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deepingfox
27 Aug 18 20:04
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Date Joined: 10 Jun 01
| Topic/replies: 723 | Blogger: deepingfox's blog
The initial entries came out last Wednesday, and now after the focus on the Ebor Festival at York, the bookmakers have all priced up The Cambridgeshire yesterday, and The Cesarewitch today.

I love an Ante Post bet on these two races, they have massive fields, and represent a great opportunity to try and spot some early value, in the prices, with your own views on whether the horses will be targeted at the races.

I have had an initial run through videos, and form, and have had two bets in each race, and willcross double them up as well.

My selections at the initial decs, and opening prices are all currently 20/1 or 25/1, so one winner of either race produces a large profit.

Cambridgeshire
Danceteria (D Munisier) 25/1 best price (365)
3 wins at Newmarket, improving rapidly as a 3yo, has Ben rated at 103 which should get him into the race, even with the 3yo allowance, and his last race was his most impressive.

PIVOINE (A Balding) 20/1 best price (generally)
Looked a very impressive winner at York, was an expensive purchase by King Power Racing at the end of last year, from Stoute's stable, and has shown sufficient form to win a good 1M+ handicap, and last weekend he cruised through the race at York over 10F and won easily, with a rating hike of 6lb, it will ensure his place in the race, if connections choose it, it would cover his purchase costs if he won!

Cesarewitch
JUST IN TIME (A King) 25/1 best price (generally)
Won the last race at Goodwood on Saturday, on the rifle, then easing clear, in fine style.
Will get a weight hike, which was probably the plan, and may be on the same weight or a pound or two more than Withold carried at the foot of the weights last year.
I'm interested that Alan King has kept him on the flat at 2 through to 4, despite a lot of wins,a HD good form for the last season and this one.
I'm hoping it's because he plans a run in this race, for a massive pot.

VIS A VIS (N Mullholland) best price 25/1 (generally).
A really interesting profile, running a few times in France, last year, prior to the switch to England.
An inexpensive purchase from Juddmonte, bred to stay, and be decent, and I would direct you to the video of his first run in England, at Sandown, a last to first winner, late on, a wonderful performance. A 9 month break before the win, and the horse seems to have thrived.
Next time out he took on JUST IN TIME, and led all the way, a complete reverse, of his first running style, and he had plenty in the tank to ward off JUST IN TIME, who came from too far back, (through the rest of the field) to impact on this horse.
Rated 87, in a normal year that would get in the massive 30+ runner field, but the increased prize money will change the shape of these races next year.
He may therefore, need to reappear before the race.

These all look very good candidates, for the race, and I'm happy with the prices.

It would be great to hear from other forum it's, on their own selections, for the races, and any words of wisdom that go with them.
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Report deepingfox August 28, 2018 3:17 PM BST
Update.

DANCETERIA has been backed in from the initial 33/1 (PP/BFr) through 25's , 20's down to 16/1 and 14/1 generally.

PIVOINE has been raised 8lb to 106, which gets him a run, easily,probably in the top 10 in the weights, and may mean Jason Watson would need to keep the ride, and take 3lb off, to maximise his chances.

JUST IN TIME is up 10lb for the Goodwood win, on Saturday, which nicely gets him in the Ces, on 94 rating.
This should get a weight probably under 9st.

This is turn gives VIS A VIS 6lb in hand on Just In Time for their meeting and the winning 2&3/4lb advantage too.
Report deepingfox August 28, 2018 7:56 PM BST
Ive looked at the form of KYNREN,can't his light 3lb rise for a head bobbing defeat at York, and consider him a perfect colt for 9F, with an improving profile.
Rated 100, l9ving a big field battle, travels well, I've had a 3rd and final date at the Cambridgeshire, at 20/1 before the price shortens (been clipped today in several books).
Report deepingfox August 28, 2018 8:06 PM BST
God I need spellcheck to kick in!
Report SOULDANCER September 1, 2018 10:36 AM BST
Cesarewitch.

Bit early for this race considering last year winner Withold didn't make seasonal appearance till 23rd Sept.
   He fell in weight, 8-2 to 8-8, and OR, 84 to 87 narrow ratings that have done so well in recent years, also ridden by De Sousa who's made this race his own.

Ebor has shown big stables, rich owners take an added interest when prize money is increased so you couldn't rule them out wherever they are in handicap.

Have a way too long shortlist at moment. Looking at Magellan, Charlton won it last year, would be around 8-8lbs,only run up to 1m 4f, but no idea if bred for this.
Report SOULDANCER September 4, 2018 6:14 PM BST
Cambridgeshire.

