Horse Antepost
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Source - japanracing.jp - entries and ten year stats
Almond Eye(JPN) F3 Sakae Kunieda - current best odds - 1/1 - fav
Capri(IRE) C4 Aidan O'Brien 20/1
Cheval Grand(JPN) H6 Yasuo Tomomichi 7/1
Ganko(JPN) H5 Shigeki Matsumoto 50/1
Happy Grin(JPN) C3 Junji Tanaka 150/1
Kiseki(JPN) C4 Kazuya Nakatake 14/1
Makahiki(JPN) H5 Yasuo Tomomichi 12/1
Mikki Rocket(JPN) H5 Hidetaka Otonashi 20/1
Mikki Swallow(JPN) C4 Takanori Kikuzawa 40/1
Noble Mars(JPN) H5 Hiroshi Miyamoto 100/1
Satono Crown(JPN) H6 Noriyuki Hori 40/1
Satono Diamond(JPN) H5 Yasutoshi Ikee 7/1
Sounds of Earth(JPN) H7 Kenichi Fujioka 66/1
Suave Richard(JPN) C4 Yasushi Shono 7/1
Thundering Blue(USA) G5 David Menuisier 30/1
Win Tenderness(JPN) H5 Haruki Sugiyama 50/1
C = Colt (2-4 Y/O), H = Horse (5 Y/O & UP), G = Gelding, F = Filly (2-4 Y/O), M = Mare (5 Y/O & UP)
Seeking the winner
Check conditions for previous race
The last nine winners of the Japan Cup all
(1) had finished in the Top 2 of “a G1 race held at the Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse,”
(2) had finished in the Top 3 of “a G1 or G2 race held from April of the same year,”
(3) were horses aged 5 or less,
(4) had 24 career starts or less,
(5) were Japanese horses.
Any runner that clears all of the conditions outlined in Tables 1-5 above must therefore be regarded as a leading contender.
Other features shared by the nine recent winners were that they had contested a JRA race in their previous race, that they had finished in the Top 6 of their previous race, that they had been backed as 5th favourite or higher in their previous race, and that they were ranked “6th or higher” in the estimated time over the final three furlongs in their previous race.
No Top 3 finishes for foreign horses in last 11 years
All 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years have been Japanese horses. The last foreign horse to finish in the Top 3 was Ouija Board (third place in 2006). In other words, our primary focus should again be on Japanese horses.
Focus on runners that have enjoyed success in G1 races held at Tokyo or Kyoto Racecourse
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 (excluding 2008 winner Screen Hero) had experience finishing in the Top 4 of a “G1 race held at the Tokyo or Kyoto Racecourse.” In addition, runners that had triumphed in a “G1 race held at the Tokyo or Kyoto Racecourse” achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 39.6%.
When looking at the track record of this year’s runners, we should check their performances in a major race held at Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse.
Track record from April of same year also important
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 (excluding 2013 third-place finisher Tosen Jordan) had experience finishing in the Top 4 of “a JRA G1 or G2 race held from April of the same year.” In other words, we should expect little from runners without recent successes and those that mainly competed in races other than JRA G1 and G2 races
Runners aged 6 and above struggle
All 20 Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years were “horses aged 5 or less.” Meanwhile, “horses aged 6 or above” achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 4.3%. We should therefore lower our expectations of horses aged 6 and above
Almond Eye(JPN) F3 Sakae Kunieda - current best odds - 1/1 - fav
Capri(IRE) C4 Aidan O'Brien 20/1
Cheval Grand(JPN) H6 Yasuo Tomomichi 7/1
Ganko(JPN) H5 Shigeki Matsumoto 50/1
Happy Grin(JPN) C3 Junji Tanaka 150/1
Kiseki(JPN) C4 Kazuya Nakatake 14/1
Makahiki(JPN) H5 Yasuo Tomomichi 12/1
Mikki Rocket(JPN) H5 Hidetaka Otonashi 20/1
Mikki Swallow(JPN) C4 Takanori Kikuzawa 40/1
Noble Mars(JPN) H5 Hiroshi Miyamoto 100/1
Satono Crown(JPN) H6 Noriyuki Hori 40/1
Satono Diamond(JPN) H5 Yasutoshi Ikee 7/1
Sounds of Earth(JPN) H7 Kenichi Fujioka 66/1
Suave Richard(JPN) C4 Yasushi Shono 7/1
Thundering Blue(USA) G5 David Menuisier 30/1
Win Tenderness(JPN) H5 Haruki Sugiyama 50/1
C = Colt (2-4 Y/O), H = Horse (5 Y/O & UP), G = Gelding, F = Filly (2-4 Y/O), M = Mare (5 Y/O & UP)
Seeking the winner
Check conditions for previous race
The last nine winners of the Japan Cup all
(1) had finished in the Top 2 of “a G1 race held at the Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse,”
(2) had finished in the Top 3 of “a G1 or G2 race held from April of the same year,”
(3) were horses aged 5 or less,
(4) had 24 career starts or less,
(5) were Japanese horses.
