Betvictor Gold Cup Cheltenham 17th November

pmt what do you see as your main dangers in the race?

dont know. there will be some second season chasers who have improved . a lot of French horses take a season before they are at their best.

Obviously last season's form is a good place to start with unravelling this one, but it may pay to checkout the 0-140 Handicap Chase won by Javert at Uttoxeter on 23rd September.

Obviously the ground may well be different come mid-November, but this was a fast-run race, with the winner coming back from a 2 year-plus layoff. He was rated 140 going into the race and if he's put away until the Mackeson (yeah, I know - old skool, me) then'the bounce' shouldn't be a factor.

Perhaps of greater interest is Crievhill in second, given connection (Twiston-Davies) and his record in the Cheltenham race. Unexposed 6-y-o stayed on late.

Worth a look on the TV replays?

Definately worth a look Hanx.

The time confuses me a little,new course record,yet almost 3 seconds outside standard if the RP is to believed,is there a typo somewhere or am I missing something?

Gun to head,I would take out the 2nd and 4th from the race,both given interesting rides over the last few fences,neither pilot instil any confidence this end.

NTD no doubt will have his fair share entries,last years winner very ground dependant, Foxtail Hill might be in there too,never quite worked him out,early doors might be the time to catch him,dropped to a decent looking mark.

the time was 3 seconds faster than the same race in 2017, which was run on slightly slower ground.Looking at the only other chase run at the meeting this year Javert ran about 12 seconds faster , taking into account the changed distance but the winner of the other chase was only rated 103 which accounts for most of the difference. It is curious that the RP gives the time as both a course record and above average time but they did exactly the same in the 2017 race so i wouldnt give it much credence.

Baron Alco looked tailor made for this race.

Interesting discussion regarding standard time vs new course record. Standard times are supposed to represent the hypothetical time that a horse of a certain quality carrying a certain weight would be expected to clock in a true run race on certain ground. On the flat, I believe the parameters are a 100-rated horse carrying 9st 0lbs on Good ground, I don't recall the parameters over jumps.

For a race to be run slower than standard yet still a course record doesn't make much sense and would (to me) suggest 1 of 2 scenarios:
1) All previous races over the C&D have been contested by poor horses (unlikely), or
2) A mistake has been made.

The reason why I wanted a market was I knew Twiston Davies plan was to aim Ballyandy at this race since January.

Hopefully doesn't win by too far tomorrow at Wetherby to protect its 140 mark.

Was hoping for bigger but 20/1 will do.

Mark protected Meat Loaf

Yes may well be dropped to 138 - lovely.

It could well be a plan, you never know.

update on my sep 18 post.Baron Alco is being trained for this and will run barring injury. Has been put back to his 146 mark that he ran off in the Brown Advisory. His Chepstow run , beaten a head by Charbel was very satisfactory and we fancy his chances.

Thanks for that. Classic 'Likeable Sort,' as he ever run a bad race.
  Carrying my money so I hope he wins for you.

Ballyandy 137......Does the handicapper drink in the cotswolds?

That must be music to your ears ML,hope to see him in entries later this week.

Baron Alco 146.......Up 4lbs for his chepstow run.

Criminal really,off the best part of 18 months with injury,the horse looked keen as mustard,ran his heart out,does not win the race,yet incurs a 4 lb penalty.Charbel goes up 5 lb,the third horse gets dropped a 1 lb.

Everything that is wrong with the system to these eyes,surely in a sport where we should be encouraging owners / trainers to let their horses run on merit,this must have the complete opposite effect ?

What if Baron Alco had been dropped say 3 lb,would this make a difference to handicapping long term,effectively rewarding connections rather than penalising them ?

Sure plenty will have an opinion here,be good to hear them.

Echo Souldancer post....PMT has been a breath of fresh air here,lets hope they all make it,always a cracking race.

One final thought PMT......would you consider Aintree fences?,no need to answer just yet,love to see this lad in the Topham,he does remind me of Ultragold in many ways,just a thought.

Can't argue with the handicapper re. Baron Alco. Looking at Chepstow race, nothing between 1st and 2nd healthy gap to the third. Factor in his 2nd at Chelt to Road To Respect off 146, would have gone up at least 3lb to 149 for that.