URBAN ASPECT 14-1 e.w. 1st 5

4 runs each time looking like he'd improve. Won the last 3, including in strong h'cap last time. Up 11lb for that but with this extra furlong and track looking to suit must have big chance.
Report deepingfox September 4, 2018 7:48 PM BST
Soul,

MAGELLAN is running over 12F again on Thursday, so a chance to assess his progress, and his handicap mark post-race.
Report SOULDANCER September 5, 2018 7:09 AM BST
Cheers Deep,

Strange he's not being upped in trip.
Report deepingfox September 5, 2018 12:56 PM BST
Maybe, as its Charlton's, he doesn't want the longer trip test until the big-payday. He ran Withhold over 12F for a prep last year.  He is rated 91 already, so if he really would improve for a trip, then he wouldn't want to show that in a prep, and get a potentially larger handicap rise, if he won well.
Report SOULDANCER September 5, 2018 2:04 PM BST
The difference to Withhold was he'd already proved he stayed a longer trip.

Ian Balding stable tour in Weekender today, talked about group races for URBAN ASPECT although no target decided yet. That's worrying, suppose the clever move would be to cash out my Cambridgeshire bet for a small loss but can't be doing clever. That's not me.
   Balding was complimentary about Pivoine and Cambridgeshire seems the plan.
Report SOULDANCER September 5, 2018 2:06 PM BST
Difference with Withhold not difference to.
Report deepingfox September 5, 2018 4:42 PM BST
Agreed on Witthold, his prep was a pipe opener, over a trip too short.  Magellan, maybe more of a 2019 Ebor type on breeding, but they've entered him for the Ces, so there must be a thought about 2m2f.

Pricewise does his Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch ante post selection on Thursday and Friday, so if anyone fancies a punt before that, (in case he tips your choices, and wrecks the prices), get on before 8pm tonight for Cambs and 8pm tomorrow for the Ces.

I believe he likes Gosdens 3yo's for the Cambridgeshire, and has mentioned Style Hunter, whether the 14/1 is a big enough price for him to tip the horse, will be interesting.

I am on all of my selections already, so his columns can't take affect what I've got,
Report morpteh mackem September 5, 2018 7:16 PM BST
magellan at moment runs in 3.35 haydock on saturday
Report deepingfox September 5, 2018 8:25 PM BST
Blue on Oddschecker for KYNREN may dignify Pricewise may have chosen him for the Cambridgeshire. One piece of 20s left.
Report deepingfox September 5, 2018 9:38 PM BST
Oddschecker Blue for ALFARRIS now, in the Cambridgeshire. KYNRENs now 16s or lower, but ALFARRIS is still 20s in a couple of places, but may not last long. He has strong form ties with PIVOINE, beating him twice, then 2nd to him at York, with a bit of a weight pull for the Newmarket race.
Report unclepuncle September 5, 2018 9:57 PM BST
I'll give Afaak another chance at 28/1 on here - just pipped in the Silver Cambridgeshire last year so C&D no issue (has also won on soft and good to firm so ground shouldn't matter), and he has been running well in all the top 1m/1m2f handicaps at the big meetings this summer.

The other one I looked at was Via Via but I'd expect to be able to get a much better price on the day than the current 25/1 if he does run.

I have no interest in the Cesarewitch.Sad
Report SOULDANCER September 7, 2018 1:36 PM BST
Cesarewitch

VIS A VIS, 20-1 e.w. 1st 5.

DEEP, I'm going for this one as well, as you pointed out his last two runs were good ones.

Popped in betting shop today to read trainer comments for race. Mulholland gave three reasons why Vis A Vis would improve from last time, that sounds like a lot of improvement. Grass, trip and something else, God this brain. OR 90 weight 8-7 puts him in a lovely place in the h'cap...hope for the best.
Report deepingfox September 7, 2018 5:41 PM BST
Soul, the more I looked at the VIS A VIS/JUST IN TIME form and videos, the more it stood out as a softly-softly route to the Ces.
Vis A Vis has the nod at the weights, on their all-weather form, and looked a big strong traveller, and he has loads of French race experience.
Juddmonte breeding Dansili out of family of Doncaster Cup, Epsom Oaks, and Coral Eclipse winners.

I'm hoping it's a brilliant bit of Mullholland planning, to bring this French horse over and get him weighted at around a stone under top weight in the Ces.

He is my strongest choice of all 5 Cambs/Ces picks.

