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31 Oct 18 12:51
Date Joined: 26 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 771 | Blogger: shockster's blog
56 Entries including 12 from Ireland.

Pause Switch to Standard View Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessey) 1st...
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Report shockster October 31, 2018 12:56 PM GMT
This is the richest handicap chase behind the Grand National.

It's got a great record for 2nd season chasers.  Looking back at recent winners, most went on and ran in the Gold Cup. So if you can't see the horse your backing being good enough to line up in the GC in March it probably isn't good enough.
Report deepingfox November 1, 2018 3:04 PM GMT
Studied the form and videos, and I am happy to take 28/1 JANIKA for this one, boosted by ladies. The Henderson/Munir/Jacobs team, with horse that tore into his first two fence victories in Auteuil before transferringocer here. Two of his victims have gone on to show  improved form since, so if he is given a weight of 145 or lower next week, I can see him being very competitive off that Mark. Fingers crossed Hendo thinks the same.
Report deepingfox November 1, 2018 3:05 PM GMT
Boosted by Laddies not 'Ladies'!
Report Nogoody November 1, 2018 4:28 PM GMT
Followed you in, thanks for the heads up. I never had much time for sniveling Nicky but I think he's going to have a great year. For all his faults, there are few better at having them right on the day.
Report shockster November 11, 2018 12:19 PM GMT
The 2.20 at Sandown today has 4 entries that are engaged in the Hennessey. Terrefort, Coo Star Sivola, Elegant Escape & Thomas Patrick. Could and probably will affect the betting.
Report nocturnal November 11, 2018 2:49 PM GMT
Good work Shockster.........I like that Gold Cup angle up the top.

A few stats from another site looking at last 12 runnings

11/12  Aged 6-8
6/12   LTO winners
7/12  Ran within 55 days
7/12  Top 3 betting
4/12  Winning favourites
9/12  Ran at Newbury
8/12  Won at Newbury
11/12  Minimum 3 runs at 3m or beyond
11/12  Minimum 4 chase runs
9/12  Rated 150 or above
7/12  One run or more current season.

Lowest winning rating 145 (State of play)

Highest rating 174 (The Tank)

Only Denman has carried more than 11-06 to victory in those 12 runnings.

Bobs Worth / Many Clouds both carried 11-06 as 7 yr olds.

Native River carried 11-01 back in 2016 as a 6 yr old.

Some fantastic horses have taken this on the way to much better things.

Looking at the entry this far out,using the age stats,a rating above 150,weight limit 11-06,leaves a very select few.

Al Boum Photo
Snow Falcon
Black Corton
Clan Des Obeaux
Mister Whitaker
Invitation Only
Monbeg Notorious
Willoughby Court
Elegant Escape
Yala Enki

Not in anyway a definitive guide to finding the winner,jeez if it was that easy we would not be on here discussing it.

Plenty will change prior to final decs,weights,jockey bookings and any headgear to name just a few.

The one I do like is in there,guesswork at this stage if he runs here.

The domination of the Irish horses last season,not withstanding the GC,cannot be overlooked,especially in staying chases.Long thought of this as a good guide for those English / Irish trainers that want an early indicator just where their horses may stand in handicap terms,in effect a scouting trip.

Come back to this much nearer the time,to try and narrow down that shortlist,be interesting to see how many of those stand their ground,and of course how they run.
Report ReaseHeath November 11, 2018 3:16 PM GMT
thanks, noc - key take out for me from today is therefore that Elegant Escape will be off 11-02 with today's penalty if Thistlecrack runs but will now have to carry at least 11-07 if his stable mate comes out.

Thomas Patrick will be 5 lbs better off for a 0.5 length beating in the Ladbrokes Trophy - visually I'd still expect Elegant Escape to come out on top on the revised terms but if Thomas Patrick can replicate today's round of jumping and you factor in the bigger field and the fact that front running tactics have been effective in recent renewals of this race then he'd have every chance of reversing the places.

I don't think Coo Star Sivola or Terrefort will run in the Ladbrokes Trophy now. Terrefort already had the option of the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree on Dec 8th before today and I reckon Henderson will err on the side of caution and send him there for a confidence builder. Nick Williams stated pre today's race that Coo Star Sivola would only run in the Ladbrokes Trophy if today suggested he was still well handicapped - it did n't.

