Horse Antepost
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It's obvious after Newcastle that he is a speed horse that won last years C hurdle in spite of being unsuited to the track.In a fast run Champion Hurdle he will REALLY flatten the hurdles!!!,and he wont find landing uphill or downhill after the flights so unforgiving.
Then he will have to contend with the hill,and under pressure he will less likely to jump the last two well enough.So basically if they get him off the bridle most of the way he may not have enough left [a bit like last year,NEARLY!!!] to repel challengers.
OK he may win in a photo,but at current odds I bet all his opponents will have twigged to his achilles heel.Anyway,should be able to tell before halfway in the race pace-wise,how the race is likely to turn out.One more thing,i saw on the racing channels after his win at Newcastle how much they lauded his victory, but never mentioned the difference between the Newcastle track and Cheltenham,and actually asked why he was so impressive at Newcastle,yet not so much at Cheltenham.Shame they don't realise that Newcasle is a speed track,where your horse can outpace another horse if you can travel well enough,and Chelters although a galloping track has undulations,and a very stiff hill at the finish.
All are designed at Cheltenham to break a horses rhthym if he is a speed horse.Classic example of this was Madison Du Beurlais [excuse spelling],winner at Newbury,lost at Cheltenham [couldn't get into a rhthym]and then went to Kempton [speed track] and upset the odds on P. Nicholls hotpot [Denman,or Kauto Star ?].
Vintage Crop won the Ces and the Melbourne Cup, both wide open basically long flattish straights.Yet ran in the Champion Hurdle and was never sighted.As always a case of Horses for courses,or types of courses ?.At current odds the fav in the Champion hurdle looks poor value.
Then he will have to contend with the hill,and under pressure he will less likely to jump the last two well enough.So basically if they get him off the bridle most of the way he may not have enough left [a bit like last year,NEARLY!!!] to repel challengers.
OK he may win in a photo,but at current odds I bet all his opponents will have twigged to his achilles heel.Anyway,should be able to tell before halfway in the race pace-wise,how the race is likely to turn out.One more thing,i saw on the racing channels after his win at Newcastle how much they lauded his victory, but never mentioned the difference between the Newcastle track and Cheltenham,and actually asked why he was so impressive at Newcastle,yet not so much at Cheltenham.Shame they don't realise that Newcasle is a speed track,where your horse can outpace another horse if you can travel well enough,and Chelters although a galloping track has undulations,and a very stiff hill at the finish.
All are designed at Cheltenham to break a horses rhthym if he is a speed horse.Classic example of this was Madison Du Beurlais [excuse spelling],winner at Newbury,lost at Cheltenham [couldn't get into a rhthym]and then went to Kempton [speed track] and upset the odds on P. Nicholls hotpot [Denman,or Kauto Star ?].
Vintage Crop won the Ces and the Melbourne Cup, both wide open basically long flattish straights.Yet ran in the Champion Hurdle and was never sighted.As always a case of Horses for courses,or types of courses ?.At current odds the fav in the Champion hurdle looks poor value.
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What a waste of (virtual) ink.
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So basically if they get him off the bridle most of the way and which horses will do that??????????????????
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Interesting theory, but yes, whose gonna compromise their own race?
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answer geoff is basically which trainer ?..Have you never seen horses sacrificed making the pace for another horse?.irrespective of who owns what even.
Did u not watch the Ces this year?.look at todays results. twig ?. |
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Ravin Black tried that a Sandown and BD was incredibly impressive. At the time there was only 10lbs between them and RB loves Sandown to boot.
Fast pace suits BD all day long. I’m not a backer at 6/4 but a muddling stop - start gallop is more likely to get him beat if I was a layer. |
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I think the answer is - if it's dry in the lead up to the race don't water the track - but that will never happen now.
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I don't think BD is a speed horse and I don't know why people do, certainly not from running away from a 3 mile chaser in the making up at Newcastle surely and not I would assume from outstaying Melon last year, and definitely not from failing against VB. The quickest he's looked was probably when he won his first CH where he tanked into the lead, but even then he didn't really quicken away.
In the panthenon of CH winners, he wouldn't be in the argument of one of the quicker ones I'd have thought. He's a very strong stayer at the trip where a fast pace will see him in his best light where he can outstay the opposition. |
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I think his 3rd in the Supreme behind Altior and Min and just getting up to beat Petit Mouchoir at Aintree over 2m indicated stamina his forte. He'd need to be held up until the last; just held on and beaten once after taking it up 2 out eg Champion Hurdle (Melon) and Verdana Blue (X'mas Hurdle) respectively.
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Don't win as many 2m races without speed as he has.
Yes he stays really well,has won an aintree hurdle,thats the combination that's so deadly for a champion hurdler,a combination that suits Cheltenham over 2 miles. Similar conditions as last year he could be vulnerable again,but normal ground on the Tuesday,to get him beat you have to find a better horse than him over 2m at Cheltenham. Good luck with that. |
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He won his 1st Champion Hurdle through his speed and staying power,his 2nd was more about staying because of the conditions.