Let's hope he get there in good heart, and isn't drawn too wide, so he can get a nice place in the first 7 or 8, in the early part of the race. He travels well, and doesn't pull, and has won from a prominent position and from the back.
Report unclepuncle September 7, 2018 6:42 PM BST
As I have no idea on the Ces I have taken the advice above and backed Vis A Vis singly and doubled with Afaak at 25/1.
Report SOULDANCER September 8, 2018 5:45 AM BST
Only seen this new rule for Cesarewitch yesterday.

All runners must have run at least twice on the flat since April in a race at 1m 4f or further.
  Withold would have been ineligible for last years race.
Less likely something can come out from the clouds and land a gamble now.
Report deepingfox September 8, 2018 10:34 AM BST
It seems Willie Mullins has got a couple of runs into his battalions, to qualify, mostly through Galway, and some at Ascot.

It does allow the handicapper a better view of current form and rating, particularly when assessing the Irish for this race.
Report unclepuncle September 9, 2018 7:58 PM BST
Urban Aspect sold to Hong Kong so won’t be running in the Cambridgeshire.
Report SOULDANCER September 10, 2018 10:50 AM BST
There's a bugger, couldn't forsee that, my luck as deserted me. Could have been worse, could have been one of my Ayr Gold Cup horses.
Report woodmanchester September 14, 2018 11:43 AM BST
Picked a couple in each, singles and 4 doubles

Cambridgeshire
14/1 Stylehunter
16/1 Seniority

Cesarewitch
8/1 Stratum
25/1 Here And Now

Best odds coupled seem to be with 188Bet
Report unclepuncle September 14, 2018 3:15 PM BST
Nice boost for Vis A Vis with Just In Time winning The Mallard.Cool
Report SOULDANCER September 14, 2018 4:28 PM BST
Well done Deep.

You must have been on today.
Report deepingfox September 14, 2018 6:40 PM BST
Soul, it's all going well so far.

Update on the 5 selections - Kynren was added early on, to the original 4, 24 hours later, after assessing the weight rises from the Ebor meeting.

Cambridgeshire
DANCETERIA now 16/1 from 25/1 - trainer likes him a lot, and speaks well of him compared to his Thundering Blue.
Danceteria runs in Ireland in a Premier Handicap on Sunday, Fav at odds of 9/2, horse has had a break, and trainer has spoken of taking in both races - fingers crossed for Sunday.


PIVOINE still 20/1, and no news update since York. The stables Urban Aspect (also a winner at York) was Fav for this race, but has been sold to run overseas, which may make it more likely that the stable and sporting owners (King Power) will run the horse at Newmarket if he is fit and well.

KYNREN  backed into 12/1 from 20/1, following Pricewise Ante Post tip, and a modest 3lb rise for his Ebor meeting run. Runs well in all the big meetings and a live chance to do the same at Newmarket.

Cesarewitch
I've been surprised that the bookies haven't had more money for the strand of form that linked my two Ces selections, until today.
They seem too wrapped up in pricing all the Mullins and AOB horse at the top of the market, and quite a few of these probably won't run, which has probably muddied the waters for punters looking at the race.

JUST IN TIME now into 16/1 and 14/1 across major bookies from 25/1 after big handicap win at Donny today.
Owner confirmed in the euphoria of the big race win today, that he backed the horse for the Ces at 25/1 this morning, and he defo heads for the race.
He travelled well, and at 16/1 he is still a good price for the race.
Alan King doesn't normally keep his horses from jumping, unless they are decent, and Just In Time proved today why at the end of his 4yo career, why he is running on the flat.

VIS A VIS 20/1 and 16/1 generally (from 25/1) for this Neil Mullholland runner. His stable is bang in form on the flat, and while Just In Time has run twice since being beaten by Vis A Vis, and gone past him in the weights, this horse has been left (hopefully) with a very promising mark to go straight to the Ces.
He has always been my "best bet" of the 5 selections, and today's Mallard Hcap win for Just In Time, makes me think even more that the 20/1 for this horse for the Ces, is really good value.

Best of luck everyone, my fingers are crossed for Danceteria to run well on Sunday, and be declared, post race, to be still on course for the Cambridgeshire.











.
Report deepingfox September 17, 2018 2:16 PM BST
DANCETERIA missed the break, off top weight, in the 10F Premier Handicap on the Irish St Leger card yesterday.
Fran Berry had to put him in at the back on the rail of a 19-runner event, to ensure he didn't run too wide on the bend.

That mean he ended up coming about 7 or 8 wide in the finishing straight to get out, and he finished very well, on the hells of the placed horses, in 5th.

