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unclepuncle
03 Jul 18 12:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 6,436 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
Blakeney Point @ 14/1 for me.

Desperately unlucky in the race last year and comes here having had the exact same prep.
7lb claimer boomed and Roger Charlton stable in amazing form.

What could possibly go wrong.Laugh
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Report unclepuncle July 3, 2018 1:40 PM BST
^booked.
Hopefully I’ll be going ‘boom’ when they cross the line.Cool
Report Facts July 3, 2018 10:56 PM BST
'........What could possibly go wrong.Laugh.....'



Er....that the other Charlton horse romps home ?
Report unclepuncle July 4, 2018 10:53 AM BST
Spoilsport.Angry
Report Oldgit1 July 4, 2018 9:02 PM BST
Elgin rated 98 is an interesting runner and second favourite. Is that because of money or the opinion of Bookies ?
Report unclepuncle July 4, 2018 11:24 PM BST
King had said Elgin will only run if they get rain to ease the ground which isn’t likely.
Report unclepuncle July 5, 2018 6:03 PM BST
Drawn 16 - time to cash out.CryCry
Report harry callaghan July 5, 2018 7:29 PM BST
is a high draw a bad thing in the old newton cup then unclepunkle?
Report unclepuncle July 5, 2018 8:11 PM BST
It certainly is a poitive at Haydock.Sad
If they go steady he has no chance from there.
Report unclepuncle July 5, 2018 8:12 PM BST
He was drawn 17 last year and finished a never nearer 4th - I fear a similar scenario.
Report harry callaghan July 5, 2018 8:36 PM BST
i don't know what previous races you are referring but a high draw certainly isn't a bad thing in the race, judged on previous runnings of the race, so don't really get what your on about.

the reason why he was 4th last year is he did not get a clean run through in the race in the straight, nothing to do with his draw
Report unclepuncle July 5, 2018 8:48 PM BST
He got a bad run through because he had to drop in from his high draw.
A low draw and being on the front end is a big advantage at Haydock - even over jumps front runners have a great record there.
Report harry callaghan July 5, 2018 9:16 PM BST
He got a bad run through because he had to drop in from his high draw.




more nonsense...

there was a massive pace collapse last year and if he had got a clean run in the straight he would of gone close, he came from the same position in the straight as the winner, zero to do with his draw
Report unclepuncle July 5, 2018 10:03 PM BST
You'd better lump on then Harry.
Report harry callaghan July 5, 2018 10:24 PM BST
sorry you must of thought i fancied the horse, i don't as think he has to much weight but he will certainly get the race run to suit and can probably get in the money

i just think you're analysis of the draw is nonsense and don't see the bias
Report unclepuncle July 5, 2018 11:29 PM BST
You yourself have said that there was ‘a massive pace collapse last year’ - this is why he was able to make up so much ground from being so far back - he made up 3L in the last 100 yards.
But as a general rule if you don’t think there is a benefit to being in a ‘forward position’ at Haydock then good luck to you.

The last time we argued on here it was whether Peddlars Cross was going to be a better novice chaser than Sprinter Sacre - happy to pull that up from the archives if you like.LaughLaughLaugh
Report morpteh mackem July 6, 2018 8:41 AM BST
atkinson grimshaw for me, nice draw, nice weight,fresh horse, got an awful feeling will be pw.
Report harry callaghan July 6, 2018 11:33 AM BST
i've never had an interest in peddlars cross, so more nonsense to add most of the other stuff you keep posting

if you want a victory on other biases in other races run at haydock park then that is up to you, this is supposed to be a thread on the old newton cup, a race which you clearly know nothing about
Report Madhu July 6, 2018 12:54 PM BST
There was a massive pace collapse last year?

The way I viewed the race was- Soldier In Action led early before Farquhar took over and went clear- obviously a pacemaker for Big Country before being a spent force over two out. Just before they entered the straight Soldier In Action raced in clear second with Big Country (chased the leaders in third) and Kapstadt (tracked the leaders in fourth) three and four lengths behind Soldier In Action and Shraaoh two lengths behind those on the inside. Tawdeea was wide of Dylan Mouth a length or so further behind with Blakeney Point and Fabricate (wide) held up a couple more lengths back. Soldier In Action (and possibly even Big Country (outstayed)) led two out and was not swallowed up, he was only outgunned by an on the day well handicapped (MG1SW in Italy) strong stayer in Dylan Mouth. It was not the case that the other closers - Blakeney Point, Tawdeea, and Fabricate got near to the leaders before being asked for their maximum effort and they run by the field, as in a proper pace melt down as less than three lengths covered all those mentioned in the first eight home behind the winner. There was no massive pace collapse, it was just a strong run race throughout that brought stamina into play.
Report harry callaghan July 6, 2018 1:30 PM BST
Soldier In Action (and possibly even Big Country (outstayed)) led two out and was not swallowed up, he was only outgunned by an on the day well



this is when you give credit to a horse who was up with that pace being set (soldier in action), but he was still a sitting duck to the closers who had sat well off the pace 