Any runner that clears all of the conditions outlined in Tables 1-5 above must therefore be regarded as a leading contender.
Other features shared by the nine recent winners were that they had contested a JRA race in their previous race, that they had finished in the Top 6 of their previous race, that they had been backed as 5th favourite or higher in their previous race, and that they were ranked “6th or higher” in the estimated time over the final three furlongs in their previous race.
No Top 3 finishes for foreign horses in last 11 years
All 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years have been Japanese horses. The last foreign horse to finish in the Top 3 was Ouija Board (third place in 2006). In other words, our primary focus should again be on Japanese horses.
Focus on runners that have enjoyed success in G1 races held at Tokyo or Kyoto Racecourse
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 (excluding 2008 winner Screen Hero) had experience finishing in the Top 4 of a “G1 race held at the Tokyo or Kyoto Racecourse.” In addition, runners that had triumphed in a “G1 race held at the Tokyo or Kyoto Racecourse” achieved an excellent Top 3 ratio of 39.6%.
When looking at the track record of this year’s runners, we should check their performances in a major race held at Tokyo Racecourse or Kyoto Racecourse.
Track record from April of same year also important
Of the 30 Top 3 finishers over the last 10 years, 29 (excluding 2013 third-place finisher Tosen Jordan) had experience finishing in the Top 4 of “a JRA G1 or G2 race held from April of the same year.” In other words, we should expect little from runners without recent successes and those that mainly competed in races other than JRA G1 and G2 races
Runners aged 6 and above struggle
All 20 Top 2 finishers over the last 10 years were “horses aged 5 or less.” Meanwhile, “horses aged 6 or above” achieved a Top 3 ratio of only 4.3%. We should therefore lower our expectations of horses aged 6 and above
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Source JAPANRACING.JP
The 38th Japan Cup Handicapper’s Report on the Japanese Contenders The past 37 running of the Japan Cup (G1, 2,400m) were won by 23 Japanese runners and 14 foreign contenders – the last of the foreign winners being Luca Cumani's Alkaased (USA, by Kingmambo) in 2005 and the following 12 up to last year won by our own local runners. This year, two foreign contingents are slated to run for the title and put a stop to Japan’s winning streak. Capri (IRE, C4, by Galileo) trained by Irish trainer and one of Europe’s leading horsemen, Aidan O’Brien, was the winner of two three-year-old classic titles last year, the Irish Derby (G1, 2,400m) and the St. Leger (G1, 2,900m), and while the Alleged Stakes (G3, 2,000m) is his only group-race victory this season, he has remained a major factor in big events such as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1, 2,400m) and the Champion Stakes (G1, 1,990m) in which he finished fifth and fourth, respectively. Another European contender, British-trained Thundering Blue (USA, G5, by Exchange Rate) has yet to win a group-one title but his rating of 119I assigned to his third-place performance in the International Stakes (G1, 2,050m) stands above Capri’s 118L as of his fifth place in the Arc. While facing middle-long distance turf runners in Japan that are of high standard with the additional advantage of racing at home will be a tough task to take, there is much anticipation for the two outstanding runners from abroad to demonstrate their true form and be among the top finishers. This year’s Japan Cup will miss Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1, 2,000m) victor and last year’s Japan Cup runner-up Rey de Oro (JPN, C4, by King Kamehameha) but the 2018 field has gathered several top G1 calibers from all generations including the season’s three-year-old triple crown filly Almond Eye (JPN, F3, by Lord Kanaloa). Much attention is focused on whether the filly, who became the fifth filly in JRA history to accomplish the triple and coming off a five-race winning streak since breaking her maiden in her second career start, is able to pull off another feat in following Gentildonna (JPN, by Deep Impact). in 2012 as the second three-year-old filly to claim the Japan Cup title. Here are the details on the potential Japanese runners: Almond Eye has proved herself at another level from her fellow three-year-olds in her three