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woodmanchester
03 Jun 18 18:18
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Date Joined: 25 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 30,419 | Blogger: woodmanchester's blog
Could some kind soul please tell me if Masar will by-pass Royal Ascot and go for the Irish Derby? Thanks

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Replies: 28
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 03 Jun 18 21:07
Irish derby most likley
By:
impossible123
When: 03 Jun 18 21:55
At 7/4, and the fav Saxon warrior is not certain to run either, value?
By:
impossible123
When: 04 Jun 18 17:24
The latest news is possibly the Eclipse, but why? The natural progression would be the Irish Derby, surely. Notwithstanding, the price of Saxon Warrior have drifted out to 2.62 (from 2.5) here similarly, from 4/5 to 6/4 with high street bookies; I'd expected the price of SW
to contract rather than drift outward.
By:
sintonian
When: 05 Jun 18 15:21
Should wait for the King George, or Juddmonte.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 05 Jun 18 16:51
Blimey have we reached a stage where the Derby winner running in the Eclipse is a bit odd?  There was a time before Ballydoyle you know!
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 05 Jun 18 18:11
In the last 30 years 6 Derby winners ran in the Eclipse, 3 won and 3 were second.

It's not the norm. Even money chance then.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 05 Jun 18 18:19
That's as 3 year olds
By:
impossible123
When: 05 Jun 18 21:08
When the owner of Masar had waited 20+ years for a convincing Derby winner the next most likely race would be the Irish equivalent to cement Masar's authority over those he'd beaten especially if the high profile SW beaten odds-on fav in the Derby was deemed to have underperformed for whatever reason. Why drop Masar in trip for The Eclipse (10f) so soon after winning emphatically over 12f?

There are always the Champion Stakes (English and Irish) later on both over 10f, if still that way inclined post the Irish Derby.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 06 Jun 18 11:08
It's absolutely perfectly normal. Using the 30 year sample, this was the next race for domestic winners of the Derby (that were not returning from injury):

Eclipse 4
King George 4
Irish Derby 1
By:
unclepuncle
When: 06 Jun 18 11:55
I123 has backed Masar for the Irush Derby (£10 at most) and us now making every argument possible to say that is where hecshoukd run.

He dud the exact same thing on theYorkhill thread after he had, by his own ommission, £2 on it at about 60/1 and then laid it off at about 25/1.Laugh

The guy is a clown and shoukd be barred.Angry
By:
The Headmaster
When: 06 Jun 18 12:49
Since the French screwed their own Derby, and in turn did the Irish Derby no favours by effectively removing the 'title decider' element the Curragh once had, I'm afraid to say it's taken on the slight feeling of a consolation race (or a lap of honour if an Irish-trained horse won at Epsom). 

If you don't have any particular allegiance to the Irish Derby (and why would you if you aren't Irish), then the Eclipse, King George or a break ahead of a big autumn would make much more sense than running at the Curragh.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 06 Jun 18 14:40
Headmaster, I didn't realise you was only talking of domestic Derby winners not returning from injury. You were unclear there.

I have no preference where he runs, but I hope he remains unbeaten, love him to death.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 06 Jun 18 14:42
Unbeaten from now on that is.

I was unclear there.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 06 Jun 18 16:35
I123 has backed Masar for the Irush Derby (£10 at most) and us now making every argument possible to say that is where hecshoukd run.

The guy is a clown and should be barred.

Definitely shouldn't be banned, it's his opinion, he's entitled to it and that's what a forum is for.

Having said that, his system of backing so many in a race is completely faulted. He may get the winner of a big race, but at odds-on in most cases. Additionally, I find he changes his mind so often, and for those that may doubt this, just look at his own 2016 Epsom Derby thread, it's almost comical. He has on occasion got a touch snappy as well, and i suspect he doesn't like criticism (that is fair enough).

His post on the Epsom Derby thread that Saxon Warrior was 'backed off the boards' for the St James Palace was erroneous (buttons matched) but he obviously wanted comfort as he had backed it with hard earned at 5's and 7s. It's now trading at 65 Shocked.

I feel Masar will go for the Eclipse, not the Irish Derby.

I also feel Saxon Warrior will not only go for the Irish Derby, but win convincingly.

If Saxon Warrior runs in the SJP, i will personally apologise to impossible123 on here.

Good luck.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Jun 18 17:33
I believe the ultimate objective for Masar this season is the Arc in October. If so, the Irish Derby or a break, then the King George would be an ideal prep for the Arc, agree? What I fail to fathom is why a down trip and run in the Eclipse after winning the Derby so emphatically whatever excuse SW might legitimately have?