There was no massive pace collapse, it was just a strong run race throughout that brought stamina into play.


this a contradiction as all the first 6 home raced towards the rear or rear of mid-division, the fact soldier in action was still in there pitching just shows he stays well and was still well handicapped, under a more conservative ride i have no doubt he would of gone very close but he payed for being up with the gallop being set and he was on the engine the whole way...it payed to be held up and the pace did collapse imo which suited the deep run closers who would not of had the pace to win the race if the race was run at an even gallop
Report Madhu July 6, 2018 11:43 PM BST
harry Callaghan

I think you have underestimated the gutsy performance of Soldier In Action in holding off the rest. Dylan Mouth was a G1SW at 3 and 4 in Italy and put up a high-class performance off 9-10 (OR 104). When you do a quick Google, Dylan Mouth had a FS% 102.1 (Tfig 125, TFR116+, 115 timefigure Simon Rowlands), which suggest he ran efficiently.  As Soldier In Action carried the same weight and was just 2 ¼ lengths behind, I would say he did also. 

Your interpretations do Soldier In Action a disservice and is inadequate-

this is when you give credit to a horse who was up with that pace being set (soldier in action), but he was still a sitting duck to the closers who had sat well off the pace

For sure Shraaoh, Blakeney Point, Tawdeea and Fabricate were “closers” as such but they only just finished if front of both Kapstadt (tracked leaders), a poorly handicapped 7yo, and Big Country (chased leaders), a non-stayer. If you take out the performance of Dylan Mouth, Soldier In Action comfortably held off the others, and he certainly didn’t slow down enough or deaccelerate sufficiently for the others to get past him.

the fact soldier in action was still in there pitching just shows he stays well and was still well handicapped, under a more conservative ride i have no doubt he would of gone very close but he payed for being up with the gallop being set and he was on the engine the whole way

Soldier In Action was under a conservative ride. Richard Kingscote rode his own race from a low draw taking up the pace on the extension to the round course before the turn and gravitating over to the far side of the back straight; thereafter Farquhar had managed to get on the lead from the widest stall (19) after 4f before going clear is his pace making duty. Richard Kingscote more or less ignored the pacemaker as he was obviously going too fast until he made his move over 3f out. Your notion that “he was on the engine all the way” is nonsense. He was given a fine ride. When he was headed it looked like he'd be swallowed up, but he kept on resolutely with distance back to the rest behind a classy horse that ran off a good mark, was from stable that had struck form, that had a perfect trip. Dylan Mouth was also given a good ride by Harry Bentley as he had been keen and ruined his chances the last few starts.

If you look at the subsequent performances’ of the “closers” within 5l of Soldier In Action- Shraaoh is obviously a 14f horse,  Blakeney Point is much better with some give (hung left on rock hard ground at Newmarket behind Hochfeld, 26th August), Tawdeea has been regressive since, and Fabricate was better at 10f as a 5yo. Euchen Glen has been one of my favourites since a 3yo and the Appletiser Stakes at Ascot in September 2016 when he finished strongly from off the pace behind the likes of Danehill Kodiac, Dal Harraild and Wild Hacked (in front of Dance The Dream)- all on good marks. His running here was adequate for horse I knew would still improve for age and distance. All things considered there was no massive pace collapse, it was just a strong run race throughout that brought stamina into play, and the front two ran to par.
Report Madhu July 7, 2018 1:27 AM BST
After two Old Mout kiwi and lime ciders I thought I better give my selection now and pre-race analysis. This year there is obviously going to be a strong pace in the Old Newton Cup as there are numerous runners who have made the pace and early positioning will be significant. Although past runnings on good to firm have shown no real bias, I think if you are drawn wide and held-up it’s a disadvantage, whereas if you front-run/race prominently being drawn low will be advantageous.

Blakeney Point has 9-10, has a difficult draw in 16 and is better with some give.

