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27 Oct 17 05:15
Date Joined: 25 Aug 11
| Topic/replies: 30,419 | Blogger: woodmanchester's blog
Why is John clear fav over Might Bite for the Betfair Chase, yet Bite fav for the King George, please?
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Report Can't Catch Me October 27, 2017 11:06 AM BST
The going is probably a factor? Betfair Chase normally run in testing conditions and is a fair old slog. KG a bit more of a speed test.

Of the two races you'd certainly say the KG would suit Might Bite best of the two, whilst the Betfair would suit Sizing John better.
Report impossible123 October 27, 2017 11:21 AM BST
I thought I read somewhere earlier Henderson indicated Might Bite (MB) - more suitable for the King George - would be an unlikely runner for the Betfair Chase and was prepared for the King George whereas Sizing John (SJ) is as he is going for that £1m bonus of offer - MB is not.
Report Desmond Orchard October 27, 2017 1:25 PM BST
I'm of the opposite view, CCM.
I thought Sizing John won the Gold Cup last season through being the best horse in the race rather than the stoutest stayer. Personally I'd fancy him more for the KG than the Betfair. I know Might Bite wandered around a bit on the run-in of the RSA, but that looked more like concentration than stamina, I think he's laden with it and would similarly favour him at Haydock.
It remains to be seen how Sizing John comes out of last year, Gold Cup winners don't always shine the following season. I'm pretty excited by Might Bite, he could be the real deal and would be my long range Gold Cup fancy at this stage.
Report kevinglass October 30, 2017 2:05 PM GMT
If Sizing John doesn't win the Betfair, he may well stay in Ireland over Xmas too, I guess?
Report woodmanchester October 31, 2017 11:50 AM GMT
Yeah, most firms taken Might Bite out of the betting now

7/4 John 365 looking good
Report impossible123 October 31, 2017 7:43 PM GMT
Sizing John is friendless for the Gold Cup at present (11 here) but Our Duke is hugely in demand (into 9 from 11) prior to his JNwine Chase this saturday.
Report impossible123 November 9, 2017 1:32 PM GMT
kevinglass, that does make sense. There'd be little point as there are so many appropriate races in Ireland prior to March. Also, I think the sharp 3m at Kempton suits Might Bite and Thistlecrack (if fully recovered) better than Sizing John given the latter's Punchestown run when he just got up to beat Djakadam, a horse he'd earlier beaten with ease at Cheltenham.
Report impossible123 November 30, 2017 4:37 PM GMT
Why is Thistlecrack (injured last season/not been out/1st run back over hurdles not fences) shorter than either Sizing John (reigning GC champion) and Might Bite (been out/won and had excellent novice form except one last season) in the Gold Cup (GC) betting here? Thistlecrack was outstayed and could not beat Many Clouds (RIP) over 1f shorter than the GC trip; if he bombs and/or not run to form in the Long Distance hurdle tomorrow his price could lengthen significantly, and this is a real possibility; if he wins and/or runs well tomorrow his present price has already factored this race in, I believe.
Report cyclops December 1, 2017 5:32 PM GMT
Good shout impossible.
Yes, puzzling to say the least why Thistlecrack has been GC favourite. He has to prove his wellbeing, stay sound and improve his chasing form to feature. The first of those requirements wasn't really met today and he now has to face the others. The two you mention are easily the most solid options and backing them both gives around 4/1 which I think is very attractive in the face of most of others at the top of the betting being unlikely runners and/or have questions to answer.
Report impossible123 December 1, 2017 8:41 PM GMT
cyclops, horse racing is mainly about and again one gets it correct, other times horribly wrong.

I have MB big for the KG, and MB and SJ for the GC both still available at attractive prices; if the former wins the KG (only 7/4 now) his GC price will at least half his present similarly SJ in Ireland; I cannot have Thistlecrack after today's performance.
Report impossible123 December 11, 2017 4:35 PM GMT
On Sizing John, Harrington: "I haven't made any decision whether he'll run at x'mas or not. We'll see how he is and he'll tell us whether to go or not. I'd love to run him at Leopardstown, but we'll do whatever is good for the horse. I love Leopardstown at x'mas. They always nearly have as good a ground as you'll get any where at that time of year."

The King George Chase is looking increasingly unlikely now. Next March against Might Bite then.
Report impossible123 December 26, 2017 4:09 PM GMT
Sizing John and Might Bite are still available at 9/2 and 13/2 respectively for the Gold Cup; the former beat Djakadam easily over a less than optimum trip, and the latter won cosily in the King George today despite idling infront from 3 out.
Report EastLower Gooner December 26, 2017 7:45 PM GMT
Might as well back them both then...
Report The Dragon December 28, 2017 2:14 PM GMT
sj is the best bet 4 sure
Report woodmanchester December 28, 2017 3:21 PM GMT
Got 80/1 Might Bite on the King George/Gold Cup double now and Sizing John just flopped at Leopardstown
Report EastLower Gooner December 28, 2017 3:53 PM GMT
Found to be sick post race...probably did well under the circumstances.
Report impossible123 December 28, 2017 6:35 PM GMT
Time to lay a bit off, 'woodmanchester'. I'm a backer of Sizing John (SJ) and Might Bite (MB) at 8/1 for the Gold Cup, and more MB at 13/2 with 'Sportsbook' post the King George. I hope it was just a case of over physical assertion with SJ on yielding ground and proximity to his previous race; backed him agan post defeat as clearly that was not his true running, the reason being...the ending of the Gold Cup target for Yorkhill.