Potentially looks an exciting renewal to me - agree with shockster (other thread) that it will be enhanced if Thistlecrack runs.
Report shockster November 20, 2018 3:21 PM GMT
With Thistlecrack likely to run in the Betfair Chase, it looks like Kemboy will now carry top weight.  It also looks like rain will be around from the middle of next week.

Big ask for Kemboy to win, but I think he has a real chance. I'll add Thomas Patrick and Ms Parfois for my 3 against the field.

If I'm being honest I don't think there is that much depth to this race. Quite a lot of exposed horses who won't be good enough.
Report shockster November 21, 2018 11:30 AM GMT
Just added Black Corton 25/1 to my other 3.  It's just too big a price in comparison to Elegant Escape. He'll have his share of weight but not sure there's much lurking at the bottom of the weights.
Report ReaseHeath November 21, 2018 4:27 PM GMT
yes, rose tinted spectacles from me thinking Thistlecrack would run here - it makes sense for him to run at Haydock and give Team Tizzard two chances at the £1m bonus - if he were to win on Saturday, I'd imagine he'll run in the King George and they'll send Native River elsewhere.Quite a big if though...

I like Thomas Patrick and Ms Parfois too - maybe American (if it rains)

Rock The Kasbah is starting to build a decent body of work over fences - I think the better ground is key to himin the sense that it helps his jumping.It would be a quick turnaround but technically 2lb well in for his Cheltenham win last w/e.

I have to wait before striking a bet, personally - would like to have a better idea about the likely ground
Report shockster November 21, 2018 8:33 PM GMT
The ground at Newbury after yesterdays media day was described as Good to Soft all over by the Jockeys.  As it stands Newbury are not planning to water as the weather is mixed next week.

Rease I'm sure Hobbs said Rock The Kasbah if OK goes for the Becher Chase the following week.
Report ReaseHeath November 21, 2018 9:05 PM GMT
thanks, shockster - I remember the RTK comments now, short term memory is shocking these days...Happy

Promising for the likes of Thomas Patrick and American on the ground front then - and for the meeting generally given there are still plenty of horses awaiting proper winter ground for a run
Report SOULDANCER November 22, 2018 8:19 AM GMT
Clerk of Course Tues.
  This season had to use more water than in last 4 years put together. Walked it this morning, ground good, good to soft in places.
Forecast is for showers but the weather is unpredictable.
  Frost coming Thurs, mindful that any further watering can only be done in certain areas.
Report shlotter November 25, 2018 2:22 AM GMT
If the horse I fancy goes, once I have got my wedge on it I will post my sound advice. My a..e in bits after many consecutive weekends of fine wines, Guinness and champagne from horsey profits... Crazy
Report gpz6316 November 25, 2018 10:08 PM GMT
i like thomas patrick , and i dont like gob****s whom claim they,ve been supping all their winnings and might give us the steam of their pi ss . do one shlotter
Report shlotter November 26, 2018 3:27 AM GMT
ahh thomas patrick would have a chance at dee weights like. i wouldnt be putting off ye him now
Report shlotter November 26, 2018 3:31 AM GMT
i think you just gave away the winner and I tend to agree with you gpz, he will definately be in with a big chance
Report shockster November 26, 2018 10:25 AM GMT
Plenty of rain now in the Newbury forecast. Can't wait to be getting on the train at 5.58am on Friday morning. Excited
Report shockster November 26, 2018 2:17 PM GMT
Alysson Monterg
Ms Parfois
Otago Trail

Are all entered in the Rehearsal Chase on Saturday as well as this race. Worth noting if playing this late. They may go to wherever it's softest?
Report ReaseHeath November 26, 2018 5:07 PM GMT
yes, I noticed that - it kinda puts me off American for this a little bit, less so Ms Parfois (based on what I've read I'd be pretty sure Ms Parfois will run at Newbury but less so American).

I think this race declares Thursday and the Rehearsal Chase Friday. Is that right?