Tough nut to crack for sure in a champion Hurdle. |
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He just needs to be held up (my main concern, not his ability) until the last hurdle to beat these lot including Laurina (IF) she turns up.
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Well Laurina(plus her allowance)may simply be better than BD.
That would get him beat!! |
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Maybe, but Laurina beat non-entities in all her races so far; she even dodged the Tolworth. I think deep down Mr Mullins knows what the best race for her at the Festival.
As I said earlier my main concern is how he's ridden; he'll struggle to win if he takes it up with 2 hurdles to go. |
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Are you facking stupid ??
Laurina is not a novice, the Tolworth as we've said to you on a different thread is a race for novices |
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p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y 06 Jan 19 15:31
Are you facking stupid ?? He is a monumental cretin. |
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i like sharjah at the moment , but , a lot of water to pass under the bridge yet . shame there doesnt appear to be a group flat horse that could upset the applecart
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will win ..... end of
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pipedreamer 01 Jan 19 17:54 Joined: 25 Feb 05 | Topic/replies: 550 | Blogger: pipedreamer's blog
answer geoff is basically which trainer ?..Have you never seen horses sacrificed making the pace for another horse?.irrespective of who owns what even. Did u not watch the Ces this year?.look at todays results. twig ?. Gotta have the horse with sufficient quality. Tell me a horse thats capable of doing it?? Buveuir Dair is his own biggest danger .Lightning fast /low /efficient jumper super slick. But if he hits 1 like he did @ Kempton thats his biggest danger imo. |
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as a 8yo which is prime id be surprised if he gets beaten . generally youd look at last years top novices to come on s. boy , samcro , but , theyve both regressed so sharjah whom has failed last year but looks to have regained his pomp looks the biggest danger
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Pipedreamer.
Did you not watch last years race; Which trainer and owner ran a pacemaker to try and unsettle/get @ Buveur Dair?? |
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Geoff,the answer to your question is they didn't.Perhaps they have given it a thought,and now they will !!.
basically i'm saying that BD isn't good value at the price.We all I trust remember the Golden Freeze debacle,messing up Carvills Hill. So never say never !!. |
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Looking at the markets Laurina must be marmalizing Sharjah on the gallops.
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geoff m 17 Jan 19 09:13 Joined: 23 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 13,058 | Blogger: geoff m's blog
Pipedreamer. Did you not watch last years race; Which trainer and owner ran a pacemaker to try and unsettle/get @ Buveur Dair?? pipedreamer 19 Jan 19 16:49 Joined: 25 Feb 05 | Topic/replies: 551 | Blogger: pipedreamer's blog Geoff,the answer to your question is they didn't. answer is they did. The unsettle/get @ buveur Dair was a bit tongue in cheek as the pacemaker was IN FOR BUVEUR DAIR. |
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Golden Freeze was a totally different scenario he was there to harry Carvills(was actually there that day) upfront.
But all about opinions . Biggest danger to B.Dair is himself his greatest asset/low/ fast /efficient hurdling could also be his undoing if he clouts 1 like @ Kempton. |
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Everyone knows he's the best horse with several pounds in hand of the rest so stop talking him down; the Kempton race was not run to suit similarly last year's CH renewal.
Laurina is the talking horse because of where she's stabled, and not known form. |
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How wasn't the Kempton race run to suit exactly?
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I think he did not get sufficient cover due to the small number of runners and sub-standard field except Verdana Blue, And forced to take it up 2 out was the cause of his defeat.
I hope the pace will be strong, and Geragthy a wee bit more patient and only make his move at the last. |
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a lot of dense reading at the top , and your welcome to your opinion . unless your a superstar at the top of your game , winning the champion hurdle should be your very best . bvd has won the champion hurdle twice already and finished third in the supreme where he was ridden to place behind altior . that is the best form there is and there is no sign of a new top notcher this season . i wouldnt back at 11/8 nor lay either i think its about right 19 runs 15 wins says so .
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Enter Apple's Jade.
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geoff m 01 Jan 19 10:43 Joined: 23 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 13,225 | Blogger: geoff m's blog
So basically if they get him off the bridle most of the way and which horses will do that?????????????????? I think we found out yesterday. Welcome Aplles |Jade to the party. Thankfully Elliott after sleeping on it reckons common sense will prevail and reckons she will run |
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Rock on, I've never had a bad word to say about the chuckle brothers
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geoff m 20 Jan 19 11:38 Joined: 23 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 13,519 | Blogger: geoff m's blog
Golden Freeze was a totally different scenario he was there to harry Carvills(was actually there that day) upfront. But all about opinions . Biggest danger to B.Dair is himself his greatest asset/low/ fast /efficient hurdling could also be his undoing if he clouts 1 like @ Kempton. and so it was to be........unfortunately |
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It happens...it's horse racing; I'd Idaho at 10/1 (I think) antepost for the Leger, and what happened? It's part and parcel of the punting game.
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I'm surprised no one has come up with the obvious answer to the OP's question.
Clue : Jockey. |