Champion Stakes Ascot (21st Oct)

A bit of activity for Cracksman (here), and he's firmed into 3. Nevertheless, I'd not be backing him over this 10f trip - he needs 12f and more to show his best, I firmly believe. As such, I've laid her against the likes of Winter, Barney Roy, Brametot, Decorated Knight, Poets Word or even Jack Hobbs.

As such, i've laid her against the likes of ............

Cracksman is a colt

Thank-you Andrew, could be impending old age, nevertheless the objective remains. On the other hand, 3/1 for Enable for 2018 Arc could be an astute "investment" especially if the 3yr olds colts turn out to be much of a muchness (again).

A bit like saying if Enable wins next year's Arc she was a good bet. The 3/1 is NOW so the whole point is whether she's a good bet NOW, not after "the 3yr olds colts turn out to be much of a muchness (again)".

He really is the biggest numpty poster on here and actually seems to be getting worse rather than learning from his mistakes.

On the other hand, 3/1 for Enable for 2018 Arc could be an astute "investment" especially if the 3yr olds colts turn out to be much of a muchness (again).

I'm a massive Enable fan, but I wouldn't be rushing in to take 3/1 today even after confirmation she will run, you will probably get the same price next April and a lot can happen in that time. It will also be much tougher for her, no significant WFA allowance, in fact she will be giving 4lbs and 7lbs to 3 year old colts and fillies respectively, and we won't know how good they really are until May/June. I doubt she will race so early next season, there are not many G1 12f races for her in GB anyway (only 2 up to end of July) although she could go for the Eclipse, or even travel abroad. Mind you, if you ask me if she will win the Arc again in 2018, I would say yes of course, but the response would be driven by emotion, not hard cash

You could be right 'Andrew in Sweden'. I might just do a token treble (prior) with a few shorties this weekend and Breeders Cup at Del Mar. But no Cracksman!

The grapevine was correct...Cracksman would be heading this way. If the ground is good or fast side of good next weekend I'd lay Cracksman (with impunity, I hope) over this distance. Could it be another Gosden/Jack Hobbs/Prince Of Wales horsey faux pas?

While I agree that on fast ground Cracksman looks very vulnerable to pacier horses it looks like there may be a serious amount of rain on Friday/Saturday so if that arrives and it turns soft then Cracksman will be very short (6/4 to 2/1) imo as it won't suit most of the others. Ulysses, maybe even Barney Roy if goes really bad, probably won't run and Barney and Winter might be re-routed to the QE11.

I've taken the 100/30 now with a view to lay off. If the rain doesn't arrive I should still be able to lay off for at worst a very small loss.

Cracksman is still in, but Winter is out...Del Mar bound perhaps.

Ulysses looks a no brainer, unless the Arc has taken its toll on the horse - or is it the ground that's the worry?

I'd agree Ulysses is nailed on with the most likely challenger being Brametot if he does not idle at the off. But Cracksman, unlikely on good ground even (IF) he turns up!

Yeah surprised Cracksman is so short given the doubts over the ground and more importantly in my eyes the trip

after York stoute indicated ully  would go straight to del mar race owner wanted to win etc,since then he,s been entered,running in everything but the great north run,is stoute still about 1 from 20 on current form

10% of prize money probably helps make the decision to run here easier plus I reckon this is also an easier race to win than the BC Turf where he'd have to face his nemesis ie Highland Reel (again) who whipped his bum last year, fairly and squarely. But is he a definite runner though? The 'nrnb' on offer are from two rather dodgy betting entities.

Oct 16, 2017 -- 2:02PM, 1st time poster wrote:

after York stoute indicated ully

after York stoute indicated ully  would go straight to del mar race owner wanted to win etc,since then he,s been entered,running in everything but the great north run,is stoute still about 1 from 20 on current form

Good point, 4 more beaten today - Veracious in the fillies maiden at Newmarket on Friday the only winner for the stable in over 2 weeks.

14 runners going off 8/1 or shorter beaten a cumulative total of 118.25 lengths since 4 October. Not good.

Plenty of money on the lay side for Ulysses so I would suggest he is a definite intended runner and will be declared on Thursday.
Deserves to be hot favourite on form unless the heavens really open - forecast is still very unclear with the only possibility of severe rain due on the day as things stand.