G1 starts run at various course and distances; the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas, G1,1,600m) at Hanshin Racecourse, the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks, G1, 2,400m) at Tokyo, and the Shuka Sho (G1, 2,000m) at Kyoto. Her arsenal is no doubt the finishing speed which has marked the fastest (last three furlongs) in all six of her career starts and the long and wide homestretch at Tokyo gives her every chance to demonstrate her power. Her sire Lord Kanaloa (JPN, by King Kamehameha) was a multiple G1 sprint winner including back-to-back victories in the Hong Kong Sprint (G1, 1,200m), but the speedy filly has already proved well equipped to handle 2,400 meters when winning the Yushun Himba for which she was rated 115, the highest and tying with Gentildonna (2012). Almond Eye also has the advantage of carrying 53kg in her Japan Cup bid against a mixed field of top senior G1 caliber. Only four three-year-olds, colts and fillies combined, have succeeded in winning the Japan Cup in the past but the Lord Kanaloa filly has a good chance to become the fifth three-year-old Japan Cup winner in partnership with Christophe Lemaire who is the current leading JRA jockey. Her best rating as of this season is 115M,I,L as of her victories in the Oka Sho, the Yushun Himba and the Shuka Sho. The senior runners that the filly will be facing include the following among which, according to data, the four-year-olds have had the edge over the other age groups in the number of past winners. The two G1 winners from the four-year-old group that pose as a threat are: Suave Richard (JPN, C4, by Heart’s Cry) is the second highest rated four-year-old behind Rey de Oro in the JPN Thoroughbred Rankings with three out of five career wins won at 2,000 meters including his first G1 victory this year in the Osaka Hai (G1, 2,000m). He can also handle extra distances as demonstrated in his runner-up effort to Rey de Oro in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1, 2,400m) and his victory against his seniors as a three-year-old in the 2017 Copa Republica Argentina (G2, 2,500m) in which he carried 56kg (equivalent to 58kg for older horses) but won by 2-1/2 lengths. Despite proving well suited to Tokyo Racecourse, he was defeated in his two recent starts, the Tenno Sho (Autumn) and the Yasuda Kinen (G1, 1,600m), but these can be excused due to a disadvantage in the former where he was pinched back right after the start and the mile distance in the latter that was way too short for the Heart’s Cry (JPN, by Sunday Silence) colt. In a smoothly run race where he can make use of his lasting speed, Suave Richard has the ability to be a serious threat under Mirco Demuro, currently second in JRA’s jockey standings. Suave Richard is rated 121I as of his victory in the Osaka Hai. Kiseki (JPN, C4, by Rulership) struggled after his victory in the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger, G1, 3,000m) last year but regained his form this fall with a third-place finish in the Mainichi Okan (G2, 1,800m), two starts back, and validated the run with a class performance as a classics winner with another third in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) last month in which he dictated the pace and held on gamely to finish 0.2 seconds behind winner Rey de Oro while holding off 2017 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas, G1, 2,000m) victor Al Ain (JPN, C4, by Deep Impact). His versatility has broadened his chances in different situations within the race so his positioning can vary depending on the pace and how the race unfolds. Another favorable factor for the Rulership (JPN, C4, by King Kamehameha) colt is that five out of 10 recent Japan Cup winners have come off the Tenno Sho (Autumn). His rating 119I is as of his third-place finish in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). While past data shows that those coming off the Tenno Sho (Autumn) have had the edge in claiming the Japan Cup title, two standouts from the five and six-year-old group come off the Kyoto Daishoten (G2, 2,400m) for the coming G1 race, and for the reference, the last two Japan Cup winners came off the same race held at Kyoto. Satono Diamond (JPN, H5, by Deep Impact) won the last leg of the three-year-old Triple, the Kikuka Sho, in 2016 then proceeded to claim the year-end Arima Kinen (G1, 2,500m),beating a tough field of senior G1 talents that included subsequent Horse of the Year Kitasan