Masar has proven he stays 12f and clearly outstayed the others including SW (even on a level playing field, in my opinion); the Irish Derby ought to be his next race, or have a break until the King George prior to a tilt at the Arc in Oct.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 06 Jun 18 18:01
Impossible123,

The days of Epsom/Irish Derby double winners aka Nijinsky, Grundy, Troy and Shergar et all are long gone.

Breeders want speed today, so if they can have a 12f stallion that has won at 8f and 10f, it makes him far more attractive.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 06 Jun 18 18:03
I guess i should have re-phrased that due to Harzard and Camelot, but i still feel my point is valid.
By:
bobbyjo
When: 06 Jun 18 18:59
I thought there was an unwritten rule that AOB sent his best middle distance colt - i.e a Derby winner, to the Irish Derby.
So the days of that double are more likely than ever ?
By:
Madhu
When: 06 Jun 18 19:27
Eclipse 7th July.
Juddmonte International 22nd Aug.

As he has been on the go since March, rest until English Champion Stakes 22nd Oct.

As he goes well fresh and needs a proper time to recover, no Arc run as less than two weeks between races this year.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 06 Jun 18 20:20
Bobbyjo,

I thought there was an unwritten rule that AOB sent his best middle distance colt - i.e a Derby winner, to the Irish Derby. So the days of that double are more likely than ever ?

I'm not aware of an unwritten rule, but looking at records there appears to be logic for what you're saying. AOB has won the Epsom Derby 6 times, 4 have won the Epsom/Irish double.

I looked at all non-AOB Epsom Derby winners going back to Erhaab in 1994. Only 3 even ran in the Irish Derby, 2 of them won the Epsom/Irish double
By:
bobbyjo
When: 06 Jun 18 20:40
The other two ran in the Irish Derby but didn't win it - ROTW & WOE
I'm probably an old cynic Andrew but since the tax break the Irish Government gave Stud Farm owners 20 odd years ago there did seem to be a quid pro quo from certain owners. It's gone now but they certainly seem to send their best colts to the Irish Derby and Champion Stakes whenever possible.
The running of Camelot in very heavy ground seemed a strange decision.
Anyway I'll never know whats behind their decisions but seems to be a route they follow
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 06 Jun 18 21:02
Bobbyjo,

Correct on the top line.

As for Camelot, i've posted several times that running him on very soft grund in the Irish Derby ruined the horse, he was never the same again, and it cost Coolmore a triple crown winner for little positive reward.
By:
sintonian
When: 06 Jun 18 21:31
Derby, Irish Derby, King George would be an awful prep for the Arc. It's also pretty clear the Arc was not the ultimate objective this season. I don't think he had one given they ran him on the fcuking dirt in Dubai. The horse has just defied expectations and improved liked the well bred horse he is.

Imo, running at the Curragh is just trying to get one over on Coolmore.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 06 Jun 18 21:35
Sintonian,

I tend to agree, and don't think they will send him to Ireland anyway, instead avoid SW and go for the Eclipse.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 06 Jun 18 22:50
I123 - If they want to win the Arc then the Eclipse is the race to go for - Sea The Stars and Golden Horn prove that.
By:
The Headmaster
When: 06 Jun 18 23:58
Camelot wasn't done over by running in the Irish Derby.  What prevented him becoming a great was the fact he was a very very average racehorse who just happened to be top of the charts in one of the worst classic crops in living memory. None of his form stacks up, not one single run.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 07 Jun 18 04:43
Headmaster,

I totally agree with you that Camelots generation were very poor, he wasn't a great by any means, or close, and even if he had won the Leger should never have been mentioned in the same sentence with Nijinsky.

I do believe though, that running him in the heavy ground at the Curragh, where he laboured to win, and had a hard race to do so, was a poor decision by AOB/Coolmore. He was 5/5 after the race and given 11 weeks to get over the exertion, but wasn't the same horse thereafter winning only once from his next 5, and that was an egg and spoon Group 3 @ 1/3 beating a stablemate.

In my opinion Camelots best form line (and probably only decent one) was in the Tattersalls Gold Cup when he was runner up (@ 4/11) on good/firm to Al Kazeem who won many group races.
By:
liberator of the oppressed
When: 16 Jun 18 18:11
The Eclipse it is Woody makes a lot of sense best 2/1 shot you will see in a very very long time is a machine goes off 4/6 4 or 5 go to post wins by half the track jobs a good un. I'm already counting.
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