Too Darn Hot Epsom Derby

Certainly a nice introduction, and obviously beautifully bred, but being ultra picky I wasn’t overly keen on it’s head carriage.

I don't really care about head carriages but I would leave it alone for the guineas- I see it's quoted quite short for that as well- for me the horse looked all about staying.

I'm very rarely this confident so early about a horse potentially winning a classic. my only concern is that it's half siblings both got injured before their potential runs in the oaks.

Lewisham, your right, it was a fetching performance, pulling away smartly around 2F out, to emphasise the stamina in the pedigree.
Looks Epsom, rather than Newmarket on the ante-post classics front, and Gosden has more than one early player already for the 2000Gns,

King  of Comedy looks a quality 7F 2yo, with potential to take in the Champagne at Donny and hopefully then the Dewhurst.

ttt in anticipation of a perf today

nice debut from the horse, however in a race that didn't stack up pre race to me i have a feeling although impressive, it probably was not a great race...i think he is very short today and the ramp wheel is already completely out of hand on what he has achieved in a moderate novice race, anyway lets hope he can come forward and we learn a lot more today

2019 derby winner

I thought he was workmanlike , much like Kingman when he won his Solario . I certainly would not rule him out of the Guineas .

There is no point leaving the Dewhurst or Observer at Sandown .

Good winner, so much potencial, obviously got gears, the second improving is questionable and thus perhaps overated on this occasion? 114+ is probably about right but this race in isolation?

huge price imo

Will be interesting today if Too Darn Hot can improve on his Solario form. Up to now I have his form seeing him thereabouts in an average Derby, but around 10lbs short of typical Guineas winning standard. Today I've got him 10lbs ahead of runners that don't obviously look capable of making the necessary improvement to beat him so if he runs to form he should win comfortably. He could beat these comfortably by 3 lengths and shorten further for the Guineas but for me he's going to need to do much more than that to fancy him for a Guineas.

another impressive display

Top quality miler but not a Derby winner.

I ought to have said thereabouts in an average Derby assuming he stays. What we might have here is a horse without the stamina for a Derby but not fast enough to win a Guineas. As all he did was what was expected and I still didn't see enough.

Hard man to please Figgis.

others might say grouch

A 1 3/4 length of Phoenix Of Spain? Ok you could say that horse may have improved. But Cardini only 2.5 behind that one? What really nails it for me though is the time comparison. It was pointed out that it equalled the earlier Gp2 but that was a very weak Gp2 resulting in a bunched finish and the winner carried 4lbs more. This despite the Champagne being run at a proper pace. He's 3/1 but I wouldn't price him in single figures on what I've seen so far. The Derby would be a different matter but there is the stamina issue.

I think he looks a 10 furlong horse next year. Probably won't be quick enough to win a Guineas and likely to be outstayed in a Derby.

and anyway, is there any reason why my ORIGINAL thread isn't enough to discuss this horse's chances in the derby?

oops wrong thread.

hoping for another win this weekend

With Gosden having reservation about him being a Derby horse the present market seems to be clueless too - 12/1 the field. Hopefully, come the end of the month post The Dewhurst and Vertem Futurity trials the water will be a lot clearer.

gosden is often reticent. contrast that with freddie head who suggested his two year last sunday was the best he had ever trained.

gosden would never make such a bullish statement.

obviously the derby picture is very unclear but I don't think backing something now is such a bad option. masar was one of the top two year olds last year and it wouldn't need a crystal ball to have picked him out.

Too Darn Hot over-hyped and over-rated, imo

If that wins the Derby, im a monkey's uncle!

didn't win the dewhurst like a guineas winner.

screams derby horse for me.

Looks 10 furlong horse to me. Next year's Roaring Lion.

In light of the Dewhurst I have to completely jump ship and say if he is going to win a classic I now think it's more likely the Guineas.

I'm surprised that people don't see it. to me he outstayed them today. his extra turbo gear that they talk about is an excess of stamina.

he will be vulnerable in the guineas, no doubt about it. maybe he'll even win it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him come a running on third or forth, doesn't blot his copybook then it's all guns blazing for the big one.

it's also worth pointing out that gosden has won the derby several times and never won the guineas. (and yes, I know all the arguments about how kingman could have won the race.)

if you watch a replay of the race, for me he was in trouble at some point, but then kept rolling and clawed them back.

that's not the way a classic miler ala churchill would have won the race. the further they went the better he looked.

LR, I understand your point, and the way he was being talked of afterwards was as if we'd seen some Zafonic type performance which obviously wasn't the case. I'd still be surprised if he proves to be an outstanding miler but for me he ran fast enough today to go very close in, or even win, an average Guineas.