Sizing John and Might Bite spectacle next March, both being well of course.
Report woodmanchester January 10, 2018 11:59 AM GMT
Exch market suspended for some reason. Anyone know why?
Report buddeliea January 10, 2018 12:18 PM GMT
entry stage
Report impossible123 January 10, 2018 5:10 PM GMT
No enigmatic Yorkhill in the Gold Cup so a straight fight between these two with Might Bite (probably) being the hare in the race. Tasty!
Report impossible123 January 11, 2018 11:11 AM GMT
Sizing John is going straight to the Gold Cup - no prep prior - according to Harrington. Music to my ears,...he's a proven entity.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2018 12:14 PM GMT
So he goes to the Gold Cup on the back of that run.
Should keep the price higher anyway.
Report FOYLESWAR January 11, 2018 1:29 PM GMT
straight fight between these 2 ? if only it were that simple
Report impossible123 January 11, 2018 4:35 PM GMT
The price of Sizing John between now and race day will be determined by his homework, I'd think. And given he was 7/2 fav prior to the Lexus a good chance it would head that way too from present.

"Practitioners" of some fields tend to complicate matters eg religion and politics. Sometimes it is as simple as that eg A or B, and just take your pick; one is proven, the other an up-and-coming pretender.
Report buddeliea January 11, 2018 5:03 PM GMT
But he did'nt go into the Lexus off the back of an abysmal run.
We can dress it up anyway we like,but at the end of the day, if you are backing SJ, you are hoping all his problems are well and truly gone.
Basically you are putting a line through it,and hoping he can get fit to win a Gold Cup at home.
Not for me......but of course the price may change that,and if he became a price i consider worth taking despite my feelings,i may well take it.....have to be bigger than it is now though.

And anyone thinking its a 2 horse race is barking!!
Report ReaseHeath January 11, 2018 5:25 PM GMT
imp123 obviously missed the 2010 Gold Cup which was a straight fight between Denman and Kauto Star won by Imperial Commander.
Report impossible123 January 11, 2018 6:18 PM GMT
Sizing John did have a hard 2017 season and despite winning the John Durkan (20f) on heavy ground the race took more out of him than 1st envisaged - the Lexus was just 18 days later. I'm not the least worried not having a prep prior to the main event but I shall be monitoring his work at home; he is a tough horse to be able to win 3 Gold Cups.
Report harry callaghan January 11, 2018 6:44 PM GMT
"Practitioners" of some fields tend to complicate matters eg religion and politics. Sometimes it is as simple as that eg A or B, and just take your pick; one is proven, the other an up-and-coming pretender.

walofs anything that backs up the horses you have backed

And anyone thinking its a 2 horse race is barking!!

at last some sense
Report woodmanchester January 17, 2018 10:51 AM GMT
Gold Cup a proper leveller but Might Bite stands out like a sore thumb, if he lasts home
Report buddeliea January 18, 2018 12:56 PM GMT
Well its possible he wont last home of course, but any horse taking him on will struggle to last home as well!.
Look for horses coming from off the pace you know will stay imo........Rocco for example.
Report woodmanchester January 18, 2018 3:56 PM GMT
Well, judged on his final run before Cheltenham, Sizing John is going to finish nearer last than first, while Might Bite continues to carry all before him. Some plodders that stay will surely find Might Bite too sharp?
Report buddeliea January 18, 2018 5:32 PM GMT
Well he's my idea of the winner,been thinking it since the RSA,but i do feel that a horse off the pace will place,and if MB does struggle to get home,then may even win.
Report impossible123 January 18, 2018 7:16 PM GMT
The last run of Sizing John was his one and only bad run, and that was after a hard race on bad ground just 16 days prior. Unless one believes there is truly something amiss with him then he'll not retain his blue riband crown in March. But I'm not, thus I still strongly believe he is the best horse in the field especially on good ground.

Might Bite is the next best, in my opinion. Our Duke is good too (if fully back from injury), but the likes of Bristol De Mai, Coney Island, Native River, Road To Respect and Blaklion would be no match to them given known form. As always, one to his own.
Report buddeliea January 18, 2018 7:27 PM GMT
Yep, Our Duke is on my side,he will be staying when others have cried enough.
Report impossible123 January 28, 2018 7:43 PM GMT
I'm astounded Sizing John, the ever reliable tough and consistent Gold Cup holder, is still available at 7/1 and 6/1 (nrnb) after just one unexplained bad run, the only one in his racing career.

I hope his trainer Harrington would do a public gallop over fences with a couple of his stablemates at Punchestown or Fairyhouse racecourse similar to what Elliot did with Don Cossack/No More Heroes to advertise his well-being and form.
Report impossible123 March 8, 2018 6:50 PM GMT
Sizing John looks a goner; he's been matched at 20 here.
Report impossible123 March 8, 2018 7:00 PM GMT
Confirmed, he's been ruled out for next week's cheltenham.
Report impossible123 March 16, 2018 3:44 PM GMT
Might Bite was outstayed despite going the better two out; will redeem in the King George, I firmly believe.
Report impossible123 March 26, 2018 9:06 PM BST
Sizing John would not be seen until nearer x'mas time, if recovery is on scheduled. His 1st race back will be key with respect to his 2019 Gold Cup participation, but I'm hopeful.

My present two against the field are the same two that contested the 2018 renewal from start to finish ie Native River and Might Bite, but hoping for a different outcome on a probable change of going.
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