Mount Tahan is held up at the rear, has poor draw in 15, his stable is not in good form, has had a wind-op, has a lot of weight and is better on the AW.

Crowned Eagle would have a better chance with give and looks up against it off 102.

Teodoro has a good draw to race prominently, has excellent course form, will love the ground and ran a PB last time out. The negatives are he ran only ten days ago, although he won easily, and he has never won or ran well in a big field. I do think he will run well though as I have followed him and think he will be a top-class handicapper. I missed the boat though price-wise as I thought I could get bigger.

Across The Stars has nothing in hand on 101 and vulnerable, I question his form and his best runs in the last two years has been with some give.

Sofia’s Rock comes from the right stable, acts well at the course and on top of the ground but has only won or placed in fields with
Report Madhu July 7, 2018 1:28 AM BST
Atty Perse is having his first run since being gelded having disappointed in his last two runs, is returning from a 318 day gap, in first time tongue-tie, has an in-form (8/15 in 2018) inexperienced (1 ride at course) apprentice  and will probably need the race.

Titi Makfi has been going after Black-Type on turf since April and does not looked well-handicapped off 98.

Wingingit has also been going after Black-Type and does not look well-handicapped off 96.

Aclimatise is running to improve his sales price after running disappointingly in his last two races.

Society Red has the widest draw and I think he will be disadvantaged from there.

Eye Of The Storm is interesting because of his recent good run for Keith Dalgleish behind Euchen Glen and the progressive Northwest Frontier in a slow run Class 2 race at Ayr. As there is a lot of pace in the race I think he could get a place and I will be backing him in the 3 Places market.

Rainbow Rebel has been on the go since last October and won a weak Class 3 over 10f at Pontefract last time out.

Golden Wolf has been mildly progressive going up in trip but so has his rating and he is 1/11.

Koeman is poorly handicapped.

Tawdeea is regressive since running in the race last year but it would not be such a surprise if he happened to win but I can’t see it.

Atkinson Grimshaw is one I really like and I have backed him at 14/1. He is a fine looking horse that comes from a H H Aga Khan family dam-side. I like the look of his two runs last year behind the then well- handicapped Thundering Blue and Marzouq respectively.  I also really liked his first run for Iain Jardine in a slow run race behind Exhort, a filly I also like who runs in the last race tomorrow. He wasn’t given a hard time and since I think he could have gone close with a stronger run race, he is running without a penalty as such. He has the pace and a good draw in 5 to get a good positon. Jamie Gormley is an excellent strong apprentice jockey worth 3lb and will be racing off a featherweight.
Report harry callaghan July 7, 2018 9:52 AM BST
pace looks assured mostly from low numbers with crowned eagle, rainbow rebel, sofias rock and teodoro all likely to want to be on the engine

just 4 horses appeal to me from a handicapping point of view and from how the race should pan out

across the stars seems well weighted to me off 101 and appears to be reaching a point of a major run, he is my main bet and should get a lovely lead into the race

i think blakeney point has to much weight but still like him to get in the money under a decent young apprentice, plenty of pace on here so he should get his chance to close it down if ridden to close

i have a feeling she has to much weight but wingingit should at least get a pace to run, something she hasn't had so far since running over here

i also like the rag acclimatise who is not a 50 poke and can be forgiven his last 2 races, he is a sneaky long shot that is not dismissed lightly

a tricky affair and atty perse may just have plenty in hand but is running off the lay off so is passed over on this occasion
Report unclepuncle July 7, 2018 10:36 AM BST
Have laid off a quarter of my BP bet and have added Across The Stars, for the same reasons Harry gives, and also a stakes saver on Crowned Eagle just in case the pace doesn’t collapse.
GL all.Grin
Report unclepuncle July 7, 2018 1:45 PM BST
BP must have lost a leg - out to 25/1 on here.Cry
Report nocturnal July 7, 2018 1:47 PM BST
Agreed with the tricky bit.

Wingingit......Take Madhu point re handicap mark,its a matter of opinion on this one.On a line through Titi Makfi the mark looks fair.

The last run at Ponte was a real eyecatcher,pulled hard for a fair way,under a tender ride throughout the final couple furlongs.Balding looks to have had a clear run with her this season,trip and ground fine,outside draw no problem if she can settle early doors,stable jock gets on her today,interesting horse.

GL ALL
Report unclepuncle July 7, 2018 1:53 PM BST
Exactly the same as last year for BP and my saver comes 2nd.Cry
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