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woodmanchester
02 Sep 18 05:51
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 30,419 | Blogger: woodmanchester's blog
Could some kind soul tell me why he's 6/4 for the Irish Champion Stakes but as big as 11/4 for the Qipco equivalent when he's due to face the same horses, please?
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Report impossible123 September 2, 2018 9:30 PM BST
I think it could be that the ground at Ascot in October would be unlikely to be good or better. Also, possibly connections might think he's done enough this season (post Ireland) especially if he is to stay in training next. That's what some professional commentators have been alluding to.

But I think post a win in Ireland (ground permitting) his price for Ascot will shorten unless an announcement about his participation stating otherwise. I also think he'll be retired next season because he's extremely unlikely to stay in training as he's already proven the champion at 10f; no Arc target either as he's also unlikely to be tried over 12f ever again.
Report woodmanchester September 2, 2018 11:28 PM BST
Thanks. Much appreciated
Report impossible123 September 3, 2018 5:31 PM BST
Unless the ground is soft or worse a champion 10f horse not running in the Champion Stakes on British Champions Day does not bode well for the sport, I firmly believe. As such, I think he'll run (ground permitting) and all being well.
Report impossible123 September 17, 2018 9:51 AM BST
The market here does not bode well for his participation on Ascot Champions Day next month; the comments of his connections post Irish Champion Stakes win did not clarify situation either.
Report gpz6316 September 17, 2018 8:48 PM BST
i would take the horse to the bc turf and draw stumps personally . dont be righteous 123 its gonna be a slog at ascot not rl game bc is right up his street
Report impossible123 September 26, 2018 11:09 PM BST
I think Gosden said RL would run in The Champion Stakes at Ascot provided the ground is no worse than good to soft; he could also go to The Breeders Cup two weeks later.

But, I think if the ground at Ascot is good to firm (remotely possible) Cracksman might be absent (again).
Report impossible123 October 20, 2018 3:07 PM BST
I hope the jockey does not replicate the ride of Doyle on Sea Of Class in the Irish Oaks or The Arc.
Report impossible123 October 20, 2018 4:47 PM BST
Roaring Lion could go for the Breeders Cup Classic - he's being considered at the present moment; Enable is running in the Mile Turf.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 20, 2018 4:52 PM BST
Enable is running in the Mile Turf.

Never
Report Graeme83 October 20, 2018 7:34 PM BST
I think they will retire him now. Certainly no point going to the breeders cup.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 10:25 AM BST
Graeme83,

I agree.

The dirt surface in the classic (if that's the intended race) wouldn't be an issue, but he's had 8 races this season and the last couple will have taken their toll. Absolutely nothing more to prove.
Report harry callaghan October 21, 2018 12:08 PM BST
The dirt surface in the classic (if that's the intended race) wouldn't be an issue,

I totally disagree Andrew he is by a turf sire who does not have a great record on dirt so I don't think it is a good idea to take him to the classic
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 12:35 PM BST
Harry,

Roaring Lion has won on polytrack, the sire Kittens Joy raced on dirt as 2 year old, and the dams sire was a predominately raced dirt horse.

Both have sired dirt race winners.

I'm not suggesting he will go for the Breeders Classic, that was posted by impossible123, but i wouldn't see an issue with a dirt suface anyway.
Report harry callaghan October 21, 2018 8:47 PM BST
sorry for late reply andrew

i have to say i don't like these top class 1m2f turf horses going over for the classic with turf pedigrees andrew, a polytrack maiden win does not fill me with any confidence he will handle or even be conditioned for a top class dirt event, never mind the classic.

Kittens joy is now a renowned top class sire for turf horses, i'm not even sure he has even produced a stakes winner on dirt, i doubt he even covers mares with dirt pedigrees tbh, his mother vionette is by street sense out of a mare by avenue of stars, who was a decent producer of turf horses, vionette and her dam both raced on turf and were stakes placed but never raced on dirt

so for me roaring lion is not bred for dirt and think it will be the wrong decision to take him to the classic and i'd doubt very much he will handle the surface
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 8:50 PM BST
Harry,

I also doubt he will go for the classic and i read in the RP earlier there's even a possibility he could go for the turf against Enable, another poor decision.

Retiring the horse on a high is without question the best option.
Report harry callaghan October 21, 2018 9:05 PM BST
i agree andrew retiring is the best option, i just cannot have him on the surface myself

however i also see why they want to have a stab at the classic because if he does pull off the miracle he is worth a fortune at stud, what i would say just to add a little spice to the argument, these are a seriously poor crop of american dirt horses this season, there is not a superstar among them imo
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 21, 2018 9:14 PM BST
I don't know why any racing fan would like to see him retire rather than take on Enable in the Turf. If he was to go there it would add great interest to the race, but unfortunately I don't see it happening.
Report harry callaghan October 21, 2018 9:21 PM BST
i hope he doesn't take up a turf engagement jack, enable running has already killed a rank outsider i've bet, both running and i might be completely out the money
Report impossible123 October 21, 2018 9:33 PM BST
He's won everything to win over 10f, and he does not stay 12f in Gp1 so no chance of him taking on Enable over that distance. Similarly, no chance of Enable taking him on over 10f on good ground either. As such, I think retirement is prudent.