If he stays 12 furlongs he's certainly going to be the horse to beat at Epsom but we won't find out if he stays until next June after the race.

I think The 2000G would be a walk-in-the-park, all being well, more so if ground is a touch easier than today; The Derby over 12f I do have my doubts though. I'm sure post The 2000G one of the Derby trials (not Lingfield) over 10f will be definitive concerning his Derby participation, I think.

He's very unlikely to run in a trial if he wins the Guineas. He will either go straight to Epsom or stay at a mile for the Curragh or Ascot in my view. If he is beaten in the Guineas then they may well take the Roaring Lion route and go to York for the Dante.

If so, then he'd not be Epsom bound given the comments of his trainer, but I think he'd, and a trial a probability if connections have aspiration of a Derby triumph.

I do not subscribe to the RP but RP has him on a par with Frankel. Are they for real? Can it be justified? I understand he was visually impressive today but the 2nd and 3rd were beaten horses in their previous race.

he's not on a par with frankel, agreed.

he's better than frankel

I don't know what they've actually said as I don't subscribe either, but it's ridiculous hype as far as I'm concerned. A lot of people on here and elsewhere had already earmarked Frankel as something a bit special (better than just a typical classic winner) just from his Doncaster win. Then again from his Royal Lodge win. The question was whether he'd train on. All TDH has done so far is show the form of a potential average classic winner. He might win the Guineas but I wouldn't even rate him as good as Dawn Approach yet.

If it's anything like time form ratings they may have Too Darn Hot's Dewhurst run on a par with Frankel's Dewhurst but well below Frankel's Royal Lodge performance. Frankel pulled very hard in the Dewhurst and was less impressive than in the Royal Lodge and ran to a lesser rating. He was very impressive and should win the guineas as long as he's forward enough next spring. He's not Frankel though.

I'd be surprised if he gets 12f?? TDH.
He looks a miler atm.
I think they will prob stick to that trip for the first part of next season, poss with a view to 10f (if they think he'll be fine) in the Juddmonte at York.
Let's see how he gets on in the 2000gns first tho? Provided he gets there :-)

I think TDH might break with tradition and take in a Derby trial after The 2000G, win or lose, if aspiration for Epsom is heightened as I believe connections will not do a "Ballydoyle" eg Saxon Warrior and Australia.

Since when has the 2000 Guineas not been a Derby trial.

2000gns is one of the best Derby trials.
Time will tell on TDH ?
But atm I don't view him as a Derby horse?

1-3 this weekend to kick off his three year old career. fingers crossed he has trained on.

out of the greenham heat in leg !

that might be a negative for the guineas, but positive for the derby. too many runs beforehand could bottom the horse.

He's 2/1 fav for the Irish version on 25th May; Epsom Derby is 1st June.

is it just me or is the family injury prone? I know both his half sisters missed their oaks day through injury. I suppose the blessing in disguise is that the injury has come now, so they have plenty of time to get him ready for targets later.

dante has been mooted, that will tell us a lot about his chances at Epsom. alternatively the irish 2000 guineas is an option, although I doubt that would teach us much about his chances of getting the trip.

I just wonder at the back of my mind if the horse is small, hasn't trained on and they are looking for excuses to retire him. although maybe that's my negative side taking over.

i think he will go dante next and then a decision regarding st james or derby

i think he will go dante next and then a decision regarding st james or derby

I think he'll go to the Irish 2000G given Gosden's doubt about his stamina citing So Mi Dar and Lah Ti Dar as examples. Then, St James's follow by the Eclipse and Juddemonte in Aug.

didn't lah ti dar finish second in a leger?

i think johnny g will wanna go irish guineas as i,m sure he sees tdh as a miler like i do and given heat in his leg and stamina issues it makes sense  . however , given lloydd webbers dont hold onto colts and hes missing our guineas surely the play is dante

I agree, TDH is more likely Irish 2000G bound given the thoughts of Gosden plus 2 weeks later than the Dante; 3/1 is a good price, I believe. Also, I hope the Webbers do not sell TDH to Sheikh Mo.

wtf i do not agree hes going irish , hes going dante

Sorry, TDH could forego a win in the Irish 2000G, and go Dante instead just like Roaring Lion. If stamina limitation is exposed there TDH could always revert back to 8f for the St James's, I guess; if not, Epsom beckons, I'dthink.

he has been pricewised, so best price 5-1

pretty reasonable price still I feel. next step Dante and hopefully I can get down there and cheer him on as not far from where I live.

well, it was fun while it lasted

just too small really. think if it had grown it would have won yesterday and they'd have been going to Epsom, stamina doubts or not.