Horse Antepost

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The Headmaster
15 Oct 18 11:48
Date Joined: 14 Nov 01
| Topic/replies: 3,875 | Blogger: The Headmaster's blog
There look to be an awful lot of horses with holes in them that are currently engaged in this race.  And there are quite a few horses that are in the same yard, so unless Gosden, O'Brien, Mullins etc have multiple runners the field size could collapse too.

Sir Erec improved a whopping 33lbs (RPRs) on his fourth start on Sunday.  He's totally unexposed, bred to stay 2 miles and loves cut. 

No idea if he's even being considered for this but 100/1 is insane (if you can get it) and the 50/1 next best price is bloody big too. Laying 1/5 1st 3 I wouldn't be going much bigger than 14/1.
Pause Switch to Standard View Sir Erec 100/1 BC Long Distance Cup
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Report harry callaghan October 15, 2018 12:13 PM BST
you do love a priced horse headmasterGrin

i have to say if taking up his entry he is a really fair shout tbf if that race didn't take to much out of him, ive done this race to death tbh...are the 5 day decs out yet or is it the 22 the racing post have up do you know headmaster??
Report The Headmaster October 15, 2018 12:23 PM BST
Yes I do Harry.  Thankfully, for the forum, I only start threads on the ones I'm really sweet on Grin

I'm keen to take on the fav here. The balance of his form would suggest soft or worse ground would be a negative, and they drilled him to get the million up (understandably).  He was reportedly pooped after York so at a shade of odds-on I'm happy to pass.

When you start going through the rest it really takes very little time to get down to Sir Erec.  Multiple out-of-form horses, multiple non-runners, including one that isn't even in the continent at the moment, I could go on!
Report The Headmaster October 15, 2018 12:24 PM BST
Confirmations, including any supplementaries, will be out in about an hour hopefully.
Report harry callaghan October 15, 2018 12:33 PM BST
i'm the same pal i want to get him as well, it's a shame they aren't nrnb he still ran well in this last year though, so him not handling the swamp is not a guarantee but we have to try as it certainly isn't his ideal

like you say countless out of form horses and this horse devoured the swamp at limerick and picked up strong in the furlong that day, however the second did collapse quicker than a cheap millets tent and isn't the most willing lets just say but the third horse is a good stick to rate the race so he is a cracking long shot if taking up the engagement

are those the 5 day decs on the racing post do you know headmaster 22 left if so, i have one other that interests me but not sure if it is a guaranteed runner??
Report harry callaghan October 15, 2018 12:33 PM BST
ah thanks
Report harry callaghan October 15, 2018 1:23 PM BST
12/1 i think it's fair to say, you have a minor edge headmaster...fair playGrin
Report The Headmaster October 15, 2018 1:39 PM BST
For those that aren't on I really think the 20/1 is still a big price given what's left in the race.  I've had a top up.
Report The Headmaster October 15, 2018 1:42 PM BST
Twilight Payment seems to be a reliable old stick and on a line through him Sir Erec has very little to fear from anything.  And he's fresh.  And he's improving. And he's 20s.

Not many you can say that about.

Just need him to run now Confused
Report harry callaghan October 15, 2018 1:43 PM BST
you really are a horrible thief headmaster, i admire itLaugh
Report harry callaghan October 15, 2018 2:49 PM BST
you won't know he is a runner till thursday now i'd say but they clearly fancy taking a shot with him headmaster
Report Mystic Wind October 15, 2018 3:24 PM BST
Certainly an interesting horse - the way he bounded clear inside the final furlong at Limerick was visually taking and left the impression that stepping up to 2 miles might see him in an even better light. Good luck Headmaster, I've had a few quid on him at 20/1 just for S&G.
Report The Headmaster October 15, 2018 4:05 PM BST
Thank you Harry and MW.  I see he's in the Prix Royal-Oak the following weekend too, which is good in terms of what his trainer perceives him to be, but not so good if he needs another week.  But at these sort of prices my moto is bet first, pray later.  20s gone now.  The remaining 16s I still would not want to lay (assuming Kew Gardens and Capri are no-shows he'd be 3rd in on my book).

What a shame Betfair decided to "optimise" (ffs) their ante-post offerings.  He would have been a very nice green on here, I'd imagine.
Report harry callaghan October 16, 2018 12:58 PM BST
headmaster if he is third in on your book who are the 2 above him just out of interest??
Report The Headmaster October 16, 2018 1:22 PM BST
Stradivarius and Flag Of Honour, Harry.  I wouldn't argue they found the right fav and 2nd was the order after that which got me excited.
Report harry callaghan October 16, 2018 1:37 PM BST
fair enough pal i'm not keen on either but least of all flag of honour and think thomas hobson is the play here at least that is what i've played a pleasure ew...if we ignore his early season form where melbourne clearly took plenty out of the horse like so many that try, i think he will reach his peak here on the swamp he desires and have played him, lets pray we get payed
Report the bloob October 16, 2018 8:48 PM BST
any idea which O'brien horses will run in this? I think Capri is the value if turning up in this
Report The Headmaster October 17, 2018 11:51 AM BST
V surprised if he goes, bloob.  Think more likely for the Champion.  Obviously Flag Of Honour is the No.1.  Hoping Sir Erec makes up the B team.
Report the bloob October 17, 2018 12:13 PM BST
yes, with no other obvious choice for the Champion I'm pretty sure Capri will run in that, although it's an inadequate trip the ground may bring it into the equation. I'm thinking of Kew Gardens as a viable alternative but I would think they would swerve this due to the short time since the Arc run