Handicapper had dropped him 7lb for not running so after Chepstow puts him back up 4lb, still 3lb lower than after Chelt. Think he's entitled to now he knows Baron Alco is fit and well.
Baron Alco travelled well at Chepstow and looked the winner all day long, jumped a bit sticky till warming up. Looks sure to improve for the run and 4lb rise seems justified.

thanks nocturnal. Yes we have thought of the Topham and its probably on the agenda this season.In fact Gary has the Grand national in mind for him in a couple of seasons time. We will try him at 3 miles this season, maybe in the Betbright (sorry Racing Post chase). I think the handicapper was spot on raising him 4lbs for Chepstow. I was a handicapper myself and would have given him 4lbs too. You have to be fair to every horse in the race and give them all an equal chance if they run to their best form. he was dropped 6 lbs from the mark he was given after finishing 2nd to Road to respect who was getting weight from us. That looks like 150 form now so to get dropped to 142 was a gift.

Souldancer you are spot on. He went up 2lbs not 3lb which would have been more if the handicapper knew about Road to Respects next two runs.

Thanks both.....

Well reasoned Souldancer,put like that it makes sense,I see both your points regarding his potential mark after the cheltenham run.That long break does muddy the water,not the best example I could have chosen.

Barring any hold ups,with that fine run under his belt,just how much does have in the locker ?

That 150 looks a little lenient now,if we use RTR as a guide,all part of the jigsaw.

Maybe after 5 day decs we should have a mythical handicap.....that might be interesting

Does anyone know when the initial entries for the Bet Victor Gold Cup (and the Greatwood Hurdle) are announced?

I thought it was Tuesday or Wednesday this week.

the entries were made by 12 today.weights published nov 8th

Excellent pmt, thanks.
Should be up on the Racing Post site shortly then.
The weights for UK runners are known, Just the Irish to assess, I presume.

no, the weights are based on races run by saturday november 4th, 4lb penalty thereafter

sorry 5 lbs penalty

Gotcha, so anything entered to run, up to Saturday would be reassessed. Anything after that which wins, has 4lb.

51 Entries

ACTIVIAL (FR)
ADRIEN DU PONT (FR)
ASO (FR)
BALLYANDY
BALLYBOLLEY (IRE)
BARON ALCO (FR)
BEGGAR'S WISHES (IRE)
BENATAR (IRE)
BLACK SCORPION (IRE)
BORN SURVIVOR (IRE)
BOUVREUIL (FR)
CASABLANCA MIX (FR)
CEPAGE (FR)
CLOUDY DREAM (IRE)
COBRA DE MAI (FR)
COPAIN DE CLASSE (FR)
CRIEVEHILL (IRE)
DOLOS (FR)
EAMON AN CNOIC (IRE)
FRODON (FR)
FULL GLASS (FR)
GARDE LA VICTOIRE (FR)
GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (IRE)
GUITAR PETE (IRE)
HAPPY DIVA (IRE)
HENRYVILLE
JANIKA (FR)
JAVERT (IRE)
KALONDRA (IRE)
KING'S SOCKS (FR)
LE PREZIEN (FR)
MAGIC SAINT (FR)
MISTER WHITAKER (IRE)
MODUS
MOVEWITHTHETIMES (IRE)
RAMSES DE TEILLEE (FR)
RATHER BE (IRE)
RENE'S GIRL (IRE)
ROMAIN DE SENAM (FR)
SHANAHAN'S TURN (IRE)
SHANTOU VILLAGE (IRE)
SISTER SIBYL (IRE)
SIZING GRANITE (IRE)
SPLASH OF GINGE
THEINVAL (FR)
THISTLECRACK
TOP GAMBLE (IRE)
WEST APPROACH
WHOSHOTWHO (IRE)
WILLIE BOY (IRE)
ZAMDY MAN

JANIKA for me, in this one. May run in this and or Ladbroke, but as this is first, over shorter, I'm prepared to give the 28/1 price boost from Ladbrokes a go here too.
Really good in two Auteil chases, with well beaten horses since franking the form. Weights next week, hoping for 145 or lower.
Could be a dark horse for the race as he hasn't run in England, but Henderson/Munir/Jacobs, and seemed to jump and stay fences really well from the 2 videos of the Chase runs.