Black (JPN, by Black Tide). But while the son of Deep Impact (JPN, by Sunday Silence) is counted among one of the top runners in the Japan Cup field, the five-year-old has just come out of a prolonged slump since being heavily defeated in the 2017 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe followed by a winless spring campaign that consisted of sub-par performances in three starts and hopes to build up on his first win in 19 months last start in the Kyoto Daishoten. Satono Diamond has a record of three wins; the Arima Kinen, the Kobe Shimbun Hai (G2) and the Kyoto Daishoten, and a second in the Tokyo Yushun which he just missed by a nose, out of four starts in Japan at distances between 2,400 and 2,500 meters. His latest win in the Kyoto Daishoten did not exactly show a complete return to his best, but there is much anticipation towards his second start of the fall over 2,400 meters at which he excels. Joao Moreira, who has been racking up wins and staggering winning rates in JRA races, is expected to take the reins. Satono Diamond is rated 117L for his victory in the Kyoto Daishoten. Japan Cup defending champion Cheval Grand (JPN, H6, by Heart’s Cry) has been considerably consistent throughout his career, especially at distances at 2,400 meters and beyond, in which he uses his stamina and lasting speed, and has finished worse than fourth in just two starts out of 16. Following his successful fall campaign last year, the son of Heart’s Cry comes off the same racing plan of improving on his first up run coming off a summer break in the Kyoto Daishoten. The six-year-old has turned in good results in all three career starts at Tokyo Racecourse where he has two wins; the 2017 Japan Cup and the 2016 Copa Republica Argentina, and a third in the 2016 Japan Cup, so his chance to become the second consecutive Japan Cup winner may not be all that slim. His half-sister Vivlos (JPN, M5, by Deep Impact) is also a G1 winner of the 2017 Dubai Turf (G1, 1,800m) – she finished second in the same race this year. Cheval Grand is rated 117E for his runner-up effort in the Tenno Sho (Spring) (G1, 3,200m). Other notable runners in the field include Takarazuka Kinen (G1, 2,200m) victor Mikki Rocket (JPN, H5, by King Kamehameha) who claimed his much-awaited G1 victory in his seventh G1 attempt by saving ground before making an early move to assume command into the stretch and held of a powerful chase by Hong Kong’s Werther (NZ, G7, by Tavistock) and other late chargers for the win. Dismissed to eighth choice in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) despite his Takarazuka effort, the son of King Kamehameha (JPN, by Kingmambo) demonstrated his continued good form with good speed from the inside to come in a close fifth, 0.4 seconds behind winner Rey de Oro. While the five-year-old is lacking in a quick turn of speed, Mikki Rocket possesses long-lasting speed that can carry over extended distances so the extra 400 meters in the Japan Cup should be an advantage and, if the race development unfolds into a situation where he can make another early move to the front, he has the ability to rally for the top position to the wire. He is rated 120L for his victory in the Takarazuka Kinen. |
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This has been a good race for me over the last few years and my good run will probably come to an end on Sunday but I've backed a couple EW over the last couple of weeks. Wagnerian was going to be the bet but he missed the Tenno Sho (Autumn) and then wasn't confirmed for this race... so I had to look elsewhere. I've never been a Satono Diamond fan or backer but Betfair Sportsbook haven't spelt his name correctly and they didn't price him up correctly either 2 weeks ago. I took the 16-1 they were offering as a value bet... I also liked that the Magic Man was booked to ride him as well. He ran a nice prep, winning at Kyoto and looks like Ikee (trainer) might have him back in a good place. His sole run at Tokyo he nearly beat Makahiki in the Derby so Tokyo shouldn't be a problem either. The other one I've backed EW is Kiseki and took the 14-1 on offer. He's had his issues like Satono Diamond over the last year but seems to be coming back to his old self. He's also sired by Rulership... a big favourite of mine when he was racing. Not sure front running tactics are the way to go with him (odd) and not massively confident of his chances winning but the price swayed me in the end.
