Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (21st Oct)

He could make a miraculous recovery of form but Churchill shows all the signs of as precocious 2yo who managed to stay ahead of the pack until the Guineas but has been overtaken by several rivals since.

I think Churchill won both Guineas but was overwhelmed by the heat in the SJP at Ascot. I also think the ground was against him in the Juddmonte; I believe he is no Gp1 10f horse either despite finishing infront of Barney Roy when 2nd to Ulysses in the Juddmonte (10f); he'd not have won the Irish Champion Stakes even if Moore had ridden a more judicious race, which will be corrected in the QE2 (8f) at Ascot on Champions Day - he'd have a favourite's chance despite the possible presence of Ribchester/Barney Roy, Al Wukair, La Bravido, etc.

Ribchester running his bizarre race on shocking ground at Goodwood has meant he has been given a massive price here.

11/4 is absolutely madness.  Should be 6/4 or 13/8 this close to the race.

The thing with that Churchill rating, whether anyone agrees with it or not, is it will have been achieved earlier in the year with a chunk added on for wfa in the assumption he would progress throughout the season.

Ribchester looks the bet of the meeting for me at the current prices

I was impressed enough with Ribchester's Queen Anne performance to believe the horse is all he was last year and his run in the Susses again suggested he has all the ability - sheer class getting him so close to winning at Goodwood. I would have liked for the horse to have been given a break since then but he's only had 4 runs in the last 6 months so wouldn't say he has been overraced.

So in one post Ribchester would be a 'near certainty' on last years form against Minding, yet Churchill would have  a favorites chance if he was in his Guineas form?

I am on Beat The Bank. His last 2 runs were a revelation and he looked to have a lot more in reserve.

Thunder Snow, Ribchester, Beat The Bank, Al Wukair are drawn in (15), (13), (12) and (11) respectively with Churchill in (1) - any draw advantage?

For me, Churchill is a horse that up to now hasn't trained on from 2 to 3. Even though he won the Guineas he hasn't improved at all on his National Stakes win last year and his wins in both Guineas were due to a lack of seriously good opposition. Since those wins it hasn't been a matter of the others catching up with him but him actually going backwards instead. There looked to be signs of him returning to form at York, where he wasn't far from his best, but it was a really tame effort last time out and although he may have been a little unlucky I wasn't at all impressed.

When I watched Beat The Bank win last time I had pound signs in my eyes as I thought back to the same yard's Selkirk winning a Listed race easily in a fast time then going on to win this race at a massively generous price. Unfortunately I don't rate this performance as highly. Even though I think a strict time comparison with the other races on the day is misleading and more than one allowance is necessary I can't rate him any higher than a place prospect unless his main opponent runs below par.

I have Ribchester 6lbs clear of the field and it's all about what form he's in after a long season. I wasn't surprised he ran below par at Goodwood after two big efforts and laid him. He ran much better last time without having to run to his best. The ground is described as soft on the straight course but even if it's slower than that I don't think it would be a problem as when he won the Lockinge it was borderline heavy in the races over further than 6f, in my view. My guess is it's a coin flip whether he can run to peak form again so he's a bet.

On the one hand I could never have had Persuasive winning this, yet I did have a little nibble on Nathra @ 90/1 so now I'm kicking myself. :(

If only AOB had opted to run Roly Poly here instead of at Del Mar next month he'd probably have broken BF Gp1 win record by now -Roly Poly easily beat Persuasive in the Sun Chariot.

Once again the AOB's fillies this year eg Winter and Rhododendron (both 8f/10f); Roly Poly (8f) and Hydrangea (12f) have outperformed their male stablemates, and are horses to follow next season. The colts, sadly, were much of a muchness (again) similar to last year.

I think it was a mediocre QE2 renewal. The winner was comprehensively beaten by Qemah and Alice Spring last season, and had every chance against Roly Poly who led from the outset.