Stoute has said all year the Breeders Cup was the number 1 aim but I guess the 10f/12f G1 races have looked so weak it's hard not to keep going to the well. Even his placed efforts in the KG and Arc have won him plenty of money and beeing beaten by Enable will not have affected his reputation for when he goes to stud, if anything enhanced it.

Brametot definitely looks the sensible e.w bet at around 10/1 (b365) - no problem with him startig in the Arc, ran very prominently and then met inteference on the rail about 2f out which probably cost him a few places.

Good morning Uncle. Common sense tells me this lies between Ulysses, Poets Word and Highland Reel. According to recent results, the 3 year old colts have little chance. Ulysses beat them in the Arc over a trip too far in my opinion so 10f should be ideal. Poets Word beat them in Ireland, I thought he may have benefited from racing wide but I thought that last year about Almanzour and Found yet both confirmed it in this race next time. And Highland Reel has the best form but is very ground dependent.
What will make the running? My guess is either Highland Reel or Cracksman who are both dependent on stamina when compared with the others who all would prefer this trip or are hold up horses anyway.
If the rain stays away and the ground remains good to firm then Highland Reel has an outstanding chance of making the running at his own pace and quickening up the well drained home straight. He is a fresh horse having not run since the King George.
If they do get significant rain then the Stoute horses look to hold the key but both are hold up horses. I think a slow pace will suit Ulysses better.
What staggers me is that I am discussing winning a Group 1 race by Ulysses or Poets Word. That is how bad things have gotten. And I did back him to win the Eclipse ffs.
I'm only here for a couple of days so on the betting front I have backed Cracksman at 7/2 to cover just a bit more than my stake, Highland Reel and Cliffs of Moher, both at 16s to win a nice bit. I had to back Cracksman because he has done me so very well this year and I hope he has improved as JG says he has but I am not holding my breath. If Highland Reel doesn't run he will probably have to make his own running which may not be ideal.
I've backed Highland Reel because if the ground stays good or better then this trip and the possibility of an easy lead gives him an outstanding chance. I know the BC is in 2 weeks but is not over raced by any means.
I have backed Cliffs of Moher because he cost me in the Irish Champion where he was ridden the correct way but I thought he was unlucky in running and he is not over raced either. On a line through Cracksman he is well over priced.   
Good luck everyone.

GL Brig.

Obviously on Derby form CoM would have a great chance vis-a-vis Cracksman but I just can't have him after his last few efforts, though there have been a few shocks in the race since it switched to Ascot and if it rains all day anything could happen, though I think Cracksman will be hard to beat if it does.

What staggers me is that I am discussing winning a Group 1 race by Ulysses or Poets Word. That is how bad things have gotten. And I did back him to win the Eclipse ffs

Probably the least staggering thing about discussion on the race. If you'd have given Ulysses any credit, now that would've been staggering.

Sat on a thorn Figgis? How are you? Of course I see it took five runs before you backed him and that was when the form was already there so your confidence was obviously high. Considering you think the 3 year olds colts this year are not up to scratch what do you think is the best older horse Ulysses has beaten this year?
I can't help it if I go into the season hoping for the best but not blind enough to recognise the worst.

I see it took five runs before you backed him and that was when the form was already

Yes the form was already there, so I was very fortunate the likes of you "couldn't touch him" at York and prices were had between 7/2 and 9/2

I can't help it if I go into the season hoping for the best but not blind enough to recognise the worst.

That is all that is wrong with these statements in a nutshell. First we have "That is how bad things have gotten" and now we have "the worst".

There has been some fair criticism about the modern tendency to overuse superlatives when describing performances that were simply good. I agree. However, at the extreme opposite end of the scale we have old farts stuck in the past who when seeing something of average standard for the class, average meaning the norm, it is somehow described as "bad" and "the worst". This is just as dumb.

So how would you compare Ulysses, winner of the Eclipse and International, to the average standard of winner? How many pounds or lengths behind the norm?

I had already backed him at 8s in the Eclipse and had no intention to give any money back.
Just answer the question Figgis. What do you think is the best older horse Ulysses has beaten this year? Not too difficult for you is it?

I think I remember you telling me it is not the name of the race that matters. Changing colours again to suit yourself?