Mister Whitaker was one of the more obvious contenders for the BetVictor and one I was seriously considering backing until talk of him running in today's Colin Parker came to the fore. I reasoned that the races were closer together than ideal (13 days apart) and that if he won at Carlisle then he was likely to be bumped up quite a bit (as the race weights didn't favour him).

He obviously won today and the handicapper looks to have a straight-forward task in reassessing him, as lines through both Happy Diva and Cyrname put him on 151 or thereabouts.

His price has now contracted, and as there was also talk of him possibly waiting for Newbury instead the I can't back him for the BV at the moment. All the same, he's a smashing horse and good luck to connections.

Very progressive Mystic

Weights out on RP site.......Mister Whitaker 152

Hard to know where they go with him,looking at last years campaign they gave him plenty time between races,which he thrived on.

Goes both ways,superb jumper, not touched a twig last 2 races,not sure how fit he was at Carlisle,not stopping at the end, suggesting he could well get further.

Very hard to get a handle on him handicapping wise,just does enough.Just the sort of horse that would keep connections dreaming,lovely prospect.

Agreed Nocturnal, smashing horse. If he'd have gone straight to Cheltenham then I would have backed him, but now I'm not so sure.

Rather Be's fans will be pleased to see their horse has a 9lb pull for the head MW beat him in March, despite RB having gone up 6lbs himself for finishing 2nd! That highlights the fact that MW is now 15 lbs higher than when winning at the Festival - he'll definitely need to be progressive if he's to keep ahead of the handicapper! I haven't seen any further news from Mick Channon regarding plans.

I know some on here fancy Ballyandy's chances. However, dropping 3 lbs for his last run might be more of a curse than a blessing if he misses the cut (currently 41st in the weights). His rating of 137 would have made it to the start line for the last 2 runnings, but not in 2015. Might be a close call.

Evening MW

I just wonder if he is a handicapper ?

If they followed the same pattern as last year,xmas time/new year might be the plan,giving him more time to strengthen up before really testing the water.

With that in mind,no worries going right handed,see he has a King George entry.

Could a horse rated 125 12 months previously,have any right to contest the boxing day feature?

My guess would be to miss both BV and Henessey,see where they stand once they have him fully fit.

Kempton might not be the worst place to test him........just a thought.

They will surely want to win another handicap with him before going for a Championship race. If he needs more time than 13 days there is the option of going up in distance for the ladbroke at newbury or a £50,000  handicap over 2 and a half miles at the same meeting or he could wait for Aintree on the 8th december for the Grand Sefton. His form looks solid, he only does enough and he goes on any ground, obviously a big chance if he turns up but you cant be sure how he has come out of the race to back him ante post.

Wise words PMT

He,s just one of a few entered that interest me for the coming season.

As it stands now your lad looks perfect on 10-07,take out the top two,the weights will look very different.Both of those top two trainers have other entries much lower down,all part of the conundrum that precedes the race,not just for punters but connections alike.

Sure last weekends action will not have passed you by,hard to gauge just how forward some horses are,that looked another fine effort from RTR,another who might make plenty headlines as the season progresses.

Can someone shed any light on a possible connection between the Channon yard and Henrietta Knight ?

Did some of her horses go there......remember reading something a while back,beginning to annoy me as I can,t remember where I saw it......TIA

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2012/may/24/mick-channon-henrietta-knight-retires

....Always good for a quote is our boy Channon : "She's a lively chicken"

Many thanks MW..........Great quote indeed.

There is something about this horse jumping,and his profile.One line from above stands out.

"Knight,s patient,sympathetic handling of steeplechasers became a trademark"

I'm not sure that running 13 days after Carlisle would be considered patient!

It looks (according to the RP) that Mister Whitaker is going to take his chance in the BetVictor, so he must have come out of Carlisle in good shape.

That's the green light for a small bet for me.

I've also had a few quid on here & elsewhere on Crievehill at big prices. He's an improver trained by a man who knows how to win this and the form of his last race is stacking-up well.