Almond Eye looks a special filly and hasn't put a foot wrong in her G1 races, winning all of them with a great turn of foot. I wouldn't put anyone off her as she looks pretty much bombproof but her price is not my way of betting. As Roz has posted 3 yr olds (colts/fillies) haven't go a good record in this race but Gentildonna won the triple crown like Almond Eye and won the Japan Cup so it can be done... she looks as good as Gentildonna IMO. Love Cheval Grand and been a big supporter of him over the last few years but he hasn't looked the same horse this year... no Hugh Bowman (banned) either this time. The Euro raiders have got a poor record in this race so another swerve for me but Capri ran pretty good in the Arc and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit the frame... looks like he's traveled and settled in well. 20-1 with B365 was tempting!  Link for the entry list below... Makahiki was scratched today and will not run. https://umanity.jp/en/racedata/race_7.php?code=2018112505050811 |
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Thanks for the link , Dinos.
Im not really one to follow stats - they are there to be broken and often are I too like Kiseki - you have any idea which one Buick will be riding ? |
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Buick rides Satono Crown.
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Japan Cup the Barrier Draw
1. ALMOND EYE 2. HAPPY GRIN 3. SATONO DIAMOND 4. SATONO CROWN 5. MIKKI SWALLOW 6. THUNDERING BLUE 7. SOUNDS OF EARTH 8. KISEKI 9. CHEVAL GRAND 10. GANKO 11.SUAVE RICHARD 12. CAPRI 13. NOBLE MARS 14. WIN TENDERNESS Past two winners have come from barrier 1... three in a row? Happy with the draw for my two but Tokyo is a fair track and no major draw bias. Smallish field compared to most years as well. |
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I don’t know how Capri landed up here so I’ll pick him.
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I can see O'Brien's Capri running well in a race like the Japan Cup - At the end of the day it won the St Leger in 2017 at Doncaster, as well as beating the Epsom Derby winner Wings of Eagles and the mighty Cracksman in the Irish Derby.