Not too difficult for you is it?

Not difficult at all, just like most of your questions it's irrelevant in the scheme of things. The answer is Highland Reel.


I think I remember you telling me it is not the name of the race that matters. Changing colours again to suit yourself?

No idea what this nonsense is. I asked you to answer how far Ulysses was behind the normal standard of winner for those Gp1 races. Therefore we are obviously not talking about Gp1 races that were of a poor standard.

What a ridiculous but totally expected comment with reference to Highland Reel Figgis.
And that is correct only you just never remember the angles you try to come from.

It will be massively interesting reading you next season when this year's three year olds run. Considering potentially the best 2 year old is US Navy Flag, Gustav Klimt and Expert Eye. I will look forward to that.

You are obviously relating to the King Georg where Ulysses beat Idaho by a fast diminishing three parts. That form has been significantly boosted by Idaho. Absolutely top class.

What a ridiculous but totally expected comment with reference to Highland Reel Figgis

Ridiculous how?

It will be massively interesting reading you next season when this year's three year olds run. Considering potentially the best 2 year old is US Navy Flag, Gustav Klimt and Expert Eye. I will look forward to that

I'll judge next year's 3yos when they're 3yos. Unlike some I don't think I know the absolute extent of a horse's ability over its career after a few runs as a 2yo. None of which has anything whatsoever to do with this race. So after your criticism for failing to answer a question how about you answer the question posed to you, instead of once again appearing a hypocrite.

You are obviously relating to the King Georg

Obviously

That form has been significantly boosted by Idaho. Absolutely top class.

Just as I said, irrelevant.

Back to normal Figgis. Arguing with yourself in an empty room. You must have too much time on your hands.

So how would you compare Ulysses, winner of the Eclipse and International, to the average standard of winner? How many pounds or lengths behind the norm?

Figgis's report before the Eclipse Stakes, which I totally agree with.

Just a small bet for me on Decorated Knight. I see him as more of a Gp2 horse really and believe that the wfa is an advantage to the 3yos but they've looked substandard so far and none of them look nailed on even to run to form. After having quite a busy time of things there's no guarantee DK will run to form either but I think his price allows for that.

That is how you rated the Eclipse Figgis. Decorated Knight has won 3 Group 1's this year, more than any other older horse, and you only rate him Group 2 (and I agree with that) and you reckoned the 3 year olds look sub standard, (and I agree with that).

Stop arguing with yourself in an empty room and tell us what you think will win the Champion Stakes ffs.

That is how you rated the Eclipse Figgis

That is how I rated it before the race. Just more idiotic posts.

You may think your post was idiotic but in fact it was pretty accurate. Here you have a horse that had just won 2 Group 1's yet you only consider him to be a Group 2 horse. That is facing up to the facts but unfortunately, it doesn't fit in with your standard argumentative stance. I don't think DK is a Gr1 horse and I bet anything his owner and trainer cannot believe their luck. That is my opinion. You have your opinion but you cannot abide someone else having an opinion. So stop being ridiculous and childish, grow up and tell us what you think will win the Champion Stakes and why.

Here you have a horse that had just won 2 Group 1's yet you only consider him to be a Group 2 horse

Yes. That horse was Decorated Knight, NOT Ulysses so is nothing but more sidetracking on your part.

tell us what you think will win the Champion Stakes and why

How about you answering the question posed numerous times to you instead?

Personally, I don't think Cracksman is a Gr 1 horse. Group 2 at best I think. I didn't think he would be good enough to win the Derby and I think he only came close because of the quality of the opposition. Waldgeist ran just behind him in Ireland and was beaten in a Gr3 last time out. Cracksman may improve but he has to show it. Something he has not done yet.

About the ridiculous question you are talking about. First Figgis tell me what on earth previous winners of a race has anything to do with this seasons winners? If I even refer to last seasons form you go nuts. Do you really think every horse that wins a Gr1 race is a Group 1 horse?
Oh! I forgot. Decorated Knight won 2 Group 1's yet you think he is only a Gr2 horse. Silly me.
The older horses this season are a pretty poor bunch along with the middle distance 3 year old colts. That is my opinion. You may think differently well that is your right just as it is mine to have my opinion. Much as it grieves you. Live with it.