0.5pt Mister Whitaker @ 8/1
0.25pt /Crievehill @ 40/1 +

Mister whitaker+ baron alco for me

i like benatar ,his festival 3rd looks strong form ,  he needs no worse than good/soft though . i thought he gurgled in the festival at the second last so he might have a breathing issue . if he gets good ground he will be fine and i always like horses with fewer career starts , they have more potential to improve and he wouldnt have liked the ground in his prep lto , but , they put the run into him for a reason . mr whittaker next best and the munir duo coming in fto are sure to be high class , but , i think this is a experience for those two , although one might be good enough i dont think theyll be ridden to win this race as i think their looking to the future

I think Guitar Pete is overpriced @ 33/1.

Ballyandy for me at a stand out 25s with 365. Won the bumper and the Betfair hurdle and placed in the supreme (4th) so the likely frenetic pace won't be a problem. Just hope it jumps well enough to keep it in contention

Agreed Willie Ballyandy is the horse to beat imo. 25/1 is unbelievable value. Don't see any other horses in the field that have won at Cheltenham festival (conditions race), 4th at Cheltenham festival (conditions race) and won a Betfair Hurdle.

The other two massive positives are that it's trained by NTD who has been aiming the horse at this race since January (there is a quote somewhere by him back in January)and its only racing off 137 (yes 137).

25/1....WOW!

if this was a hurdle race ballyandy would be favourite off 137 but he has yet to jump round a chase course without making mistakes so the bookies are happy to take him on.If he was in a different stable they might have trained him for the Cesarewitch ! The first three in the betting have all run well over big course and distance 24 runner handicaps.

I expect Ballyandy to go off a 8/1 shot on Saturday

Chemical Nicholas will win this cosily, by half a length keeping the horses mark with a bit more in hand, then get him ready for the December Gold Cup.

some real dreaming going on on this thread i'd say...lets hope it pays off

market not closed on here but bet 365 have a non runner no bet market up with only 20 in the betting. are they declared then?? and if so why are they still betting on here. i'm a tad confused

ok they are declared so why are they still betting on here

get your money on Chemical Nicholas...make my day Harry

i think you are just making yourself silly pal, lump it on all you want, i won't be

i have green book on race anyway so not worried, just think the swing in the weights makes him obvious choice

i think him and the whittaker horse have plenty on from those marks

so you haven't lumped on sclotter or convinced by the horses you have backed, otherwise you wouldn't of arbed your position and come on here ramping your green position. horrible

i had a nice run this week, so managed to nick some lovely positions, plus some of those firms kindly gave me some free bets and bonus money so i will be smoking a cigar and having a large cognac at 2.20pm. Tell you what Harry, to show no hard feelings I will treat you a reverse forecast the two yaks and if they are one two, then I will pm you after race. Even my Mother is excited  about her Black Friday bounty coming :D

no hard feelings here, i just find posts like yours a waste of time, keep your forecast and treat your mother to something nice

Chemical Nicholas' is at least nine pound better off from the festival race for a head beating. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, I am nicely green on him, plus the others so I can now enjoy the race. Have a nice weekend! I will

putrid

Experience is everything son in this game, let me tell you that

chemical nicholas ? beaten a head in the festival race ? so i,m guessing that is mr whitaker as he was beaten a head by rather be .

nicely green ? you are stoned ?

i,m a little put off that mr whitakker ran just 13 days ago . it suggests tkh  that they cant get the horse to settle , hes not learnt to race properly yet is my reading of the situation

sorry chemical nicolas is "rather be "i got the placings muddled . a insinuation of the handler ? anyhow speak plainly

Money now starting to come for Ballyandy. Single figures by post time is my prediction.

yeah Carlisle is a tough track

ill be a smoking a cigar anyway as i have a lovely green book

regarding ballyandy who a few seem to like he seems to have lost all enthusiasm for the game , i can see why you  like him based on the past , but , the current suggests hes gone at the game , which is strong given his age and amount of runs , but , thats how it reads to me

off that weight imho he has place claims

my selection benatar and the other more fancied moore horse baron alco have both been ridden by jamie moore in nearly all of their runs . baron alco is 10-1 ish and benatar is 12-1 ish jamie has picked benatar