Could Saxon Warrior have won the QEII but for being injured? Bet you he'd have done for sure.
Report Jack Bauer '24' October 21, 2018 9:41 PM BST
I think he would stay 12 furlongs over there as it's a much easier test than 12 furlongs around Epsom at Derby pace. Whether he would stay well enough to get past Enable is another matter though, but it would make for an interesting race.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 9:45 PM BST
Sorry Guys, it was the SL not RP with the Breeders Turf article .....

A crack at the Breeders' Cup would be a "shot to nothing" for Roaring Lion, according to his connections.

The John Gosden-trained three-year-old won his fourth straight Group One on Champions Day, over a trip short of his best on ground that was not ideal in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

While he is by an American sire in Kitten's Joy, he was a turf horse and with the 10-furlong Breeders' Cup Classic run on dirt, there is a small possibility Roaring Lion could step up in trip and take on Enable in the Turf.

He is 7/1 (non-runner/no bet and four places) for the Classic with Sky Bet and 11/4 with the same concessions for the Turf.

"Sheikh Fahad is very keen to go to the Breeders' Cup. He believes this horse is very much the best mile-and-a-quarter horse in the world and he can overcome all of the difficulties that would go with running a horse on dirt for the first time," the owner's racing manager David Redvers told Racing UK's Luck On Sunday.

"He may well be right, but he has been on the go since February. I haven't spoken to anybody from Mr Gosden's yard this morning, or John himself, to find out how he has come out of the race.

"He had a tough race yesterday because he was running on ground he's not made to run in. If he can do what he's done all season and bounce back, he may well take his chance."

He went on: "He is in the Turf as well. There's great chat in the press about John Gosden being quite brilliant at keeping his horses apart and that this was was another example yesterday, but I don't believe that for a second.

"If the decision was taken to take on Enable then we would be delighted to do so, but I think the main point about the Breeders' Cup debate is that it is a shot to nothing.

"If the horse is in really good fettle, if he's bouncing like he's done all season then he may well go, but that decision will be made as late as possible by John Gosden and Sheikh Fahad and I'm going to stay right out of it."
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 9:46 PM BST
I would be a massive layer at 11/4 in the turf if Enable was running !
Report harry callaghan October 21, 2018 9:59 PM BST
why is that andrew? the lay that is?
Report impossible123 October 21, 2018 10:07 PM BST
Sheikh Fahd intimated Breeders Cup Classic (dirt); Enable is in the Cup Mile (turf). I think it's best to just call it a day with him now as he's been on the go since March, I believe.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 10:20 PM BST
Harry,

Roaring Lion has been on the go since April and the BC turf will be his 8th race (if he runs) over a distance that's clearly not his best.

He's had several hard races, in particular the last two and would be meeting a fresh Enable, one of the best middle distance fillies ever.

As if that wasn't enough there could be other French 3 year olds, Waldgeist and Taslismanic (who won it last year) as well as the USA 4 year old Channel Maker to name a few.

It's also not a race that a 3 year old European colt has won so often, although that's only a statistic of course.

To be honest 11/4 is a poor price.
Report Andrew in Sweden October 21, 2018 10:23 PM BST
The above doesn't read correctly

5 year old Talismanic
Report harry callaghan October 21, 2018 10:34 PM BST
fair enough andrew can't say i buy the 1m4f thing with the horse as didn't feel the derby confirmed his true running at the distance, for me he didn't handle the track and just wouldn't change leads for the rider making almost impossible for him in fact

anyway like i say i hope he doesn't run but wouldn't be a layer if he did, as he appears to be thriving with racing and is tough horse, if he did run she will have to back to her best in my book anyway, lets just hope they pull the plug on the horse as i don't want him in the turf myself
Report impossible123 October 30, 2018 3:17 PM GMT
Deluge expecting tonight. If so, game over...might he run though?
Report RozelKid October 30, 2018 3:44 PM GMT
The Dirt track drains very quickly - it can change from sloppy to fast in the space of a few hours.
Report gpz6316 October 31, 2018 8:47 PM GMT
i think he just runs here to placate the owners , as gosden says the yanks break so quick , hes gonna be seeing a lot of dirt from 2 . if he had intention to win imo hed put a visor on him to protect him from the kickback and to get him to jump faster . the fact he hasnt says hes gonna get a facefull o ship and be dropped out
Report impossible123 October 31, 2018 9:46 PM GMT
I think if the ground is soggy he could be withdrawn on account of his atrocious draw, and hard season.
Report RozelKid November 1, 2018 5:39 AM GMT
I'm 99% sure the dirt track will be riding fast on the Saturday
Report impossible123 November 1, 2018 11:57 AM GMT
Gosden: "...warning that a repeat of the deluge that marred Kentucky Derby day would give him and the QEII victor's Qatar Racing owners a cause to reconsider."
Report EastLower Gooner November 1, 2018 4:51 PM GMT
well...you got to be in it to win it so good luck to them. Can’t say he doesn’t deserve to be here. At least it’s far better than when they ran Planteur.

But he has zero chance based on pedigree.
Report gpz6316 November 6, 2018 10:18 PM GMT
i think this horse will be a star at stud . i keep saying it , if you got the wanda this is the horse to invest in
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