Ulysses is the horse I like, already been well backed, with the race full of this years 3yo crop running, that
will make the race more interesting. might go in a few multiples on weekend, of the rest barney roy could run well.
which horse will get the best path through the race and be best suited to the ground conditions and the fittest horse on the day? suppose that will be the winner. gl all

First Figgis tell me what on earth previous winners of a race has anything to do with this seasons winners?

So when you say "What staggers me is that I am discussing winning a Group 1 race by Ulysses or Poets Word. That is how bad things have gotten.",what exactly are you comparing with?

Ulysses ended last season beaten in a Gr3 off 111 by Chain of Daisies rated 103. Chain of Daisies is now rated 106. Not the sort of form I would put up as a potential multiple Group 1 winner when the season started.
Decorated Knight ended last season rated 109 having won a Gr3 beating Portage rated 111. And you have him down as a Group 2 horse.

I didn't have Ulysses down as a Gr1 horse in waiting and I am surprised that he has picked up the races he has. There are two possible explanations for this. Either, as you clearly believe, Ulysses has progressed into a proper Gr1 horse or as I believe he has benefitted from weak opposition and is really only a borderline G2/Gr1 horse.

brigust is limato a proper group 1 horse or just borderline g2/g1?

Ulysses ended last season beaten in a Gr3 off 111 by Chain of Daisies rated 103. Chain of Daisies is now rated 106. Not the sort of form I would put up as a potential multiple Group 1 winner when the season started

This has been discussed before. You never fail to try to hold down a 4yo+ horse's form by stating its limitations as a 3yo. You, however, are in a minority, as most people who follow racing agree that generally horses don't fully mature until the age of 4, at least, and some improve much more than others. Also some yards have a better record than others when it comes to late maturing animals.

borderline G2/Gr1 horse

How many pounds/lengths would that put him behind an average Gp1 winner in your view? And which horses would you say were average Gp1 winners?

With Cracksman and Ulysses so high up in the market I think the market is pricing without Highland Reel (HR) otherwise HR would spank Ulysses (again) just as he'd done in the PoW on good/good to firm ground; Ulysses being the most likely winner (without HR) says a lot about the quality of the field; Cracksman is a big 'lay' for me over this trip and (if) good/good to firm ground. I just hope Gosden if (by) running Cracksman here does not suffer the same fate as he did with Jack Hobbs who returned post the PoW with an injury, and is still out.

The 3yr olds colts are much of a muchness similarly the present field of this race; Almanzor, Minding and Found (my nemesis in 2016 Arc) have been sorely missed this season.

Roadrunner I think Limato is a Gr1 horse but only when conditions suit in what is a very strong division. He started his 4 year old campaign off 119 and his 5 year old campaign off 122. Unlike Decorated Knight and Ulysses who state their 4 year old careers off 107 and 111.

Latest from AOB: Highland Reel and Cliffs Of Moher are likely runners, but a decision on where Churchill runs (also engaged in the QE2) will be left as late as possible - they are keeping an eye on the weather.

The current crop of 3 yr old colts may not be superstars, but there are a couple that could achieve far more as 4 yr olds, namely Cracksman and Brametot (assuming he's kept in training). Both are relatively lightly raced, so could improve, and contrary to opinion, I don't think the going will be a significant issue for either.

Cracksman doesn't strike me as a 10f colt, even though he won the Derby trial, but if the ground turned really soft, it would suit him more than others. I think he's better than his form may suggest.

I really like Brametot in the race, and he actually has a lot going for him. The distance is probably ideal (won the French Derby over the trip) has good form on good and soft ground, there are 'reasonable' excuses for his last 2 defeats (wouldn't have got close to Enable though) the course will not be an issue and French trainers do well in the race (4 wins in last 11 years, and could have been 6 if Frankel and Farhh weren't around). I will be playing Brametot EW on the day, or day before, but I have a couple of small win bets at 10 and 11 on here already. Good luck to all that play.

Hi Andrew. I have an invite to the big house up the road tomorrow, close to Ascot, must be something to do with the date, then it's back to France to work until around Christmas. I have looked at Brametot but I really couldn't find any way he to see him winning. So that's a positive at least. Take care and have fun.

