Horse Antepost

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13 Jul 18 05:55
Date Joined: 28 Mar 03
| Topic/replies: 25,537 | Blogger: duffy's blog
Isn't she just. Who knows what she beat but visually you just had to be impressed by that performance, I rarely back this far out but forced myself to back her for the 1,000 guineas after that, the 33's disappeared as I was placing the bet but I was happy with the 20's even so. She had that wow factor today.
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Report unclepuncle July 13, 2018 10:31 AM BST
Definitely a nice one. Interesting that she was 12/1 stable 3rd sting on debut?
Report unclepuncle July 13, 2018 2:42 PM BST
Amazed they have made Pretty Pollyanna favourite for the Guineas - great ride from SDS.

The horse to take out of that race has to be Chaleur who is bred for further and was hopelessly positioned on the outside.
Report deepingfox July 13, 2018 10:39 PM BST
Absolutely stunning maiden win. Can't wait for the Moyglare and then possibly the Fillies Mile, to see just how good she may be.
Report duffy July 14, 2018 5:40 AM BST
Watching the replay again she's done plenty enough through the race but she also done plenty after she passes the post too.!!
Report Boxman July 14, 2018 8:15 PM BST
i don't think I have placed an ante post bet on a classic this century but I broke that rule and have backed Goddess 20/1 for the 1,000G next year.

Also a great name as well as hopefully a great horse for the future
Report jamesp July 15, 2018 3:30 PM BST
If Goddess is going to make an impression in next year's classics - and despite the lack of solid form to back up the visual impression of her maiden win (beat small field of newcomers, quickening off a slow early pace), one can't help but note Seamus Heffernan's positive post-race comments - then it will surely be in races like the Oaks or Irish Oaks. By Derby winner Camelot out of 10-12f performer Cherry Hinton (half-sister to Sea The Stars and Galileo), Goddess is a full sister to 10-12f performer Athena and closely related to 12f Ribblesdale and Irish Oaks winner Bracelet. She's bred for middle distances and I'll be surprised if she has enough pace next season to win races like the 1000 Guineas.
Report deepingfox July 16, 2018 7:44 PM BST
I think for assessing AOB it's more important to see where he runs or plans to run his horses at 2yo, rather than what their breeding is, as a lot are bred to stay further, but can make impact in classic mile races.

I spent many posts pushing for Saxon Warrior to be considered more for the 2000 Guineas, because of his speed, plus AOB loves to run his miler-mid-dist horses, in as many classics as possible to ensure he wins as many as possible.

This is even more pronounced for his fillies, he virtually always likes to run them in the 1000 Guineas, before any plan to run at Epsom.

Track where they run or are planned to run, and it's clear that there is a route for GODDESS to run in.a 7F Group 3 next, and then the 7F Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.

A quick, look at his runners in the Moyglare in the last 3 years shows

Happily - ran in 1000 Gns following year
Magical - ran in 8f Guineas trial in France, not seen since

Hydrangea - ran in 1000 Gns following year
Rhododendron - ran in 1000 Gns following year

Minding - 1st in Moyglare, 1st in 1000 Guineas following year
Ballydoyle - 2nd in Moyglare, 2nd in 1000'Guineas
Alice Springs - 3rd in Moyglare, 3rd in 1000 Guineas.

Therefore, on trainer background, if GODDESS turns up in the Moyglare, and performs well/places, then she is long odds on to run in Newmarkets 1000 Guineas, if she is fit and well the following May.
Report jamesp July 16, 2018 11:50 PM BST
But those other recent Moyglare runners were all much more speedily bred than Goddess, whose stamina profile is closer to last year's Moyglare third September (subsequently performed well over a mile as a juvenile but yet to race at three). Aidan O'Brien's recent 1000 Guineas winners (Homecoming Queen, Minding, Winter) and Irish 1000 Guineas winners (Halfway To Heaven, Misty For Me, Marvellous, Winter) have been much more speedily bred types. If she's going to be a top class filly (and let's not forget that she hasn't really proved anything yet on the track), then it's likely to be in races like the Fillies' Mile this season, followed by the top middle distance races next season (regardless of whether she runs in a Guineas beforehand).
Report jamesp July 16, 2018 11:58 PM BST
Also, Saxon Warrior is quite speedily bred on the dam's side (the dam Maybe, a daughter of the sprinter Sumora, was a top class 7f juvenile who failed to stay in the Oaks) and he was never going to be absolutely certain to stay 12f.
Report Jack Bauer '24' July 17, 2018 12:53 AM BST
I would be interested in having a few quid on for the Oaks at a big price but there doesn't seem to be a market available anywhere for some reason.
Report deepingfox July 21, 2018 7:22 PM BST
The reality will dawn for fans of "GODDESS for the GUINEAS" - like me - next Thursday in a 7F Group 3. Fingers crossed.