Nov 15, 2018 -- 8:55PM, gpz6316 wrote:

my selection benatar and the other more fancied moore horse baron alco have both been ridden by jamie moore in nearly all of their runs . baron alco is 10-1 ish and benatar is 12-1 ish jamie has picked benatar

Just looked at jockey bookings myself, whilst having the usual jockey on the respective horse would be a positive do you rate either of the brothers above one another?

give me Mr Mcgrath over the Moore boys anyday!

i,m a firm believer that the horse wins the race . their is a fly in the ointment in this race called "kalondra" my antenna says this has improved beyond recognition based on his unfashionable profile and short price at 7-1 . i will be backing this horse . and my original form horse benatar . best of luck

yeah i had a sneaky ew pony on him from yesterdays profits as a saver...best of luck to you too!!

Eamon An Cnoic is one I like at the weights . Ran well here behind Coo Star Sivola before he ran out of gas . He will be race fit .
Another that could surprise is Willie Boy .

I like the look of KING'S SOCK, he has a similar profile to the stables former festival winner Ballynagour in that he went into the Byrne plate seemingly well handicapped after (in differing ways) encouraging debut runs in this country after arriving from France. I'm hoping the similarity continues with the potential being realized at a later date as Ballynagour came back to win the plate the following year quite impressively and hopefully KS will run a big race on Saturday.

As we saw he was given an easy race on debut over here and went off strongly fancied at the festival, he travelled like the best horse through the race IMO but faltered up the hill, he then went to Aintree where he ran no race but dropped back to the minimum, on that track he was taken off of his feet from the off. I have to admit I'm a bit worried that he wants it softer with his action.

He's tongue tied for the first time and a fascinating horse that I "think" is probably on a good mark "if" he can put it all together.

Amazed that plenty on here like BALLYANDY.  The h’cap mark may appear generous but he cannot jump, even in a small field at Wetherby last time.
I like Guitar Pete ew myself.

think this mister whitaker is a lovely horse and should be followed until beaten. the fast pace should suit him down to the ground.

will have a saver on the hendo horse as well.

thought hendo's horses were not up to their usual level today...im green on the race so if nick anything it will be "pot shots" at them tomorrow

Baron Alco is in top form and will put on a show of front running. He often finds only a grade 1 horse to beat him so we are afraid of Mr Whitaker. On similar ground he was trying to give weight when beaten by only Road to Respect at the festival.

Good luck pmt were u annoyed Jamie jumped ship to Benatar?

It doesn't get much better than that, what a thrill. nothing better than one of your favourites winning.

Congrats pmt.

Well done PMT. Got me out of jail!

Well done PMT, a fantastic run from Baron Alco. I've never known a Mackeson like it - carnage, out front was certainly the place to be.

anyone know why benatar didnt run ? jamies original pick . well done pmt on your selection hope you had a good win .

Benatar had a blood problem.
Gutted to see Frodon run so well when I was on at 26 but that must make him a contender for the Ryanair-and he is not even in the AP market!

Congrats pmt nice to see an owner be as open and honest as you have been on this thread.

Well done pmt, smashing horse.

sageform ask betfair to add him, he certainly has a chance in the ryanair.

Yes well done to connections of the winner but for me Frodon ran a mighty race again and for the life of me I can't understand why he was not at least a joint favourite for the race. RPR put the first 2 joint top and with Bryony losing her allowance since his Aintree win, they had the result spot on. RPR give him 170 for today which looks a bit high but those 2 did beat the rest a long way.

IS, the odd thing is that Frodon is in the GC market which seems as likely to happen as Vince Cable being the next Prime Minister.

thanks everyone, just got back from the celebrations. the owner and i have had horses together for 29 years. Crow Wood Kings Quay leslingtaylor, Recession proof and others.this was our biggest ever win and our first at Cheltenham.

I love the offspring of Dom Alco, the mighty Al Ferof was also by him. If you have watched the replay on on RUK their is a brilliant image on the far side where your horse has the sun shining through his tail and mane, it would make a brilliant picture if that was possible.