Brametot is also 3lb worse off with Ulysses from their Arc run

Forecasts still showing serious band of rain arriving early Saturday and very high winds possible - just hope it doesn't cause a potentially unsafe environment and cause the meeting to be called off.

If you fancy a soft ground horse then I'd suggest betting it today as there are sure to be loads of non runners after the declaration stage and you will be hit by Rule 4's. That's been my strategy in all the G1 races anyway.

Good morning Uncle. It is raining now and the forecast is not great. However tomorrow, before declaration stage, the CoC will have to decide whether or not to switch to the inner track where they haven't watered and the going yesterday was good to firm in places. Otherwise, the possibility of non runners will be greater. Interesting scenario.

Well that makes any ante post bet impossible really

Certainly is an interesting conundrum - at declaration time the main course is likely to be good-to-soft but obviously the forecast means it may go heavy?
I've basically placed all my bets for the meeting on the assumption of soft ground or worse - hope I don't get scuppered by a bloody CoC.

Hi Laurie,

Welcome back, short term at least. Sadly the French don't allow us to use BF or the forum as you obviously know, and with respect to the latter, it's crazy, but never mind.

On to Brametot, on a strict line of form (and pointed out by the bloob under our posts) he should not beat Ulysses, but he was trapped on the inside at Chantilly and didn't get the best of runs, although only has to find 2.5L and the shorter distance will be in his favour.

I'm in UK this weekend, but I doubt I will go to Ascot, all the premier tickets are sold out anyway. Good luck with your bets and have a nice run up to Xmas in France.

Well the Saturday forecast, which was looking biblical on this mornings forecast, is now much drier according to the BBC weather that was updated at 12.37.
The heavy rain on that front moves to the west and north of London with the south actually quite bright but with really strong (drying?) winds.

Can't see them selecting the inside course now and I expect it will be mainly good-to-soft so should be a fair playing field.

Hi Andrew I'm off early tomorrow so it will probably around Christmas before I am back. There are ways to get on here from France but it isn't easy and I really do not have the time. I went to Windsor Castle today, my birthday, and had a blast.
Obviously I can follow things on the internet and I have a friend to put a bet on for me if I wish. This Saturday I like Hydrangea, Carravagio and The Tin Man and at the Breeders Cup Lady Aurelia, Highland Reel and Queens Trust. It isn't the same when you cannot be up to speed on a day to day basis but I would hate to see them win without having a few quid on. The day to day stuff doesn't interest me.
Take care and I will be back around Christmas and hopefully not poorer.

I think you are right about the ground Uncle and I hope it is good at worst. Have fun.

Market on here and oddschecker suggesting Ulysses won't be declared
Cracksman already into around 9/4 - happy days.

Ulysses is out - not declared; what a way to treat followers/punters of this horse?; no inclination or whisper the horse would be withdrawn at the final decs.

Will now 'lay' Cracksman, with impunity, I hope.

A bit of activity for Cracksman (here), and he's firmed into 3. Nevertheless, I'd not be backing him over this 10f trip - he needs 12f and more to show his best, I firmly believe. As such, I've laid her against the likes of Winter, Barney Roy, Brametot, Decorated Knight, Poets Word or even Jack Hobbs

This suggested you already had, at a bigger price than he is now.

(If) the ground is no worse than good I think Highland Reel at 8/1 offers tremendous value given his credential and lacked-off of the others eg Barney Roy (stamina limitation); Brametot (proximity to Arc run); Cracksman (inadequate trip); Poets Word (Gp3 class).

More incoherent waffle.

Ground now officially soft with more rain to come.

This is how the going situation was described yesterday

The official going remains the same with the Straight Course registering a Going Stick reading of 6.8, which translates as Good and Good to Soft in places, while the round course is Good to Soft and Good in places coming at 6.2.

When Frankel won the going stick readings were 6.9 on the straight course and 5.6 on the round, the going was described as 'soft (heavy in places on round)'. When Farhh won the readings were 7.2 straight 6.4 round with a description of 'soft'.

This is Stickels' excuse today

"It was the only decision we could make at the time because we had to make a decision before declarations, so that everybody knew which track we were on," he said.

"At that point, I had to consider what was available and one track was mainly good to soft and good, while the other was good to firm and firm, so I'm very happy with the decision.

"It was the only one that could be made at that time but had the ground been soft, it would have been a different story."