Coolmore do waste a lot of money on entries, I've just about given up backing their horses antepost
Report harry callaghan October 18, 2018 1:23 PM BST
well done headmaster, phase 1 completeHappy
Report the bloob October 18, 2018 2:03 PM BST
best of luck with this, the booking of Donnacha suggests it's not in this as a pacemaker
Report harry callaghan October 18, 2018 8:10 PM BST
i've had a small bet, it's a shame it hasn't ended up an 8 runner race but i like the horse, so have had a small win bet as he really is an unknown here and is seriously bred for the job along with thomas hobson ew who is my main fancy
Report harry callaghan October 19, 2018 12:30 PM BST
tricky to sort the pace of the race in regards to horses chances... flag of honour is very likely to go on here but in order for it to favour his other fancied horse sir erec surely he will want a truly run race, so will flag of honour take a lead from cypress creek who could be the lamb here or will flag of honour get loose on an easy uncontested lead...a slowly run affair will surely suit stradavarius who has a decent turn of foot and after a long season probably won't want a gruelling affair

much to ponder and i can't quite figure it out in regards how this will pan out pace wise
Report The Headmaster October 19, 2018 8:18 PM BST
Warm words aec, thank you. 

I'm sure we all know what's going to happen tomorrow.

The horse shortens all day, goes off 5/1...and finishes 4th.
Report bobbyjo October 19, 2018 9:22 PM BST
Great stuff HM, best of luck
Report deepingfox October 19, 2018 10:18 PM BST
Great stuff HM, just what the Ante Post forum is about, the spotting of overpriced horses, that we hope will shrink in price, and run in the race
I hope it comes off.
Report TYSON 2 October 20, 2018 10:06 AM BST
irrespective of getting paid out, this was a great post! good work. well done sir.
Report ReaseHeath October 20, 2018 10:45 AM BST
echo the two posts above - good luck HM
Report penzance October 20, 2018 10:52 AM BST

Report Andrew in Sweden October 20, 2018 10:54 AM BST
The Headmaster,

Irrespective of the result today, a very good shout, well done and good luck.
Report Mystic Wind October 20, 2018 11:06 AM BST
You can lay '3 places' at around 1.7 !
Report Platini October 20, 2018 12:36 PM BST
Just seen this post now.  What a brilliant pick. GL today Cool
Report Howellsy October 20, 2018 1:07 PM BST
Great call, great thread - surely one of best ever, win or lose.
Report TYSON 2 October 20, 2018 1:37 PM BST
great effort headmaster. well done!
Report Mystic Wind October 20, 2018 1:38 PM BST
20/1 place return for you, well done HM!
Report The Headmaster October 20, 2018 1:38 PM BST
Cheers all.  That was a close call - would have bitten your arm off for 3rd a furlong out. 

Well done anyway Sir Erec - you're going to make some 4yo I suspect.  Bet JP wouldn't mind him in the team.
Report harry callaghan October 20, 2018 1:39 PM BST
well done headmaster you got the ew pal so well done to you on an exceptional call, really enjoyed the chat on this thread

sickened really, i knew o'brien had to take the race by the short and curlys and he didn't and just set it up for stradivarius...had my bollox on that thomas hobson ew so a putrid result for me personally, although we obviously got the place it still sickens me he didn't get the run, although i have a feeling the winner was to good but no thanks to o'brien who similarly to the arc could of controlled the speed and didn't and just gave the race to gosden on a platter
Report Nutty Nigel October 20, 2018 1:42 PM BST
Great call HM
Report deepingfox October 20, 2018 2:39 PM BST
Great Play HM, glad you nodded the 3rd back from Ryan Moore on the line.
Report liberator of the oppressed October 20, 2018 5:33 PM BST
Yooo are still the man Headmaster class always tells.
Report Graeme83 October 20, 2018 5:38 PM BST
Well played headmaster.
Report Mystic Wind December 23, 2018 11:50 AM GMT
Fascinated to read that the highly-rated yet unexposed Sir Erec is being sent over hurdles, presumably with the Triumph Hurdle in mind. He must have shown the O'Briens something to warrant this bold move and is perhaps worth a speculative few quid @ 25/1 (I've taken some of that).
Report The Headmaster December 23, 2018 6:59 PM GMT
I've missed the 25 and this really isn't my sort of bet at all.  But given "Well done anyway Sir Erec - you're going to make some 4yo I suspect.  Bet JP wouldn't mind him in the team." I'm clearly obliged to join you MW!

Come on Sir Erec - we go again Love
Report Mystic Wind December 23, 2018 7:24 PM GMT
Hi Headmaster, TBH I couldn't get much 25/1 as Bet635 shut me down years ago and the others have done pretty much the same, letting me have a total of £12 at that price! Hey ho, it is what it is.