Capri is as low as 7/1 for the Hong Kong Vase on the 9th December....but i cant see how they would be using the Japan Cup a warm up for a race the yard won last year - It would be brilliant to see OBrien win this race and would have to be one of the yards biggest achievements in the last decade imo if he was to do so. |
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Training Report of Capri
Japan Autumn International November 22, 2018 (Thursday) Today, At Tokyo Racecourse> Weather: Cloudy Going: Firm (turf course) Capri (IRE, C4, Gray) - jogged in exercise arena for 7 min. (ridden by Kevin Tobin) - walked, cantered up to 2nd corner, walked, cantered from 1,400m marker, galloped in straight, ridden by Ryan Moore on turf course (exercised from 7:37 to 8:04) Jockey (J): Ryan Moore Q: Sitting on Capri this morning for the workout, how did the horse feel? J: We’re very happy with him. He’s travelled and settled in very well and Pat’s very happy with how he is. He moved well today. He seems to be in good shape. Q: You’ve raced with Capri in four races and won three in the past. Your only defeat was in his last race in the Champion Stakes. What do you think was the reason for the defeat. J: His last race was only 13 days after he ran the Arc where he ran a good race and was fifth. He ran the trial before the Arc. Maybe the Ascot just came a bit too soon. Q: Looking at his past performances, Capri seems to be doing extremely well on softer surfaces. As you are familiar with the track here in Japan, how would you judge his suitability to the course here? J: Most of his races have been in Ireland, maybe on softer ground. When he won the Irish Derby, it was actually quick. The Tokyo track is very fast but at least it’s flat and it’s stable. He’s coming here freshened up and he was moving well this morning, so I think he’ll be ok. Q: Can you describe Capri’s outstanding points and what kind of race development and positioning would benefit your horse in the coming race? J: He’s a very straightforward horse. He’s good-minded, very relaxed. He’s two-year-old form was very good. He had a good year as a two-year-old and he has won two classics. Fortunately, this year, he started well then he had a setback after his win. He ran a very credible race in the Arc and I feel that the race in Ascot was too short of a turn around. He didn’t run badly, this horse very rarely runs a bad race – so his form is very good, when you look back when he won the St. Leger, he beat Crystal Ocean and Stradivarius, Rekindling. When he won the Irish Derby he beat Cracksman, Wings of Eagles and Waldgiest who are all group-one winners. He needs to come back to that, to be involved against some high-class horses and show the exceptional form that he was last year – as I’ve said, he’s a straightforward horse and that is probably his quality benchmark facing some of the best horses here like Almond Eye (obviously the best one here), Satono Diamond, Cheval Grand and Suave Richard – it will be a very competitive race. |
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Training Report of Capri
November 23, 2018 (Friday) At Tokyo Racecourse Weather: Fine Going: Firm (turf course), Standard (dirt course) Capri (IRE, C4, Gray) jogged 6 min. in exercise arena, walked, jogged 1/2 lap, cantered and breezed in stretch 1 lap, walked, jogged 1/2 lap (dirt course) (exercised from 7:35 to 8:00, ridden by Kevin Tobin) “He’s improving by the day, he’s settled in well and his movements this morning were very good. He really likes the surface, he was good yesterday as well and that’s Capri, he has big beautiful strides and I’m pleased with him. Regarding the draw, it is what it is and I’m sure Aidan and Ryan will have a plan. I’ve heard that a lot of the Japan Cup winners have come from hind numbers so we’re not worried. We’re going to take him out on the dirt tomorrow morning and do the same kind of work as today.” |
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Only managed to get 12s on Kiseki as my main bet - plus the 20/1 on offer for Capri has hooked me into an ew interest too
I've just been looking up the prize money for this race - unbelievable. Thats 120k GBP for 6th place Prize Money 1st - £2,000,000 2nd - £800,000 3rd - £500,000 4th - £300,000 5th - £200,000 Participation Incentive Money 6th - £160,000 7th - £140,000 8th - £120,000 9th - £60,000 10th - £40,000 |
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8th place - lol
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Capri looked like he worked pretty well on the firm turf track the other day.
Link below features all runners (race card order) last piece of work which includes sectionals. Satono Diamond has pretty much always worked well in Japan (not so in France)... he can flatter to deceive which is my nagging doubt! Hoping the Magic Man can be the difference on him this time. http://jra.jp/keiba/thisweek/2018/1125_1/training.html Good luck with your bets tomorrow. |
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I have to watch the replay every year - is there a way i can watch it live? anyone know?
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DUBAI RACING CHANNEL have live coverage from Japan
http://www.dmi.ae/dubairacing/live.asp?cid=55 |
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Brutal...
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Awesome performance by the filly, smashed the track record. Kiseki ran a blinder from the front setting a super strong pace... she had a bit more speed than him in the end.
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sick , Kiseki ran a great race but fair play to the filly - think its safe to say its been an above average race this year.
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