I'm always happy to back a Guineas candidate that has breeding to stay further rather than one whose bred to stay shorter, that connections try to stretch out (Saxon Warrior c/w US Navy Flag and Expert Eye).
Report jamesp July 22, 2018 12:48 PM BST
Aidan O'Brien has a very good record, as one would expect, in the Silver Flash Stakes: he has won six of the last ten renewals since it was elevated to Group 3 status. Most of his winners of this race - such as Happily (2017), Promise To Be True (2016), Wonderfully (2013) and Maybe (2011) - have been quite speedily bred fillies, but the race has also been won by some quite stoutly bred types (mostly from other yards). In the last ten years it has produced a number of fillies that have gone on to perform well in the 1000 Guineas (Happily, Alice Springs, Maybe and Together were all placed in the Guineas) and also an Oaks winner (Aidan O'Brien's Qualify, who was third in the Silver Flash in 2014). Goddess is bound to be a strong fancy and it will be interesting to see how she performs and how she progresses (and over what trip). The real test will be the Moyglare Stud Stakes and whether she has the speed to win against better class opposition over 7f in the middle of September. I suspect that there's a lot more to come from her stablemates Peach Tree and Hermosa (a full sister to Hydrangea and The United States, who made a highly promising debut behind Peach Tree at the Curragh).
Report deepingfox July 22, 2018 4:59 PM BST
Excellent point Jamesp. AOB creates a new playing field for top class horses, with the amount of times he may run them, their ability to sustain form over several quick top grade runs, the numbers he has with the breeding, form and rating that he can run in group races, and how often that the danger for one of his face is actually from his stables other runners. It's fascinating stuff, and so much better than horses avoiding each other until 1 defining meeting.
Report deepingfox July 22, 2018 5:01 PM BST
One of his favs,  (not faces). Predictive text got me!
Report Figgis July 22, 2018 5:49 PM BST
I wouldn't use it to condemn her classic prospects but using the clock as a guide Goddess has a huge amount still to do to prove she's got what it takes. At the moment all she's done is won a poor maiden in a time that wouldn't see her in Listed class. Yes she couldn't have done much more than win as impressively as she did but it's no surprise the books, who are nearly always stingy with anything from Ballydoyle these days, aren't exactly running for cover yet.
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR July 23, 2018 11:17 PM BST
I was at the Curragh the day Goddess made her debut and she would have trounced Peach Tree with a clear run that day and Peach Tree had the benefit of a run before then , I would expect Hermosa to improve past Peach Tree ( who looks no star to me ) but I think Goddess is in a different class to both - her optimum distance will probably be 10f next year but the Guineas is far from out of the question
Report jamesp July 24, 2018 2:22 AM BST
She was certainly given an injudicious ride by Heffernan on her Curragh debut (broke well, dropped back, held up near the rear of the field, ridden into a wall of horses up the rail), and she undoubtedly would have finished much closer with a clear run, but there's simply no way of knowing for sure that she would have beaten Peach Tree on that occasion. All one can reasonably do is put a line through that unfortunate debut performance. We can only judge her so far on that bloodless win at Leopardstown, which I suspect was quite a poor race: the runner-up was under pressure and being scrubbed along at halfway off a moderate pace and showed only a modicum of ability (she holds no big race entries); the Bolger filly likewise has no big race entries and is related to a host of mediocre siblings; the Harrington filly looked big and backward and didn't have much of a clue, but she looks a nice sort and could turn out decent later on (she was not unfancied, holds a Moyglare entry and is half-sister to the quite decent Three Bodies, though the dam and her other siblings were very slow staying types); the other two fillies showed virtually nothing. The winning time, almost six seconds slower than standard (on watered good to firm ground, light breeze) was very ordinary. Goddess could, as they say, be 'anything', but to my eyes she looks a staying galloper, albeit a very promising one.