Comparing those readings there is no way the ground was only 'good to soft' at the time, it had to have already been soft. Stickels bottled it. Pathetic.

Agreed Figgis. Beggars belief we are going to be holding such a top class day of racing on heavy ground when there was a good chance of it being on good ground. Why dangle it as an option if it's never going to be used? Could have watered the inner track on Friday night if no rain had come - which was extremely unlikely. I'm not going to ignore the day now but my interest level as a punter has waned considerably.

Could have watered the inner track on Friday night if no rain had come

Howellsy, exactly what I was thinking. He seems to have no problem with watering at any other time but apparently this wasn't even an option?!

The Champion Stakes was switched to the inner course last year and this was the following statement

Ruth Quinn commented: “The BHA directive for Flat racing is always to race on the best possible ground available (aiming for good to firm)"

The directive has gone out the window this time.

Apologies, should have said the race was due to be switched last year but the switch wasn't necessary in the end. Nevertheless, the directive should still stand.

The present soft ground could have gone against Highland Reel and very possibly Barney Roy (stamina). I do not believe Poets Word is a Gp 1 horse, and the trip is on the short side for Cracksman despite probable soft ground. Thus, one could do worse than side with Brametot provided his exertion in the Arc has not taken its toll, I guess.

Backed Brametot each way.

a cracking race on paper and a good betting heat...

i like others cannot believe the track saved in case of swamp ground isn't being used and once again the meeting will be run on yes a swamp, it is hard to believe someone came up with a great idea then never used it, it just doesn't make any sense

anyway the ground has gone to soft so tricky to have a strong opinion

pace looks assured with maverick wave, cliffs of moher and maybe highland reel but i think they may just look after highland reel here with the breeders cup in mind, i actually see cracksman being very close to the pace here

much has been written about cracksman...i can't really say i have ever liked him but i have decided to scrub his early season form when he was clearly immature, hitting flat spots in his races and essentially looking one paced and a tripless type in my book...anyway his comeback at york was much more like it but that race is still hard to access with the stoute horse doing no running at all and venice beach who is just a fair yardstick in behind, it has to be remembered venice beach was at least fit and maybe he did run his race so maybe i have been a tad harsh on the race and cracksman did after all still bolt up...

i still have a feeling he loved that long straight at york though and he is essentially just a galloper who may always need a long straight in which to really extend, i'm still learning about him but still think he isn't that quick so maybe forcing tactics may suit him and he may well end up a prominent runner down the road, i certainly feel they will make use of him today and with stamina likely to be at a premium today i see no reason why he won't be made full use of, his problem will come from a horse with a turn of foot but i don't by that the trip will be a problem if ridden on the speed...

anyway his price is short here and as much as i feel frankie may sit on the speed i have to watch him go do it...he comes here in prime form after a payed workout in france, he didn't look slow that day off of just a medium gallop but frankie had to ask him at the top of straight and the flat spot was still there, however inside the furlong he was really extending and he is getting better...he should be a tad longer price but i can't say i'd want to lay him and if he does sit on the speed here which i expect he will, he could be very tough to pass if frankie gets him rolling early enough

i have barney roy top rated here by quite a way as well... he is another improving type i just wish they would educate him to settle but although i was harsh on doyle at york the horse really just jumped from the gate to well from a wide draw and was just choke out with the rider, he ran a tremendous race though forcing the pace at a good gallop, the fact he was still in there pitching with a furlong to run was a top class performance from the horse...he was getting the better of churchill who along with ulysses had had a perfect trip but by the time he was putting churchill away ulysses who had sat well out of the duel that was occurring up front he was a sitting duck to ulysses...

