Irish Champion Stakes (15th Sept)

Thanks for the insight.

The present going is good to firm (music to the ears of connections of Alpha Centauri and Roaring Lion) with little rain forecast until saturday where 7mm is expected.

I just hope Oisin Murphy comes up the centre of the track like many previous winners and not the rails to challenge 2f or 1f out otherwise a car crash scenario could prevail for fav backers.

On eclipse running, there is nothing between Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior. The problems I have though, are,
1/ rl easily beat Poets Word at York, but I can't get away from the fact that PW and the stoute horse both killed each other at Ascot and that race has subsequently left its mark on them as they both ran below form nto. I said at the time that neither the King George first and second would win another race between them, I'm still of that opinion.
2/ The o brien stable was very quiet at York and good wood, but now their horses are running an awful lot better, but the fact remains that SW has lost every time he's gone further than a mile, though he was unlucky at sandown. To me he's a miler.

Of the rest I'm struggling to find a convincing argument for any of them, can't even find an each way angle, possibly front 2 in an exacta..overall it's a poor group 1.

Depending on what forecast you believe it could be pretty wet on Saturday afternoon and the shape of this and the Matron Stakes could change a lot.

I agree Saxon Warrior (SW) is a miler or 9f horse - he's no 10f champion; Roaring Lion beat him despite being pushed wide by his SW's stablemates to win a neck. SW might even retire if he wins The Irish Champion Stakes by default. However, if running in the QE2 Stakes at Ascot in October on softish ground with Alpha Centauri absent or in America he would win even if the French horses turn up.

The Stoute's two big guns would not have won a Gp 1 race between them here had Enable been present and/or Cracksman had had his ground, and distance - they might have improved from last season but several pounds below absolute top notch. They would not have beaten Found - a weak winner of The Arc - unlike Golden Horn or Enable; they would not have beaten Minding and/or Almanzor over 10f either.

Addeybb would interest me at the prices if it's wet enough - clearly been kept away from fast ground since his Lockinge flop, the fact that they've left him in is of some significance (though he is also in the Boomerang Stakes).