RPR of 110 is 4pts higher than his last run, and that's having a very poor run of the race. Racing Post report him to still be improving.

Bookies left him unchanged for the Cambridgeshire at between 12/1 and 16/1.
For me it was an extremely pleasing prep run, and on the Newmarket straight 9F he shouldn't get such a bad run. Fingers crossed he came back fit and well.
Report deepingfox September 20, 2018 7:26 PM BST
STYLEHUNTER & PIVOINE at front of Cambridgeshire market, are running in the Dubai Duty Free at Newbury on Sat, for half of the pot that the Cambridgeshire is. Not sure what that means for running at Nwmkt 7 days later, but it's probably going to be tricky to run in both and perform well enough to win the 2nd race 7 days later.
Report SOULDANCER September 20, 2018 10:47 PM BST
Cambridgeshire

Very Talented 20-1 e.w, 1st 5.

Comfortable win at Chelmsford tonight after 726 days off. Was 3rd in this race 2016 when he was drawn on wrong side.
Report barnesey September 21, 2018 10:33 AM BST
Agree with Very Talented thought it was an excellent reappearance and looked as if he could run to 110 the way he routed them........ managed to snare some 33’s before 375 went 20’s and if he avoids the dreaded ‘bounce’ think he will go very close
Report deepingfox September 21, 2018 8:45 PM BST
I remember thinking that Very Talented would win 2 years ago, he looked good this week. If some of the favs aren't declared he could easily go into 1st or 2nd fav.
Report deepingfox September 21, 2018 8:47 PM BST
I fear PIVOINE won't line up at HQ, and so I've backed him at 9/1 to win tomorrow in a field less than half the size of the Cambridgeshire line up. (Before R4 deduction).
Report deepingfox September 22, 2018 12:47 PM BST
PIVOINE & STYLEHUNTER are NRs at Newbury, today, so more potential now that they may come to Newmarket next week.
Report unclepuncle September 22, 2018 7:43 PM BST
Some rain on Sunday but then dry and sunny all week so should be no issues with the ground - doesn't make it any easier though.Laugh
Report deepingfox September 24, 2018 5:49 PM BST
Weather set to be fair all week, so Ground could be GOOD.
5-Day Decs out for Saturday's Cambridgeshire today, all the market leaders stand their ground, so all good for Ante Post bets until Thursday's final decs for the race.
Report SOULDANCER September 25, 2018 2:49 PM BST
Deep, was gonna join you with Danceteria today at 14's but by time I got home was best price 12's, only 10's with accounts I have. Might have win bet day of race market but I can see this starting fav especially if Gary Nutting tips it tomorrow.
  Does look classy and an improver, think you're sitting pretty here.
Report deepingfox September 25, 2018 7:11 PM BST
Soul,

Here's hoping re Danceteria. He was my original fav choice for the race, and the biggest odds of the 3 I selected, so the best result for me personally.

I also note Kynren's price collapsed to 8s or 9s, must be a tip somewhere today, that drove it down from 12s yesterday.
Report Autocue September 25, 2018 7:33 PM BST
UAE Prince and Stars Over The Sea.
Report unclepuncle September 27, 2018 8:51 PM BST
Looks like there may be a golden highway right up the stands rail so high drawn prominent runners may have the edge.
Report deepingfox September 27, 2018 9:00 PM BST
All the market leaders stand their ground, which makes it (imo) the deepest field of quality market leaders in memory - maybe a sign of things to come, if the big handicaps get big prize money increases.
I'm relieved that all 3 of mine have made it through the last month, DANCETERIA, PIVOINE, and KYNREN, two have shrunk to half the price and PIVOINE hovers just a little lower than a month ago.
Happy with them still, nothing else would tempt a late change, let the battle commence.

I'm Autumn Doubled with these 3, and the 2 selected in the Cesarewitch (6 bets in total), and I have fingers crossed that Saturday's winner comes from the 3 chosen, and I have a live long odds bet for small stakes going on to JUST IN TIME (@ 25/1) and VIS A VIS (@25/1) in the Ces in 2 weeks time.

Good look all.
Report unclepuncle September 27, 2018 11:57 PM BST
With Afaak drawn low I have added Stylehunter @18 and Via Via @65.
Report SOULDANCER September 29, 2018 5:45 AM BST
Already lost on Urban Aspect e.w. and e.w. double.

Very Talented 20-1 and Vis A Vis 25-1. both e.w. 1st 5

Danceteria 12-1 and Vis A Vis 22-1. e.w. 1st 7 and 5 respectively. Needed price boost for those.
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