anyway it was a performance out of the top draw for me and i have bet him here...i have always thought he would handle ground with cut and i don't by the stamina issue, his problem is dropping the bit and when he learns to settle he really will get the trip just fine... i was going to have a decent bet but have reigned it in because of the ground but i still like him...he should be able to work out a good trip and he will be dropped in today for sure

i had a small bet on brametot in france but the rider was intent in giving him a poor ride up the rail he may of placed but as much as he was slightly impeded, the race still exposed him class wise however against these horses he still has his chance and he is a danger to all here...i have saved on him and he should be cherry ripe for this after not being fully extended in the arc, it has to be remembered though he did jump well that day from the gate and really did have a perfect trip so he didn't have a lot of excuses for not finishing closer, i'm not sure he is that good if i'm being honest but he maybe good enough here

poets word comes here after a good preparation in the irish champion just getting mugged late on...i certainly respect him here but am expecting the 3 year olds to step forward, he hasn't had a tough season so he should certainly run his race...can he step forward again? maybe so we will see but 7/1 is tight

a cracking race

I'm still remembering Brametot's French Guineas win as one of my favourite runs of the season, and if held up off a decent pace he should be a real threat late on. Poet's Word is progressing nicely and may be able to run his race from a more prominent position. I have these two as my most likely winners with Barney Roy not sure to stay on this ground and Cliffs of Moher running out of excuses, although in fairness he was hardly to blame last time. Highland Reel might yet be a threat if they go a decent gallop. I reckon they went too slow in the KG so he was outpaced before staying on again. I would make Cracksman 4th fav at best here and will be opposing him with as many of the above as the market will me allow up to evens.

If Cracksman wins here on the rating I have him without improving then I'd have him as the worst winner since the Ascot switch. Nevertheless, I still think he's the most likely winner. I have his Voltigeur win a 9lbs improvement on hs Derby run and if he'd have been capable of that at Epsom he'd have been a comfortable winner. That still wouldn't make him anything special but I'm struggling to see what can beat him here. Highland Reel is the best horse in the race for me but these conditions look unlikely to show him at his best. Maybe this appalling ground will beat Cracksman but at the risk of chucking more money down this watery hole I've backed him.

Well done those who got 7/2, incredible.

unclepuncle
16 Oct 17 09:54

While I agree that on fast ground Cracksman looks very vulnerable to pacier horses it looks like there may be a serious amount of rain on Friday/Saturday so if that arrives and it turns soft then Cracksman will be very short (6/4 to 2/1) imo as it won't suit most of the others. Ulysses, maybe even Barney Roy if goes really bad, probably won't run and Barney and Winter might be re-routed to the QE11.

I've taken the 100/30 now with a view to lay off. If the rain doesn't arrive I should still be able to lay off for at worst a very small loss.

I love it when a plan comes together. Especially when I123 has laid the arse off it.:D

wd cracksman backers, there was a lot of frankel fans who have been crying out for a british group 1 win for frankel. nice write up figgis

I liked him a lot in the Spring after what I thought was an exceptional time on debut but the horse had seemed to have certain limitations exposed since then. I certainly didn't expect that.

that is arguably the best performance on turf this season and the owner must be cursing he never ran in the arc he clearly loves cut in the ground as well, so not running in the dante probably also cost him the derby...wd winners that backed there opinion, quite surprised you are so pleased uncle i'd be sick laying off a 3/1 shot for a point profit

The win of Cracksman looked imperious however, I might question the validity of it eg Highland Reel (unsuitable ground/3rd); Brametot (held up/lethargic/Arc/6th); Barney Roy (held up/stamina exposed/soft ground/2nd last). The result was fairly evident once Cracksman (no stamina limitation) was stalking the pacesetters (and going swimmingly well), with Brametot and Barney Roy well behind; Recoletos and Desert Encounter came from way back to pass tired horses to finish 4th and 5th respectively.

On today's performance I'd still pick Enable over Cracksman for the 2018 King George and Arc, all things being equal.

If Cracksman continues his rapid improvement he could be too good for Enable next year. Gosden has always said he is a horse for next year.

harry callaghan
21 Oct 17 18:07
quite surprised you are so pleased uncle i'd be sick laying off a 3/1 shot for a point profit

Harry, that was always the attention and given how much I had on 10/3 I was never intending to let it ride (also got a little extra on at 3/1 on Thursday morning just before final decs) - just happy my assessment of what would happen (non runners and the market) was spot on. A large free bet at 11/8 was quite acceptable and stress free.

^intention

JG stated last week that if Cracksman had ran in the Arc, he would have finished in the front 3. After yesterdays stroll, he may want to revise that. I'm a massive Enable fan so i'm glad he didn't run, it would have been close, and Cracksman might even have won. Their respective race shedule is going to be interesting next year, they will almost certainly meet at some stage, which one will Frankie choose.