This looks competitive: Rhododendron winner of the Lockinge over Lightning Spear is 3/1 fav and 8/1 respectively; Benbatl (6/1) Godolphin rep who's done very well at Meydan over a slightly longer trip; Recoletos (7/1) French challenger who's more suited to easier going (presently Ascot is good to firm) and longer trip.
The price difference between Rhododendron and Lightning Spear is a bit mad when you consider they basically dead heated last time.
I'm going to go down with my ship and back the same two horses who let me down in the Lockinge - Limato @ 25/1 and Zonderland @ 33/1.
The price difference between Rhododendron and Lightning Spear is a bit mad when you consider they basically dead heated last time.I'm going to go down with my ship and back the same two horses who let me down in the Lockinge - Limato @ 25/1 and Zonde
looks like James Doyle has been booked to ride Limato, interesting given the owner's previous history with Bentley.
Struggling to find a betting angle, Deauville is interesting, the abortive trip to the US prior to his Lockinge run can't have been the ideal prep, the concern obviously is that he'll primarily be trying to set the race up for his stable mate.
looks like James Doyle has been booked to ride Limato, interesting given the owner's previous history with Bentley.Struggling to find a betting angle, Deauville is interesting, the abortive trip to the US prior to his Lockinge run can't have been the
Is it not astonishing one of the pundits on ATR Forum intimated he'd not understand why Lightning Spear (LS) was twice the price of Rhododendron despite the former was only beaten a short head in the Lockinge? I'd have thought it is obviously clear because of the stiff mile and uphill finish at Ascot as LS was chinned in the Lockinge at Newbury.
Is it not astonishing one of the pundits on ATR Forum intimated he'd not understand why Lightning Spear (LS) was twice the price of Rhododendron despite the former was only beaten a short head in the Lockinge? I'd have thought it is obviously clear b
I'm not suggesting you're 100% wrong, but sometimes you have to think out of the box and not simply go with the crowd. There's no real evidence to suggest Limato doesn't get 8f in s group 1 race.
He's only raced over the trip 3 times anyway, and forget it's run LTO.
That leaves the Breeders Cup where he was 11/4f, 6th, only 3.5L off the winner and 3L off Tepin (2nd) giving her 3lb and we all know how useful she is.
In the Lockinge 2016, he was 3/1f, finished 4th, only 2.5L off the winner and was hampered twice. Anyone that's backed him will get a good run and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he won, or finished in front of Rhododendron.
Impossible123,I'm not suggesting you're 100% wrong, but sometimes you have to think out of the box and not simply go with the crowd. There's no real evidence to suggest Limato doesn't get 8f in s group 1 race. He's only raced over the trip 3 times an
Looking at past results on the straight track on good to firm ground the place to be has been closer to the stands side.
With the stalls positioned in the centre I guess it will be stalls 1-8 and a two stall gap with 9-15 over towards the stands side. Significantly all the horses in the far side group are usually held-up.
Deauville, on figures, put up his best performance in last year’s Queen Anne Stakes but he has twice gone close in the Arlington Million and only won over 1m2f or thereabouts since his juvenile season. With only two runs thus far this season it looks to me that he is being conditioned for Arlington Park and possibly taking on Winx in the Cox Plate, therefore, I’d imagine for Mrs Fitriana Hay and the Coolmore lads he’s here to play a pace making role, and a strategic one at that. I foresee Deauville leading and Century Dream an early presser, with Rhododendron tracking these two. In this scenario Benbatl positioned not too far away from the likely pace towards his left will edge over to track the leaders. With no pace in the far side group the rest of that bunch will possibly become held-up on the wing. The GoingStick readings across the course has heavily influenced the jockeys in the past but I think if the readings stay as they are at present- equal across the track, the Coolmore strategy will be to gradually move more and more over to the stands rail down the straight, which all things considered will have put the far side group to an overall disadvantage by now.
For me the Prix d'Ispahan winner Recoletos in stall 1 looks up against it. To my mind as the race has been dominated by horses aged 4 or 5, a winner coming from the older brigade- Lightning Spear, Limato, Suedois, So Beloved- has always appeared unlikely, but now given their positioning even more so. I don’t think Zonderland, Oh This Is Us or Century Dream, Accidental Agent or Lord Glitters are up to this class, and although the latter three obviously have smart form over the course and distance, Accidental Agent is the only one I can see running well, given his eye-catching performance in the Lockinge Stakes and likely fast ground.
There has been some really top-class fillies and mares take part in the past, and in the last ten years two five-year-old mares, Goldikova and Tepin have been successful, while Esoterique, Goldikova and Darjina finished runner-up. Interestingly before then, both Peeress and Red Evie tried unsuccessfully to follow-up wins in the Lockinge Stakes. This year’s winner Rhododendron has Group 1 wins at two, three and now four and twice over a mile. Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore believe there is more improvement to come from her. She is straightforward and with the said pace scenario will get a perfect trip in order to back-up her run at Newbury.
The William Mott-trained Yoshida is coming here off an impressive victory over Beach Patrol in the Turf Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs over 1m1f on yielding at the beginning of May. As a Japanese-bred son of Heart's Cry (by Sunday Silence) and out of a G1SW winner a good performance will obviously increase his value as a stallion. I totally underestimated the chances of Tepin back in 2016 due to the straight track and no drugs, no nasal strip but in relation to Yoshida, she was a four-time G1SW and 120+ rated coming into that race, and while Yoshida may have improved this year, taking a line through Beach Patrol and his Arlington Million win over Fanciful Angel and Deauville, I think he is up against it to get place.
I don’t rate the performance of Benbatl in the Dubai Turf as highly as the given RPR and although Saeed Bin Suroor has suggested dropping back in trip from 9f over the stiff mile should be fine for him, on considering his running in the Derby last year I disagree and think Godolphin have dodged wasting two bullets against Cracksman when he can run here as the highest rated going into what looks an open race.
Beat The Bank was my idea of a horse going places at the start of the season. It was reported that he scoped badly after he disappointed in the Jersey, and Andrew Balding reckoned he was possibly over-the-top in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. His running in the Lockinge Stakes was below par but when you consider the stable form at the time you can understand why if you are looking for reasons. By my reckoning he is perfectly drawn to track Rhododendron. Moreover, the form of the runners from Park House Stables has taken off in recent times and from what I have read he is in good order. There has to be a doubt over his ability to be at his best over the straight track at Ascot on paper but his best performance was over the straight Rowley mile course at Newmarket. I have ante-post slips dating back to the start of the year and since he has become my cliff horse have topped-up at much bigger prices during the past month. I certainly have not given up hope for him and expect a much better showing come Tuesday.
Looking at past results on the straight track on good to firm ground the place to be has been closer to the stands side.With the stalls positioned in the centre I guess it will be stalls 1-8 and a two stall gap with 9-15 over towards the stands side.