You have a serious horse on your hands pmt.

Recession Proof was a classy horse too, you lucky man.

Sep 18, 2018 -- 9:45AM, pmt wrote:

Baron Alco is a likely runner in this after a year off with a tendon injury.He led for the last mile and a half in the 2017 Brown and Merry at the festival before beaten only

Baron Alco jumped at speed, like a stag. Well done to all connections with this horse. The RYANAIR at the Festival is the obvious long range target, the horse is proven to love the track and trip, and the top of that race market is full of horses unlikely to run, and has plenty of room for an improver like this horse to be one of the favs for the race, as the race draws nearer.

my advice is ;dont back him for the Ryanair. he is more likely to be aimed at the Topham.

I wouldn't back him for the Ryanair, the one to back there is Frodon. Baron Alco was in receipt of 15lb for a 2 length victory, which would put Frodon about 13lbs ahead off level weights. I am sure Baron Alco can improve too, but that's a big turnaround against a horse that is 25/1 in a place for the Ryanair

I can't see any other race at the Festival for Frodon, they either swerve or go for the Ryanair, I don't think there's much room with his handicap mark (given he will go up a few more pounds after Saturday) to race in anything else. I will have a few quid at 25/1

i dont know whom pmt is . clearly connected to the winner and others on the site seem to know him well . great to have your comments and i wont blow smoke up your as s .

recovering from my hangover following a nice weekend....roll on next weekend!!

A little late to the party.

Very Impressive winner,ridden like a good horse,he answered every call.

Already stated a few pages back how good it was to hear PMT thoughts, well in advance of the race.Just where the horse goes and how he fares further down the line,will be intriguing.

Like to hear he is ok after that,he looked a different horse to the one we saw at Chepstow.

Top man PMT.....everything comes to those that wait.

Fine post The Bloob.....agree with all of that,some performance from the runner-up,given just a peach of a ride from BF.Another big step forward on those terms,no surprise if he,s put away for a spring campaign,not sure they have got to the bottom of him yet.

Not to be Saxon /Mystic.....both of those will benefit from slower ground. Mr Whitaker was not disgraced off that revised mark,hopeless task once they turned for home,still not convinced that was the right race for him,time will tell,lovely prospect.

Well done Brendrew / All winners.

thanks nocturnal, he ate up on saturday night and his legs were fine the next morning so its onwards and upwards for the Caspian Caviar back at Cheltenham in the December meeting. He has been raised 6lbs to 152  which i think is fair. he might be put away for a break after the Caspian race and wait for the 3 mile handicap(old Racing Post chase) at kempton end february. We are debating whether to run in the Topham at Aintree . He isn't considered to have the engine for the Ryanair and is a stone off that standard as yet.

Many, many thanks for your candour Pmt, I'd like to wish you and your horse great luck in the future.

Great news he has come out sound after the race.

Only caught a glimpse of the interview post race,pretty clear GM was a a little concerned re ground.

So much more to this sport beyond the betting angle,this lad is a fine example.

Thread a few pages back discussing Native River around xmas time last year,wondering just how much a decent break  can affect a horse,and how they respond.Something worth thinking about going forward,different stages of their careers,and yes different class,but could that injury to Baron Alco have been a blessing in disguise.

The daily rigours must take it out of some horses,lord knows how much goes into getting them fully fit,especially early on in their careers,he really does look like he,s flourished.

No comment on 152.......Souldancer will be on my case (WP by the way).

Heap of guesswork with that Topham shout,an interesting call for someone to make.

Goes without saying,just need him to stay sound,everything from here is a bonus.

GL

lol, Gary said in the interview that he wanted to pull Baron Alco out the night before but the owners talked him into running; that was true. The injury to Baron Alco was a suspensory but he had stem cell treatment to build it back up and we took the decision to give him the entire season off even though he was ready to run by last March. I think the extra 6 months was worthwhile to get him fully recovered.

Baron Alco being well handicapped rather than the break played the part. At Chepstow I thought he ran a bit free, didn't jump early on.
    I do think horses that have a couple of years off often keep improving later than the norm.