Report jamesp July 25, 2018 12:57 PM BST
Seven fillies have been declared to run in the Gr.3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown tomorrow. Aidan O'Brien runs Goddess (Ryan Moore) and the tail-swishing Secret Thoughts, the mount of Donnacha O'Brien. The progressive Skitter Scatter has arguably the best form (close second in a Group 3 last time) but is stepping up in trip (extra furlong not certain to suit) and was beaten by one of Goddess's stablemates last time. Chicago May won comfortably on debut at Naas, but the winning time was slow. Moyglare entry Moravia is an interesting contender: after a fair effort on debut at Naas, things didn't go her way at the same track in a Listed race next time (6f trip was too short for her, met trouble in running), but she was most impressive at Leopardstown last time easily winning a 7f maiden by 4½ lengths (runner-up Secret Thoughts, who has since won a maiden, renews rivalry tomorrow). It would be a surprise if Goddess were to get turned over tomorrow; perhaps Moravia will give her something to think about.
Report STELLAR MANIPULATOR July 25, 2018 11:10 PM BST
We may have no way of knowing for sure if Goddess would have won on debut but we have eyes and opinions and Goddess was tanking all over the field at half way in a manner that suggested she was different class to the rest - Aidan O Brien, I am reliably informed, accompanied Heffernan into the Stewards room for a running and riding enquiry and stated after seeing the video that she would have won ten lengths with a clear run so he was more keen to get off the fence on that imponderable than you Jamesp ! Far from riding an injudicious race , Heffernan has become a past master of the considerate introduction for a Ballydoyle newcomer and would have been far from dismayed in encountering trouble when he was adding to the experience bank of his filly without losing her maiden status. It does not surprise me that she has been tipped up in the RP for both Guineas and Oaks in tomorrows edition.
Report jamesp July 26, 2018 6:55 PM BST
Well, something was probably amiss with Goddess there at Leopardstown this evening. She was facing much better class fillies than the ones she trounced in a weak-looking maiden last time, but her performance was too bad to be true (ridden confidently by Ryan Moore, but soon outpaced and quickly dropped away in the straight). We'll doubtless hear if something comes to light to explain the performance, and it's too soon to write her off, but it was a disappointing effort which raises more questions than it answers. The winner is a tough filly and saw out the 7f trip really well.
Report jamesp July 29, 2018 4:27 PM BST
For anyone who missed the update in yesterday's RP:
Aidan O'Brien will monitor the health of Goddess amid concerns about the wellbeing of his horses after failing to find any reason for the poor performance of the 1,000 Guineas hope at Leopardstown. O'Brien said: "Some of our horses haven’t been scoping right so there seems to be some sort of bug around. We won’t declare them or run them unless they scope clean and their bloods are right. Sometimes you don’t know until you run them, but if we stopped having runners we wouldn’t know anything. It affects some horses but not others."
Goddess, an impressive ten-length winner on her second start, after which she was made favourite for next year’s 1,000 Guineas, trailed in last of six runners in the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes having been sent off the 4-9 favourite. O'Brien said: "Goddess seemed fine this morning. She wasn’t distressed and we’ll see how she is over the next few days. It was a very ordinary run and for some reason the real Goddess didn’t turn up."
Report impossible123 July 29, 2018 7:53 PM BST
Something is clearly amiss with some of AOB's charges at the present moment. Hydrangea ran no race in the King George & QE Stakes yesterday despite having beaten Coronet who finished 3rd comprehensively over the same distance in the Fillies and Mares last October. If any further confirmation is needed Goodwood next week could provide the definitive answer with several of his charges in contention eg Rhododendron, Magical, Gustav Klimt and Idaho.
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