his champ run and those that finished behind either havent run or not run as well as expected , i sense there is still hope regarding the nick gifford horse .
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What happens to ante post bets on this race ... now that course has changed from Newbury to Ascot
I have better ante post with betfreds |
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Using the Denman Chase as a guide all antepost bets refunded given a different day and course. Thus the same would apply here too.
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