Enjoy, Shockster - never been to Newbury, I was at Haydock on Saturday - thoroughly enjoyable but the rain surely means bigger fields this w/e which will be more of a spectacle (both the novices chases at the Newbury meeting look interesting as well even though some are double entered).
Report ReaseHeath November 26, 2018 5:07 PM GMT
yes, I noticed that - it kinda puts me off American for this a little bit, less so Ms Parfois (based on what I've read I'd be pretty sure Ms Parfois will run at Newbury but less so American).

I think this race declares Thursday and the Rehearsal Chase Friday. Is that right?

Enjoy, Shockster - never been to Newbury, I was at Haydock on Saturday - thoroughly enjoyable but the rain surely means bigger fields this w/e which will be more of a spectacle (both the novices chases at the Newbury meeting look interesting as well even though some are double entered).
Report dunlaying November 26, 2018 7:05 PM GMT
I think Flying Angel is an interesting possible . Go back to his early form and he looks like a Class 2 horse . Good hurdle form and he beat Cloudy Dream and Top Notch at levels . He goes on any ground and is in form . The trip is the problem . But he had a wind op after one failure at three miles and he ran well enough behind Definitly Red to suggest that he could stay . Only 7 and with no weight I will back him if declared .
Report dunlaying November 26, 2018 7:19 PM GMT
He has dropped 15 on official ratings and might get put up after his second to Mr Medic .
Report shockster November 26, 2018 7:49 PM GMT
Newbury is a long way from Yorkshire but myself and a few lads have been going to this meeting since 2005. Smashing little town as well. Funnily enough I missed Saturday as usually get to Haydock and Aintree as not far at all.

Not sure if you noticed but as it stands Kemboy only has a 3lb penalty not 4lb as this would take him to 11st 13lb and 11st 12lb is the max weight.  We were discussing previously on another thread about a similar scenario regarding Terrefort.

Big price Flying Angel if he did come back but distance has to be a worry.  Doesn't cost a lot to find out though at the price.
Report shockster November 27, 2018 9:35 AM GMT
Ladbrokes are NRNB now on this race.
Report shockster November 27, 2018 3:36 PM GMT
Noel Fehily is Jocked up on American at NEWCASTLE on the Racing Post site.  It looks as if Fehily will be there for Summerville Boy, so it could have a bearing on where American runs?????
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 27, 2018 4:58 PM GMT
It has been raining all day in Newbury.
Report shlotter November 28, 2018 12:24 AM GMT
Thomas Patrick I have been steadily backing.  I have him on my handicap four pound better then his mark. Should be a good race. Best of luck to one and all.
Report shockster November 29, 2018 10:12 AM GMT
Ladbrokes Trophy (14 Runners) - Kemboy, Black Corton, Elegant Escape, American, Dingo Dollar, Thomas Patrick, Sizing Tennessee, Beware The Bear, Go Conquer, Ms Parfois, Allysson Monterg, Flying Angel, West Approach, The Young Master.
Report shockster November 29, 2018 11:57 AM GMT
Kemboy has escaped his penalty and actually runs off 157.  No penalties to increase a weight above 11st12lb. He and Black Corton are Joint top weights.
Report sixtwosix November 29, 2018 12:40 PM GMT
14 runners is a low turnout , they should be having more possible runners than places for this magnificent race.

Antepost bets Kemboy 14/1 , Thomas Patrick 14/1 , Elegant Escape 10/1 , Sizing Tennessee 33/1
Report brownie November 29, 2018 2:25 PM GMT
unfortunately no kemboy due to ferry issues
Report shockster November 29, 2018 2:36 PM GMT
Kemboy will miss the Trophy at Newbury on Saturday due to travel problems.

The six-year-old emerged as a leading contender for the prestigious handicap – formerly known as the Hennessy Gold Cup – when making a successful start to his campaign in the Clonmel Oil Chase a fortnight ago.

Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins, who won last year’s renewal with Total Recall, had seven contenders at Monday’s confirmation stage, but Kemboy was his only declared runner.

The Supreme Horse Racing Club-owned gelding was due to make the trip across the Irish Sea on Thursday morning, but with his ferry cancelled and delays possible for later ferries, plans were abandoned.