Sir Erec might be a foot note come Thursday evening, but there's also a chance that he might be 3/1 fav for the Triumph too, he's one of 'those'.

It's not usually my MO to back such a 'romantic' selection (I'm obsessive about proven ability via speed ratings) but sometimes you have to just read between the lines, especially when 'quality' connections are involved. Looking at Sir Erec's profile in the cold light of day, most reasonable judges would expect him to be wrapped-up in cotton wool this winter, ready for a cup campaign in 2019. The fact that he's going hurdling suggests one of two things to me:
1)He's shown himself to be a precocious 'lepper' at home, or
2)The connections fancy another Quixotic tilt at jump racing's Holy Grail (btw, Ivanovic Gorbatov made his hurdling debut in Thursday's race too).

Based on what we know now, would I back him at 10/1? Probably not, but at 20/1 or 25/1 I think a small punt is justified, albeit high risk.
Report The Headmaster December 27, 2018 3:58 PM GMT
What did you make of that, MW?  A pleasing first effort I thought. Still lots more to come from this racehorse, whether that be flat, hurdles or a fence one day.

Go on Sir Erec.
Report Mystic Wind December 27, 2018 8:44 PM GMT
Hi HM, I have a growing admiration for JPOB and I'm sure Sir Erec wasn't fully wound up for this. That said, it was a decent performance and if he improves from that debut (highly likely) then he is very much in the mix. The runner-up is apparently well-regarded, so perhaps it was better than it looked. Somewhere around 8/1 seems about right at this stage; if he wins a graded race next time I expect he'll be a pretty strong favourite for Cheltenham.
Report The Headmaster February 3, 2019 1:21 PM GMT
This horse could still be anything, Flat or Jumps.  I hope they don't cut him.
Report harry callaghan February 3, 2019 1:24 PM GMT
he looks like he could be a machine over hurdles...i'd be a tad worried he wouldn't have a stab at the supreme he looks good enough but if he goes triumph he will take some beating
Report The Headmaster February 3, 2019 1:33 PM GMT
Was a little worried today.  Track starting to rattle, thought he'd like a bit more give.  After that I wouldn't be scared to run him in any race, anywhere, Flat or Hurdles, over 1m 6f+ (including another go at Stradivarius if they fancied it).
Report Mystic Wind February 3, 2019 6:12 PM GMT
He's not in the Supreme (nor the Ballymore for that matter), so it looks as though all roads lead to the Triumph - assuming JPOB's tongue was firmly in his cheek when he said "we'll see what kind of handicap mark he gets" Shocked

Some of his jumping today was a little bit sketchy, but it was only his second start over obstacles so there's every chance he'll improve on that front. It's still game on at this stage Happy
Report Mystic Wind February 6, 2019 3:07 PM GMT
JP has just bought the biggest form book danger to a Sir Erec Triumph victory. Hopefully Fakir will be running in the Supreme now (market suggests so at this stage), which would leave the Triumph looking a pretty soft renewal (Sir Erec apart, of course).
Report onthejim March 7, 2019 4:11 PM GMT
Sir Eric well on drift today on here 6/5 this morning ,  can have 15/8 and coppers at 2/1 now!!!
Report John.W.Henry. March 7, 2019 4:15 PM GMT
Stone bruise
Report Mystic Wind March 10, 2019 7:47 AM GMT
Latest update from JPOB sounds encouraging, says he's been cantering and that all should be fine.

Money is usually the most reliable barometer, and his price seems to be holding-up pretty well on here.

Touching wood regularly!
Report The Headmaster March 14, 2019 10:51 PM GMT
I'm getting more and more confident, which is unusual on the eve of an ante-post bet. 

Report Mystic Wind March 15, 2019 8:57 AM GMT
Odds-on now Shocked
Report impossible123 March 15, 2019 10:12 AM GMT
Let's hope he wins this emphatically (like Tiger Roll did in the X-country), and be aimed at the 2020 Champion Hurdle (same ownership as Buveur D'Air).
Report liberator of the oppressed March 15, 2019 1:47 PM GMT
My heart felt commiserations Head that was desperately sad.
Report The Headmaster March 15, 2019 1:50 PM GMT
Devasted LOTO.  That horse absolutely had the world at his feet.  No knowing what he would have gone on to achieve, either on course or off it.
Report Mystic Wind March 15, 2019 1:52 PM GMT
That looked horrible. RIP Sir Erec, you'll be sorely missed.
Report liberator of the oppressed March 15, 2019 4:31 PM GMT
Head you are still de man I remember your very kind posts Royal Ascot some time ago you need a vindaloo and eight cans of super tenants you'll feel much better then.
Report Facts March 18, 2019 2:51 AM GMT
The way Sir Erec just stood stock still whilst being reshod at the start, was a pure joy to watch. A truly beautiful colt.
He looked so proud and magnificent with a definite aura of greatness around him.

For what happened minutes later was utterly devastating.
Such promise snatched away and gone for ever.

. Commiserations to all connections.

RIP Sir Erec
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