Steve Massey, racing manager for the owners, said: “It’s obviously very disappointing.

“We were looking forward to having a horse with a leading chance in such a prestigious race, but we can’t do anything about the weather.

“The ferry was cancelled this morning and the ferries later tonight could be delayed. Even if he did get a ferry late, he could have a rough trip and might not get to Newbury until the early hours of the morning.

“It’s a big blow and disappointing for all his owners, but we know he’s an exciting horse and we have to do what is in his best interests.”

Kemboy was the 9-2 favourite for historic handicap following the final declaration stage.
Report 1st time poster November 29, 2018 2:58 PM GMT
just becoming another 3 mile Saturday handicap these days,declining year by year imo,very uninspiring
Report sixtwosix November 29, 2018 2:59 PM GMT
Down to 13 ..... might be double figures come race time.
Report 1st time poster November 29, 2018 3:00 PM GMT
remember backing silent valley in this against bright highway, don't think silent valley could win Saturday,s race

mind you he is about 50, LaughLaugh
Report 1st time poster November 29, 2018 3:02 PM GMT
66 to 1 shot ,sibton abbey running down jodami still hurts
Report sixtwosix November 29, 2018 4:04 PM GMT
Bregawn belting the last in 1982 ,giving Captain John a 3 length start and then flying past him .....he was some horse.
Report penzance November 29, 2018 6:22 PM GMT
would'nt say it's declining,had two GC wnrs
and a GN wnr,win it in the last few years.
Report shlotter November 29, 2018 9:58 PM GMT
I never ever forgave Dunwoody for getting beat on Brown Windsor. I did my birthday money and three months pocket money on him.
Report Autocue November 30, 2018 2:37 PM GMT
I've been watching Flying Angel after seeing him make his chasing debut at Perth two years ago. I thought he was an impressive looking individual with the size, strength and form over hurdles to suggest he could go to the top as a chaser. It hasn't worked out that way although he did win the Kingmaker and a Grade 1 at Aintree as a novice. I have a theory that he has struggled at times with back problems as he has looked awkward over fences and his second season chasing was very disappointing. His rating has dropped as a result from 157 to 142. Last time out was the best I have seen him jump when he made a lovely shape over every fence. If my theory is right, he looks over his problems and can progress again as he is only 7 yet has loads of experience. He hasn't impressed beyond 3 miles but he isn't necessarily a non-stayer. He was running through the line last time over 2m5f and he didn't run a bad race when hindered by awkward jumping in a Grade 2 3m1f on heavy ground behind Definitly Red (received 1lb) and Cloudy Dream (levels) who both perform reliably at levels in the high 150s without being superstars.
I don't think Nigel would have entered him in this early closing race as an afterthought and it's interesting that he's got two runs into him, the last only 8 days ago. I'm not concerned about this as he backed up his win in the Imperial Cup with a fine second in the competitive Martin Pipe race at the Festival 6 days later. He must have a chance at the weights and is still 25/1 with bet365 and a few others.
Report Autocue November 30, 2018 2:42 PM GMT
While I typed that the other bookies have shortened him so it's only bet365 standing 25/1. He's blue across the line on oddschecker so it looks like he's a player.
Report nocturnal November 30, 2018 3:00 PM GMT
Agred Autocue.......Interesting horse.

He had the visor on last week for first time,that might be the angle.

Jumped really cleanly,he will be stepping into unknown territory distance wise,but so will many of these at what promises to be a decent gallop.

Followed him since the big newbury handicap run when hurdling,little too big in an open looking contest.
Report Ibrahima Sonko November 30, 2018 3:57 PM GMT
Amazed how decent the ground is.
Report Autocue November 30, 2018 5:15 PM GMT
Having offered the biggest price most of the day bet365 are now second shortest at 16/1. I'm old enough to remember when bookies used to back their judgement Shocked
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 1, 2018 8:38 AM GMT
I always look at these races with hindsight, clicking over every possible result and thinking could they win a gold cup after winning the Hennessy.

Only 2 today could possibly line up in the GC, Elegant Escape & Ms Parfois.
(American needs it bottomless,may line up but has zero chance, been well campaigned)

Ms Parfois is not even entered for Kempton.

Given the history of females winning makes me side with Elegant Escape,he is a bit slow but he might just be good enough.
Report Facts December 1, 2018 9:48 AM GMT
I look at Oddschecker with healthy scepticism . Bookmakers feed these prices to Oddschecker site,
Great way of falsely manipulating prices to encourage punters to bet the ' blue rush'
Report Autocue December 1, 2018 11:38 AM GMT
Fair enough but in Flying Angel's case it was warranted as 33/1 yesterday morning was too big for a young former grade 1 winner who looks like he might be coming back to form and is running off a low weight. 16/1 is a fair price as he has to prove he can stay the trip but I've had another go EW with Sky as they're paying 5 places in a 12 horse race. According to Ollie Bell this morning there is only one grade 1 winner in the race - Black Corton. Judging by his reaction after Bristol de Mai last week it grates with NTD that his horses keep getting ignored after all these years but now and again he pops up with one at a decent price.
Report nocturnal December 1, 2018 1:55 PM GMT
Just the 12 disciples remain, from an entry of 56.

Only 3 from the stats list on page one take their chance

Black Corton
Elegant Escape

Withdrawals have changed the handicap somewhat,those three carry 11-09 and upward,no easy task.

Elegant Escape meets virtually everything stat wise,the one concern I would have would be his jumping.He does tend to miss the odd one out,that may improve with experience.

American has been a "talking horse" for sometime,conditions look to be coming right,will need a personal best to defy this mark first time up.

Black Corton still looks on the upgrade,impressive strike rate,not so sure he needs good ground,today may tell us more.

Thomas Patrick and Ms Parfois should both be in the mix,the mare first time up after wind op may need this,not convinced they will push her too hard with other targets on the horizon.

Flying Angel has found the pin,plenty guesswork just how he will perform,they are a target stable with handicappers,touch of class looking through his form,the softer conditions just might see him travel a little kinder.

Tricky heat,GL to those playing.
Report ReaseHeath December 1, 2018 2:21 PM GMT
did n't play antepost but one of the rare occasions when I wish I had.

Backed Thomas Patrick win only and Allysson Monterg ew this morning.

Like Ms Parfois but slightly concerned by stable formn

Good luck!
Report unclepuncle December 1, 2018 3:17 PM GMT

Credit to Matt Brocklebank.
Report nocturnal December 1, 2018 5:45 PM GMT
Well played 626 / All winners......very impressive display.

Flying Angel was underwhelming,moved up going out onto 2nd circuit,hastily beat a retreat as the race unfolded at the business end.Lacked fluency,very similar to Aintree run,that revised mark will make him very hard to place,maybe return to hurdles for confidence,hard to take any positives from that.

Backers of American will be scratching their head,looked beat after one fence,something may surface,never looked happy at any stage.

The time looks decent,in comparison to others recorded on the day,plenty more people qualified in that dept,be interesting to hear any thoughts on that.

Have to hold your hands up when getting it wrong,today was one of them,onwards.
Report FELTFAIR December 1, 2018 5:56 PM GMT
Excellent time on soft ground.The second also excellent carrying a lot of weight.
Report sixtwosix December 1, 2018 6:48 PM GMT
I can't recall which tipster it was who suggested backing him at 33's , but glad I took his advice.
Report sixtwosix December 1, 2018 6:49 PM GMT
Always saw this race as a Grand National trial since Maori Venture finished strongly in it , quite a few of these could be players, the winner certainly looks good enough.
Report Ibrahima Sonko December 1, 2018 7:27 PM GMT
At least we know elegant escape wont be winning a gold cup.
Report FELTFAIR December 1, 2018 7:35 PM GMT
On soft ground he would have a chance.
Report sixtwosix December 1, 2018 7:39 PM GMT
I thought Ms Parfois ran a cracker without a prep race till running out of gas , solid chance if turning up at Chepstow on the 27th.
Report Autocue December 2, 2018 11:08 AM GMT
Has Flying Angel finished yet? Started jumping well then went flat backed again. I have to accept he's not one to be trusted to stay sound. He might win another good one some day but my fingers are burnt and I'll miss it.
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